March 10, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.

March 10, 1862: Paper money issued in the US.
March 10, 1965: The United States landed about 3,500 Marines in South Vietnam (entering the war). Go to article.
March 10,2000: Dotcom bubble bursts when the NASDAQ Composite index peaks at 5408.60. The NASDAQ closed today at 17,468.32.

Sharon Stone, actress, b. 1958.

Is there really a difference between male and female brains? Emerging science is revealing the answer.  Read More.

29,000-year-old remains of child unearthed in Thailand cave with ‘symbols of blood and power’
The skeleton of a Stone Age child discovered in Thailand is rewriting what experts know about the prehistory of the area. Read More.

‘In that moment, that was everything to me’: Patient describes joy of regaining vision in 1 eye after new stem cell therapy
A first-of-its-kind stem cell transplant has changed the life of a man who was left blind in one eye following a firework accident. Read More.

World’s 1st modular quantum computer that can operate at room temperature goes online
Scientists have built the first networked quantum computer using photons, demonstrating that room-temperature modules can be connected and scaled up. Read More.

Jumbo jet becomes Las Vegas party venue
The cockpit and fuselage section of a decommissioned Boeing 747 jumbo jet will be transformed into a nightlife venue in the Vegas entertainment district known as AREA15.
Vacation-style beaches on Mars?
The red planet may have once hosted an ocean with waves that lapped against sandy beaches some 3.6 billion years ago, according to recently published data from China’s now-defunct Mars rover.

The most visited US National Park sites in 2024 are …
US National Park Service sites had a record-setting number of visitors last year. Here are the places that saw the biggest crowds in 2024.

The quest for better sleep
If Daylight Saving Time has you groggy today, maybe you need to up your pre-sleep routine. “Sleepmaxxing” is the latest trend to get better rest, but some of the tips are questionable. Here’s what experts suggest.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Maloja, Switzerland
Skiers in the Engadin Skimarathon, a 42km cross-country event that attracts 14,000 participants
Photograph: Peter Klaunzer/AP

Falkirk, UK
Louise Marshall, known as Scotland’s national piper, plays at the sculpture The Kelpies in Falkirk ahead of International Bagpipe Day on 10 March
Photograph: Jane Barlow/PA

​​​​​​​Tunceli, Turkey
A pair of storks in their nest on top of an electricity pole in the Pertek district. The storks have made the precarious perch their home for the past six years and have not migrated
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for March 10^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
The authority of a thousand is not worth the humble reasoning of a single individual. -Galileo Galilei, 1564-1642.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 1.5% at 24,380.71 in Toronto.
The index dropped to the lowest closing level since Nov. 4 after the previous session’s increase of 0.7%.
Today, financials stocks led the market lower, as 8 of 11 sectors lost; 178 of 220 shares fell, while 42 rose.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 6.9%.
Whitecap Resources Inc. had the largest drop, falling 14.6%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss six times. The next day, it declined four times for an average 1.4% and advanced twice for an average 1%
* This quarter, the index fell 1.4%, heading for the biggest decline since the third quarter of 2023
* The index advanced 12% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 8.9% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 5.8% below its 52-week high on Jan. 30, 2025 and 13.6% above its low on June 17, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 2.5% in the past 5 days and fell 5% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.4 on a trailing basis and 14.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.9% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.99t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 14.65% compared with 14.11% in the previous session and the average of 11.76% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -126.2797| -1.6| 0/25
Information Technology| -118.4240| -4.8| 0/10
Materials | -83.0055| -2.6| 1/48
Industrials | -61.5729| -2.0| 6/22
Real Estate | -9.8533| -2.1| 2/18
Consumer Staples | -8.2974| -0.9| 4/6
Consumer Discretionary| -8.1914| -1.0| 2/9
Health Care | -0.3906| -0.6| 2/2
Utilities | 3.3822| 0.4| 6/9
Communication Services| 9.1856| 1.5| 4/1
Energy | 25.3987| 0.6| 15/28
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -84.3500| -6.9| 40.5| -12.5
Canadian Pacific Kansas | -27.9400| -3.8| 65.1| 3.1
Brookfield Corp | -22.2200| -3.0| 68.9| -12.1
Pembina Pipeline | 5.0470| 2.3| 175.0| 4.7
TC Energy | 5.9670| 1.2| 149.5| -0.4
Enbridge | 19.0900| 2.1| 11.0| 1.0
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Anxiety that tariffs and government firings will torpedo growth in the world’s largest economy extended a three-week stretch of volatility across global markets.
American stocks got hammered as Wall Street tempered bullish views while demand for recession havens boosted sovereign bonds.
A selloff in the S&P 500’s most influential group — big tech — weighed heavily on trading.
The gauge extended its plunge from a record to 8.6% while the Nasdaq 100 saw its worst plunge since 2022.
A gauge of the Magnificent Seven mega caps tumbled 5.4%.
Treasury yields slid on bets that an economic slowdown would force the Federal Reserve to slash interest rates.
Bitcoin slipped below $80,000.
Speculation is intensifying that President Donald Trump is willing to tolerate hardship in the economy and markets in pursuit of long-term goals involving tariffs and smaller government.
Asked on Fox News’ Sunday Morning Futures whether he’s expecting a recession, he said, “I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition, because what we’re doing is very big.”
“We’ve gone from animal spirits to what are the odds of a recession,” said Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group.
“This is a headline-driven market; one that could change in an hour. Sit tight. Buckle up. We finally have the correction we were waiting for, and long-term investors will be rewarded again.”
Traders also kept a close eye on something that hasn’t happened with the US equity benchmark since November 2023 – a close below the key 200-day moving average.
“There’s a saying on Wall Street about how nothing good happens below the 200-day moving average,” said Callie Cox at Ritholtz Wealth Management.
“Honestly, out of all the crazy sayings that come out of this industry, it’s one you should take seriously. Selloffs accelerate and swings get dramatically bigger in the danger zone – or the space below the 200-day moving average.”
The S&P 500 dropped 2.7%.
The Nasdaq 100 lost 3.8%.
In the mega cap space, Tesla Inc. sank 15% while Nvidia Corp. drove a closely watched gauge of chipmakers toward the lowest since April.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.1%.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries slid eight basis points to 4.22%.
The dollar rose 0.2%.
About 10 high-grade companies delayed US corporate bond sales on Monday.
West Texas Intermediate dipped to trade below $66 a barrel, down more than 15% from its mid-January peak.
“I’ll also note that many of the biggest selloffs we’ve seen in the stock market have started with growth scares and job market worries,” said Cox.
“Considering the disappointing data we’ve seen over the past few days, I’d be a little more cautious here if your timeframe is a matter of days, weeks or months. Get defensive and hug your value stocks. Prioritize portfolio balance.”
The latest moves mark an abrupt about-face for markets, where the dominant driver of the last few years had been the surprising resilience of the US economy even as growth weakened overseas.
That’s shaking the aura of economic and market exceptionalism that has dominated for more than a decade.
“This is a period of high uncertainty on a global macro scale – and as a result, we continue to see de-risking in US stocks,” said Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott.
“Added to the potential geopolitical disruptors are the ongoing narratives of inflation, growth, and now potential recession (exacerbated by tariff wars) in the US.”
The talk of tariffs is in a lot of ways worse than the implementation of them, according to David Bahnsen, chief investment officer at The Bahnsen Group, “I do not believe the administration knows how the tariff situation will play out, but if I were a betting man, I would say that it will persist long enough to do damage to economic activity for at least a quarter or two, and ultimately result in a deal with different countries that make everyone wonder why we went through all the fuss,” Bahnsen said.
He also noted that if a tax cut extension and further tax reform bill is passed through budget reconciliation sooner than later, that will help “offset the damage.”
A chorus of Wall Street strategists is warning about higher stock volatility, with Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson the latest to sound the alarm on economic growth worries.
Other market forecasters including at JPMorgan Chase & Co. and RBC Capital Markets have also tempered bullish calls for 2025 as Trump’s tariffs stoke fears of slowing economic growth.
“There are always multiple forces at work in the market, but right now, almost all of them are taking a back seat to tariffs,” said Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.
“Until there’s more clarity on trade policy, traders and investors should anticipate continued volatility.”
To Sam Stovall at CFRA, how long this period of investor caution persists depends on how quickly it will take the global trade clouds, and the resulting threat of recession, to dissipate.
“Markets continue to prove sensitive to trade policy, as considerable uncertainty remains over the size and scope of tariffs to be implemented,” said Jason Pride and Michael Reynolds at Glenmede.
“Just as important may be how long the tariffs stay on. Are they temporary in order to extract concessions, or are they a new permanent fixture of US trade policy?”
From rookie retail traders to hedge fund pros, no one knows what the eventual cost of Trump’s sweeping policies really are.
His pro-growth plans were tax cuts, deregulation and energy dominance.
Tariffs were supposed to bring manufacturing back to the US and create jobs. But so far there’s little evidence of that.
All of this has mom-and-pop investors spooked.
For the first time since 2022, the majority of individual investors say they believe stock prices will drop over the next six months, according to a survey by the American Association of Individual Investors.
Fewer than 20% say they expect prices to rise over that period.
“Here again we would reiterate that despite sentiment indicators like the AAII bull/bears numbers showing excessive bearishness from retail (newsletter writers), actual positioning of both Main Street and institutional investors remains skewed toward long equities,” said Wantrobski.
“ This implies that there could be more firepower to unwind if our unstable macro landscape persists in the coming weeks/months.”
Mark Hackett at Nationwide says he has greater confidence that we are near a bottom rather than on the cusp of a new wave of selling.
“We do need to keep an eye on the pessimistic scenario though, where labor market fears and consumer pullbacks could lead to stagflation, but the proof will be in the datapoints that come out over the next few weeks,” he noted.
“If key risks like the debt ceiling, government shutdown, and tariffs resolve in a better-than-worst-case scenario, and economic data remains stable, we could see a recovery follow this selloff.”
Selling pressure coming from so-called systematic funds, which take cues from the market direction rather than fundamentals, could soon ebb, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s trading desk.
Meanwhile, TD Securities and Citigroup Inc. say it’s already happening.
The actions of this set of quick-twitch, algorithm-driven investors is important because their aggressive offloading of shares has been a headwind contributing to the market’s tumble of late.
TD says that selling across systematic funds may already have peaked, with commodity trading advisers, or CTAs, capitulating on the majority of their long positions. 

Key events this week:
* Japan GDP, household spending, money stock, Tuesday
* US job openings, Tuesday
* Canada rate decision, Wednesday
* US CPI, Wednesday
* Eurozone industrial production, Thursday
* US PPI, initial jobless claims, Thursday
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday?

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 2.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 3.8%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.1%
* The MSCI World Index fell 2.4%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 5.4%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 2.7%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro was little changed at $1.0831
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.2876
* The Japanese yen rose 0.5% to 147.29 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 5% to $78,902.7
* Ether fell 8.8% to $1,866.6
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined eight basis points to 4.22%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.83%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.64%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.6% to $65.97 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.8% to $2,884.98 an ounce

–With assistance from Sujata Rao and Catherine Bosley.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Success is peace of mind which is a direct result of self-satisfaction in knowing you did your best to become the best you are capable of becoming. –John Wooden, 1910-2010.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
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www.carolannsteinhoff.com