June 13, 2023, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
June 13^th, 1971: The New York Times publishes the Pentagon Papers.  The secret study of the United States’ involvement in the Vietnam War revealed the government’s lives concerning the scale of US activities in Vietnam and neighboring countries.

June 13^th, 1983 The U.S. space probe Pioneer 10 became the first spacecraft to leave the solar system as it crossed the orbit of Neptune.  Go to article  

William Butler Yeats, poet, b. 1865.
And say my glory was I had such friends. –William Butler Yeats, 1865-1939.

India is now the most populous country in the world.  The South Asian superpower has a growing influence on the global stage — and it’s ready to become a tourism force.

Life may already exist on the moon — and NASA’s next mission could find it
Some hardy microbes might be able to survive on Earth’s nearest neighbor, experts suggest. Read More.

AI identifies 3 more ‘Nazca Lines’ figures in Peru
Scientists used artificial intelligence to discover three lost “Nazca Lines” that were etched into the desert up to 2,400 years ago. Read More.

‘Reanimated’ hearts can be successfully transplanted and could expand donor pool
A gold-standard clinical trial suggests that “reanimating” donated hearts is a viable strategy. Read More.

Meet ‘Dr. Deep Sea,’ the scientist who broke the record for the longest time living underwater
Joseph Dituri, who recently broke the record for the longest time spent living underwater, tells Live Science about his mission. Read More

The 12 biggest volcanic eruptions in recorded history
From Krakatoa to the Tonga blast, here are some of the biggest volcanic eruptions ever seen. Read More

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Lisbon, Portugal
Celebrations during the Santo Antônio de Lisboa district’s parade on Avenida da Liberdade. Every year on Saint Anthony evening people from about 20 Lisbon neighbourhoods march in colourful costumes and sing popular songs in honour of the saint. Photograph: Patrícia de Melo Moreira/AFP/Getty Images

Basel, Switzerland
Visitors walk past pictures by US photographer Richard Avedon at the Art Basel fair for modern and contemporary art Photograph: Fabrice Coffrini/AFP/Getty Images.

Frankfurt, Germany
A hare sits on a backroad at sunrise on the outskirts of the city Photograph: Michael Probst/AP
Market Closes for June 13^h, 2023

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1991: The New York Stock Exchange began after-hours trading for the first time, as two “crossing sessions” of trades among institutional investors extended the trading day to 5:15 p.m.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.3%, or 69.09 to 19,990.40 in Toronto.
Toronto-Dominion Bank contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.3%.
Sandstorm Gold Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 8.6%.
Today, 143 of 232 shares rose, while 87 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This quarter, the index fell 0.5%
* The index advanced 1.3% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 16% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 4.1% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 11.8% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.3% in the past 5 days and fell 2.1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.1 on a trailing basis and 13.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.17t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 11.93% compared with 12.18% in the previous session and the average of 11.08% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 55.2114| 0.9| 25/4
Energy | 16.3569| 0.5| 30/10
Industrials | 10.2798| 0.4| 19/8
Consumer Staples | 5.3339| 0.7| 10/1
Consumer Discretionary | 4.9787| 0.7| 11/4
Communication Services | 3.8838| 0.5| 5/0
Health Care | 0.4030| 0.6| 3/3
Real Estate | -0.0207| 0.0| 11/9
Materials | -0.4281| 0.0| 21/28
Utilities | -8.4411| -0.9| 3/13
Information Technology | -18.4611| -1.2| 5/7
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
TD Bank | 12.7800| 1.3| 5.1| -8.9
Canadian Natural Resources | 9.3060| 1.7| 99.5| -0.7
Bank of Montreal | 9.2660| 1.6| -45.4| -3.6
Brookfield Renewable Partners | -3.5710| -5.9| 352.9| 16.1
Agnico Eagle Mines | -4.7160| -2.0| 12.7| -5.3
Shopify | -16.3600| -2.3| -13.2| 80.8
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street got some encouragement to send stocks higher after a slowdown in inflation bolstered speculation the Federal Reserve will pause its tightening campaign on Wednesday.
That’s not to say investors are betting the Fed is done with its interest-rate hikes just yet.
While swap traders are putting the odds of a June increase at only 10%, they still see the potential for a July move.
And to some of the world’s biggest money managers, the central bank will continue to sound hawkish even if it stays on hold this week.
Tiffany Wilding at Pacific Investment Management Co. expects the Fed to signal the market should not interpret a potential pause as the end of hikes.
Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, sees a “hawkish pause” as the rate of disinflation remains incompatible with the Fed’s 2% target.
Meantime, UBS Chief Investment Office bets officials will send a “clear message” that at least one more increase is likely at a later meeting.
“The Fed is comfortable pausing the hiking cycle in June, provided there is a strong statement of their intention to raise rates again should it be required,” said James Athey, investment director at Abrdn.
Short-term Treasury yields surged to the highest levels since March amid a decline in expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates this year.
Two-year rates, which are more sensitive to imminent policy moves, climbed 10 basis points to 4.68%.
The S&P 500 rose for a fourth consecutive day — its longest winning run since early April — and approached the 4,400 mark.
Wall Street’s “fear gauge” — the CBOE Volatility Index — dropped back below 15.
That compares with an average of 23 for the VIX in the past year.
Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets says he’ll be on the lookout for any comments from Jerome Powell regarding the recent breakout in the US equity benchmark that reached its highest
level since April 2022.
Back in December, the Fed Chair highlighted the importance of financial conditions continuing to reflect the policy restraints put in place to tame inflation.
“We expect the performance of risk assets will be an issue that is discussed by the Fed,” Lyngen wrote in a note to clients. “The VIX has begun to consolidate <15, which has also contributed to the overall loosening in financial conditions.”
In addition to the Fed decision on rates, investors’ focus will be on the central bank’s quarterly so-called dot plot in its Summary of Economic Projections.
“Raising the ‘dots’ for both 2023 and 2024 would signal an intention to leave rates higher for longer, while also giving the doves on the committee another few weeks to prove that inflationary pressures are waning,” the UBS Chief Investment Office added.
The consumer price index and the core CPI — which excludes food and energy — decelerated on an annual basis.
However, a key gauge of prices closely watched by the Fed continued to rise at a concerning pace.
“Today’s US CPI has likely sealed the deal for a ‘hawkish hold’,” said Matthew Weller at FOREX.com and City Index. “With no upside surprises to inflation, it looks likely that Jerome Powell and company will follow through on their recent comments favoring a ‘skip’ in the interest rate hiking cycle tomorrow, while leaving the door open for a potential resumption of rate increases next month if the data dictates.”
Elsewhere, oil rebounded by more than 3% from a three-month low as China weighed measures to revitalize the world’s second-largest economy.
West Texas Intermediate futures topped $69 a barrel after three losing sessions. 
Key events this week:
* Eurozone industrial production, Wednesday
* US PPI, Wednesday
* Federal Reserve rate decision, updated economic forecasts, Jerome Powell’s press conference, Wednesday
* IEA oil market report, Wednesday
* China property prices, retail sales, industrial production, Thursday
* European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde holds press conference following the rate decision, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, retail sales, empire manufacturing, business inventories, industrial production, Thursday
* Bank of Japan rate decision, Friday
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.8%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.8%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.3% to $1.0791
* The British pound rose 0.8% to $1.2608
* The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 140.21 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin was little changed at $25,886.45
* Ether was little changed at $1,739.66
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced nine basis points to 3.82%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.42%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 10 basis points to 4.43%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 3% to $69.15 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 0.7% to $1,956.60 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from John McCorry, John Viljoen, Isabelle Lee, Cecile Gutscher, Sagarika Jaisinghani, Julien Ponthus, Peyton Forte, Allegra Catelli, Blaise Robinson, Carly Wanna, Emily Graffeo, Brett Miller and Tassia Sipahutar.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Meet bitterness with kindness. –Lao Tzu, 6^thc. BC-5^th c. BC.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com