March 4, 2022 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

On March 4:
1681: England’s King Charles II granted a charter to William Penn for an area of land that later became Pennsylvania.  Go to article »
1789: U.S. Constitution went into effect.
1933: In the midst of the Great Depression, Franklin D. Roosevelt is inaugurated as the 32^nd US president, and later he led the country out of the Depression and to victory in World War II.  He almost immediately started pushing through Congress a series of programs and projects called the New Deal which accomplished worker protection, public works programs and individual safety nets.

Antonio Vivaldi, composer, b.1675.

Pete Davidson may head to space on Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin flight.  Speaking on behalf of all “Saturday Night Live” fans… we need a skit from space. That’s not too much to ask, right? 

Brad Pitt is a stylish assassin in action-packed ‘Bullet Train’ trailer.  The words “Brad Pitt” and “action movie” go together like peanut butter and jelly — a perfect pair.

Just one drink a day can shrink your brain, a study has shown.

For sale: one (1) abandoned Canadian village. (h/t Scott Kominers)

Every movie Batman, ranked (wrongly, I might add). (h/t Ellen Kominers)

The best new restaurants in Austin, as chosen by top chefs.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

The northern lights, or the aurora borealis, appear over Vestrahorn mountain in south-east Iceland, noted for its two distinctive peaks and proximity to the Jökulsárlón glacier lagoon and East Fjords
CREDIT: Owen Humphreys/PA

Artworks installed above baggage carousels at the new international arrivals area at Sea-Tac airport
CREDIT: Ken Lambert/AP

Polar bear twins Kaja and Skadi, born in November, appear in front of zoo visitors for the first time
CREDIT: Bernd Wuestneck/AP

Market Closes for March 4^th, 2022

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1957, Standard & Poor’s Corp. introduced a new stock index, which it initially called the “Standard ‘500’ Index.” Now known as the S&P 500, the index uses a “scientific weighting formula” that enables investors to measure the movement in the total value of most of America’s major stocks.
Canada
By Geoffrey Morgan
(Bloomberg) — Canadian oil and mining stocks surged Friday amid a rally in commodity prices that sent oil, gold, copper and zinc prices higher.
The S&P/TSX Composite opened 0.3% higher at 21,306.34 in Toronto, led by energy and materials stocks.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.2%.
Sleep Country Canada Holdings Inc. had the largest percentage increase, rising 9.6%.
In early trading, 120 of 239 shares rose, while 117 fell; 6 of 11 sectors were higher, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 0.4%
* So far this week, the index rose 1%
* The index advanced 18% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.2% below its 52-week high on Nov. 16, 2021 and 18.7% above its low on March 4, 2021
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.1 on a trailing basis and 14.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.39t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 12.69% compared with 14.29% in the previous session and the average of 13.59% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
* Energy | 54.0280| 1.6| 28/4
* Materials | 36.6841| 1.3| 40/14
* Industrials | 15.7093| 0.6| 11/19
* Communication Services | 8.9795| 0.8| 6/1
* Utilities | 7.2362| 0.8| 14/2
* Consumer Staples | 2.1980| 0.3| 7/4
* Health Care | -1.2983| -0.9| 1/7
* Real Estate | -1.8016| -0.3| 6/14
* Consumer Discretionary | -8.0083| -1.2| 3/11
* Information Technology | -19.4840| -1.4| 1/14
* Financials | -37.0053| -0.5| 3/25
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
* Canadian Natural Resources | 24.7300| 4.2| 19.1| 41.3
* Nutrien | 16.7700| 3.8| 132.4| 24.3
* Canadian Pacific | 8.0340| 1.3| 14.7| 4.7
* Bank of Montreal | -6.0480| -0.9| -28.4| 7.5
* Bank of Nova Scotia| -6.0880| -0.8| 45.4| 4.0
* Shopify | -9.9260| -1.6| -40.9| -54.1

US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks fell, while the dollar climbed with bonds as concerns that war risks are intensifying roiled global markets.
Oil topped $115 a barrel on news the U.S. is considering a ban on imports of Russian crude for its invasion of Ukraine.
The S&P 500 dropped for the fourth time in five days, with commodities having their biggest weekly surge since 1974 as Russia’s growing isolation is choking off a major source of materials — sparking fears of prolonged shortages and accelerating inflation.
The White House is assessing if an oil ban would actually hurt the Russian economy or if crude would simply go to other markets and drive up gasoline prices.
The greenback hit the highest since 2020 while 10-year yields slumped to about 1.7%.
Europe’s common currency approached a key support level that goes back to the euro’s inception in 1999.
S&P Dow Jones Indices will remove Russian stocks from its gauges, joining other global index compilers in shunning the nation.
Three major Russia-focused ETFs were halted on Friday after the New York Stock Exchange took action based on what it said was “regulatory concern.”
A top nuclear official called for talks with Russia and Ukraine after the government in Kyiv said Vladimir Putin’s troops triggered a blaze at Europe’s largest atomic power complex in a shelling attack.
Economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. said the war could hurt Russia’s economy as much as its devastating 1998 default.
Oil could reach $150 a barrel in the next three months if Russian crude continues to be largely shunned, said Damien Courvalin, head of energy research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Higher commodity prices have the potential to depress growth and stoke inflation, creating a dilemma for central bankers worldwide as they weigh the need to increase borrowing costs against the risk of stunting the economic recovery.
Jerome Powell’s push to limit the Federal Reserve’s liftoff this month to a quarter percentage point was bolstered by unexpectedly stagnant wages amid strong hiring seen in February’s jobs report.
While employers added 678,000 to payrolls and unemployment fell to 3.8%, average hourly earnings were little changed from January.
That suggests central bankers aren’t facing an immediate wage-price spiral similar to the 1970s — which reduces the urgency to take bolder steps toward curbing inflation. 
Comments:
* “The market’s focus is really not on payrolls,” Jeffrey Rosenberg, a senior portfolio manager at BlackRock Inc., told Bloomberg Television. “The market is focused on the implications of the Russian invasion, and that implication is a negative supply shock — negative to growth, positive to inflation.”
* “The tough part for the markets right now, and this is the reason we’re not talking about the payrolls report, is that this commodity price-pressure that was supposed to abate is not abating,” Anastasia Amoroso, chief investment strategist at iCapital, told Bloomberg Television. “We still have another risk of supply-chain disruptions. This makes it a pretty tough landscape for the market.”
* “Because of the tragic events in Russia and Ukraine, global stocks are currently being priced based on uncertainty, rather than known financial information, which is what traditionally drives stocks,” said Julian Koski, chief investment officer at New Age Alpha. 

Fed Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said the central bank should increase interest rates to close to its “neutral” setting this year, implying as many as seven quarter-point hikes. Meantime, Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers warned that the war in Ukraine and the legacy of Washington pumping too much stimulus last year means an increasing danger of stagflation for the U.S. economy.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.8% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5%
* The MSCI World index fell 1.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.6%
* The euro fell 1.2% to $1.0931
* The British pound fell 0.8% to $1.3243
* The Japanese yen rose 0.5% to 114.85 per dollar
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined 10 basis points to 1.74%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined nine basis points to -0.07%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined nine basis points to 1.21%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 6.7% to $114.88 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 1.7% to $1,969.70 an ounce
–With assistance from Sunil Jagtiani, Emily Barrett, Namitha Jagadeesh, Vildana Hajric, Isabelle Lee, David Marino and Emily Graffeo.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann

Besides the noble art of getting things done, there is the noble art of leaving things undone. 
The wisdom of life consists in the elimination of non-essentials. – Lin Yutang, 1895-1976.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com