June 12th, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:  Happy Friday Eve.
June 12, 1898: Filipino revolutionary forces under Emilio Aguinaldo proclaim independence from Spanish colonial rule, marking the birth of the Philippine nation.
On June 12, 1987, during a visit to the divided German city of Berlin, President Ronald Reagan publicly challenged Soviet leader Mikhail S. Gorbachev to ”tear down this wall.”  Go to article.

George H.W. Bush, 41^st US President, b. 1924.
Anne Frank, writer, b. 1929.
June 12, 1939, Baseball Hall of Fame opened.

‘Strawberry Moon’ in pictures: Major lunar standstill sees June’s full moon hang low in the sky
Tuesday night’s “Strawberry Moon” hovered lower in the night sky than it had done since 2006. Here are some stunning global snaps of June’s full moon during the major lunar standstill. Read More.

Russian scientists discover a new island in the Caspian Sea — the world’s largest inland body of water
Researchers have confirmed the existence of a new island in the northern part of the Caspian Sea, but they haven’t managed to land on it yet. Read More.

Almost half of California’s faults — including San Andreas — are overdue for earthquakes
California’s earthquakes are far more likely to be “overdue” compared with earthquakes in the rest of the world. Read More.

‘People thought this couldn’t be done’: Scientists observe light of ‘cosmic dawn’ with a telescope on Earth for the first time ever
For the first time, astronomers have used a ground-based telescope to observe polarized microwave light from the universe’s earliest epoch. Their observations could give them a better understanding of how the universe evolved. Read More.

Surprise! That’s some unique DNA.
Scientists studying 6,000-year-old skeletons found in the Eastern Colombian Andes made an interesting discovery: The subjects belonged to a previously unknown population.
‘I’m missing you like mad’
A love letter written by John Lennon to his first wife will be up for auction next month. The four-page missive is expected to fetch more than $50,000.

“We want peace for Ukraine. Despite weeks of diplomatic attempts, despite (Ukraine’s) President (Volodymyr) Zelensky’s offer of an unconditional ceasefire, Russia continues to bring death and destruction to Ukraine. Russia’s goal is not peace, it is to impose the rule of might.” — European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, after the European Union announced a new package of sanctions against Russia.

‘There’s a cost to grace’
“Lights Out: Nat ‘King’ Cole,” a new play starring Dulé Hill (“The West Wing,” “The Wonder Years”), explores the trials and triumphs of the late crooner.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Bruton, UK
A pilot checks rigging inside a hot air balloon before a sunrise launch over Gilcombe farm, Somerset, to announce the Show of Hands music and arts festival
Photograph: Ben Birchall/PA

Latakia, Syria
A man rides a jetski off the Mediterranean coast
Photograph: Omar Haj Kadour/AFP/Getty

London, England
The main room of the newly opened V&A East Storehouse Museum at the former site of the 2012 Olympic Games
Photograph: Henry Nicholls/AFP/Getty
Market Closes for June 12^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
For whosoever hath, to him shall be given, and he shall have more abundance: but whosoever hath not, from him shall be taken away even that he hath. – Matthew 13:12.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the third day, climbing 0.3%, or 91.59 to 26,615.75 in Toronto.
Enbridge Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.6%.
TransAlta Corp. had the largest increase, rising 8.5%.
Today, 153 of 217 shares rose, while 61 fell; 10 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 6.8%
* So far this week, the index rose 0.7%
* The index advanced 21% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 12% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 24% above its low on June 17, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1% in the past 5 days and rose 4.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19 on a trailing basis and 16.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.26t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.67% compared with 6.79% in the previous session and the average of 13.40% over the past month

Index Points
Financials | 36.3547| 0.4| 21/4
Materials | 33.4367| 0.9| 33/16
Energy | 30.4652| 0.7| 21/18
Industrials | 12.8809| 0.4| 20/8
Consumer Staples | 11.5074| 1.1| 8/2
Utilities | 8.6776| 0.9| 12/3
Communication Services | 7.1995| 1.2| 5/0
Real Estate | 3.4389| 0.7| 17/2
Consumer Discretionary | 2.3881| 0.3| 5/5
Health Care | 1.2923| 2.0| 3/1
Information Technology | -56.0534| -2.2| 8/2
Enbridge | 15.2800| 1.6| -37.9| 4.4
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | 12.8400| 2.2| -32.3| 47.7
Barrick Mining | 9.8110| 2.9| 14.1| 27.8
Ivanhoe Mines | -3.9210| -7.2| 182.1| -41.4
Teck Resources | -4.4390| -2.7| -13.3| -11.4
Shopify | -63.4300| -4.8| -11.1| -2.9
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed at a second-straight record high on Thursday as investors appear confident that an all-out global trade war can still be avoided, despite ongoing threats from the United States against a plethora of nations, including Canada, while National Bank offered some thoughts for
Canadians around “gaming out” trade talks with their North American neighbors.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index ended the session up 91.5 points at 26,615.75, even with commodity prices mixed, and some sectors lower.
Among sectors, Telecoms, up 1.2%, and Health Care, up 1.1%, were the biggest gainers.
But the Battery Metals Index was down 1.3%, Info Tech was down near 0.8% and Base Metals eased 0.6%.
Of individual stocks, Optiva (OPT.TO) saw its shares climb more than 100%, climbing $1.36 to $2.66.
At the request of the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization, Optiva confirmed it is not aware of any material undisclosed information related to the company that would account for the increase.
More than 50,000 shares changed hands, near 10 times the average.
On trade and tariffs, National Bank Geopolitical Analyst Angelo Katsoras in a note entitled ‘Geopolitical Briefing: Gaming out trade negotiations with the United States’ said the bottom line for Canadians is that Prime Minister Mark Carney must convince U.S. President Trump that Canada is essential to the U.S. supply chain as the country rebuilds its industrial base amid rising energy costs and logistical challenges.
According to Katsoras, Trump’s reversal of many of his tariffs has been “a sliver of good news”.
For example, he noted, after imposing a 25% tariff on all Canadian goods, Trump soon granted exemptions for most products compliant with USMCA rules of origin.
Though, he also noted, notable exemptions remain, citing automobiles, steel, and aluminum.
Katsoras said: “This allows the vast majority of Canadian exports to enter the United States tariff free.
More rollbacks may follow as economic concerns grow and the U.S. mid-term elections approach, with Republicans trying to hold on to their slim majority in Congress.”
When we examine the longevity of many of Trump’s tariffs, it is important to note that, while the President secured a solid victory in the 2024 election, it was not a landslide.
He garnered only 49.8% of the popular vote, just 1.5 percentage points more than the Democratic candidate, Katsoras noted.
Future U.S. administrations, whether Republican or Democratic, are likely to take a less protectionist approach toward Canada, provided that Canada aligns with U.S. positions on tariffs and geopolitical priorities, Katsoras said.
However, he added, a return to the level of free trade seen in past decades is unlikely.
Katsoras noted that although Trump’s embrace of tariffs is unprecedented, support for protectionist measures has grown across both parties, particularly with respect to China.
President Biden retained many of Trump’s tariffs and expanded them in key sectors.
His Inflation Reduction Act introduced hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies for favored industries, prompting Canada and other countries to increase their own subsidies to remain competitive, Katsoras said
Additionally, once tariffs are in place, industries that benefit from them often lobby to keep some of them in place.
A notable example of this is the 25% tariff on European trucks imposed in 1964 and still in effect today, Katsoras added.
Finally, Katsoras said, Canada’s deep economic and political ties with the United States leave little room for major policy differences in areas such as trade, defense, and regulations.
Like smaller nations neighboring China jjjor smaller E.U. member states aligning with dominant regional powers, Canada often follows Washington’s lead, Katsoras added.
For instance, he noted under Biden, Canada mirrored U.S. actions by imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese Evs and a 25% tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum.
“Eliminating these tariffs would greatly jeopardize access to the U.S. market.
This pattern is likely to continue in an era of rising protectionism, reshoring and intensifying global rivalries.”
Meanwhile, the chief economist at one of Europe’s largest banks said Canada stands to gain as global investors rethink their focus on the U.S, according to a report from The Canadian Press.
BNP Paribas chief economist Isabelle Mateos y Lago said in an interview that the volatility in the U.S. is making investors regain an appreciation of the value of stable returns and predictability, even if it means giving up some of the outsized gains it has offered in recent years.
“The general situation is every investor on the face of the planet has been very overweight (the) U.S. economy and is now going through a thought process of thinking, maybe I shouldn’t be so overweight the U.S. economy, and I need to diversify and find alternatives,” she said.
“So, every other geography is going through a bit of a beauty contest right now in the eyes of global investors, and has an opportunity to shine, and I think Canada is one of those.”
Mateos y Lago, who was in Toronto this week visiting clients, said Canada’s recent election helps give the country some momentum, while efforts to address structural barriers like internal trade will also help growth.
“It’s a moment of opportunity and so I would be shocked if Canada didn’t benefit from it.”
Among commodities today, gold was sharply higher late afternoon on Thursday as rising Middle East tensions supports safe-haven buying and the dollar fell to the lowest in three years amid slowing U.S. inflation.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up $65.20 to US$3.408.90 per ounce.
But West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell off a five-week high even as the dollar fell to the lowest in three years and Middle East tensions are rising.
WTI oil for July delivery closed down $0.11 to settle at US$68.04 per barrel, while August Brent crude was last seen down $0.08 to US$69.71.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A solid sale of long-term Treasuries reduced fears that spiraling deficits are causing investors to shun the bonds, with the market also gaining as soft inflation fueled bets the Federal Reserve will cut rates should the economy decelerate.
The dollar hit a three-year low.
Stocks rose.
US 30-year yields approached the 4.8% mark after the $22 billion auction.
The S&P 500 closed at the highest since Feb. 20, ending at a striking distance of its all-time high.
Oracle Corp. climbed to a record on a strong sales outlook.
Geopolitical worries briefly weighed on equities as ABC News reported Israel is considering military action against Iran.
Oil pared most of its losses.
US inflation remained muted in May, a sign that tariffs have yet to result in higher prices for consumers and businesses.
The producer price index rose 0.1% from a month earlier, compared with the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists that called for a 0.2% increase.
“For the second day in a row, inflation data came in lower than expected, and this gives the Fed room to sit on their hands,” said Chris Zaccarelliat Northlight Asset Management.
“As long as inflation isn’t increasing – or even better, is decreasing – the Fed can be patient and wait for more information on how the new tariffs and trade negotiations are going to impact the price stability part of their dual mandate later this year.”
As more evidence emerged of slowing inflation, President Donald Trump reiterated his complaints that the Fed has not moved quickly enough to cut rates.
Trump also noted he did not plan to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, days after saying he would “soon” pick his nominee to lead the central bank next.
On the trade front, Trump said he may raise US auto tariffs in order to boost domestic auto manufacturing, a move that could further ratchet up tensions with trading partners.
Shares of General Motors Co., Ford Motor Co. and Stellantis NV fell.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that there are a number of different assessments of the deficit impact of Republicans’ signature tax-cut bill, and that his own expectation is it will shrink borrowing over a decade.
“While stocks have rebounded and are approaching the record levels seen in February, investors may soon be wondering what could push stocks beyond that threshold,” said Rick Gardner at RGA Investments.
“The next catalyst for markets may be a trade deal with China, the extension of the 2017 tax cuts and the prospect of Fed rate cuts as inflation continues to soften.”
Traders who hung on during this year’s tariff-fueled roller-coaster ride in stocks are facing a conundrum: Bonds may offer more attractive returns in coming years, according to one widely tracked measure.
The equity risk premium, which investors use to determine the difference between expected returns on equities and US Treasuries, is hovering around its lowest point since 2002, data from Bloomberg Intelligence showed.
That suggests stocks are more expensive relative to bonds than they have been for most of the last two decades, according to Bloomberg Intelligence strategists Gina Martin Adams and Michael Casper.
Ned Davis Research is the latest Wall Street firm to raise its S&P 500 target after US stocks recovered their losses from Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs but admitted to the difficulty of trying to make equity market forecasts against the current macroeconomic backdrop.
The firm lifted its year-end estimate for US stock benchmark to 6,350 from 5,550.
Meantime, ARK Investment Management founder Cathie Wood says corporate America is regaining its appetite for risk as expectations build around Trump’s push for deregulation and tax cuts.
Speaking on Bloomberg’s Trumponomics podcast during the Founders Forum Global conference in Oxford, Wood said major US firms are ramping up capital spending in response to a more business-friendly policy outlook.
She cited Meta Platforms Inc.’s reported investment in the AI startup Scale AI as one sign of that shift.
The US stock market is back on track and within spitting distance of February’s all-time highs.
Yet corporate executives are dumping shares at the fastest clip since November.
A gauge of insider sentiment, which tracks the numbers of buyers versus sellers, shows that 200 insiders bought shares this month through June 11, while 778 sold shares, according to data compiled by the Washington Service.
That puts the buy to sell ratio at around 0.26, the lowest since November when Trump’s reelection triggered a months-long rally.

Corporate Highlights:
* The deadly crash of an Air India long-range aircraft on Thursday marks the first-ever complete loss of a Boeing Co. 787 Dreamliner, shining a spotlight on the US planemaker’s most advanced aircraft.
* Oracle Corp. projected cloud infrastructure sales will jump more than 70% in the fiscal year that began this month, boosting shares in late trading on investor enthusiasm for the closely watched business.
* Arm Holdings Plc Chief Executive Officer Rene Haas said that US export controls in China threaten to slow overall technological advances and are ultimately bad for consumers and companies, aligning himself with Nvidia Corp. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang and others looking to ease tensions between Washington and Beijing.
* A senior Trump administration official projected that Huawei Technologies Co.’s output of its Ascend AI chip will be at or below 200,000 for 2025, responding to US lawmakers’ concerns that China is gaining ground in production of advanced semiconductors.
* CoreWeave Inc.’s soaring share price is torching short sellers who are paying high prices to bet that the stock will soon fall back to earth.
* Warner Bros. Discovery Inc.’s decision to split into two independent companies is a sign of a broader “shakeout” across a media industry that has become increasingly dominated by streaming and on-demand services, Netflix Inc. co-Chief Executive Officer Greg Peters said.
* Chipmaker Micron Technology Inc. said it will spend about $200 billion on US manufacturing, research and development, the latest company to pledge large-scale investments in the country since President Trump won the election.
* GameStop Corp. plans to offer $1.75 billion worth of convertible bonds, which would make the video-game retailer one of the year’s biggest issuers of the equity-linked securities.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.4%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index was little changed
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.6%
* The euro rose 0.8% to $1.1576
* The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.3602
* The Japanese yen rose 0.7% to 143.57 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.9% to $106,873.29
* Ether fell 4.2% to $2,698.55
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined seven basis points to4.35%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 2.48%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined eight basis points to 4.48%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
* Spot gold rose 1% to $3,388.38 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Baseball is 90% mental, the other half is physical. –Yogi Berra, 1925-2015.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com