July 7, 2022 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Fiesta de San Fermin: Running of the Bulls, Pamplona, Spain.
Tanabata, Star Festival, Japan.
Ringo Starr, musician, b. 1940.
Robert A. Heinlein, writer, b. 1907.

Tomorrow 99% of Earth’s population will be in sunlight at the same time

Archaeologists will open a tomb supposedly tied to King Arthur, possibly looking for a Boris replacement.

Head of Hercules and other treasures found on Roman ‘Antikythera Mechanism’ shipwreck:  The 2,000-year-old Roman shipwreck that carried the Antikythera Mechanism — a precise mechanical model of the sun, moon and planets — is giving up new treasures, including a marble head thought to depict the Greek and Roman demigod Hercules. Scientists and divers made the new discoveries after creating the first phases of a precise digital 3D model of the shipwreck, which sank near Antikythera, a Greek island in the southern Aegean Sea, in about the second quarter of the first century B.C. The digital model — which the scientists made with thousands of underwater photographs of the seafloor site, using a technique called photogrammetry — could help in the search for more pieces of the mysterious geared mechanism, the team said.  Full Story: Live Science (7/6) 

July’s ‘Buck supermoon’ will look bigger and brighter than ever next Wednesday: July’s full moon — nicknamed the Buck Moon — will charge across Earth’s skies on Wednesday, July 13. The moon will reach its peak at about 2:38 p.m. EDT (18:38 UTC) on Wednesday, but the Buck doesn’t stop here; the moon will appear bright and full on Tuesday and Thursday night (July 12 and July 14), as well.
Avid sky watchers may notice that the moon looks even larger and brighter than normal. That’s because, for the third month in a row, the full moon will rise as a supermoon — or a full moon that occurs while the moon is around or at its closest point to Earth, also known as its perigee. This month, the moon reaches perigee at about 5 a.m. EDT (09:00 UTC) on July 13, just 10 hours before the full moon rises.  Full Story: Live Science (7/7) 

Mummified mystery pup that died 18,000 years ago was a wolf: A mummified pup discovered in Siberia is not a dog, new research finds. Rather, the cute-and-cuddly canine is actually a young wolf.
In a new study aimed at understanding dog domestication, researchers analyzed the genome of the puppy, along with the genomes of 72 ancient wolves. The pup, which was found in the Siberian permafrost in 2018 and whose lineage has been debated ever since, was nicknamed “Dogor” and was fully intact, with pettable fur and unbroken whiskers. At first, scientists couldn’t tell if the 18,000-year-old pup was a wolf or a dog, but the new analysis revealed that it was a wolf — and that it was not very closely related to the earliest dogs.  Full Story: Live Science (7/7) 

Dinosaurs took over the planet because they could endure the cold, scientists say: Dinosaurs took over the planet thanks to their surprising ability to endure freezing-cold temperatures, ancient footprints have revealed.
The dinosaur tracks, stamped into the sandstone and siltstone of ancient lake beds in the Junggar Basin of northwestern China, suggest that more than 200 million years ago, the reptiles had already adapted to survive the cold of the polar regions before a mysterious mass extinction event plunged the world into freezing darkness. Full Story: Live Science (7/6) 

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

A bull bears down on participants at the traditional running of the bulls, part of the San Fermin festival in Navarra, which resumed after a two-year hiatus during to the Covid pandemic
CREDIT: Jesús Diges/EPA

Ukrainian service people planting a national flag on Snake Island in the Black Sea, as Russia’s attacks in the east of the country continue
CREDIT: Ukrainian Armed Forces/Reuters

Critically endangered six-week-old black and white ruffed lemur pups and their mother at Blair Drummond Safari and Adventure Park
CREDIT: Andrew Milligan/PA

Market Closes for July 7^th, 2022

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1993, Charles W. Knapp was found guilty on three counts of conspiracy after his savings & loan empire collapsed, costing the U.S. taxpayer $2 billion. Mr. Knapp’s American Savings & Loan Association was once the nation’s largest thrift, but it was seized by Federal regulators in 1984 and later settled a U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission lawsuit charging it with fraudulent overstating of earnings.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 1.8% at 19,063.17 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest gain since June 24 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.6%.
Today, energy stocks led the market higher, as 10 of 11 sectors gained; 208 of 238 shares rose, while 25 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 6.4%. Advantage Energy Ltd. had the largest increase, rising 13.4%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain four times. The next day, it advanced three times for an average 0.7% and declined 1.7% once
* So far this week, the index rose 1.1%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended May 27
* The index declined 6% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 12% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 14.2% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 2.9% above its low on July 5, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and fell 8.9% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.9 on a trailing basis and 11.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 20.23% compared with 19.49% in the previous session and the average of 19.98% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
* Energy | 106.0837| 3.2| 38/0
* Financials | 76.2353| 1.3| 27/2
* Materials | 52.4502| 2.5| 45/3
* Information Technology | 35.2553| 3.4| 12/2
* Consumer Staples | 22.4753| 2.9| 9/2
* Consumer Discretionary | 20.2090| 3.3| 12/1
* Industrials | 11.6600| 0.5| 24/5
* Real Estate | 4.7088| 0.9| 18/4
* Utilities | 3.6271| 0.4| 13/3
* Health Care | 2.3658| 3.1| 7/0
* Communication Services | -1.5589| -0.2| 3/3
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
| Index | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors |Points Move|% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
* Shopify | 21.8000| 6.4| 216.9| -73.7
* Royal Bank of Canada | 18.9400| 1.6| 24.7| -5.0
* Canadian Natural Resources | 14.1600| 2.8| -20.2| 21.1
* Shaw Communications | -1.6990| -1.5| -7.1| -5.1
* Waste Connections | -1.8430| -0.6| -28.8| -5.1
* Canadian National | -4.8750| -0.8| -15.5| -5.4
US
By Isabelle Lee and Peyton Forte
(Bloomberg) — US stocks rallied for the fourth straight day on optimism that the Federal Reserve will be able to curb inflation without tipping the economy into a recession.
The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rose the most in two weeks.
Commodities from oil to copper jumped as the dollar dropped for the first time in five days.
The two- and 10-year Treasury yield curve remained inverted for a third day even as Fed Governor Christopher Waller dismissed recession fears on Thursday.
Both Waller and fellow hawk James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Fed, backed raising rates by another 75 basis points this month.
Investors have been whipsawed in the past two weeks between concern over runaway inflation and the fear of a US recession.
The Federal Reserve’s last meeting showed that policy makers resolved to continue raising rates, a promise restated by Bullard and Waller on Thursday.
But a flurry of economic data that released this week has hinted at slower growth, calming investors over the pace of tightening needed.
All eyes will be on the US jobs report on Friday for further clues about the Fed’s path of rate hikes.
“The number one bugaboo for the markets is inflation and increasingly we are seeing some signs that peak inflation may be in the rear mirror here,” David Dietze, managing principal and senior portfolio strategist for Peapack Private Wealth  Management, told Bloomberg Radio. “Now are we where we want to be? Absolutely not. We’re not going to get to 2% anytime soon.  The key thing I think from an investor’s point of view is the direction is changing.”
Worries about a brutal recession may have also been alleviated by latest data which showed that consumer spending has remained resilient despite inflation. An inverted yield curve, however, still signals fears of a recession are not over.  “The Goldilocks scenario is that the Fed slows the economy enough to reduce inflation from the current 8.6%, 40 year-high level without tipping us into recession,” said Ellen Hazen, chief market strategist and portfolio manager at F.L.Putnam Investment Management. “And so any data point that suggests that either inflation is coming down faster so that the Fed can take their foot off the brake quicker, or that recession looks less likely through coincident indicators, would give the market relief.”
Commodities were boosted on Thursday as China’s Ministry of Finance is said be considering allowing local governments to sell 1.5 trillion yuan ($220 billion) of special bonds this year.
But the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index is still down about 21% from a June high.
“We’ve seen a big pull in commodities that’s sort of easing those inflation fears that have been driving the fear of recession and of more aggressive tightening,” said Fiona Cincotta, senior financial markets analyst at City Index Ltd.
In the UK, Johnson left as the head of the government amid a series of scandals.
The pound rose as much as 0.8% on the news.
Bitcoin rose above the $20,000 level, but investors are losing confidence in crypto after news that customers of bankrupt broker Voyager Digital Ltd. likely won’t get all their money back.
What to watch this week:
* US employment report for June, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 2.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.1%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0165
* The British pound rose 0.8% to $1.2024
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 136.01 per dollar
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced eight basis points to 3.01%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced 11 basis points to 1.32%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.13%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 4.3% to $102.72 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 0.2% to $1,739.70 an ounce
–With assistance from Srinivasan Sivabalan and Enrique Roces.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann

The superior man, when resting in safety, does not forget that danger may come.  When in a state of security he does not forget the possibility of ruin. 
When all is orderly, he does not forget that disorder may come. –Confucius, 551 BC-479 BC.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com