July 29, 2022 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.
Oslok: Commemorates Viking King Olaf, Norway.

On this day in 2016, Hillary Clinton accepted the Democratic nomination for US President – the first woman for a major party.
July 29, 1958: NASA established.
July 29, 1914: Transcontinental telephone service began with the first phone conversation between New York and San Francisco. Go to article »

Reporter loses tooth on live TV: Give this reporter a trophy for handling the awkward incident so well… actually, a plaque would be even better. Watch the funny moment here.

Biden’s granddaughter announces White House wedding ceremony.  Not many people can say they got married on the South Lawn! Meet the lovely couple and learn more about their nuptial plans.

Two meteor showers will light up the night sky this weekend.  This one is for the night sky watchers. You may have a chance to catch a beautiful sight this weekend. Here’s how to watch.

Strange ‘alien’ holes discovered on the ocean floor: Explorers have discovered a series of mysterious, “perfectly aligned” holes punched into the seafloor roughly 1.6 miles (2.6 kilometers) beneath the ocean surface, and they have no idea who or what made them.  The strange holes were spotted by the crew of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Okeanos Explorer vessel as they investigated the Mid-Atlantic Ridge — a mostly unexplored region of the seafloor that is part of the world’s largest mountain range.  Full Story: Live Science (7/29) 

‘Never seen anything like it’: Impeccably preserved Jurassic fish fossils found on UK farm: A farm in England was the unlikely source of a Jurassic jackpot: a treasure trove of 183 million-year-old fossils.
On the outskirts of Gloucestershire in the Cotswolds, beneath soil that is currently trampled under the hooves of grazing cattle, researchers recently uncovered the fossilized remains of fish, giant marine reptiles called ichthyosaurs, squids, insects and other ancient animals dating to the early part of the Jurassic period (201.3 million to 145 million years ago).  Full Story: Live Science (7/29) 
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

A man stands in a cave at the Sardona glacier in Vaettis. The melting glacier revealed this cave.
CREDIT: Gian Ehrenzeller/AP

Ballet dancers perform during the Eyes Wide Shut show in Kyiv.
CREDIT: Alexey Furman/Getty Images

Flames engulf a chair inside a burning home as the Oak fire spreads in Mariposa county. Firefighters battling the explosive blaze near Yosemite national park significantly slowed the spread of the flames, but thousands of residents remained under evacuation, while smoke drifted to reach Lake Tahoe, parts of Nevada and the San Francisco Bay area.
CREDIT: Noah Berger/AP
Market Closes for July 29^th, 2022

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1869, the New York Stock Exchange was formed from the merger of the New York Stock & Exchange Board with the Open Board and the Government Board (where Treasury bonds were traded).
Canada
By Ana Paula Barreto Pereira
(Bloomberg) — Canadian equities gained in a broad rally after data showed that the Bank of Canada’s rate-hike campaign is proving effective in curbing inflation. The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the third day, climbing 1.2%, or 236.21 to 19,692.92 in Toronto.
The index closed at the highest level since mid-June, rising more than 4% July in its biggest monthly gain since October.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.5%. Capstone Copper Corp. had the largest percentage increase, rising 12.0%. Today, 196 of 238 shares rose, while 40 fell; 10 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Terminal users can read more in our markets live blog.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain 18 times. The next day, it advanced 11 times for an average 0.7% and declined seven times for an average 1.2%
* This month, the index rose 4.4%, heading for the biggest advance since October 2021
* So far this week, the index rose 3.7%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended Feb. 5
* The index declined 3% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 8.7% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 11.3% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 8.4% above its low on July 14, 2022
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.9 on a trailing basis and 12.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.12t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 17.23% compared with 16.97% in the previous session and the average of 19.36% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
* Financials | 67.2401| 1.1| 28/1
* Energy | 58.1192| 1.6| 33/5
* Materials | 50.8838| 2.4| 42/8
* Industrials | 41.0447| 1.7| 22/7
* Real Estate | 6.9358| 1.3| 23/0
* Consumer Discretionary | 4.6357| 0.7| 10/3
* Utilities | 3.7917| 0.4| 12/4
* Information Technology | 2.9749| 0.3| 11/3
* Communication Services | 2.5983| 0.3| 4/2
* Health Care | 1.4867| 2.2| 5/2
* Consumer Staples | -3.5036| -0.4| 6/5
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
* Canadian Natural Resources | 18.9300| 3.5| -50.3| 32.3
* Suncor Energy | 15.2900| 3.8| -23.0| 37.3
* TD Bank | 13.9100| 1.4| -56.9| -14.2
* Loblaw | -3.4970| -2.6| 65.4| 12.5
* TC Energy | -7.7060| -1.6| -37.0| 16.0
* Shopify | -11.3300| -3.1| 33.8| -74.4
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The stock market is wrapping up a chaotic week, with solid earnings from tech mega caps bringing solace to traders worried about the many cross-currents rattling economies around the globe.
After a horrific first half, the S&P 500 notched its best month since November 2020, while the Nasdaq 100 had its strongest monthly performance since April of that same year.
Big tech led gains on Friday, with Amazon.com Inc. and Apple Inc. soaring as higher revenues from the pair of iconic powerhouses countered fears about profit slowdown at time when the industry is rethinking its staffing needs.
Despite worrisome signals from economic proxies like Walmart Inc. and United Parcel Service Inc., the earnings season as a whole has turned out to be brighter than expected, with about 75% of the S&P 500 firms that have reported results beating analyst estimates. That’s fueling speculation that Corporate America will be able to weather the perfect storm of hot inflation, jumbo-sized rate hikes and dwindling growth.
Bloomberg Intelligence’s fair-value model suggests a modest recession may have been priced in following this year’s stock- market selloff. That means a price recovery could emerge with an earnings trough in the second half of 2022.
“The fact that earnings are not as bad as feared is a very constructive thing for the markets,” said Anastasia Amoroso, chief investment strategist at iCapital. “The fact that we have priced in a whole lot of slowdown already, that too has just de- risked the landscape. And so I think what can happen for the next couple of weeks is that the technical momentum really keeps moving stocks higher while we wait for the next Fed move or the next inflation print.”
Two key US price gauges posted larger-than-forecast increases, with the personal consumption expenditures index — which forms the basis for the Federal Reserve’s inflation target – climbing at the fastest pace since 2005.
Consumers’ long-term inflation expectations also remained elevated. Swaps showed traders increased bets on a 75-basis-point hike in September, though they continued to wager that a 50-basis-point hike was the most likely outcome. 
Fed Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic noted the US economy was “a ways” from entering a recession and officials have further to go in raising rates to get prices under control. Fed Governor Christopher Waller pushed back against economists Olivier Blanchard and Lawrence Summers, who said the central bank’s assertion that it can cool off labor demand without much impact on the unemployment rate “flies in the face” of evidence.
Despite the big rebound in stocks this month, several market watchers are skeptical about a sustained rally due to the many economic challenges and the fact that the market hasn’t gotten cheap enough to call it a bottom. “This is a rally within a bear market rather than the start of a new bull market,” said David Donabedian, chief investment officer of CIBC Private Wealth US. “We would expect a lower P/E ratio if we were at the bottom of the market.
While the equity market has partially recovered, we expect it will retest the lows we saw in June.” Donabedian says optimism about the Fed potentially wrapping up its tightening cycle earlier than expected is “more hope than reality”. He sees further rate hikes and says there’s still a lot of work ahead to bring down inflation while adding that “a slowing job market is on the way.”
In other corporate news, Intel Corp., the biggest maker of computer processors, slashed forecasts for the year. Roku Inc., the maker of streaming-TV devices, said advertisers are pulling back on spending due to economic concerns. Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. posted their highest-ever profits, reaping the rewards from surging commodity prices. Procter & Gamble Co.’s forecasts growth lagged estimates.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.8%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1%
* The MSCI World index rose 1.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.2% to $1.0221
* The British pound was little changed at $1.2177
* The Japanese yen rose 0.7% to 133.36 per dollar
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to
2.66%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 0.82%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 1.86%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.7% to $98.10 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 0.5% to $1,778.90 an ounce
–With assistance from Sunil Jagtiani, Abigail Moses, Vildana
Hajric, Emily Graffeo, Isabelle Lee, Michael Msika and Edward
Bolingbroke.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann

Divide each difficulty into as many parts as feasible and necessary to resolve it. –Rene Descartes, 1596-1650.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com