June 26th, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.
June 26, 1974: The first barcode is scanned on a pack of chewing gum in Ohio.  It revolutionizes retail and modern inventory systems.
June 26, 2000: Rival scientific teams completed the first rough map of the human genetic code. Go to article

Abner Doubleday, invented baseball, b. 1819.
Pearl S. buck, writer, b. 1892.

Job boards in trouble
It’s not just job seekers who are struggling. Monster and CareerBuilder have filed for bankruptcy.

No sailing into the sunset
A former jewelry store manager in the UK was recently sentenced to prison after stealing more than $170,000 in diamonds, gold, silver, jewelry and cash from her employer. You’ll never guess how she got caught.

Bumble stumbles
As younger users abandon online dating apps, companies like Bumble are being forced to lay off hundreds of workers and put a stronger emphasis on AI to find compatible matches.

1,000-year-old weapon goes on display
The well-preserved iron sword, which was discovered during a dredging operation of a Dutch river, has been donated to the Rijksmuseum van Oudheden (National Museum of Antiquities) in Leiden. 

‘God-king’ born from incest in ancient Ireland wasn’t a god or a king, new study finds
A closer look at the burial of a man born of incest 5,000 years ago reveals he was unlikely to have been a god-king. Read More.

Zombie NASA satellite emits powerful radio pulse after 60 years of silence
Last year, astronomers detected a powerful burst of radio waves from within our galaxy. Researchers now say it came from NASA’s defunct Relay 2 satellite —
but they’re not sure what caused it. Read More.

‘A first in applied physics’: Breakthrough quantum computer could consume 2,000 times less power than a supercomputer and solve problems 200 times faster
Scientists have built a compact physical qubit with built-in error correction, and now say it could be scaled into a 1,000-qubit machine that is small enough to fit inside a data center. They plan to release this machine in 2031. Read More.

Fungus that may have caused ‘King Tut’s curse’ shows promise in treating cancer
Scientists have found that a deadly tomb fungus called Aspergillus flavus may hold the key to promising new treatments for leukemia. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Glastonbury, UK
People with flowerpots as heads are seen during the Glastonbury Festival at Worthy Farm in Somerset
Photograph: Ben Birchall/PA
Bath, UK
A gull flies over the Roman bath. The site consists of four main parts: a sacred spring, a temple, a bathing area plus what is now a museum. More than a million tourists visit annually, although they are prohibited from entering the water
Photograph: Nurettin Boydak/Anadolu/Getty Images
Dunsden, UK
A hoverfly rests on the seed pod of a poppy in the humid afternoon weather in south Oxfordshire.
Photograph: Geoffrey Swaine/Shutterstock
Market Closes for June 26^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
There was a tie when a fool and his money were soon parted, but now it happens to everybody. –Adlai Stevenson, 1900-1965.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.7% at 26,751.95 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 0.8% on June 2 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.6%.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.1%.
Novagold Resources Inc. had the largest increase, rising 10.8%.
Today, 158 of 213 shares rose, while 50 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 7.4%
* This month, the index rose 2.2%
* So far this week, the index rose 1%
* The index advanced 23% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.1% below its 52-week high on June 24, 2025 and 23.5% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.9% in the past 5 days and rose 2.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.1 on a trailing basis and 17 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.3t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.43% compared with 6.52% in the previous session and the average of 6.93% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | 67.3537| 0.8| 18/7
Materials | 61.6404| 1.7| 41/6
Energy | 42.0022| 1.0| 33/7
Industrials | 28.6935| 0.8| 27/2
Utilities | 2.6993| 0.3| 8/6
Real Estate | 1.7813| 0.4| 9/8
Health Care | 0.3425| 0.5| 2/0
Consumer Discretionary | -0.3300| 0.0| 7/2
Consumer Staples | -0.6660| -0.1| 6/4
Communication Services | -3.2690| -0.6| 2/3
Information Technology | -14.6176| -0.6| 5/5
RBC | 18.6800| 1.1| 19.4| 2.5
Bank of Montreal | 12.8500| 1.7| 117.3| 6.7
Teck Resources | 12.7100| 7.9| 60.1| -2.9
Nutrien | -4.4360| -1.6| -16.3| 23.1
Dollarama | -4.5730| -1.2| -4.0| 36.0
Shopify | -16.6900| -1.3| 76.6| 0.8
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange on Thursday posted its second record close of the week amid scant signs investor interest in Canadian stocks is slowing.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index put yesterday’s dip behind it and closed up 185.63 points, or 0.7%, to 26,751.95, beating the proir record close of 26,718.62 on Tuesday.
Most sectors were higher Thursday, with Base Metals, up 5%, posting the biggest gain on the day.
No other sector was up even by as much as 1%, while no sector fell by as much 1% either.
According to Dow Jones Market Data, FactSet the TSX went into Thursday’s session up near 6% from the Jan.20 U.S. Inauguration Day close of 25067.92.
It was also up 1.5% month to date, and 7.4% year to date heading in to today.
Canadian investors have largely ignored market noise around a potential global trade war and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East to post a series of record closing highs this year and it can be assumed that they are keen on investment ideas.
Just as a source of information and potential ideas for stock pickers, and not as a promotion for Rosenberg Research, MT Newswires Canada notes Market Strategist Marius Jongstra published a note showcasing a sector rotation investing strategy based on its monthly ‘Strategizer’ report.
Available as part of both U.S. and Canadian equity models, Jongstra said Rosenberg Research sector rankings can be deployed in a portfolio either as a source of idea generation for bottom-up stock pickers or via a rotation model using existing ETFs.
He identifies two strategies that can be followed depending on how active an investor wishes to be, either by creating an equal-weighted portfolio of its top picks rebalanced monthly, or by simply doing the same at the beginning of each year and holding for 12 months.
Jongstra noted the first approach is “much more active”.
Rosenberg Research take its top sector rankings (it split its list in thirds, making the “top” ranks the first four sectors, including ties) and creates an equally weighted portfolio at the beginning of each month (25% in each; less if there are ties).
This process is repeated every month, rebalancing accordingly based on how the top picks shift with the latest monthly update.
Since launch at the end of 2020, this strategy, as of the end of May, would have generated a cumulative price return of 77% based on the Rosenberg Research U.S. picks, compared to 63% for the S&P 500, and 65% in Canada, against 52% for the TSX, Jongstra said.
Rosenberg Research awaits finalized monthly performance for June, but Jongstra said it entered the month with Communication Services, Utilities, Health Care, and Financials as the top picks in the U.S. With Canada, it was Materials, Industrials/Financials (tied), and Health Care/Communication Services (tied).
Jongstra noted the month to date performances have been +1.2% and +2.1%, respectively, compared to the +3.2% and +2.0% advance in the S&P 500 and TSX.
“For this strategy to work, it requires a dedicated amount of time to shifting the portfolio positions and will incur trading costs and taxes (if in a taxable account).
These are all considerations worth mentioning,” Jongstra added.
Jongstra said those not inclined to continually rebalance the portfolio on a monthly basis can take a “less active approach”.
He asked: “Strategizer’s premise is based on evaluating risk/reward on a forward 12-month basis … so why not just buy the top-ranked sectors and hold them for a given year?” He presented the results of doing so at the beginning of each year, based on the first report published in January.
With four full years of data on hand, Jongstra said the cumulative gain from simply creating an equal-weighted portfolio at the beginning of each year and rebalancing annually would have come in at 76.4% for the S&P 500 sector picks and 54.3% for the TSX.
Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed with a small gain on Thursday, rising for a second day on signs of solid U.S. summer demand and a falling dollar while the market is eyeing coming supply hikes from OPEC+.
WTI crude oil for August delivery closed up $0.32 to settle at US$65.24 per barrel, while August Brent crude was down US$0.14 to US$67.54.
Gold edged higher late afternoon on Thursday as the dollar fell to the lowest in more than three years on expectations the Federal Reserve will move to cut interest rates this year despite concerns over the central bank’s independence amid attacks from U.S. President Donald Trump.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up $1.50 to US$3,344.60 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street’s renewed push toward all-time highs saw stock investors setting aside recent geopolitical fears amid hopes that a resumption of Federal Reserve rate cuts will fuel the outlook for the economy and Corporate America.
Treasury yields fell alongside the dollar.
A nearly $10 trillion surge in the S&P 500 from the edge of a bear market put the gauge briefly above its Feb. 19 closing peak of 6,144.15.
The benchmark ended just shy of that mark at 6,141.02. Big tech led gains.
Banks climbed as a veteran analyst said that as long as there’s no recession, it’s “game on” for the shares.
A closely watched gauge of stock volatility – the VIX – slid to 16.59 after topping 52 at the height of April’s tariff-fueled turmoil.
“The stock market is back at record highs as various uncertainties start to fade,” said Paul Stanley at Granite Bay Wealth Management.
“The market is betting on continued progress on trade, and a de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East is giving investors’ confidence.”
Bonds climbed after economic data releases reinforced bets that the Fed will cut interest rates at least twice this year.
Traders are already fully pricing in two cuts by year-end, starting in September, and wagers on a third reduction could gain momentum if next week’s jobs report is weak.
A dollar gauge closed at the lowest since 2022.
Consumer spending grew in the first quarter at the weakest pace since the onset of the pandemic.
As a result, gross domestic product slid at a downwardly revised 0.5% annualized rate.
Recurring applications for unemployment benefits rose to the highest since 2021 – but initial claims fell.
“The economy is slowing, but remains resilient,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
“While the numbers as a whole don’t necessarily make a compelling case for bulls or bears, for the time being, the market appears fixated on tech strength and the S&P 500’s potential return to record levels.”
Read: Treasury Deal Halts ‘Revenge Tax’ That Spooked Wall Street While it’s very encouraging to see stocks back near record highs, there are plenty of questions on the next catalyst needed to propel the market further from here, according to Stanley at Granite Bay Wealth Management.
“In mid-July, earnings season begins, and that will act as a more concrete gauge on how companies have grappled with tariff uncertainty during the months of April and May, which were months with extreme headline risk,” he said.
“The biggest risk right now isn’t missing out — it’s overreacting to short-term news, which could cause harmful investing mistakes.”
To Bret Kenwell at eToro, investors want to see two things come out of the second quarter: Better-than-expected earnings growth and a rebound to positive annualized GDP growth.
“If the latter is achieved, the US will avoid the technical definition of a recession,” Kenwell said.
“Further, if management tells a good story about the consumer and current business trends, it should give investors further reassurance.”
As the US stock market nears a fresh all-time high, retail investors are piling into equities.
The group purchased a net $3.2 billion of stocks in the five-day period through Wednesday’s close, according to data compiled by JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Emma Wu.
Another aspect of the rally to all-time highs is that investors are rushing into speculative and volatile edges of the stock market.
“This is the very beginning of a period of FOMO that happens in the late stages of every structural bull market — every single one,” said Julian Emanuel at Evercore ISI.
“What we are surprised by is the speed at which speculation has been embraced given the record bearishness just a little over two months ago and also in light of what continues to be significant economic and policy uncertainty.”
With tech stocks powering major US indexes toward record highs, technical analysts see the makings of a pullback in the coming months unless more sectors join the rally.
The equal- weighted version of the S&P 500, which is often seen as a better reflection of market participation, is about 4% below its record touched in November.
At Barclays Plc, strategists led by Ajay Rajadhyaksha expect stocks to outperform bonds despite the impacts from the trade war.
They say equity investors’ focus is set to shift to economic data and AI from the twin topics of tariffs and the tax bill.
Stock-market volatility is likely to remain higher in the second half of the year given lingering macro and policy uncertainty, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists.
The team led by Andrea Ferrario says stagflationary shocks remain a key risk for balanced portfolios amid tariff-induced inflation risks.
A flurry of Fed officials this week made clear they’ll need a few more months to gain confidence that tariff-driven price hikes won’t raise inflation in a persistent way.
In an interview on Bloomberg Surveillance, San Francisco Fed chief Mary Daly acknowledged she’s seeing increasing evidence that tariffs may not lead to a large or sustained inflation surge.
But that merely made her open to a rate cut “in the fall.”
Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said he expects tariffs will put upward pressure on prices, and the central bank should wait for more clarity before adjusting rates.
Fed Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said she sees at least one cut this year, but indicated July would be too early for such a move.
US PREVIEW: Services to Offset Tariff Bump to Core PCE Inflation US inflation probably inched higher in May, offering scant evidence of extensive tariff-related repercussions the Fed expects to become more apparent later in 2025.
Economists see the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy — the Fed’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation — rising 0.1% in May for a third month.
That would mark the tamest three-month stretch since the pandemic five years ago.
“Friday’s PCE data will help to confirm whether or not the past few months of soft inflation data has staying power,” said Stanley at Granite Bay Wealth Management.
“The market is anxious for validation that inflation is truly easing.
A cooler PCE could give the hope that the Fed will still cut later this year.”
Meantime, a report that President Donald Trump is considering naming Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s successor well before the end of his term also drew investor attention The Wall Street Journal said Trump may reveal his pick to run the central bank by September or October.
“Messaging from a dovish incoming Chair could potentially overshadow the hawkish skew to Powell’s wait-and-see signals,” said Ian Lyngen and Vail Hartman at BMO Capital Markets.
“That certainly appears to be how the market is interpreting the risks as evidenced by the grinding bid for Treasuries.”
The Fed is an institution that will continue carrying out its tasks, but if its independence were in question, then the financial markets will quickly protest, Russell Brownback, a portfolio manager at BlackRock Inc., said on Bloomberg Television Thursday.
“I don’t think the independence of the Fed is in jeopardy,” he said.
“I think the markets would protest any kind of degradation of that independence very quickly.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Nike Inc. sales surpassed analysts’ expectations, showing the world’s largest sportswear company is recovering as it clears inventory to make way for fresher designs.
* Meta Platforms Inc. is in advanced talks to acquire PlayAI, a small startup using artificial intelligence to replicate voices, part of the social media company’s push to nab top talent and catch up in the AI race.
* Apple Inc. had its price target cut at JPMorgan Chase & Co. to $230 from $240 on the iPhone 17’s incremental lineup launch.
* Micron Technology Inc., the top-performing chipmaker on Wall Street this year, delivered an outlook that wasn’t quite rosy enough to keep its 2025 rally going.
* Salesforce Inc. Chief Executive Officer Marc Benioff said his company has automated a significant chunk of work with AI, another example of a firm touting labor-replacing potential of the emerging technology.
* Coinbase Global Inc. shares closed at the highest level ever, capping off a rally fueled by growing acceptance of the cryptocurrency industry on Wall Street and in Washington.
* The leader of UnitedHealth Group Inc.’s Optum Health care delivery unit has left the role, an early indication of management changes under Stephen Hemsley, UnitedHealth’s new chief executive officer.
* Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. reported quarterly profit that beat Wall Street’s expectations, a hopeful sign as the pharmacy giant prepares to transform into a private company after its market value plummeted due to retail competition and lower prescription drug payments from insurance companies.
* Impossible Foods Inc. hopes to add its plant-based burgers to European menus this year, bringing to a close a six-year quest to enter the world’s biggest market for meat alternatives.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.8% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.9%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.9%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.9%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.1%
* KBW Bank Index rose 1.7%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.7%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.5%
* The euro rose 0.4% to $1.1707
* The British pound rose 0.5% to $1.3734
* The Japanese yen rose 0.6% to 144.36 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.3% to $107,533.86
* Ether fell 0.2% to $2,434.57
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 4.24%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.57%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.47%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.8% to $65.44 a barrel
* Spot gold was little changed
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
It takes as much energy to wish as it does to plan. –Eleanor Roosevelt,  1884-1862.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com