March 29, 2022 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
March 29, 1999: Dow Jones tops 10,000 for the first time.

On March 29, 1973, the last United States troops left South Vietnam, ending America’s direct military involvement in the Vietnam War.  Go to article »

Phil Collins and Genesis hold emotional final concert.  Hats off to a legend. 

Nostalgia can reduce perception of pain, study shows.  Just bite down and think of a time before we had to dial area codes!

Seas of cargo shorts and flip flops spell the demise of men’s fashion.

From 10 a.m. to 10 p.m., there’s always a line outside New York’s most popular Ukrainian restaurant. (h/t Scott Kominers)

“Hello Human,” says the world’s first robot burger vending machine.

The Late Night hosts focused their Monday night monologues on Sunday’s big slap at the Oscars:
“The 94th Academy Awards were held last night and featured the first live performance of ‘We Don’t Talk About Bruno,’ from the Disney musical ‘Encanto,’ followed by an unbelievable live performance of ‘We Don’t Talk About Jada.’” — SETH MEYERS

“Let me say something as an objective observer: It’s never OK to punch a comedian.” — STEPHEN COLBERT

“And by the way, no one did anything. A whole roomful of people, no one lifted a finger. Spider-Man was there, Aquaman was there, Catwoman, all sitting on their hands.
No one helped Chris Rock.” — JIMMY KIMMEL

“Seriously, you know it was a strange award show when it ends with a statement from the L.A.P.D., you know what I’m saying?” — JIMMY FALLON

PICTURES OF THE DAY

Tourists enjoy the azaleas in blossom at Fangniu village
CREDIT: He Penglei/China News Service/Getty Images

Sculpture conservator James Copper prepares the monumental plaster Large Spindle Piece which goes on show for the first time during the new exhibition Henry Moore: the Sixties, which opens to the public on Friday 1 April at the Henry Moore Studios and Gardens in Hertfordshire
CREDIT: Joe Giddens/PA

Competitors take part in the Marathon des Sables between Ouest Aguenoun n’Oumerhiout and Rich Mbirika in the Sahara desert
CREDIT: Jean-Philippe Ksiazek/AFP/Getty Images

Market Closes for March 29^th, 2022

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1918, Sam Moore Walton, future founder of Wal-Mart, was born in Kingfisher, Okla.
Canada
By Geoffrey Morgan
(Bloomberg) — Canadian equities rallied Tuesday, amid a North America wide rally on reports of progress in cease-fire talks between Russia and Ukraine.
Tech and consumer discretionary stocks rose and pulled up the S&P/TSX Composite 0.5% at 22,087.22 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 5.8%.
Cargojet Inc. had the largest percentage increase, rising 13.2%.
Today, 187 of 239 shares rose, while 50 fell; 9 of 11 sectors were higher, led by information technology stocks.
Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 4.1%
* This month, the index rose 4.5%
* The index advanced 18% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 16% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.3% below its 52-week high on March 22, 2022 and 18.7% above its low on March 30, 2021
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 4.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.7 on a trailing basis and 14.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.5t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 12.51% compared with 12.59% in the previous session and the average of 13.23% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
* Information Technology | 55.0743| 3.7| 15/1
* Consumer Discretionary | 17.5112| 2.5| 14/0
* Industrials | 15.1541| 0.6| 27/3
* Financials | 13.4604| 0.2| 21/7
* Real Estate | 7.8402| 1.3| 23/0
* Utilities | 7.3617| 0.7| 14/2
* Consumer Staples | 3.8236| 0.5| 10/1
* Health Care | 3.7837| 2.5| 8/0
* Communication Services | 1.2369| 0.1| 5/2
* Energy | -0.1287| 0.0| 15/17
* Materials | -15.7218| -0.5| 35/17
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
* Shopify | 39.9400| 5.8| -14.0| -46.6
* Brookfield Asset Management | 12.4600| 1.7| -7.7| -4.6
* Magna International | 6.5960| 4.3| -26.3| -18.6
* Royal Bank of Canada | -4.4010| -0.3| -39.7| 4.6
* TD Bank | -5.0230| -0.4| -1.3| 4.7
* Nutrien | -26.7500| -5.3| -0.7| 33.1

US
By Stephen Kirkland and Vildana Hajric
(Bloomberg) — U.S. stocks rose in a broad-based rally on Tuesday amid optimism for progress in talks between Russia and Ukraine. Most Treasury yields retreated, while a key segment of the curve inverted for the first time since 2019.
The S&P 500 gained for a fourth day, closing above the 4,600 level for the first time since mid-January.
All 11 industry groups rose, except for energy stocks following declines in oil prices.
The Nasdaq 100 climbed more than 1.5% and Apple Inc. rose for an 11th day in the longest winning streak since 2003.
The dollar declined while the euro rose the most in almost three weeks.
Prospects for scaling back the war in Ukraine boosted risk sentiment.
Talks between Russia and Ukraine failed to reach agreement on a cease-fire, but offered a potential pathway to a meeting between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
Russia said it was cutting back military activity near the capital Kyiv and the city of Chernihiv, and its chief negotiator said Moscow would take steps to “de-escalate” the conflict.
“You’re getting a look at how the market might respond to de-escalation,” Shawn Cruz, senior market strategist at TD Ameritrade Inc., said by phone. “I do think we’ll get more headlines around slow-but-sure progress and discussions of at least being willing to come to the bargaining table becoming more frequent, and that will be the driver of intraday volatility.”
The selloff in Treasuries stalled, with yields lower across most maturities as talks drove down oil prices and inflation expectations.
The five-year breakeven rate on inflation protected Treasuries dropped as much as 12 basis points to 3.52% after hitting record highs last week.
Meanwhile, the two-year yield briefly exceeded the 10-year for the first time since 2019, reinforcing the view that Federal Reserve rate increases may cause a recession.
Ukrainian negotiators said there is enough ground coming out of talks to hold meeting between Putin and Zelenskiy after wrapping up discussions in Turkey on Tuesday.
But Moscow’s announcement of de-escalation came as the advance on the capital was already stalled, and previous efforts at diplomacy and overtures such as humanitarian corridors have yielded little.
Global shares have rallied from the lows reached after Russia invaded Ukraine.
Such resilience contrasts with inverting yield curves, which are shaking economic confidence as investors brace for the Fed to tighten monetary policy to contain inflation running at the fastest pace in four decades.
The two-to 10-year inversion is the latest in a series beginning in October, when 20-year yields topped 30-year yields.
In the past month, inversion has come to the 7- to 10-year and the 5- to 7-year segments, among others.
Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker said he expects a series of “deliberate, methodical” rate increases this year, but said he is open to a half-point move in May if near-term data shows more inflation.
On the U.S. economic front, consumer confidence edged up in March, suggesting solid job growth offset Americans’ concerns over accelerating inflation, according to a report Tuesday.
Government data Friday are expected to show the economy probably added close to a half million jobs in March as the unemployment rate fell to 3.7%.

More Commentary:
“What we haven’t really started to get our hands around and what we haven’t had to deal with yet is quantitative tightening,” Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments, said by phone. “And so we’re probably about halfway through the Fed story for this tightening cycle. But the second half is frankly a lot more uncertain than the first half.”
“When you have a situation where oil prices have spiked and oil becomes a larger component of GDP, historically that has led to a recession,” said Joe Gilbert, portfolio manager at Integrity Asset Management, in an interview with Bloomberg TV.  “But we’re in a lot stronger position from the way consumers are, the job market-the health there. So our base case is that we avoid recession, but we will have periods of slower growth.”
“We are seeing small changes in the facts, primarily some favorable negotiations between Russia and Ukraine,” said Mike Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners. “Investors are extrapolating this small positive into perhaps a bigger positive that a cease-fire is around the corner.   Finally, investor opinions are getting more bullish by the day as buyers see improving fundamentals and stocks trading below peak, especially for tech.”
Some key events to watch this week:
* U.S. GDP, Wednesday
* Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin to speak, Wednesday
* China manufacturing, non-manufacturing PMIs, Thursday
* OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting to discuss production targets, Thursday
* New York Fed President John Williams to speak, Thursday
* U.S. jobs report, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1%
* The MSCI World index rose 1.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.6%
* The euro rose 0.9% to $1.1088
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3097
* The Japanese yen rose 0.8% to 122.87 per dollar
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined seven basis points to 2.39%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 0.63%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 1.64%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.9% to $105.02 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 1% to $1,925.40 an ounce
–With assistance from Andreea Papuc, Abigail Moses, Isabelle Lee and Emily Graffeo.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann

Everything you’ve ever wanted is on the other side of fear. –George Addair, 1823-1899.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
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www.carolannsteinhoff.com