June 13th, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

June 13, 1983: Pioneer 10 becomes the first man-made object to leave the central solar system, crossing Neptune’s orbit – the outermost at the time.
On June 13, 1966, the Supreme Court issued its landmark Miranda vs. Arizona decision, ruling that criminal suspects must be informed of their constitutional rights prior to questioning by police. Go to article.

William Butler Yeats, poet, b.1865.
“And say my glory was I had such friends.” –William Butler Yeats, 1865-1939.

One Roman soldier had enormous feet, 2,000-year-old waterlogged leather shoe reveals
A surprisingly large leather shoe has been found at Magna, a Roman fort in northern England. Read More.

‘It’s a ticking time bomb’: Acid levels in Earth’s oceans have already breached ‘danger zone’, study suggests
Researchers have found that ocean acidification entered a “danger zone” in 2020, suggesting increased carbon dioxide levels have caused Earth to breach another planetary boundary. Read More.

Monster black hole jet from the early universe is basking in the ‘afterglow’ of the Big Bang
NASA’s Chandra X-ray Observatory has captured a striking image of a distant quasar from the “cosmic noon,” including a giant energy jet
“being illuminated by the leftover glow from the Big Bang itself.” Read More.

Superbugs evolve inside the human body — tracking them in real time could help save patients, scientists say
A new proof-of-concept study explored the feasibility of tracking the evolution of superbug infections in real time to help save infected patients. Read More.

Hats off to the first American pontiff
Or should we say “hats on”? Pope Leo XIV showed his allegiance to one Chicago sports team this week by donning a baseball cap during an appearance at the Vatican.

Hey look! It’s a new dinosaur.
Scientists have identified a previously unknown species that fills an early gap in the fossil record of tyrannosaurs. The 86-million-year-old dinosaur has been named Khankhuuluu mongoliensis (the “dragon prince of Mongolia”).

‘Jaws’ celebrates semi-centennial
It’s been 50 years since the release of the original summer blockbuster — and going to the beach hasn’t been the same since. To commemorate the film’s upcoming anniversary, NBC plans to air a shark-ton of “Jaws”-related content.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Paris, France
Visitors interact with an inflatable art installation at the Euphoria Art Is in the Air exhibition at the Grand Palais d’ete
Photograph: Stéphane de Sakutin/AFP/Getty Images

Fife, Scotland
Members of the art collective Sand in your Eye take part in creating a 40m-diameter sand drawing of Ludwig van Beethoven on Elie Beach, East Neuk, to celebrate the East Neuk festival, which starts at the end of June
Photograph: Jane Barlow/PA

​​​​​​​Lunch break … pelicans take over the benches in St James’s Park, London, UK
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for June 13^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
‘Tis not altogether improbable, that when the nation become heartily sick of their debts, and are cruelly oppressed by them, some daring projector may arise with visionary schemes for their discharge.  And as public credit will begin, by that time, to be a little frail, the least touch will destroy it, as happened in France; and in this manner it will die of the doctor. -David Hume, “Of Public Credit”, 1752.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.4% at 26,504.35 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.8% on May 21 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.3%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.6%.
Lightspeed Commerce Inc. had the largest drop, falling 5.3%.
Today, 126 of 217 shares fell, while 87 rose; 8 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 6.4%
* So far this week, the index rose 0.3%
* The index advanced 22% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 11% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.4% below its 52-week high on June 12, 2025 and 23.5% above its low on June 17, 2024
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19 on a trailing basis and 16.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.28t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.59% compared with 6.67% in the previous session and the average of 12.39% over the past month

Index
Financials | -77.3543| -0.9| 6/18
Information Technology | -73.1384| -2.9| 0/10
Industrials | -34.0832| -1.0| 4/23
Consumer Discretionary | -12.2745| -1.3| 1/9
Consumer Staples | -7.8422| -0.8| 0/10
Real Estate | -5.2711| -1.1| 0/19
Communication Services | -3.3763| -0.6| 1/4
Utilities | -2.3341| -0.2| 8/7
Health Care | 1.2047| 1.8| 2/1
Energy | 51.3507| 1.2| 33/8
Materials | 51.7244| 1.4| 32/17
Shopify | -45.8600| -3.6| -16.1| -6.4
RBC | -17.0600| -1.0| -44.2| 0.1
Manulife Financial | -16.9200| -3.2| -24.4| -4.1
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 10.6200| 1.8| -18.4| 50.4
Nutrien | 10.7500| 3.8| 162.1| 32.8
Suncor | 21.8200| 4.7| -31.0| 8.5
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange fell off a record high on Friday amid likely profit taking after two days of record closes and as one veteran market watcher, David Rosenberg, said “recessionary thumbprints” were all over today’s Canadian manufacturing sales data.
The resources heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 111.4 points at 26,504.35, but losses were capped due to higher commodity prices and the prospect of more gains to come for gold and oil as safe havens amid growing violence in in the Middle East after Israel launched strikes on Iran, sending all major global indices lower.
Most sectors were lower, led by Info Tech, down near 2.6%, and Industrials, down 1%.
Both Energy and Health Care were up by 2% or more.
On the Canadian economic picture, David Rosenberg said the Q1 pickup in the Canadian economy, as he had been suggesting all along, was “an illusionary pre-tariff spurt of growth”.
The second quarter is now looking to be “flat at best”, Rosenberg added, while noting manufacturing sales sagged -2.8% month over month in April, which was even worse than an already downcast -2.0% consensus estimate and followed on the heels of a -1.4% March slide.
This marks the third consecutive contraction in industrial activity, swinging the year over year trend from +1.4% in March to -2.7% in April and taking the level to its lowest reading since January 2022.
“And,” Rosenberg said, “you can’t totally blame lower oil prices because ex-energy shipments dropped by -1.8% MoM, which was matched by a comparable setback in total volume activity in the month.
In real or inflation-adjusted terms, shipments have now fallen in each of the past three months and in four of the past five — to the weakest level since January 2022.”
Rosenberg also noted wholesale trade dropped by 4.4% month over month and ex-energy by 2.2%, while volumes “crashed” by -4.6% sequentially and posted sizeable” declines in three of the past four months.
He said: “I realize that it is retail sales that always dominates the market’s attention and the air waves, but what is not appreciated is that retail sales are just 60% of the wholesale trade sector.
The wholesale price deflator is running at -2.6% on a YoY basis, swinging down from +6.4% a year ago.”
According to Rosenberg, “how the Bank of Canada can just sit on the sidelines as a casual observer is a good question as the disinflationary output gap widens further”.
But, he noted, the information to hand explains the behavior of the Canadian dollar, which has been the second weakest G-10 currency this year, “flattered only by the ever-sagging U.S. dollar”.
Sometimes, Rosenberg said, “giddiness and animal spirits can overtake the stock market even in the context of a squishy soft economy”.
The implications for April and Q2 GDP are “squarely negative” and “recession risks are alive and well”, he added.
Of commodities today, gold traded at a record high mid-afternoon on Friday as safe-haven buying surged after Israel launched overnight attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities and military leadership.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up $48.80 to US$3,451.20, topping the prior record close of $3,425.30 set on April 21.
On gold related matters, a court-appointed receiver plans to start sifting for gold in cyanide-laced water stored at the Eagle Gold Mine in Yukon, the Canadian Press is reporting, noting the Yukon government says proceeds will be used to help pay for some of the cleanup after the mine.
The failure of the mine’s heap-leach facility, which contained millions of tons of cyanide-laced ore and water, set off the disaster and subsequent takeover by the receiver, Friday’s report noted.
Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed at a four-month high amid fears of a spreading conflict in the Persian Gulf, which supplies more than a fifth of the world’s oil.
WTI oil for July delivery closed up $4.94 to settle at US$72.98 per barrel, the highest since Feb. 11, after earlier touching US$77.62, while August Brent crude was last seen up 4.72 to US$74.08.
Staying on oil, Vikas Dwivedi, Global Energy Strategist at Macquarie, published a note that was prepared prior to latest developments in the Middle East between Israel and Iran, and said Macquarie’s fundamentals “remain the same for the time being”.
Dwivedi said: “We anticipate bearish fundamentals and producer hedging will limit the continuation of the current rally and pressure oil price toward US$60 again over the next two to three months.
After peak summer runs and draws, our balances continue to point to a heavily oversupplied market.
That said, we believe the drivers of current price strength include a combination of macro, geopolitical, and crude microstructural factors.
Initially, Dwivedi noted, the market anticipated OPEC could announce an accelerated return of barrels in July greater than the 3-month increments planned in May and June.
Then May actuals came in below expectations, which caused the market to fade OPEC’s return trajectory, a dynamic that contributed to the recent rally.
Dwivedi said the recent cooling in trade tensions between the U.S. and China has renewed some macro-optimism and resulted in the reduced likelihood of a trade war 2.0 triggering a global economic slowdown.
He added this development could support better global oil demand outlooks and provide price support.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street buckled as reports of Iran’s retaliation for Israel’s attack on its nuclear facilities deepened concerns that the conflict is escalating, with oil jumping and stocks taking a hit.
The S&P 500 lost over 1%, wiping out this week’s advance.
Airline and travel companies tumbled, while energy producers and defense shares rose.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures surged more than 7%, the most since March 2022.
Gold hovered near its all-time high.
Treasuries fell as a surge in oil stoked concern about a resurgence in inflation.
The dollar edged up.
Iran fired hundreds of missiles in retaliation for Israel’s airstrikes that targeted Tehran’s military and nuclear infrastructure, broadening a conflict that threatens to engulf the region and roil global markets.
The Iranian attack, which Tehran said entailed hundreds of ballistic missiles, is the most forceful step yet by Tehran since Israel’s overnight raids killed top Iranian generals and badly damaged key military infrastructure.
“The lasting damage may be crude oil prices,” said Louis Navellier, chief investment officer at Navellier & Associates.
“This will certainly do some damage to the inflation statistics if it doesn’t roll back soon.”
The timing of the strike undercuts a risk-on week in which a key measure of inflation came lower than expected while the US and China made progress on trade talks.
The surge in oil raises fresh questions about supply-side price pressures, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve’s rate path.
President Donald Trump urged Iran to accept a nuclear deal with Washington to avoid further attacks, which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed would probably happen over the coming days as Israel looks to deal a severe blow to Tehran’s nuclear program.
“The wild card is oil; a sustained increase in oil prices – particularly against the existing backdrop of uncertainty – could become an additional hurdle for the economy to overcome,” said Jim Baird at Plante Moran Financial Advisors.
“The events of the past day increase that risk, but a sustained increase in oil prices still doesn’t look like the base-case scenario.”
Baird says it’s possible that oil prices could recede if conditions don’t escalate considerably in the coming days and if the conflict is largely contained between Israel and Iran.
Conversely, if the conflict were to expand or draw in additional parties across the region, the risk of a more sustained increase in oil prices – and a more notable impact on an already slowing global economy – would increase, he noted.
Ahead of the latest escalation in of geopolitical tensions, traders had boosted their bets on Fed rate cuts.
While those wagers receded slightly on Friday, money markets are still projecting two quarter-point reductions before the end of the year.
While Fed officials are widely expected to keep their benchmark rates on hold at next week’s policy meeting, they are set to release a quarterly update of economic and interest rate projections, known as the dot plot.
In March, they had outlined two cuts for this year.
At NatAlliance Securities, Andrew Brenner remarks that bond and stock markets will be closed the day after the Fed meeting due to a holiday.
And with Middle East fears, it should be a “tricky” week, he said.
Strategists at Barclays Plc recommended clients position for a “hawkish Fed surprise” next week as they expect officials to raise their inflation forecast for 2025 and pare back the number of cuts expected to “less than what the current modal pricing is.”
Before Friday, the S&P 500 hadn’t seen a move exceeding 0.6% in either direction for 11 of the past 12 sessions through Thursday — the longest such stretch since early December, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Wall Street’s so-called fear gauge — the VIX — jumped to around 20.
A break of that level is often seen as a dividing line between calm and nervousness in markets.
“The market advance paused this week, as optimism on trade and inflation gave way to fear of a broadening war in the Middle East,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“While it is too early to gauge the longer-term impact from Israel’s strike, it is important to remember that geopolitical events tend to have short-term impacts, but limited impacts beyond the first month.”
Before tensions in the Middle East had ratcheted up, US stock funds suffered the biggest outflows in almost three months, according to data published by Bank of America Corp., adding to signs that the equity market rally is stalling.
About $9.8 billion was redeemed from US stocks in the week through Wednesday, the most in 11 weeks, according to EPFR Global data cited by the bank. Even European funds, which have been popular with investors this year, suffered their first outflows in nine weeks at $600 million.

Corporate Highlights:
* The Trump administration is taking steps that would make it easier for automakers to deploy-self driving cars without driver controls, a potential boon to the ambitions of Tesla Inc. and rivals looking to put robotaxis on US roads in the near future.
* Boeing Co. delivered its first aircraft to a Chinese airline customer since President Donald Trump unleashed a wave of tariffs in early April, a sign of rapprochement as Washington and Beijing look to ease tensions.
* Adobe Inc. fell after the creative-software company gave a sales outlook for the current quarter that failed to calm investors who have been skeptical it can hold its own against AI-focused upstarts.
* Amazon.com Inc. and Walmart Inc. are among large multinational companies which have recently discussed issuing their own stablecoins in the US, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing unidentified people.
* Visa Inc. and Mastercard Inc. fell. Any moves by global retailers to set up their own blockchain-based payment rails could hit credit card issuers’ revenues.
* Boeing Co. Chief Executive Officer Kelly Ortberg finds himself in a painfully familiar role as he faces another crisis, this time over a crash involving the company’s marquee 787 Dreamliner jet in India that killed more than 240 people.
* Ford Motor Co. continues to struggle to obtain rare earth magnet supplies that are essential to car production and have already forced a temporary shutdown of one of its factories.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.8%
* The MSCI World Index fell 1.1%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.7%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 1.8%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1548
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.3571
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 143.95 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.8% to $105,163.95
* Ether fell 4.2% to $2,529.8
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 4.41%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 2.54%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced seven basis points to 4.55%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 7.5% to $73.17 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.4% to $3,432.89 an ounce

–With assistance from Julien Ponthus, Allegra Catelli, Andre
Janse van Vuuren, Anand Krishnamoorthy and Emily Graffeo.

Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent.

As ever,

Carolann
Happiness is not a station you arrive at, but a manner of travelling. -Ogden Nash, 1902-1971.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com