March 25, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
March 25^th, 1306: Robert the Bruce is crowned King of Scotland at Scone, asserting Scotland’s independence from English rule.
March 25, 1992: Cosmonaut Sergei Krikalev returned to Earth from the Mir space station after a 10-month stay, during which his native country, the Soviet Union, ceased to exist.  Go to article.

Old New Year’s Day was on this date until 1751.
Aretha Franklin, singer, b. 1942.
Sarah Jessica Parker, actress, b. 1965.

Women’s March Madness games finalized
The second round of the women’s 2025 NCAA basketball tournament is done and the Sweet 16 is set. See who made the cut.

Southern Cal superstar injured
Sophomore guard JuJu Watkins was carried off the court during the Trojans’ game against Mississippi State in the women’s NCAA basketball tournament last night after she collided with Bulldogs’ senior guard Chandler Prater and apparently injured her knee.

Even the Earth needs to vent sometimes
Tourists will soon be able to see a new thermal vent spewing steam at Yellowstone National Park. Assuming it stays active until April, the vent will be visible to tourists from an area about a mile north of the Norris Geyser Basin.

Feels like I forgot something …
A United Airlines flight from Los Angeles to China had to turn around two hours into the journey and make an unscheduled stop in San Francisco last weekend after one of the pilots forgot to bring a passport.

Ancient Egyptian pyramids, thought to contain only the elite, may also hold low-class laborers
At the site of Tombos, archaeologists have found that less-affluent laborers may be buried with upper-class people in pyramid tombs. Read More.

‘Extremely Large Telescope’ being built in Chile could detect signs of alien life in a single night
The Extremely Large Telescope will revolutionize our view of the cosmos when it sees first light in Chile in 2028. In fact, it could detect hints of alien life around our closest neighboring star system in its first night of operations, new simulations suggest. Read More.

Silent X chromosome genes ‘reawaken’ in older females, perhaps boosting brain power, study finds
Females have one active X chromosome and one dormant X chromosome in each cell. But a study suggests that genes on the dormant X get “reawakened” later in life,
potentially giving the brain a boost. Read More.

China’s new 2D transistor could soon be used to make the world’s fastest processors
Advances in materials and architecture could lead to silicon-free chip manufacturing thanks to a new type of transistor. Read More.

Can animals understand human language?
There are many famous examples of animals who seem to understand human language. But is there any real science behind them? Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Taunus, Germany
Deer come out of a birch grove in a forest
Photograph: Michael Probst/AP

Banteay Meanchey, Cambodia
A boy walks past statues of Buddhist monks at the Trapeang Thma pagoda
Photograph: Tang Chhin Sothy/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​An albino white-tailed doe with two bucks near Johnstown, Pennsylvania, US
Photograph: John Rucosky/AP
Market Closes for March 25^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
If you have large cap, mid cap and small cap, and the market declines, you’re going to have less cap. –Martin Truax.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.1%, or 35.4 to 25,339.51 in Toronto.
The index advanced to the highest closing level since Feb. 28.
Barrick Gold Corp. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.1%.
Torex Gold Resources Inc. had the largest increase, rising 7.4%.
Today, 131 of 218 shares rose, while 81 fell; 4 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 2.5%
* This month, the index was little changed
* The index advanced 15% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 10% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.1% below its 52-week high on Jan. 30, 2025 and 18% above its low on June 17, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.6% in the past 5 days and rose 0.5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.9 on a trailing basis and 15.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.08t
* 30-day price volatility little changed to 15.42% compared with 15.41% in the previous session and the average of 13.79% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 26.5605| 0.3| 19/6
Materials | 22.0295| 0.6| 35/14
Consumer Staples | 7.5736| 0.8| 8/1
Communication Services | 2.2141| 0.4| 4/1
Utilities | -0.0222| 0.0| 10/4
Health Care | -0.5253| -0.8| 2/1
Information Technology | -0.7696| 0.0| 6/4
Consumer Discretionary | -0.9888| -0.1| 3/7
Real Estate | -3.1812| -0.7| 8/10
Energy | -6.7366| -0.2| 23/18
Industrials | -10.7398| -0.3| 13/15
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Barrick Gold | 6.7870| 2.1| -33.6| 24.0
RBC | 6.4510| 0.4| -4.1| -3.8
Canadian Natural Resources | 5.4580| 0.8| -8.9| 0.2
Cameco | -6.1100| -3.1| -30.8| -14.1
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -10.2900| -1.5| 20.5| -0.7
Nutrien | -12.4400| -4.8| 48.8| 11.3
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A late-day rally in several big techs drove stocks higher on Tuesday, though gains moderated after one of the market’s best days in 2025 as traders assessed economic risks amid the threat of trade war.
After fluctuating throughout most of the session, the S&P 500 managed to close up by 0.2%.
A slide in consumer confidence to a four-year low weighed on Wall Street sentiment.
That’s even as traders added to wagers on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts this year.
Bond yields slipped. The dollar halted a four-day advance.
Oil declined as US said Russia and Ukraine have agreed to a ceasefire in the Black Sea.
US copper surged to a record.
Market forecasters have been split on whether the rebound in equities has further to go.
Strategists at HSBC Holdings Plc led by Max Kettner downgraded US stocks to underweight, citing economic concerns.
Meantime, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Ilan Benhamou said it’s time to pause the rally-fading approach as emerging clarity on tariffs alleviates some key risks.
“Confidence is a fragile thing,” said Steve Sosnick at Interactive Brokers.
“Despite the ever-increasing roles of algorithms and artificial intelligence in the investment process, emotions still play an important role in market behavior. Fear and greed still rule, and their constant tug-of-war has been on full display in both the market and the economy recently.”
To Matt Maley at Miller Tabak, the bounce from a selloff has been a good one, but investors still need to be sure that the worst is really behind us.
Maley says the rebound was nothing more than something you would normally see after a correction.
The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.5%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed.
A gauge of mega caps outpaced the market, with only Nvidia Corp. dropping.
KB Home sank after cutting its sales forecast.
AT&T Inc. is said to be in talks to buy Lumen
Technologies Inc.’s consumer fiber operations.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries slid two basis points to 4.31%.
The dollar dropped 0.1%.
“There’s a little bit of paralysis with market participants not knowing what to do because they don’t know what policy is going to go into place,” said Charles Ashley at Catalyst Funds.
“We’re not at the point yet where there’s extreme pricing dislocations to find really good opportunities.”
Consumer sentiment surveys have been dismal of late as households fear a resurgence in inflation from President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Companies have warned of higher prices and less demand, coinciding with economists’ forecasts that suggest a risk of stagflation and rising odds of recession.
“Sentiment continues to wane among investors, consumers and businesses as economic concerns and economic policy uncertainty takes its toll,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
“Until there’s more certainty on the tariff and macro front, sentiment and confidence remain vulnerable.”
At UBS Group AG, Bhanu Baweja said the “visibly tiring” US consumer is set to further pressure stock prices.
He expects the S&P 500 to drop as low as 5,300 points as analysts cut profit estimates for the next three to four months.
The gauge closed at 5,776.65 on Tuesday.
“Over the last several weeks we’ve seen evidence that whatever froth there was in terms of market sentiment, bullish sentiment has been wrung out,” said Bespoke Investment Group strategists.
They noted the latest example came in Tuesday’s consumer confidence, with the percentage of those expecting lower stock prices in the year ahead surging by more than 10 percentage points.
“Following these prior surges in negative sentiment, though, the equity market tended to start recovering, and pretty quickly in most cases,” Bespoke said.
“Sentiment remains cagey,” said Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com.
“There are fears that the rebound may have run a bit too high. Clearly, some investors remain unconvinced that the worst is over.”
For much of last year, market forecasters bumped up their outlooks for US equities in tandem, chasing a rally that propelled the S&P 500 from one record high to another.
But a quick 10% drop from the index’s February high caught them offsides, triggering a debate over which way stocks will go next.
The benchmark had bounced back in recent days as the White House signaled plans to take a more targeted approach to the tariffs coming next week.
However, the ultimate outcome remains highly unpredictable since levies from the US are likely to trigger reciprocal responses from the countries they’re aimed at, making the economic consequences almost impossible to predict.
“The issue at this point is the risk/reward is much less favorable than when the S&P 500 was around 5,500-5,600,” said Jonathan Krinsky at BTIG. “So in order to be aggressive buyers here, you have to believe the S&P 500 is going back above 6,000. While we are open to that possibility, it’s not our base case.”

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.3%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.2%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.7%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.1%
* The euro was little changed at $1.0795
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.2947
* The Japanese yen rose 0.6% to 149.86 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.4% to $88,231.4
* Ether fell 0.4% to $2,077.41
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.31%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.80%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 4.75%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
* Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,019.56 an ounce

–With assistance from Sujata Rao, Margaryta Kirakosian, Aya Wagatsuma and Lynn Thomasson.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Most people would like to be delivered from temptation, but would like it to keep in touch. –Robert Orben, 1927-2023.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com