June 20th, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.  Summer solstice today – longest day of the year. 🔆
In summer, the song sings itself. –William Carlos Williams.

June 20, 1840: American inventor Samuel Morse patents the telegraph, revolutionizing long-distance communication.z
June 20, 1997: The tobacco industry agreed to a massive settlement in exchange for relief from mounting lawsuits and legal bills.  Go to article.

1948: Ed Sullivan show premieres.
1893: Lizzie Borden found not guilty.
Lillian Hellman, writer, b. 1905.
Errol Flynn, actor, b. 1909.
Chet Atkins, guitarist, b. 1924.Ann Murray, singer/songwriter, b. 1946.
Nicole Kidman, actress, b. 1967.

‘Sorry for what happened’
Golfer Wyndham Clark has expressed regret for his behavior last weekend at the US Open. The course at Oakmont Country Club frustrated many of the world’s best golfers.

A ‘life-changing’ raise
The Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders have received a 400% pay increase, according to the docuseries “America’s Sweethearts: Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders.” Previously, many of the cheerleaders had to work second jobs just to make ends meet.

A ‘new star’ has exploded into the night sky — and you can see it from North America
The never-before-seen “nova,” dubbed V462 Lupi, recently appeared in the constellation Lupus, after suddenly becoming 4 million times brighter. The shining explosion is visible to the naked eye and can be seen from parts of North America. Read More.

How did Ramesses II die — and did his more than 100 children fight for the throne?
Ramesses II was around 90 years old when he died, an astonishing age for ancient Egypt. Read More.

SpaceX’s Starship explodes on Texas launch pad in ‘catastrophic failure’ during routine test
SpaceX’s Starship 36 underwent a “catastrophic failure” on the stand at its Texas launch site, but the latest setback is unlikely to dent the company’s ambitions. Read More.

We may finally know how Tylenol works — and it’s not how we thought
According to a new study in rats, a key byproduct of acetaminophen, called AM404, may block pain at the source before it has a chance to reach the brain. Read More.

Each year, tiny brown moths in Australia make a grueling 620-mile migration to escape the heat and huddle in cool caves. They rely on the night sky to find their way — just like humans and birds do.

Look, up in the sky!
An astrophotographer recently traveled to West Penwith, England, to witness the beauty of a truly dark night sky.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Sydney, Australia
A visitor attends the Yolŋu Power: The Art of Yirrkala exhibition at the Art Gallery of New South Wales
Photograph: Dan Himbrechts/EPA

Tokyo, Japan
People walk through artificial mist to cool down on a hot day
Photograph: Kazuhiro Nogi/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Week in wildlife:
Two baby roe deer play in the sun near Beeley, Derbyshire, UK
Photograph: Villager Jim/SWNS
Market Closes for June 20^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary
Save as much as you can and your investments will do better. -John E. Core.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite declined slightly to 26,497.57 in Toronto.
Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.2%.
Energy Fuels Inc/Canada had the largest drop, falling 4.6%.
Today, 126 of 217 shares fell, while 87 rose; 7 of 11 sectors were lower, led by materials stocks.

Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 6.3%
* This month, the index rose 1.2%
* So far this week, the index was little changed
* The index advanced 23% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 10% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.7% below its 52-week high on June 16, 2025 and 23.2% above its low on June 21, 2024
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19 on a trailing basis and 16.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.26t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.31% compared with 6.33% in the previous session and the average of 8.67% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | -15.2718| -0.4| 13/35
Consumer Staples | -5.3051| -0.5| 3/7
Utilities | -2.0818| -0.2| 4/11
Energy | -1.7456| 0.0| 16/24
Industrials | -1.0746| 0.0| 12/16
Consumer Discretionary | -0.9063| -0.1| 3/7
Real Estate | -0.0100| 0.0| 11/7
Health Care | 0.7005| 1.1| 2/2
Communication Services | 1.6615| 0.3| 4/1
Information Technology | 7.4913| 0.3| 1/9
Financials | 8.3839| 0.1| 18/7
Couche-Tard | -4.5800| -1.2| 160.7| -12.2
CGI Inc | -4.4480| -2.1| 303.6| -8.1
Franco-Nevada | -2.7820| -0.9| 180.3| 35.1
Pembina Pipeline | 2.2400| 1.1| 260.2| -3.0
Bombardier | 2.5410| 4.0| 61.0| 13.4
Shopify | 21.5700| 1.8| 114.3| -4.4
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed with a second-straight small losses on Friday, weighed by concerns around a possible global trade war and Middle East tensions, and likely some profit taking after the index recently hit a record high.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 8.43 points to 26,497.57, staying near the June 12 record of 26,615.75.
Base Metals was the biggest loser among sectors, down near 1.5%.
The Battery Metals Index was down 1.3%, as most sectors closed .
No sector rose near 1%.
Rosenberg Research in a note published today looked at how the TSX did become one of the first to hit a new record and it noted that gold exposure helped.
Rosenberg Research’s Alp Erdogan and David Rosenberg on Friday looked at the reasons noted the TSX’s recent strength and the duo broke down the structural factors that helped the index bounce back “so strongly” from the April lows that followed President Trump’s imposition of global tariffs.
The pair remembered back to April 8, six days after Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ speech at the White House Rose Garden, when the TSX Composite closed at 22,506.90, an eight-month low.
From that trough, they said, it took the market only 17 trading days to wipe out the losses and go back to its pre-April 2 closing level.
They added: “What was more striking was the fact that this sharp bounce back unfolded against an unfavorable backdrop of murky macroeconomic fundamentals, tariff-induced uncertainty, and depressed oil prices.”
Despite a “flurry of twists and turns in the constantly evolving tariff saga”, Erdogan and Rosenberg said “a period of relative calm has ensued” after the chaos of tariff announcements and the early April market sell off, triggered by tariff fears.
As the third-largest trading partner of the United States, Canada has “fared relatively well” after being excluded from the Liberation Day tariffs and having USMCA-compliant products excluded from the 25% ‘fentanyl’ tariffs, they added.
Erdogan and Rosenberg cited CIBC Capital Markets when noting mining has accounted for approximately 40% of Canadian new issuances on a year to date basis.
Consequently, this strong price performance from the precious metals sector, comprising near 11% of the Composite Index, has “resulted in underweight generalist funds adding exposure”, they said.
“Additionally,” the duo said, “ongoing gold purchases by central banks and governments have continued to support gold prices and mining shares.
According to Goldman Sachs, global central banks are buying 80 metric tons of gold monthly, and sovereign wealth funds are collectively acquiring 1,000 tons annually — about a quarter of yearly global production.
We remind clients that these strategic market players are long-term investors who happen to be price-indiscriminate.”
For Rosenberg Research the bottom line is that “all-in, a confluence of fundamental factors” pushed the S&P/TSX Index to become one of the first global benchmarks to get back to its pre-Liberation Day levels.
Thus, it said, the Canadian benchmark has “benefitted from sectoral composition and a cyclical/value bent, an economically nationalistic trend that buoyed domestic retail, and a newly elected government with a pro-growth fiscal playbook”.
It noted global markets have added a new term to the investing lexicon: The Great White Long trade.
Canada’s market, the research noted, has unique characteristics compared to the United States in that it generates far greater dividend and earnings yields.
It said “the relative valuations in the Canadian stock market remain compelling: you get paid to take on equity risk when you compare the TSX to alternatives in cash and bonds”.
The same, they added, cannot be said for U.S. markets.
Rosenberg Research said its Strategizer model’s score card, at 39.8 for Canada, still compares favorably to the latest 28.4 grade in the U.S.
It added: “This gap (which is in the process of closing) may also have acted as a magnet for foreign flows into North America seeking a home that has decent value, exposure to gold, and generates superior yields.
Going forward, our in-house research strongly recommends continued exposure to the basic Materials, Financials, and Industrial sectors.”
Meanwhile, Rosenberg Research in a separate note on the economy said Canadian retail prices “continue on a disinflationary path”.
It noted today’s Canadian retail sales failed to meet expectations as the most cyclically sensitive sectors of the economy declined.
Canadian retail sales, the research noted, rose by 0.3% month over month in April, “a tad below” the consensus for a rise 0.4% MoM.
But just as was the case in March, much of that gain came from a sizable increase in motor vehicle sales , up 1.9% MoM, while retail sales excluding autos actually fell 0.3% on the month, coming in slightly below market expectations of 0.2% drop, the research said, before adding: “What was truly ominous was Statistics Canada’s flash estimate for May, which is showing a hefty 1.1% MoM drop.”
Perhaps, Rosenberg Research said, the “most key element” of the report was the deflation seen in the retail sales price index, coming down 0.2% MoM from the previous month. Thus, volume sales rose by 0.5% MoM.
Since the 2.4% YoY rise nearby January peak, the price deflator has now receded in each of the past three months and is rising at a “lame and tame” 1.6% annual pace, it noted.
According to Rosenberg, the “real build-in” for Q2 retail sales is now running at a rise of1.5%.
But it said that’s a pace it would expect to continue slowing throughout the quarter as labor market conditions continue to weaken and households keep pulling back on large spending in preparation for the unknowns.
“The inflationary pulse from tariffs are not all showing up in the data yet, but this rapid pace of disinflation should provide the Bank of Canada the confidence to make the pre-emptive cuts the economy needs,” it added.
Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate closed with a loss on Friday with traders lowering the commodity’s risk premium as Iran and Israel continue to trade attacks and concerns ease that the U.S. will enter the fighting.
In its last day as the active contract, WTI crude oil for July delivery fell $0.21 to expire at US$74.93 per barrel, while August Brent crude was last seen down $1.94 to US$76.91.
Gold traded lower as traders returned to work following the Juneteenth holiday to weigh the Federal Reserve’s Wednesday decision to leave interest rates unchanged amid concerns tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump will raise inflation.
Gold for August delivery was last seen down $26.00 from Wednesday’s close to US$3,382.10 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A jittery week ended with losses in stocks as investors weighed geopolitical and trade developments, chipmakers sank while a $6.5 trillion options expiration spurred a surge in volume.
Bonds bounced as Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said rates could drop as early as July.
Not even signs President Donald Trump is giving a chance to diplomacy in de-escalating the war between Israel and Iran were able to soothe nerves ahead of the weekend.
Equities also fell as the Financial Times reported Japan canceled a top-level meeting with the US as the Trump administration told Tokyo to spend more on defense.
A closely watched gauge of chipmakers slid almost 1% on a Wall Street Journal report the US may revoke waivers for allies with semiconductor plants in China.
Trump said two weeks is the maximum amount of time he will allow to pursue diplomacy with Iran.
While he did not clarify what action he is considering afterwards, the president noted that “maybe it won’t be necessary” for the US to get involved.
European officials emerged from talks with Iran Friday sounding hopeful that diplomacy will continue.
Waller reiterated his view that the inflation hit from tariffs is likely to be short-lived.
His comments on CNBC followed this week’s Fed decision to keep rates on hold for the fourth straight meeting.
Meantime, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin told Reuters there’s no rush to cut rates amid tariff risks to inflation as the job market holds up.
Money markets slightly increased their bets on a September Fed reduction, with an October move remaining fully priced in.
Fed officials left interest rates unchanged Wednesday, as they have all year, as they seek to learn more about how President Donald Trump’s policies will affect the economy.
“The market is dealing with a lot presently, from geopolitical tensions, tariff uncertainty and questions about the Federal Reserve’s next move,” said Brian Buetel at UBS Wealth Management.
“While there are different risks on the horizon, stocks are a forward-looking barometer of economic growth, which we believe will hold up this year.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Meta Platforms Inc. held discussions with artificial intelligence search startup Perplexity AI Inc. about a possible takeover before moving ahead with a multibillion-dollar investment in Scale AI, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Tesla Inc. is set to open its first showrooms in India in July, people familiar with the discussions said, kicking off formal operations in the world’s third-biggest automobile market as the Elon Musk-led firm hunts for growth amid falling sales in Europe and China.
* Musk’s artificial intelligence startup xAI Corp. offered investors sweeter pricing on its $5 billion debt offering Friday, as Morgan Stanley wraps up commitments for the deal.
* Kroger Co.’s sales surpassed expectations during the latest quarter, a sign that consumers are still spending on groceries and other essentials despite economic turbulence.
* Darden Restaurants Inc. is considering “strategic alternatives” for its Bahama Breeze chain, Chief Executive Officer Rick Cardenas said.
* Aflac Inc. said a recent cybersecurity breach could have given intruders unauthorized access to customers’ personal information, including Social Security numbers, as well as health and claims data.
* QXO Inc. won’t raise its $5 billion offer for building products distributor GMS Inc. after Home Depot Inc. reportedly\ made its own bid.
* CarMax Inc. reported comparable sales and earnings per share that beat consensus estimates.
* Accenture Plc reported results and gave an outlook. Analysts highlighted bookings as a weak spot of the print.
* SoftBank Group Corp. founder Masayoshi Son is seeking to team up with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. to realize what could be his biggest bet yet — a trillion-dollar industrial complex in Arizona to build robots and artificial intelligence.
* Temu’s sales decline in the US is deepening as the online marketplace drastically cuts spending on advertising targeting American consumers, signaling a shift in focus after President Donald Trump’s tariff barrage.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.2% as of 4:01 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.2%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 1%
* Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index fell 0.8%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.1516
* The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.3445
* The Japanese yen fell 0.5% to 146.20 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.9% to $103,406.76
* Ether fell 3.6% to $2,418.77
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 4.38%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.52%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.54%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.3% to $74.93 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.2% to $3,365.51 an ounce
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Truth alone will endure; all the rest will be swept away before the tide of time. –Mahatma Gandhi, 1869-1948.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
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www.carolannsteinhoff.com