June 22, 2023 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

Carolann is away from the office today to the Investment Conference in San Francisco, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

On June 22, 1940, during World War II, Adolf Hitler gained a stunning victory as France was forced to sign an armistice eight days after German forces overran Paris. Go to article  

Wimbledon to use AI for video highlight commentary Umm, has anyone told John McEnroe yet?

1st ‘lab-grown’ meat approved for sale in the US. In a first, U.S. regulators have cleared several lab-grown chicken products for sale in the country. Go to article  

Mysterious spiral signals in the human brain could be key to our cognition. Scientists suggest strange swirls across the outer layer of the brain might be used to link different parts of it together and help process information faster. Go to article  
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Hobart, Australia
Swimmers take part in the annual nude winter solstice swim during Hobart’s Dark Mofo festival at Long Beach
Photograph: Rob Blakers/EPA

Ullensvang, Norway
A man poses for a photo on the Trolltunga (“troll tongue”) rock formation. The cliff, popular with hikers and tourists, juts horizontally out from the mountain about 700 metres above Lake Ringedalsvatnet
Photograph: Sergei Gapon/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Timmendorfer Strand, Germany
The sun rises over the Baltic Sea after thunderstorms during the night
Photograph: Michael Probst/AP
Market Closes for June 22^nd, 2023

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈On this day in 1775, Congress authorized the first issuance of U.S. paper money. Officially known as “Continentals,” the money soon came to be called “shinplasters” as high inflation rendered it nearly worthless.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the fifth day, dropping 0.6%, or 125.05 to 19,580.90 in Toronto. The index dropped to the lowest closing level since May 31.
Toronto-Dominion Bank contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.4%. Algoma Steel Group Inc. had the largest drop, falling 8.8%.
Today, 176 of 229 shares fell, while 51 rose; 8 of 11 sectors were lower, led by energy stocks.

Insights
* This quarter, the index fell 2.6%
* This month, the index was little changed
* So far this week, the index fell 2%
* The index advanced 3% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 16% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 6.1% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 9.6% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 2.2% in the past 5 days and fell 3.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.8 on a trailing basis and 13.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.12t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 11.11% compared with 11.03% in the previous session and the average of 11.46% over the past month
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| Index Points | | Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -60.3604| -1.8| 1/39
Financials | -56.4693| -0.9| 6/23
Materials | -10.7321| -0.5| 11/38
Consumer Discretionary | -9.1702| -1.2| 5/10
Real Estate | -7.2216| -1.5| 1/20
Utilities | -5.7716| -0.6| 2/14
Information Technology | -5.1327| -0.3| 2/9
Health Care | -0.0817| -0.1| 3/2
Communication Services | 0.6514| 0.1| 2/3
Consumer Staples | 3.1661| 0.4| 6/5
Industrials | 15.6864| 0.6| 12/13
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD |Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
TD Bank | -14.3200| -1.4| 4.2| -10.3
Suncor Energy | -9.9730| -2.8| -45.5| -11.7
RBC | -9.5210| -0.8| -17.3| -2.9
Barrick Gold | 4.5380| 1.8| -5.3| -7.1
Canadian National | 5.9140| 0.9| -28.1| -1.9
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 11.3800| 1.7| 19.7| 5.1
* The benchmark 10-year bond fell and the yield rose 6.4 basis points to 3.450%
* The S&P 500 Index advanced 0.4%
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Bond yields climbed after major central banks warned about the potential for more interest-rate hikes, with officials signaling they’re nowhere near ready to declare victory over inflation.
Treasury two-year yields hit the highest since March as Jerome Powell said the US may need one or two more rate increases in 2023 while the Bank of England cautioned it may have to hike again after delivering a half-point boost. A key section of the German yield curve inverted the most since 1992 on economic concern. Norway’s krone led gains among developed currencies as the nation’s officials pledged more aggressive tightening.
Equities struggled for direction throughout most of the session, with the S&P 500 closing with a mild gain after a three-day slide. A renewed rally in megacaps like Amazon.com Inc., Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp. fueled the rebound, with the Nasdaq 100 up more than 1%. As stocks gained traction, Wall Street’s favorite volatility gauge, the VIX, slumped below 13 to the lowest level since January 2020.
“We’ve seen central banks say: ‘Oh, we haven’t done enough.’ They thought at the beginning of the year they had, and everybody thought we were going into recession, and now what we’re seeing is the data sequentially move away from that,” said Phillip Colmar, global strategist at MRB Partners. “If you’re not in a recession, it’s also really hard to get core inflation down because you need to weaken the employment sector in order to do so.”
To Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, if the Federal Reserve does tighten two more times this year, it risks sending the economy into a “significant recession.”
“I’m sounding like a broken record, but I’ll say it again: There is a lengthy lag between when monetary policy is implemented and when it actually shows up in the real economy data,” Hooper added. “We haven’t seen much of an impact yet because of that lag. That’s why we have to worry so much about overkill.”
US equities are in for a tumultuous second half of the year as the lagging impacts of aggressive monetary tightening by the Fed catch up to the economy, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Marko Kolanovic.
“In equities, absent pre-emptive Fed easing – vs. Fed dots that imply two more hikes by year-end – we expect a more challenging macro backdrop for stocks in 2H, with softening consumer trends at a time when equities have re-rated sharply,” Kolanovic said Thursday in his mid-year outlook note to clients.
While US equities stormed into bull territory in June, investors haven’t bought into the rally en masse.
There are already signs of low conviction in the S&P 500’s 14% rally this year, with the index set to end its longest weekly winning streak since 2021. Bank of America Corp.’s latest survey shows a net 25% of global money managers are still underweight US equities, despite a recent improvement in allocation.
Elsewhere, Turkey’s lira slumped as the central bank delivered a significantly smaller interest-rate increase than anticipated, as policymakers embark on what they said will be a gradual transition from an era of ultra-cheap money.
Key events this week:
* Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI, Friday
* US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Friday
* Fed Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World index was little changed
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
* The euro fell 0.3% to $1.0958
* The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.2746
* The Japanese yen fell 0.9% to 143.14 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.8% to $30,237.44
* Ether rose 0.6% to $1,890.65
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced eight basis points to 3.79%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 2.49%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 4.37%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 4.3% to $69.39 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 1% to $1,924.60 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Carly Wanna, Peyton Forte and Emily Graffeo.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Isabel

The triumph can’t be had without the struggle. – Wilma Glodean Rudolph, 1940 -1994

Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff, Registered Representative

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
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www.carolannsteinhoff.com