March 31, 2022 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.

March 31, 1889: The 984-foot (300 meter) Eiffel Tower, a wrought iron technological masterpiece created by Gustave Eiffel to commemorate  the centenary of the French Revolution,
is officially inaugurated in Paris.
1992: The U.N. Security Council voted to ban flights and arms sales to Libya, branding it a terrorist state for shielding six men accused of blowing up Pan Am Flight 103 and a French airliner. Go to article »
1959: Dalai Lama flees Tibet

Rene Descartes, philosopher, b. 1596.

World’s longest wooden roller coaster is getting longer.  Two extra feet of track mean a few more milliseconds of your life flashing before your eyes. 

Finally, a complete guide to NYC’s bagels. (h/t Jessica Karl)

Area man hacks airline website to find his lost luggage.

Microplastics are in our blood

Drought helped push the Vikings out of Greenland, new study finds.  Full Story: Live Science (3/30) 

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Chihuahuas pose in a photo booth at a pet fair
CREDIT: Franck Robichon/EPA

Antonio Rodrigues inspects a crop of primroses at Bridge Farm Nurseries in Lincolnshire, one of the largest growers of ornamental flowers in the UK
CREDIT: Joe Giddens/PA

Members of the Household Cavalry take part in preparations for events to mark the Queen’s platinum jubilee
CREDIT: Tom Nicholson/Reuters

Market Closes for March 31^st, 2022

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1928, alarmed at the feverish speculation in the bull market, Charles E. Merrill, the head of Merrill Lynch & Co., warned his clients to get out of stocks. “Take advantage of present high prices and put your own financial house in order,” he pleaded. Few listened, but by the end of 1929 he looked pretty smart. 
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 0.8%, or 185.8 to 21,890.16 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 1.3% on March 14.
Toronto-Dominion Bank contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.2%. West Fraser Timber Co. had the largest drop, falling 4.9%.
Today, 163 of 239 shares fell, while 68 rose; 8 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss 19 times. The next day, it advanced 13 times for an average 0.7% and declined six times for an average 0.6%
* This quarter, the index rose 3.1%
* This month, the index rose 3.6%
* So far this week, the index fell 0.5%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended Feb. 18
* The index advanced 17% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.3% below its 52-week high on March 31, 2022 and 17.1% above its low on March 31, 2021
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 3.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.5 on a trailing basis and 14.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.52t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 12.26% compared with 12.36% in the previous session and the average of 13.16% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
* Financials | -103.8606| -1.5| 6/22
* Information Technology| -34.6349| -2.3| 1/14
* Energy | -21.3941| -0.6| 11/22
* Industrials | -20.9512| -0.8| 6/24
* Materials | -15.5278| -0.5| 12/36
* Consumer Discretionary| -6.7368| -0.9| 3/11
* Real Estate | -3.8572| -0.6| 7/15
* Health Care | -2.9915| -2.0| 2/6
* Utilities | 6.4218| 0.6| 10/5
* Consumer Staples | 7.7504| 0.9| 7/4
* Communication Services| 9.9877| 0.9| 3/4
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
* TD Bank | -27.9800| -2.2| 22.0| 2.3
* Shopify | -26.7600| -3.9| -23.0| -51.5
* Royal Bank of Canada | -21.8900| -1.6| -6.8| 2.5
* BCE | 5.2510| 1.2| -12.0| 5.3
* Couche-Tard | 5.8300| 1.8| -4.7| 6.3
* Nutrien | 6.8610| 1.4| -18.1| 35.9
US
By Isabelle Lee and Vildana Hajric
(Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks tumbled into the close, wrapping up their first losing quarter since the pandemic bear market, as Treasuries also pared the worst losses in at least five decades.
Moves in most financial markets were muted on the final day of a quarter that brought the twin threats of hawkish central banks bent on tamping down runaway inflation and the war in Ukraine.
The S&P 500 declined, taking its loss in the three months to 4.9%, the most since March 2020.
The two-year Treasury yield gained after a 150 basis-point surge that’s the most since 1984.
Ten-year rates slipped, narrowing the spread to shorter tenors, as investors remain on edge over the threat a restrictive Federal Reserve will cause a recession.
And oil slumped, but held just above $100 a barrel in New York.
“The question is what kind of risk do we face in the second quarter?” Rob Haworth, senior investment strategy director at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, said by phone. “We’re still well left with a lot.”
Stocks, sovereign bonds and corporate credit all got hammered in the year’s first months amid concerns about a growth slowdown as central banks move to tackle inflation by withdrawing stimulus.
Investors who piled into commodities fared best, riding massive gains in everything from oil to nickel and wheat.
Yet, the increases have exacerbated price concerns and may lead to a sharper response from central banks.
“The recent rally has masked a lot of pain over the past three months,” wrote Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co.
Thursday’s decline marked the S&P 500’s 35^th down day this year, the greatest number of first-quarter drawdowns since 1984, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Oil slid as U.S. President Joe Biden ordered a massive release of U.S. oil reserves while also prodding drillers to step up output.
Meanwhile, stocks fell as U.S. inflation-adjusted spending declined last month as prices tempered demand.
Brent and West Texas Intermediate prices dropped about 6%, and European natural gas fell as Russia said it would halt gas contracts if buyers don’t pay in rubles.
“Aside from quarter-end considerations, oil is very much the center of attention,” Simon Ballard, chief economist at First Abu Dhabi Bank, wrote in a note to investors.
Still, “all the usual suspects are still in play, keeping the market in check, including the specter of the Fed pursuing an aggressive path of monetary policy normalization over the coming months.”
Markets now see a strong chance the Federal Reserve will lift rates by a half point at its May meeting.
The U.S. 2-year yield briefly exceeded the 10-year for the first time since 2019 on Tuesday, inverting yet another segment of the Treasury curve and reinforcing the view that Fed rate increases may cause a
recession.
“This week’s brief inversion in the U.S. bond market, combined with elevated volatility on Treasury options, is a warning that the risk of U.S. recession should not be ignored,” wrote Lewis Grant, a senior portfolio manager at Federated Hermes. “U.S. bond markets are showing signs of stress. This is not mirrored in equities, where the VIX remains subdued and U.S. indexes trade above their pre-war levels. The bond market would appear to have a better handle on the potential risks.”

Some key events to watch this week:
* U.S. jobs report, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.6% as of 4:05 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.6%
* The MSCI World index fell 1.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
* The euro fell 0.8% to $1.1069
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3143
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 121.73 per dollar
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 2.33%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined 10 basis points to 0.55%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 1.61%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 6.4% to $100.90 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 0.1% to $1,941.80 an ounce
–With assistance from Abigail Moses, Cecile Gutscher, Andreea Papuc, Daniel Curtis and Anwesha Patnaik.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
You can tell more about a person by what he says about others than you can by what others say about him. -Leo Aikman, 1908-1978.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com