June 3, 2024 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.
June 3, 1492:Martin Behaim presents the world’s first globe.  The German geographer called his terrestrial globe Erdapfel, or Earth Apple.
On June 3, 1965, astronaut Edward White became the first American to “walk” in space, during the flight of Gemini 4.  Go to article >>

1972: First U.S. female Rabbi ordained.
Curtis Mayfield, soul musician, b.1942.
Allen Ginsberg, writer, b. 1926.
Jefferson Davis, confederate leader, b. 1808.

Simone Biles dominates, winning record-extending 9th all-around national title
The champion gymnast scored another major win ahead of the Olympic Trials later this month.

Rupert Murdoch ties the knot — for the fifth time
The 93-year-old billionaire married his 67-year-old partner, retired molecular biologist Elena Zhukova. See a photo of the newlyweds.

Adele scolds audience member at her Las Vegas concert
Adele had a profanity-laced response after a heckler made an anti-Pride Month comment during her concert.

‘Swicy’ is the hottest trend in food right now
Several food and beverage companies — including Starbucks — are bringing the heat this summer with spicier products.

France welcomes WWII vets ahead of grand D-Day commemoration
Dozens of veterans will be guests of honor at events in Normandy this week to commemorate the 80th anniversary of D-Day. Officials say they are going to incredible lengths to treat veterans like royalty.

Wreck of WWII ‘Hit ‘Em Harder’ submarine, which sank with 79 crew on board, discovered in South China Sea
The U.S. wreck is the grave site of the 79 crew who died when the sub was sunk in battle in 1944. Read More.

The 165-year reign of oil is coming to an end. But will we ever be able to live without it? Read More.

Mars is more prone to devastating asteroid impacts than we thought, new study hints
Potentially hazardous asteroids pose a risk to Mars missions, but they can also yield insight into the history of the Red Planet and the early solar system, new research suggests. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Liverpool, UK
Cunard’s new ship Queen Anne sails into the River Mersey before a naming ceremony at Liverpool Pier Head, as part of an introductory ‘lap of honour’ voyage around the British Isles
Photograph: Peter Byrne/PA

Carentan les Marais, France
MH-60 Blackhawk helicopters fly over as part of the D-day commemorations to mark the 80th anniversary and the Battle of Normandy
Photograph: Lou Benoist/aFP/AFP/Getty Images

Jammu, India
A labourer pours water over his head as he bathes on a hot summer day against the setting sun
Photograph: Mukesh Gupta/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for June 3^rd, 2024

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

MARKET Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1775: The national debt of the U.S. was born, as the Continental Congress authorized a loan of 6 million pounds sterling to buy gunpowder.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.7% at 22,116.69 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 0.9%.
Today, energy stocks led the market lower, as 6 of 11 sectors lost; 121 of 222 shares fell, while 99 rose.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 4.6%.
Baytex Energy Corp. had the largest drop, falling 6.6%.
Insights
* This quarter, the index was little changed
* The index advanced 10% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 23% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.9% below its 52-week high on May 21, 2024 and 18.3% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 1.1% in the past 5 days and rose 0.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.8 on a trailing basis and 15.4 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.53t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 10.69% compared with 10.47% in the previous session and the average of 9.45% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -119.9431| -2.9| 4/36
Industrials | -25.5619| -0.8| 9/18
Financials | -18.4105| -0.3| 11/16
Materials | -3.8303| -0.1| 22/28
Consumer Discretionary| -1.1124| -0.1| 8/5
Health Care | -0.8427| -1.4| 1/3
Communication Services| 2.4641| 0.3| 5/0
Real Estate | 3.1188| 0.7| 12/7
Consumer Staples | 3.4769| 0.4| 10/1
Information Technology| 3.9798| 0.2| 6/4
Utilities | 4.2478| 0.5| 11/3
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Natural Resources | -36.0000| -4.6| 33.4| 15.1
Suncor Energy | -23.8600| -4.8| 64.4| 24.8
Cenovus Energy | -16.0100| -6.1| 21.1| 21.5
Shopify | 6.1770| 0.9| -46.9| -21.1
Barrick Gold | 6.2720| 2.2| 55.0| -0.8
GFL Environmental | 6.9760| 10.4| 347.4| 3.7
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Bonds climbed after as a weak manufacturing reading fueled speculation the Federal Reserve will have room to cut interest rates this year.
Stocks fluctuated as a rise in tech outweighed a plunge in energy producers.
Longer-dated Treasuries outperformed after data showed US factory activity shrank at a faster pace as output came close to stagnating.
“The Manufacturing ISM data reaffirmed several prevailing economic trends: decelerating inflation, slowing growth, and a tight labor market,” said Gary Pzegeo at CIBC Private Wealth US.
“We should see higher odds of a rate cut later this year priced into interest rate futures.”
US 10-year yields slid nine basis points to 4.4%.
The S&P 500 hovered near 5,280.
A technical issue at the New York Stock Exchange resulted in erroneous trading volatility halts earlier Monday.
Oil tumbled as OPEC+ unexpectedly rolled out a plan to restore some production to the market this year.
Bitcoin briefly topped $70,000.
“Thank goodness it’s Monday – at least from a bond-bullish perspective,” said Ian Lyngen and Vail Hartman at BMO Capital Markets. “There have been a few signs of stumbling in the real economy, albeit primarily on the consumption side. As a result, investors are on guard for indications that the downside trajectory is accelerating.”
With earnings season mostly in the rearview mirror, traders will focus on whether inflation is cooling or is stuck in a loop that will leave interest rates in “higher-for-longer’ limbo,” according to Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley. “This week’s jobs report represents the next big test.”
In fact, traders will also be focused on a slew of labor-market readings this week, including Friday’s payrolls figures.
That’s ahead of next week’s Fed decision, with US policymakers expected to continue signaling no rush to cut rates.
Swap contracts tied to upcoming meetings continue to fully price in a quarter-point rate cut in December, with the odds of a move as soon as September edging up to around 50% and November also given high odds.
“Additional cooling in job openings this week would also help to bring home the message that the labor market is no longer a meaningful threat for near-term inflation dynamics,” said Oscar Munoz at TD Securities.
Macroeconomic signals suggest a coming slowdown or even a recession, but investors don’t seem concerned based on lofty stock market valuations and continuing positive sentiment, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Marko Kolanovic.
Risks from an increase in unemployment over past year, drop in home sales, and nearly two years of yield curve inversion are being shrugged off, with equity indexes at or near all-time highs, he noted.
Upside for stocks will be limited during the summer due to an “inconsistency” between expectations for disinflation alongside a belief in “no landing” and earnings strength.
Meantime, Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson says his bull case is in play, for now.
Rising government debt will continue to fuel spending and inflate asset prices in the short-term — including equities — as long as the bond market doesn’t signal any tension.
A contrarian equity sentiment indicator from Bank of America Corp. jumped by the most since late 2023 in May to a two-year high, indicating that negative attitudes toward US stocks are no longer a tailwind.
The so-called Sell-Side Indicator (SSI), a gauge that measures Wall Street strategists’ average recommended US equity allocations, posted the largest increase since December last month, BofA head of US equity and quantitative strategy Savita Subramanian said in a note to clients Monday.
“Extreme bearish sentiment is no longer a tailwind for the index, arguing for a tilt toward active stock selection strategies,” she wrote.

Corporate Highlights:
* GameStop Corp. surged as the Reddit account that drove the meme-stock mania of 2021 posted what appeared to be a $116 million position in the video-game retailer.
* Nvidia Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc.’s chiefs showcased new generations of the chips powering the global boom in AI development, deepening a rivalry that may decide the direction of artificial intelligence design and adoption.
* JetBlue Airways Corp.’s sales performance for this quarter will be somewhat better than expected as the carrier works to improve operations and capitalize on “healthy overall demand trends.”
* Skydance Media plans to offer $23 a share to investors in Paramount Global’s voting stock as part of its plan to merge with the film and TV giant, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
* Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square aims to raise $25 billion for a new closed-end fund targeting US retail investors, which would more than double the fee-paying assets the firm manages, according to people with direct knowledge of the plans.
* A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, a bellwether for global trade, raised its full-year profit forecast, saying the congestion in the Red Sea is having a larger than previously expected impact on the world’s supply lines, which in turn is boosting freight rates.

Key events this week:
* US factory orders, JOLTS, Tuesday
* China Caixin services PMI, Wednesday
* Eurozone S&P Global Services PMI, PPI, Wednesday
* Canada rate decision, Wednesday
* US ISM services, Wednesday
* Eurozone retail sales, ECB rate decision, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, trade, Thursday
* China trade, forex reserves, Friday
* Eurozone GDP, Friday
* US unemployment rate, nonfarm payrolls, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
The S&P 500 Index increased 0.1% to 5,283.40 as of 4 p.m. New York time.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.3% to 38,571.03.
The Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 0.6% to 16,828.67.
The MSCI All-Country World Index advanced 0.5% to 789.11.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed at 1,251.67.
The euro increased 0.5% to $1.09.
The British pound increased 0.5% to $1.2803.
The Japanese yen appreciated 0.7% to 156.25 per dollar.
Bitcoin advanced 2.1% to $69,186.
Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries dipped 10 basis points to 4.40%.
Britain’s 10-year yield declined 10 basis points to 4.221%.
Germany’s 10-year yield dipped eight basis points to 2.58%.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude sank 3.8% to $74.05 a barrel.
Gold strengthened 0.9% to $2,347.48 an ounce.
-Rita Nazareth in New York

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Convictions are more dangerous foes of truth than lies. –Friedrich Wilhelm Nietzsche, 1844-1900.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com