Dear Friends,
Tangents: Happy first day of Spring! 🌱🌷
Spring is when life’s alive in everything. –Christina Rossetti.
March 20,1602: Dutch East India Company established; lasted 196 years.
March 20, 1852: Alessandro Volta reports his discovery of the electric battery, revolutionizing science and laying the foundations for modern electronics.
March 20,1852: Uncle Tom’s Cabin published.
March 20, 1997: Liggett Group settled 22 state lawsuits by admitting the industry markets cigarettes to teenagers and agreeing to warn on every pack that smoking is addictive. Go to article.
Ovid, writer, b. 43 BC.
Henrik Ibsen, writer, b.1828.
Holly Hunter, actress, b. 1958.
Spike Lee, film-maker, b. 1957.
Pause for Poetry:
Spring Flowers
From Spring (The Seasons)
Along these blushing borders, bright with dew,
And in yon mingled wilderness of Flowers,
Fair-handed Spring unbosoms every Grace;
Throws out the Snow-Drop and the Crocus first;
The Daisy, Primrose, Violet darkly blue,
And polyanthus of unnumbered dyes;
The yellow wall-flower, stained with iron brown;
And lavish stock that scents the garden round:
From the soft wing of vernal breezes shed,
Anemones, Auriculas, enriched
With shining meal o’er all their velvet leaves;
And full Ranunculus, of glowing red.
Then comes the Tulip-race, where Beauty plays
Her idle Freaks; from Family diffused
To Family, as flies the Father-Dust,
The varied Colours run; and, while they break
On the charmed eye, the exulting Florist marks,
With secret pride, the wonders of his hand.
-James Thomson
Reality is not always probable, or likely. –Jorge Luis Borges.
| Monte Verde, one of the earliest Indigenous sites in South America, is much younger than thought, study claims. But others call it ‘egregiously poor geological work.’ |
A new analysis of archaeological layers at Monte Verde in Chile suggests that people lived there 4,200 years ago, not 14,500 years ago as originally proposed.
But many experts point to errors in the methods. Read More.
| 1,800-year-old nails discovered in 3 burials in Roman necropolis, possibly to ‘protect’ both the living and the dead |
Archaeologists excavating in Rome’s Ostiense necropolis found three skeletons with iron nails on their chests, hinting at a ritual to prevent restless spirits. Read More.
| The first flying taxis could start operating in 2026 — will this new form of transport actually take off? |
Flying cars have been on the cusp of a breakthrough for a while, so what’s stopping them from taking to the skies? Read More.
| An experimental AI agent broke out of its testing environment and mined crypto without permission |
Researchers discovered that an AI agent roamed beyond its parameters, creating backdoors in IT infrastructure. Read More.
| Should compulsive shopping and gaming be considered an addiction? Psychiatrists are considering expanding the definition. |
Mental health professionals recognize problematic gambling as an addiction. Should the same apply to excessive gaming, compulsive sexual behavior and problematic social media use? Read More.
Video: BTS drops long-awaited album
Fans are buzzing over the K-pop group’s first album in four years. The release marks BTS’s return after a break for military service.
First new Spinosaurus species identified in over a century
These newly identified fossils apparently belonged to a creature that lived some 95 million years ago.
Concert crowds have become ‘a sea of phones.’ But is the tide turning? Harry Styles is among an increasing number of artists taking steps to turn back the clock and create phone-free audiences.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Paris, France
Britain’s Skye Higgin riding Fly for You competes during the Prix du Grand Palais at the Le Saut Hermès international jumping competition at the Grand Palais
Photograph: Anne-Christine Poujoulat/AFP/Getty Images
Manchester, UK
Audience members prepare to take their seats at Victoria Baths before Kantos Chamber Choir’s performance of choral works inspired by the sun, beneath an artwork entitled Helios by the artist Luke Jerram
Photograph: Oli Scarff/AFP/Getty Images
Gold Coast, Australia
Australia’s Hannah Green walks past kangaroos on the 6th hole during the WPGA Championship at Sanctuary Cove Golf and Country Club
Photograph: AAP
Market Closes for March 20th , 2026
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| Dow Jones |
45577.47 | -443.96 |
| -0.96% | ||
| S&P 500 | 6506.48 | -100.01 |
| -1.51% | ||
| NASDAQ | 21647.61 | -443.08 |
| -2.01% | ||
| TSX | 31317.41 | -537.57 |
| -1.69% |
International Markets
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| NIKKEI | 53372.53 | -1866.87 |
| -3.38% | ||
| HANG SENG |
25277.32 | -223.26 |
| -0.88% | ||
| SEN SEX | 74532.96 | +325.72 |
| +0.44% | ||
| FTSE 100* | 9918.33 | -145.17 |
| -1.44% |
Bonds
| Bonds | % Yield | Previous % Yield |
| CND. 10 Year Bond |
3.555 | 3.438 |
| CND. 30 Year Bond |
3.940 | 3.850 |
| U.S. 10 Year Bond |
4.3796 | 4.2493 |
| U.S. 30 Year Bond |
4.9377 | 4.8372 |
| BOC Close | Today | Previous |
| Canadian $ | 0.7286 | 0.7280 |
| US $ |
1.3723 | 1.3736 |
| Euro Rate 1 Euro= |
Inverse | |
| Canadian $ | 0.6286 | 1.5908 |
| US $ |
0.8627 | 1.1592 |
Commodities
| Gold | Close | Previous |
| London Gold Fix |
4600.35 | 4869.95 |
| Oil | ||
| WTI Crude Future | 98.32 | 96.14 |
Market Commentary:
On this day in 1942, an agreement was reached between the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve that paved the way for wartime yield-curve control. It was an early experiment in unorthodox monetary policy that lasted until 1951.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the third day, dropping 1.7%, or 537.75 to 31,317.23 in Toronto.
The index dropped to the lowest closing level since Dec. 17.
Today, materials stocks led the market lower, as 10 of 11 sectors lost; 174 of 217 shares fell, while 43 rose.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 4.5%.
Lithium Americas Corp. had the largest drop, falling 7.6%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss 10 times. The next day, it advanced seven times for an average 1.1% and declined three times for an average 2.5%
* This quarter, the index fell 1.2%, heading for the biggest decline since the second quarter of 2024
* This month, the index fell 8.8%, heading for the biggest decline since June 2022
* So far this week, the index fell 3.8%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended April 4
* The index advanced 25% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 16% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 9.3% below its 52-week high on March 2, 2026 and 40.9% above its low on April 7, 2025
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.7 on a trailing basis and 16.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$5.04t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 18.74% compared with 18.67% in the previous session and the average of 19.13% over the past month
Index Points
Materials | -180.0867| -3.1| 5/51
Financials | -114.7444| -1.1| 6/18
Information Technology| -85.0078| -3.5| 2/8
Energy | -68.9791| -1.2| 16/21
Industrials | -38.6154| -1.2| 4/25
Utilities | -23.6195| -2.0| 1/13
Consumer Discretionary| -14.6028| -1.4| 0/9
Real Estate | -8.2668| -1.8| 2/17
Health Care | -2.7120| -3.3| 0/4
Communication Services| -1.5238| -0.2| 3/2
Consumer Staples | 0.5915| 0.1| 4/6
Shopify | -65.1500| -4.5| 231.6| -27.3
TD Bank | -30.0100| -2.0| 208.7| -2.5
Wheaton Precious Metals | -29.5200| -5.6| 235.0| -2.7
Intact Financial | 2.8950| 0.9| 84.8| -12.4
Power of Canada | 3.9350| 1.6| 292.7| -11.1
Suncor | 4.0310| 0.6| 27.3| 43.6
MT Newswires:
The Toronto Stock Exchange turned negative for the year to date on Friday after three-straight big losing sessions as investors grow increasingly nervous about how long the Middle East war will last, while economists are busying themselves analyzing what impact recent events will have on the thinking of central bankers.
The resources heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 537.75 points, or 1.7%, to 31,317.23, with all sectors lower.
It added to the 1,074.11 points, or more than 3%, lost over the two prior days.
According to Dow Jones Market Data, FactSet, the TSX going into today’s session was month-to-date down 7.24% and year-to-date up 142.22 points or 0.45%.
It was off 7.78% from its record close of 34,541.27 hit Monday, March 2, 2026.
Energy did keep losses to under 1% as West Texas Intermediate oil closed higher, shaking off early weakness following reports the Trump Administration is sending three more warships and up to 2,500 additional marines to the Persian Gulf.
WTI crude oil for April delivery closed up US$2.18 to US$98.32 per barrel, while May Brent oil was last seen up US$3.57 to US$112.22.
But Base Metals lost 3.7% as gold traded lower by midafternoon Friday, falling to a two-month low as the dollar and treasury yields rose amid dimming hopes for lower interest rates.
Gold for April delivery was down $38.80 to US$4,566.90 per ounce, the lowest since Jan. 8.
In news related to the broader stock market, the head of the company behind the Toronto Stock Exchange, TMX Group (X.TO), told The Wall Street Journal Canadian securities regulators’ move to end mandatory quarterly earnings reports for small companies should be the first move toward applying that change broadly.
"It is a shift that TMX Group Chief Executive John McKenzie argues will strengthen capital markets in Canada and help revive initial public offerings in the country at a time when the U.S. is similarly looking to ax[e] forced quarterly reports," The WSJ wrote.
On the economics front, Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, in his weekly ‘Talking Points’ note said the Bank of Canada may well have spoken for all other central banks when it said the war on Iran and rising energy prices are a "dilemma for central banks".
As for what it means for monetary policy, in a very succinct fashion, it noted: "Raising interest rates to slow inflation could further weaken the economy.
Easing interest rates to support growth risks pushing inflation well above target."
And, Porter said, given that policy interest rates are fairly close to neutral now in most economies, the appropriate response by the central banks is to hold policy steady, for now.
Royce Mendes, Head of Macro Strategy at Desjardins, reiterated a call that the Bank of Canada will remain on the sidelines for the duration of 2026, even as market-implied pricing now assumes the central bank will hike rates three times this year.
Mendes noted Canada’s rates market has been caught up in the "massive" front-end selloff in global sovereign debt markets. But, he said, conditions are decidedly different in Canada.
Mendes noted that prior to the Middle East conflict, underlying inflationary pressures looked extremely muted.
In contrast, he also noted, core inflation in both the UK and Eurozone had been stuck above their respective central bank targets.
Moreover, Mendes said, the weight of energy in Canada’s CPI basket is considerably lower than in most other OECD countries.
"Both of those facts leave Canadian monetary policymakers with significantly more scope to look through the recent spike in energy prices," he added.
"In part," Mendes wrote, "the soft inflation readings have been the result of a struggling economy which has been persistently exhibiting excess supply.
Overreacting to a likely temporary inflation spike with more restrictive monetary policy could needlessly deepen the economic pain.
In the short term, higher energy costs will work like a tax on many households and businesses.
Financial conditions have also meaningfully tightened.
As a result, the wave of homeowners renewing their mortgages — and those looking to buy a new home — will face fixed rates materially higher than just a few months ago, potentially pushing the hard-hit markets in Toronto and Vancouver further into recession.
As a result, despite this week’s violent front-end moves, we are reiterating our call that the Bank of Canada will remain on the sidelines for the duration of 2026."
Elsewhere, CIBC Capital Markets Chief Economist Avery Shenfeld, in his regular ‘The Week Ahead’ column, said CIBC’s base case call was for the BoC to stay on hold.
"But when thinking about weaker growth scenarios," he said, "we were assuming that, with inflation now at target, the Bank had considerable room for a further rate cut as needed.
Although there wasn’t yet a clear case for a policy easing, the recent weakness in the labour market had us getting closer to actually projecting a couple of additional quarter point cuts."
Now, in both countries, Shenfeld said, the inflationary impacts of higher oil prices will have their central banks much less willing to give their economies quick interest rate relief, even if we see evidence of disappointing growth or climbing unemployment.
CIBC has pushed back any Fed rate cuts until the fall, and even then, Shenfeld added, we’ll need oil prices to have reversed course to make that happen and have core inflation momentum moving past the one-off lift from tariffs.
"For now," Shenfeld said, "a delay in interest rate relief isn’t that worrisome, because the US economy is still not far from full employment.
That’s not the case in Canada, and the Governor conceded that risks to the Bank’s already mediocre growth outlook were tilted to the downside.
Higher incomes for energy producers aren’t likely to trigger a quick upturn in capital spending or job creation in that sector, but higher pump prices will squeeze Canadian consumers who are already concerned about job prospects.
Yet with inflation about to jump again, the Governor’s tone suggests that he’ll be standing his ground even if we did see additional upside in unemployment."
"That said," Shenfeld added, "unlike market participants, we aren’t worried about the Governor beating up on an already fragile Canadian economy by hiking rates this year.
The market’s pricing for two or more hikes seems inconsistent with January 2027 WTI oil futures back down to the mid-$70s, or with an economy that, unlike the US, entered this year with considerable economic slack.
We may have lost some downside protection for growth, but in any scenario in which the economy is soft, the Bank of Canada can let that economic slack do the job of preventing oil prices from spilling over into sustained core inflation."
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Turmoil in the Middle East sparked fresh losses in stocks and bonds, with fears about an escalation of the war in Iran boosting oil prices as anxiety builds around the potential economic fallout of the conflict.
The drop in equities deepened, with the S&P 500 falling 1.5% as CBS reported the Pentagon is preparing to deploy ground forces into Iran.
President Donald Trump said the US can have a dialog, but he doesn’t want a ceasefire.
Speculation grew the US is weighing a plan to seize Kharg Island, but Trump was evasive about his plans for the major oil-export hub. Brent topped $112.
As Treasury yields climbed, traders priced in a 50% chance of a Federal Reserve hike by October.
Gold saw its worst week in four decades.
Markets have been rocked by disruption to supply out of the Persian Gulf, with the Strait of Hormuz near a standstill.
A third the size of Manhattan, Kharg Island could be taken over quickly and serve as crucial leverage in the campaign to get Tehran to release its blockade of the waterway.
US officials say the White House is sending hundreds of Marines to the Middle East.
Trump again lashed out at military allies, including North Atlantic Treaty Organization members as well as China, for refusing to help unblock the Strait that helps carry roughly a fifth of global oil and natural gas flows.
“Investors initially thought that the Iran war would be short,” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers.
“But as aggressions intensify amid no light at the end of the tunnel, the pain on Wall Street continues.”
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he’s cautious about how elevated oil prices will impact inflation, though jobs weakness may still warrant rate cuts.
Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman told Fox Business she supports three reductions in 2026 and expects strong growth but is keeping an eye on the war.
“The Fed is caught between slowing growth and renewed inflation pressure, with neither side clearly dominant,” said Julia Hermann at New York Life Investment Management.
“The stock market remains in negative territory for the year, and has made new 2026 lows this week, which suggests that the market may not have yet found its bottom and is still in the process of sorting out and pricing in the duration of the Middle East conflict,” said David Laut at Kerux Financial.
Since the outbreak of the war, the S&P 500 has fallen about 5.5%.
The gauge posted its fourth straight week of losses, the longest such streak in a year.
Traditional havens are not protecting investors, with bonds losing value as traders react to inflation and federal budget concerns while gold has tumbled, noted Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
Money market funds are the safe haven of choice, Hackett added, suggesting investors are parking money on the sidelines rather than engaging in a structural allocation shift.
Bond traders are scrambling for a new strategy after the oil shock triggered scuppered a popular wager on Fed cuts.
By Friday, sentiment had flipped to such a degree that traders now bet the central bank might need to hike to combat inflation.
“We disagree with this assessment as the spike in oil prices should delay Fed rate cuts amid stag flationary pressures, but a sufficient move higher in oil could create a financial conditions shock that may require the Fed to respond with cuts,” said Gennadiy Goldberg at TD Securities.
Corporate Highlights:
* FedEx Corp. rose on a bullish profit forecast that signaled the plan to restructure its delivery network is gaining traction.
* The US charged a Super Micro Computer Inc. co-founder with illegally diverting billions of dollars in Nvidia Corp.-powered servers to China.
* Nvidia Corp.’s $20 billion licensing deal with Groq is being probed by a pair of Democratic senators over whether it violates antitrust laws.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“The Iran conflict has triggered an abrupt repricing of monetary policy expectations, created tighter financial conditions and leaving the S&P 500 at risk of turning a controlled drawdown into a full correction.”
—Michael Ball, Macro Strategist, Markets Live
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.9%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1%
* The MSCI World Index fell 1.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.5%
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1561
* The British pound fell 0.7% to $1.3338
* The Japanese yen fell 1% to 159.29 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.6% to $70,093.31
* Ether fell 0.7% to $2,132.06
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 13 basis points to 4.38%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced eight basis points to 3.04%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 15 basis points to 4.99%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.5% to $97.94 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 3.2% to $4,501.70 an ounce
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.
Be magnificent!
As ever,
Carolann
In the end, we’ll all become stories. –Margaret Atwood, b.1939.
Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828