March 21, 2023 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
March 21, 1963 Alcatraz prison in San Francisco Bay was emptied of its last inmates.  Go to article > 
March 21,2006: the social media site Twitter is founded.
March 21,1965: Selma, Alabama Civil Rights March.

Johann Sebastien Bach, b. 1685.

Bumblebees solve puzzles by watching other bumblebees.  Like humans, bumblebees are capable of socially learning behavior and passing on the knowledge to others in their colonies, a new study shows.

During his Monday night monologue, Jimmy Kimmel joked that indictments were “in the air.”
“It’s really magical,” he said. “It’s the calm before the Stormy.”

“But, yeah, Donald Trump paid Stormy Daniels to keep this story quiet, and here we are, still talking about it seven years later, so that would be another failed Trump business venture.” — AL FRANKEN
“You’ve got to give it to him. It’s not often that everyone sends out a save-the-date for their own arrest.” — JIMMY FALLON

“Police are going to be like, ‘You have the right to remain silent — now, but also in general. Just think about it. Just something to think about.’” — JIMMY FALLON

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Twin Bridges, US
Houses are buried in snow in California. The Lake Tahoe region is preparing for more snow in the coming days after near-record levels so far this season
Photograph: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Turin, Italy
A visitor views images by the American photographer, reporter and artist Eve Arnold, part of the Eve Arnold, The Work exhibition at Camera Torino
Photograph: Roberto Serra/Iguana Press/Getty Images

Nowruz, which has been celebrated for at least 3,000 years, is one of the most important celebrations in the greater Persian world, which includes the countries of Iran, Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Turkey and portions of western China and northern Iraq
Photograph: Xinhua/Rex/Shutterstock
Market Closes for March 21^st, 2023

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1868: In London, the prospectus for the earliest known mutual fund was published, as the Foreign and Colonial Government Trust offered its shares to the public for £85.  It invested in emerging markets bonds: Argentina, Australia, Chile, Egypt, Peru, Turkey and the U.S.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.7%, or 135.49 to 19,654.92 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.7%.
Precision Drilling Corp. had the largest increase, rising 8.7%.
Today, 152 of 235 shares rose, while 81 fell; 6 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 1.4%
* This month, the index fell 2.8%
* The index declined 11% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 11% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 11.5% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 10% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and fell 3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.6 on a trailing basis and 12.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.13t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 11.84% compared with 11.70% in the previous session and the average of 9.21% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 71.6686| 1.2| 27/2
Energy | 68.2301| 2.1| 39/1
Information Technology | 19.7877| 1.6| 9/3
Industrials | 5.5021| 0.2| 20/7
Consumer Discretionary | 3.5011| 0.5| 11/4
Health Care | 2.9429| 4.4| 6/0
Real Estate | -1.4427| -0.3| 6/14
Consumer Staples | -3.2083| -0.4| 6/5
Communication Services | -3.3186| -0.3| 2/4
Utilities | -9.1823| -1.0| 7/9
Materials | -24.6918| -1.0| 19/32
================================================================
| | |Volume VS | YTD
| Index | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 23.1500| 4.7| -11.0| 33.4
Canadian Natural Resources | 16.1600| 3.0| -18.7| -3.5
RBC | 11.7900| 1.0| -26.7| 1.9
Agnico Eagle Mines | -5.0450| -2.3| -53.2| -3.5
Franco-Nevada | -6.1640| -2.4| -35.7| 4.6
Barrick Gold | -7.7970| -2.6| -40.4| 4.5
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street’s favorite volatility gauge tumbled as a rebound in stocks deepened, with a surge in banks and assurances from global authorities easing concerns that the recent financial tumult would lead to a full-blown crisis.  Call it calm.
Or call it calm before the storm.
Whatever the case, the coordinated actions to resolve the banking turmoil have restored a semblance of order for now.
The market’s so-called fear gauge, or VIX, headed toward its biggest two-day plunge since May.
In the run-up to the Federal Reserve decision, traders are betting on another 25 basis-point hike, with officials forging ahead with the battle against inflation and signaling commitment to financial stability.
“This is an easier market backdrop,” said Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. “Expectations of a dramatic about-face for monetary policy are diminishing. Market expectations for near-term Fed rate decisions are now within the realm of the possible. That is good news.”
The S&P 500 topped 4,000, extending its advance above the key 200-day moving average.
After briefly exceeding 30 last week for the first time since October, the CBOE Volatility Index plummeted to around 22.
Every stock in a measure of US financial heavyweights climbed.
First Republic Bank surged 30% — its best day ever — amid optimism over a new plan under discussion to aid the regional lender.
Now the rally in the riskier corners of the market doesn’t mean an all-clear at this stage.
To Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co., investors should be careful about the conclusions they draw from the recent equity advance as there are at least two ways to look at it.
“One is to think that the stock market is looking past this mini-crisis and sees that the economy (and thus earnings) are going to grow quite nicely once we get past this problem,” Maley said. “The other way to look at it is to think that the situation is still quite a dicey one, and the authorities are pumping so much short-term liquidity into the system that the stock market cannot decline over the near term.”
Several strategists are indeed growing concerned, with Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson saying the risk of a credit crunch is increasing materially.
The S&P 500 might find a floor at 3,800, but investors should sell into any rallies if the benchmark reaches 4,100 to 4,200, Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett wrote.
BofA’s latest global survey of fund managers showed a systemic credit event has replaced stubborn inflation as the key risk to markets.
The polling took place from March 10-16, while money managers were witnessing the collapse of US lenders Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank and monitoring the turmoil at Credit Suisse before its historic takeover by UBS.
The likelihood of a recession is rising again for the first time since November, with the survey showing a net 42% of participants expecting a slowdown over the next 12 months.
Another worrisome development is the extreme volatility in short-term government bonds that has now dragged into a ninth straight day.
Treasury two-year notes, which are normally considered a low-risk investment, saw its yield surge as much as 21 basis points to 4.18% Tuesday.
John Hancock Investment Management’s Matthew Miskin is certain the Fed has run out of runway for a soft landing, and he’s pointing to turbulence in the bond market to make that case.
“When the two-year Treasury yield starts acting like a meme stock, you’ve got some problems,” Miskin said Tuesday on Bloomberg Television. “The bond market is saying, ‘yeah, you’re going to raise rates but it’s going to be a mistake and you’re going to be cutting in the not so distant future.’”
Key events this week:
* US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to appear at Senate subcommittee hearing, Wednesday
* FOMC rate decision, news conference from Chair Jerome Powell, Wednesday
* EIA crude oil inventory report, Wednesday
* Eurozone consumer confidence, Thursday
* BOE interest rate decision, Thursday
* Swiss National Bank rate decision and press conference, Thursday
* US new home sales, initial jobless claims, Thursday
* US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen testifies to a House Appropriations subcommittee, Thursday
* Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI, Friday
* US durable goods, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1%
* The MSCI World index rose 1.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro rose 0.5% to $1.0771
* The British pound fell 0.5% to $1.2220
* The Japanese yen fell 0.9% to 132.46 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.4% to $28,188.66
* Ether rose 1.9% to $1,795.4
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 11 basis points to 3.59%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced 17 basis points to 2.29%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 3.37%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.5% to $69.33 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 2% to $1,960.50 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Isabelle Lee, Angel Adegbesan, Carly Wanna, Peyton Forte and Felice Maranz.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
I’ll study and get ready, and then the chance will come. -Abraham Lincoln, 1809-1865.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com