June 11th, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Full moon tonight!  It’s the strawberry moon.  King Kamehameha Day, Hawaii.

June 11,1817: German inventor Karl Drais demonstrates the first predecessor of the modern bicycle – the Laufmaschine, a two-wheeled, pedal-less vehicle, covering 14 km in under an hour.
June 11, 1942: The United States and the Soviet Union signed a lend lease agreement to aid the Soviet war effort in World War II. Go to article.

Richard Strauss, composer, b. 1864.
Jacques Cousteau, undersea explorer, b. 1910.
William Styron, writer, b. 1925.

‘Lost Colony’ of Roanoke may have assimilated into Indigenous society, archaeologist claims — but not everyone is convinced
The recent discovery of copious amounts of iron trash on North Carolina’s Hatteras Island may reveal the fate of a 16th-century “Lost Colony.” Read More.

When is the summer solstice in 2025? It depends on your time zone.
The summer solstice, the longest day of the year in the Northern Hemisphere, falls on June 20 this year in North America. Read More.

Haunting blood-red squid with large hooks drifts through Antarctic ocean’s midnight zone in world-first video
Researchers have filmed a living Antarctic gonate squid in a world-first sighting deep in the ocean surrounding Antarctica. Read More.

IBM will build monster 10,000-qubit quantum computer by 2029 after ‘solving science’ behind fault tolerance — the biggest bottleneck to scaling up
The quantum computer, called Starling, will use 200 logical qubits — and IBM plans to follow this up with a 2,000-logical-qubit machine in 2033. Read More.

First-ever image of China’s mysterious ‘quasi moon’ probe revealed weeks after it secretly launched into space
A new image released by China’s space agency offers the first glimpse at the Tianwen 2 spacecraft, which is en route to collect samples from one of Earth’s “quasi-moons”. The photo shows some surprising similarities with a current NASA probe. Read More.

Summer McIntosh’s super summer
The Canadian swimming phenom made history for the second time in three days by smashing a decade-old record in the 200m individual medley.

Dress like a princess
Over 100 pieces from the late Princess Diana’s wardrobe will go up for auction this month. 

Hack your body’s sleep system
Always feeling tired? Here are four things you can do to make the most of your circadian rhythm.

68.2:  That’s about how many miles ultrarunner Will Goodge ran every day while completing his 2,387-mile run across Australia in 35 days. 

RIP: Brian D. Wilson of The Beach Boys,  1942-2025.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Roslin, Scotland
A conservator examines stonework on the south facade of Rosslyn chapel, which featured in the film The Da Vinci Code, during annual maintenance work
Photograph: Jane Barlow/PA

Saumur, France
A groom at the Cadre Noir de Saumur, part of the French military riding academy, prepares saddles for a morning show
Photograph: Loïc Venance/AFP/Getty Images

Washington DC, US
The Capitol building at dawn, before of the US army’s 250th anniversary celebration and parade
Photograph: Alexander Drago/Reuters
Market Closes for June 11^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
Funny thing about these skyscrapers.  Not a single one was built by a bear! -J.P. Morgan, 1837-1913.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.4%, or 97.85 to 26,524.16 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 0.8% on June 2.
Today, energy stocks led the market higher, as 5 of 11 sectors gained; 111 of 217 shares rose, while 104 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.5%.
Dollarama Inc. had the largest increase, rising 9.8%.

Insights
* This quarter, the index rose 6.4%
* The index advanced 21% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 23.6% above its low on June 17, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.7% in the past 5 days and rose 4.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.9 on a trailing basis and 16.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.25t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.79% compared with 6.86% in the previous session and the average of 13.71% over the past month

Index Points
Energy | 57.6233| 1.3| 36/5
Information Technology | 52.7280| 2.1| 5/5
Consumer Discretionary | 26.0426| 3.0| 3/7
Materials | 20.4617| 0.6| 29/20
Health Care | 0.0208| 0.0| 1/2
Communication Services | -0.7109| -0.1| 2/3
Utilities | -2.1805| -0.2| 5/10
Real Estate | -2.9113| -0.6| 2/17
Industrials | -3.0968| -0.1| 17/11
Consumer Staples | -16.0467| -1.5| 2/8
Financials | -34.0739| -0.4| 9/16
Shopify | 44.4200| 3.5| 4.8| 2.0
Dollarama | 33.4900| 9.8| 202.1| 37.6
Suncor | 14.3200| 3.2| -15.2| 3.5
RBC | -7.4400| -0.4| -48.2| 0.8
Couche-Tard | -8.9960| -2.2| 4.2| -8.8
TD Bank | -9.5760| -0.8| -20.2| 25.4
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed at a record high on Wednesday, even with sectors mixed, as Scotiabank said recessions are likely to be avoided in Canada and the United States “unless uncertainty and tariffs rise further,” though it did note there are “clear signs” of an economic slowdown across North America.
Boosted by elevated commodity prices, the S&P/TSX Composite Index closed was up 97.65 points to 26,524.16, topping the prior record high of 26,429.13 set on June 6.
Among sectors, Energy, up 2.2%, and Info Tech, up 1.4%, were the biggest gainers.
Base Metals, down 1.65%, and the Battery Metals Index, down 1.2%, were the biggest losers.
Staying with sectors, economist David Rosenberg on Wednesday afternoon published a note entitled ‘Canadian Utilities: A Single-Sector Diversification Strategy’ in which he said the sector “combines elements of both stocks and bonds, making it a useful addition to most portfolios”.
“Who needs a classic 60-40 asset mix? It’s all embedded in this one sector, with hedges against recession/expansion/inflation/deflation expressed right here in the Utilities space.
Imagine that: a single-sector diversification strategy — the ability to play both defense and offense at the same time.
Ergo, Utilities should be a core part of anyone’s portfolio. Full stop,” Rosenberg wrote.
Elsewhere, Scotiabank, in a Wednesday note entitled ‘Cloudy with a Chance of Tariff Relief’, said fiscal measures in Canada will provide support to growth this year, with the potential for significantly more support pending policy announcements by federal and provincial governments.
But Scotia did acknowledge that inflation remains a concern that will limit the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve’s ability to support the economy in 2025.
“Inflation control will require much vigilance by central banks,” it added.
Scotiabank expects both central banks to remain on hold this year and to lower rates in 2026.
Among commodities, gold futures rose late afternoon on Wednesday as the dollar and yields fell after a report showed U.S. inflation eased last month.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up US$26.30 to US$3,369.70 per ounce.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed up nearly 5% to a five-week high after trade talks between the United States and China ended with a tentative deal to relax export controls on sensitive goods and technologies.
WTI crude oil for July delivery closed up $3.17 to settle at US$68.15 per barrel, the highest since April 2, while August Brent crude was last seen up $2.29 to US$69.16.

US
By Rita Nazareth and Andre Janse van Vuuren
(Bloomberg) — A slide in big tech dragged down stocks, following a rally that drove the S&P 500 to a striking distance of its all-time highs.
Earlier gains were fueled by surprisingly benign inflation data that stoked bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts, spurring a drop in bond yields.
Equities halted a three-day advance, with Apple Inc. down about 2% and Tesla Inc. little changed after a nearly 3% surge.
In late hours, Oracle Corp. surged after revenue beat estimates.
Treasuries also climbed after a solid $39 billion sale of 10- year debt.
The advance was led by shorter maturities, with two- year yields dropping below 4%.
The dollar hit the lowest since 2023.
US core inflation rose in May by less than forecast, suggesting companies are largely holding back on passing higher tariff costs through to consumers.
President Donald Trump said a trade framework with China has been completed, with Beijing supplying rare earths and magnets “UP FRONT” and the US allowing Chinese students into its colleges and universities.
Despite Wednesday’s losses, the S&P 500 has seen a torrid rally from the brink of a bear market in April.
Much of the bounce, which topped 20%, has been pinned on hopes that Trump would lower his tariffs after reaching deals with countries around the world.
“Given the rebound in equities and elevated expectations, the bar has been raised to break out to a fresh high, likely requiring an increase in earnings expectations,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
The string of below-forecast inflation readings adds to evidence that consumers have yet to feel the pinch of tariffs — perhaps because the most punitive levies have temporarily been on pause, or thanks to companies so far absorbing the extra costs or boosting inventory.
However, if higher levies set in, shielding consumers from those costs will become more difficult.
“It’s far too early to call tariffs an inflation non- event,” said Ronald Temple at Lazard.
“Ultimately, companies will have to swallow some combination of price increases to pay for higher tariffs, cost cuts to offset increased import costs, and/or lower profit margins.
I don’t see evidence in this early report of widespread price increases, but I do expect higher inflation this year as firms react to the tariffs.”
To Bret Kenwell at eToro, while the latest inflation report didn’t come in hot, the consumer price index hasn’t made a lot of progress lately.
Looking forward, investors should pay close attention to the Fed next week, he said.
“So far, Chair Jerome Powell has walked a tightrope when it comes to monetary policy,” Kenwell noted.
“While Powell doesn’t give many clues on future Fed decisions and does a good job not to tip his hand, investors crave certainty and will be looking for some answers during next week’s Fed press conference.
” Following the report, Trump reiterated his call for the Fed to lower interest rates by “one full point.”
“Would pay much less interest on debt coming due. So important!!!” he posted on Truth Social.
Money markets projected about two Fed reductions by the end of 2025 as traders boosted bets on a September cut to around 75%.

Corporate Highlights:
* Shares of several American steelmakers fell after the US and Mexico closed in on a deal to remove tariffs on some imports of the metal, prompting speculation that other nations could also get concessions.
* The Air Force has cut in half its request to Congress for its signature F-35s, dealing a blow to Lockheed Martin Corp., the top US defense contractor.
* Trump’s nominee to lead the Federal Aviation Administration vowed to hold Boeing Co. accountable for the quality of its jets as the US plane maker works to produce its cash cow 737 Max aircraft at higher rates.
* Bank of America Corp. Chief Executive Officer Brian Moynihan said investment-banking fees will likely drop about 25% in the second quarter as Trump’s policy announcements continue to chill dealmaking.
* Nvidia Corp. Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang said Wednesday that quantum computing is reaching an inflection point and will be powerful enough in the coming years to help “solve some interesting problems” globally.
* General Motors Co. plans to invest $4 billion in its US plants over the next two years in response to Trump’s tariffs in a move that reduces production in Mexico while boosting domestic output of some of its some of its top-selling gas-powered vehicles.
* Victoria’s Secret & Co. projected profit for the current quarter that trailed Wall Street’s expectations — a hit to the fledging turnaround being led by a chief executive officer in her first year.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.1%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.8%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.5% to $1.1483
* The British pound rose 0.3% to $1.3539
* The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 144.63 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.1% to $108,771.28
* Ether rose 1.4% to $2,813.97
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined six basis points to 4.41%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 2.53%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 4.55%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 4.5% to $67.92 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.7% to $3,347.39 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
I’d like to live as a poor man with lots of money. –Pablo Picasso, 1881-1973.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com