June 24th, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: St. Jean Baptiste Day – big holiday in Quebec.  Bannockburn Day, Scotland.
June 24, 1497: Newfoundland discovered.
June 24, 1717: The world’s first Masonic Grand Lodge is established in London, formalizing the  structure of the secretive fraternal society of Freemasonry.
On June 24, 1997, the Air Force released a report on the so-called “Roswell Incident,” suggesting the alien bodies witnesses reported seeing in 1947 were actually life-sized dummies. Go to article.

Jack Dempsey, boxer, b. 1895.

We finally know why Queen Hatshepsut’s statues were destroyed in ancient Egypt
Some of the female pharaoh’s statues were “ritually deactivated,” a new study finds.  Read More.

Hells Canyon caves reveal unexpected finding about America’s deepest gorge.  Read More.

‘Staggering’ first images from Vera C. Rubin Observatory show 10 million galaxies — and billions more are on the way
The first “stunning” images from the Vera C. Rubin Observatory were released yesterday, capturing roughly 10 million galaxies, many of which have never been studied before.  Read More.

New study claims AI ‘understands’ emotion better than us — especially in emotionally charged situations
Common AI models outperformed humans on emotional intelligence in a recent study, but experts caution us to look beyond the headline.  Read More.

Salmon-hat wearing orcas also give each other massages with kelp, scientists discover
Orcas have been spotted giving each other rubdowns with kelp tools, rubbing pieces of the seaweed between their bodies.  Read More.

Selfie screwup
A visitor to the Uffizi Galleries in Florence, Italy, damaged a 17th-century painting after stumbling back into it while posing for a photo.

‘Crazy In Love’
Beyoncé closed out the international portion of her Cowboy Carter tour in Paris with a special guest.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Bucharest, Romania
Girls wearing traditional outfits dance during an event inspired by pre-Christian traditions, in which fairies, called Sanziene in Romanian, come to earth for the summer solstice bringing fertility to land and beings, at the Dimitrie Gusti village museum
Photograph: Andreea Alexandru/AP

A vertical forest growing in the Netherlands
The buildings change color and shape with relation to the season,’ Boeri said. ‘We’re used to thinking of architecture as stable, but these change continuously, and every year is different.’
Photograph: Judith Jockel/The Guardian

Paris, France
The Herds, in which life-size animal puppets fleeing climate breakdown have visited cities on a 12,400-mile (20,000km) trip from Africa to the Arctic Circle, arrives in the French capital, with 100 puppeteers giving life to 40 animals. Their journey ends in Trondheim on 30 July
Photograph: David Levene/The Guardian
Market Closes for June 24^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
The stock market is the only place where the customers don’t buy when the merchandise goes on sale. –Alex Green, b.1958, Chief Investment Strategist, The Oxford Club.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.4%, or 109.26 to 26,718.62 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.0%.
Lightspeed Commerce Inc. had the largest increase, rising 7.0%.
Today, 109 of 213 shares rose, while 101 fell; 8 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 7.2%
* This month, the index rose 2.1%
* The index advanced 22% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 23.8% above its low on June 24, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.7% in the past 5 days and rose 3.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.1 on a trailing basis and 17 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.3t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.18% compared with 6.15% in the previous session and the average of 6.97% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | 85.6095| 1.0| 22/3
Information Technology | 75.8699| 3.0| 9/1
Consumer Staples | 10.4052| 1.0| 10/0
Industrials | 7.1597| 0.2| 25/4
Consumer Discretionary | 6.1940| 0.7| 9/0
Utilities | 1.8034| 0.2| 5/9
Communication Services | 1.2997| 0.2| 2/3
Real Estate | 0.8800| 0.2| 8/9
Health Care | -0.2675| -0.4| 1/2
Energy | -18.5852| -0.4| 8/32
Materials | -61.1042| -1.7| 10/38
Shopify | 51.4200| 4.0| -2.1| 2.6
Brookfield Corp | 23.6500| 2.9| -21.2| 1.9
RBC | 14.4300| 0.8| -7.8| 1.6
Barrick Mining | -8.7720| -2.5| 27.9| 27.2
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | -9.8120| -1.7| 29.6| 47.0
Canadian Natural Resources | -12.5900| -2.0| -23.2| -2.5
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange rose to a fresh record high on Tuesday as markets priced out further any Iranian retaliation against the United States, while signs of moderation in Canada’s inflation have led to a debate about whether this will be enough to put this country’s central bank back on the rate cut path.
Despite lower commodity prices, the resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index ended the session up 109.26 points to 26,718.62, leaving it more than 100 points above the prior record close set on June 12.
Most sectors were higher, led by Info Tech, up 2.5%, and the Battery Metals Index, up near 1.2%,.
But Energy was down near 1.5% and Health Care was flat to slightly lower Rosenberg Research in a note entitled ‘Geopolitics in Focus: Markets Are Pricing Out Further Iranian Retaliation’ noted the U.S. air strikes against Iran were met with a calm reaction from global markets, with oil prices falling significantly on Monday despite Iranian threats to close the Strait of Hormuz.
The research said, “markets are now fully pricing in a de-escalatory scenario, but some tail risks remain”.
With the well-telegraphed strike on a U.S. base in Qatar, and a possible ceasefire, Iran appears to be done with their reactions, it added.
In a separate note, Rosenberg Research said today’s report showing May inflation unchanged at 1.7% was “mixed” but added there was “just enough comforting news” to ensure the Bank of Canada pause last month will not mean an end to the easing cycle.
“All in,” said founder David Rosenberg, “a mixed report and something for everyone.”
“From my lens,” he added, “what is most important is that the ex-mortgage inflation rate is running below target.
Not to mention that inflation is a classic lagging indicator, and with the Canadian economy now flatlining, the output gap is widening again, and the buildup of excess supply will ensure that the disinflation momentum will be renewed in coming months and quarters.
How the tariff file plays out obviously is important, but when the economy builds up slack the business sector feels the brunt via profit margin compression.
Inflation is not all about what the corporate sector wants to charge but what it can get away with charging, and when the unemployment rate trends higher, as is already the case, this ability to pass on any costs becomes seriously constrained by a consumer who will simply revolt by cutting back or delaying their spending activity.”
Elsewhere, David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie Group, noted Canada’s underlying inflation measures moderated in May, with trim/median averaging up 0.21% month over month and 3.0% year over year, “a result that should give the Bank of Canada some comfort following the firm figures for April”.
Doyle noted headline CPI remained at 1.7% annualized, with the energy price decline due to cancellation of the consumer carbon tax continuing to provide relief.
Macquarie expects an “uneven moderation” in underlying inflation ahead.
Doyle noted unemployment has reached 7% and private sector wage growth has “moderated sharply”, while shelter inflation is likely to continue to subside with low population growth a driver.
The recent rebound in the Canadian dollar should also help alleviate pressure on import prices, he noted.
Doyle said today’s data kept the market odds of a July 25 basis point cut at near 33%.
Macquarie continues to see a rate cut as likely to occur in next month, although the decision will hinge on the outcome of the inflation data for June, due on July 15, and the Business Outlook Survey coming July 21.
“We suspect the latter will show a moderation in inflation expectations.
This has already shown up in small business wage and price plans in recent months,” he added.
However, Derek Holt, Head of Capital Markets Economics at Scotiabank, said core inflation remains “too warm” to be contemplating rate cuts.
Holt said: “Ignore the headline CPI reading that continues to be weighed down by the elimination of the consumer portion of the carbon tax; it’s below the 2% target, but the tax distortion makes that meaningless.
The bigger issue here is that underlying price pressures remain too high and rising breadth combines to signal that inflation has yet to be licked.
To twist a phrase, the Bank of Canada shouldn’t even be thinking about thinking about when to cut rates.
Let’s see prospects for a trade and security deal, a Fall budget, and further data first.”
All of this comes as S&P Global Ratings Economics said today in a report titled ‘Economic Outlook Canada Q3 2025: U.S.
Tariff Uncertainty and Slower Population Growth Weigh on Momentum’ that it believes Canada’s economy is still set to slip into below-potential GDP growth in the near term, while avoiding a recession.
Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell for a second day on Tuesday as it cedes a risk premium after the U.S. and Iran backed away from hostilities while Iran and Israel reached a shaky ceasefire agreement.
WTI oil closed $4.14 to settle at US$64.37 per barrel, bringing losses over the past two sessions to US$10.56.
August Brent crude was last seen down $4.19 to US$67.29.
Also, gold prices tumbled with safe-haven demand easing.
Gold for August delivery was last seen down US$60.00 to US$3,335.00 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street bulls drove stocks higher amid easing Middle East tensions and balanced comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on prospects for rate cuts.
Treasury yields and the dollar fell.
Oil tumbled.
The S&P 500 rose 1.1% and the Nasdaq 100 climbed 1.5%, notching its first record since February.
West Texas Intermediate crude plunged nearly 15% over two sessions to settle around $64 a barrel.
In late hours, FedEx Corp. forecast a worse-than-expected profit.
Money markets fully priced in two Fed cuts by the end of 2025, with a first move in September far more likely than next month — even as bets on a July reduction edged up slightly.
“If it turns out that inflation pressures do remain obtained, then we will get to a place where we cut rates, sooner rather than later,” Powell told lawmakers in response to a question about the possibility of a July move.
“But I wouldn’t want to point to a particular meeting.
I don’t think we need to be in any rush because the economy is still strong.”
To Andrew Brenner at Nat Alliance Securities, Powell was unable to “convince markets of hawkishness.”
“The markets are telling Powell that he will be lowering rates much more quickly than he portrayed today,” Brenner noted.
“We just don’t know about July.
We would need a weak payroll report.”
Traders continued to keep a very close eye on Middle East developments.
Israel and Iran appeared to be honoring a ceasefire agreement unexpectedly announced by US President Donald Trump, after the American leader reacted angrily to early breaches of the deal by both sides.
“Markets are finally breathing again,” said Haris Khurshid, chief investment officer at Karobaar Capital.
“The easing in Middle East tensions, paired with Powell striking a more flexible tone, is giving equities room to run and volatility a much-needed pause.”
Powell’s remarks before the House Financial Services Committee came on the heels of the Fed’s decision last week to stay on hold.
He reiterated his view that policymakers need not rush to adjust policy, a counter to recent statements from Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman that signaled the two would be open to lowering rates as soon as July.
At Evercore, Krishna Guha says a “balanced Powell” kept the focus on a September, not a July move.
“For us, the most interesting takeaway was his comment that ‘a couple of cuts or maybe more’ would put the Fed back at neutral,” Guha said.
“The sense that policy is only ‘modestly’ restrictive helps justify holding here while the Fed learns more on the tariff impact on both inflation and employment.”
Fed Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said officials need more clarity on how tariffs will impact prices even as recent inflation data has been “quite positive.”
His New York counterpart John Williams said it’s “entirely appropriate” to hold rates to analyze impacts of policy changes.
Fed Governor Michael Barr said he anticipates tariffs will drive up inflation and expressed support for a wait-and-see approach on rates.
Fed Bank of Cleveland chief Beth Hammack said policymakers may hold borrowing costs steady for some time.
Meantime, Boston Fed President Susan M. Collins said the modestly restrictive stance is necessary.
Powell also said potential changes to a key capital buffer should bolster banks’ roles as intermediaries in the Treasury market.
Bill Gross has bad news for Treasury bulls, and good news for stock investors.
The billionaire investor warned that the 10-year Treasury yield will struggle to dip below 4.25% as ballooning fiscal deficits and a weaker dollar conspire to keep inflation elevated.
On the flipside, according to Gross, equity markets are likely to continue to grind higher driven by the sheer power of the artificial-intelligence era.
“I suggest a ‘little bull market’ for stocks and a ‘little bear market’ for bonds,” the co-founder of Pacific Investment Management Co. wrote in an X post on Tuesday.
“Stocks are AI dominated and continue to suggest 1-2% economic growth.”
The risks facing the stock market are swiftly diminishing as economic growth remains solid despite the turmoil from tariffs and geopolitics.
Equities have been remarkably resilient over the past two months as the S&P 500 bounced sharply from April lows, putting it about 1% away from its record high.
“It’s dangerous for investors to overreact on such events which typically turn out to be entry points rather than lasting selloffs,” Barclays Plc strategist Emmanuel Cau said.
“This could actually end up as a bullish factor for stocks over the medium term.”
Oil plunged for the second straight day as Trump signaled, he wants to keep oil flowing out of Iran after brokering a fragile ceasefire between Tehran and Israel.
Prices have slumped amid the significant de-escalation of a conflict that has rocked the energy-rich Middle East.
Trump said in a social media post that China can continue buying Iranian oil and that he hopes the country will also be purchasing “plenty” from the US.
Crude fell further as both sides made de-escalatory remarks.
“A lot can happen obviously still happen with this war, so nobody is going to send up a ‘Mission Accomplished’ signal,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak.
“However, the risks involved with this conflict have certainly fallen meaningfully over the past few days.”
Having said that, Maley says the risk/reward equation is still skewed heavily towards the risk side.
“The stock market is still very expensive at a time where the level growth in the US economy is falling and earnings estimates are falling,” Maley said.
“Investors should be careful about assuming that this good news on the geopolitical front is something that will cause the market to rally substantially higher.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Microsoft Corp. will conduct another round of major layoffs in its Xbox division next week as part of a company-wide reorganization.
* US safety investigators pointed to breakdowns in Boeing Co.’s manufacturing processes as well as poor oversight by the US Federal Aviation Administration as key factors that led to a panel blowing off a 737 Max aircraft shortly after takeoff last year.
* McDonald’s Corp. and Krispy Kreme Inc. are ending their partnership after a little more than a year, with the doughnut chain citing cost issues.
* Cathie Wood is trimming her portfolio after scoring big with her latest bold bet: Circle Internet Group Inc., the stablecoin firm that has seen its shares surge by triple digits since its debut as a public company.
* Uber Technologies Inc. will begin offering its customers driverless Waymo rides in Atlanta, making it the second market, after Austin, where the two companies are teaming up instead of competing against each other.
* Bondholders sought to sell more than $30 billion of notes back to Warner Bros. Discovery Inc., over twice the face value of the debt the company said it would repurchase, according to a statement on Tuesday, as the media giant prepares to overhaul its liabilities and split in two.
* Walmart Inc. is testing dark stores, which resemble retail stores but are closed to the public, to speed up deliveries.
* Target Corp. is testing the delivery of products directly to customers’ homes from factories, said people familiar with the matter, an effort by the big-box retailer to launch a service like the Chinese e-commerce platforms Temu and Shein.
* Starbucks Corp. said it’s not currently considering a full sale of its China business, disputing a report from Caixin Global, as the coffee giant battles cheaper local rivals in its second-biggest market.
* BBVA SA’s €14 billion ($16 billion) bid for rival Banco Sabadell SA suffered a major setback after the Spanish government said the two lenders wouldn’t be allowed to integrate their operations for several years.
* Novo Nordisk A/S is hunting for more early-stage deals to pad its pipeline of next-generation obesity drugs, as the drugmaker struggles to fend off rivals in the burgeoning weight-loss market it helped pioneer.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.2%
* The MSCI World Index rose 1.3%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.9%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.6%
* The euro rose 0.3% to $1.1614
* The British pound rose 0.7% to $1.3621
* The Japanese yen rose 0.9% to 144.78 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.8% to $105,709.64
* Ether rose 3.7% to $2,435.43
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 4.29%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.54%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 4.47%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 5.2% to $64.93 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.3% to $3,323.66 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
A fool and his money are soon elected. –Will Rogers, 1879-1935.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com