June 20, 2023 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
I’m off tomorrow afternoon to a technology & AI conference for a couple of days in San Francisco – see what the latest developments are and where to invest next. J

June 20, 1948: Ed Sullivan Show premieres.
1975: The film Jaws is premiered.  Steven Spielberg’s thriller about a rogue great white shark terrorizing a summer resort town is often regarded as one of the greatest films of all time.
1994: O.J. Simpson pleaded innocent in Los Angeles to the killings of his ex-wife, Nicole, and her friend Ronald Goldman. Go to article  

Ireland will pay you $90,000 to move to a beautiful island home.  If you dream of fixing up a rural home far from the chaos of modern life, you may want to consider this offer from the government of Ireland.

NASA spacecraft captures image of ghostly lightning on Jupiter.  A green lightning bolt was seen inside a swirling vortex on Jupiter. View the striking image.

This man is traveling the world on non-motorized transport.  Meet a man who’s walking, paddling, kayaking, cycling, skiing, rowing and sailing his way across 29 countries.

Mysterious spiral signals in the human brain could be key to our cognition
The scientists who found the swirls think they could help to organize complex brain activity. Read More

Humans inhale a credit card’s worth of microplastics every week. Here’s where it ends up.
Researchers used a computer model to find where the bits of microplastics inhaled by humans end up. Read More

‘Hot Jupiter’ planet killed and ate its Mercury-sized neighbor
A new analysis of the exoplanet WASP-76 b reveals that the world is carrying the remains of its long-lost neighbor in its atmosphere. Read More

For a billion years, Earth may have had 19-hour days. Here’s why.
Days were once five hours shorter than they are now due to the moon’s proximity to Earth. Read More
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Glastonbury, UK
The Carhenge installation by Joe Rush, which is made of 24 vintage cars, in place for Glastonbury festival at Worthy Farm in Somerset.  Photograph: Matt Cardy/PA

Aoraki, New Zealand
This football pitch in the valley of the Aoraki/Mount Cook, the highest mountain in New Zealand, was created over six weeks to promote tourism for the upcoming Fifa Women World Cup, which will be played in Australia and New Zealand.  Photograph: Brett Phibbs/Tourism New Zealand /AFP/Getty Images

Cambridge, UK
A fireworks display over the River Cam during the Trinity May Ball at Cambridge University’s Trinity College in celebration of the end of the academic year. The first official May Ball was held in Trinity College’s grounds in 1866 with the tradition quickly spreading to the other colleges.  Photograph: Joe Giddens/PA
Market Closes for June 20^th, 2023

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1995: Robert E. Brennan, former chairman of First Jersey Securities, was ordered by a federal judge to pay $71.5 million in fines and penalties for securities fraud. The judge ruled that First Jersey cheated investors out of at least $27 million and illegally manipulated the prices of at least six penny stocks that it had underwritten.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the third day, dropping 0.9%, or 180.07 to 19,754.14 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 1.1% on May 30.
Today, materials stocks led the market lower, as 10 of 11 sectors lost; 170 of 229 shares fell, while 56 rose.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.7%. Iamgold Corp. had the largest drop, falling 6.1%.
Insights
* This quarter, the index fell 1.7%
* This month, the index rose 0.9%
* The index advanced 3% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 5.2% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 10.5% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 1.2% in the past 5 days and fell 2.9% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.9 on a trailing basis and 13.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.16t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 11.06% compared with 10.81% in the previous session and the average of 11.49% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | -60.8855| -2.6| 3/47
Energy | -51.4380| -1.5| 4/36
Financials | -47.4180| -0.8| 9/19
Information Technology | -8.9067| -0.6| 3/8
Communication Services | -4.8695| -0.6| 2/3
Industrials | -4.0183| -0.2| 10/16
Real Estate | -3.6822| -0.8| 2/17
Utilities | -0.8079| -0.1| 8/8
Health Care | -0.2671| -0.4| 2/3
Consumer Discretionary | -0.0326| 0.0| 5/10
Consumer Staples | 2.2547| 0.3| 8/3
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Natural Resources | -15.1700| -2.7| -4.7| -6.2
Enbridge | -11.3200| -1.6| -57.1| -7.8
Franco-Nevada | -11.2700| -4.4| 54.1| -0.8
TC Energy | 1.2150| 0.3| 28.9| -0.7
Thomson Reuters | 1.9110| 1.0| 125.0| 11.7
Restaurant Brands | 2.1740| 1.0| -2.9| 15.1
US
By Peyton Forte and Isabelle Lee
(Bloomberg) — Stocks edged down Tuesday as the second-quarter rally cooled with investors jittery ahead of Powell’s testimony later in the week.
Treasuries rose.
The S&P 500 notched its first two-day losing streak in four weeks as the US equities benchmark traded off recent 14-month highs.
The Nasdaq 100 ended the session unchanged as shares of Tesla Inc. buttressed the tech-heavy gauge from deeper losses.
Nike Inc. fell on inventory concerns while PayPal Holdings Inc. climbed after reaching a loan accord with KKR & Co.
Investors caught between fear of missing out and concerns markets have run too far, too fast are contending with overblown valuations and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve.
The AI frenzy which has been driving much of the recent gains, is sure to be a topic during second-quarter conference calls.
“The issue is going to be: to what degree does that show up in fundamentals?” Scott Chronert, global markets strategist at Citigroup, told Bloomberg Television.
“What we’re going to run into is this disconnect with how hard the market has run versus where earnings expectations are,” he said.
The path of US monetary policy is another wild card.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will give his semi-annual report to Congress on Wednesday.
Policymakers at the Fed kept interest rates unchanged at their latest meeting but warned of more tightening ahead.
Investors also await the outcome of policy meetings in Turkey, the UK and Switzerland.
“Our skepticism around the sustainability of the rally in US market-cap weighted indexes stems primarily from continued investor belief that the Fed is bluffing on holding rates higher for longer,” Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, wrote in a note.  “If a favorable soft landing does materialize, the Fed will have no incentive to cut rates, especially if labor markets are still relatively resilient,” she added.
‘‘Goldilocks’ is at risk.  Watch real rates, which would likely creep higher amid a strong economic soft landing.”
The Fed decision last week came with forecasts for higher borrowing costs of 5.6% in 2023, implying two additional quarter-point rate hikes or one half-point increase before the end of the year.
That contrasts with market pricing for some 20 basis points of tightening in the remainder of the year.
“Generally speaking a high-multiple environment is only accompanied by a declining policy rate when earnings have collapsed,” Mike O’Rourke of JonesTrading wrote. “It will take a reality check in equities along with economic headwinds before rate cuts emerge. High stock multiples and a high policy interest rate are not a relationship that can be sustained in the long term.”
US Treasuries yields traded lower after an earlier bounce amid an unexpected surge for housing starts in May, the most since 2016.
The yield on the 10-year fell 4 basis points to 3.72% while the policy-sensitive two-year was at 4.69%.
“This is strong data,” Sonal Desai, chief investment officer for Franklin Templeton Fixed Income, told Bloomberg Television. “It continues to feed into the narrative that housing, new starts, are not going to be the first place which collapsed.”
The US dollar advanced, while in global currencies the Swedish krona slumped to a record low against the euro as traders expect the Riksbank to tap the brakes on rate hikes in coming months.
Gold and oil retreated after disappointment over China’s stimulus measures.
US-listed Chinese stocks also tumbled with Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. dropping about 4.2% following the surprise replacement of its chief executive and chairman.
Key events this week:
* Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard speaks, Tuesday
* New York Fed President John Williams speaks, Tuesday
* Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivers semi-annual congressional testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, Wednesday
* Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee speaks, Wednesday
* Eurozone consumer confidence, Thursday
* Rate decisions in UK, Switzerland, Indonesia, Norway, Mexico, Philippines, Turkey, Thursday
* US Conference Board leading index, initial jobless claims, current account, existing home sales, Thursday
* Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivers semi-annual testimony to Congress before the Senate Banking Committee, Thursday
* Cleveland Fed’s Loretta Mester speaks, Thursday
* Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI, Friday
* Japan CPI, Friday
* US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Friday
* Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
* The euro was little changed at $1.0913
* The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.2762
* The Japanese yen rose 0.4% to 141.46 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 4.8% to $28,005.8
* Ether rose 3% to $1,782.94
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 3.73%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined 11 basis points to 2.40%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined 15 basis points to 4.34%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.8% to $70.50 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 1.1% to $1,949.90 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Carly Wanna and Cecile Gutscher.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Neither fire nor wind, birth nor death can erase our good deeds. –Buddha.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com