July 28th, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.

July 28, 1914: World War I begins as Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia, setting Europe on a path to global conflict.

July 28, 1945: A U.S. Army bomber crashed into the 79th floor of New York City’s Empire State Building, killing 14 people.  Go to article.

Beatrix Potter, writer, b.1866.
Lucy Burns, Suffragist, born in Brooklyn in 1879.
Marcel Duchamp, surrealist, b.1887
Jacqueline Kennedy, first lady, b.1929.
Terry Fox, cancer fundraiser, b.1958

Ancient DNA suggests ancestors of Estonians, Finns and Hungarians lived in Siberia 4,500 years ago
A study of genomes from ancient Siberian people shows genetic linkages with people living in Estonia, Finland and Hungary today. Read More.

Moon, Mars, and meteors: Why July 28 is the best night for skywatching all summer
A conjunction between a crescent moon and Mars joins an ongoing display of “shooting stars,” making July 28 one of the best nights for skywatching all summer. Read More.

The more advanced AI models get, the better they are at deceiving us — they even know when they’re being tested
More advanced AI systems show a better capacity to scheme and lie to us, and they know when they’re being watched — so they change their behavior to hide their deceptions. Read More.

Scientists are keeping an eye on this asteroid
The building-sized object initially appeared to be on a potential collision course with Earth. Now it may have a new target.

Marvel is back on top
“The Fantastic Four: First Steps” defeated a DC superhero to finish No. 1 at the box office over the weekend.

Beyoncé caps off Cowboy Carter tour with a bang 
The lucky fans who attended her farewell show in Las Vegas on Saturday night were treated to a starry lineup of surprise guests.

Gwyneth Paltrow’s latest role: Astronomer spokesperson
The actress appeared in a new ad for the tech firm whose ex-CEO and HR chief were caught embracing on the “kiss cam” at a Coldplay concert.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Ortisei, Italy
Tourists onboard a Seceda cable car travelling to the summit from the alpine town centre
Photograph: Simone Padovani/Getty Images

Shanghai, China
Revellers watch a boxing match between two remote-controlled robots by Unitree Robotics during the World Artificial Intelligence Conference
Photograph: Héctor Retamal/AFP/Getty Images

Stage 3, Valenciennes to Dunkerque
The peloton cycles under decorative streamers hung above the race route in Aire-sur-la-Lys.
Photograph: Marco Bertorello/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for July 28^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
Marx’s great achievement was to place the system of capitalism on the defensive. -Charles A. Madison, 1895-1985.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.3% at 27,405.42 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.5% on July 15 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.4%.
Today, materials stocks led the market lower, as 9 of 11 sectors lost; 142 of 212 shares fell, while 66 rose.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.0%.
New Gold Inc. had the largest drop, falling 6.0%.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 2%
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.4% below its 52-week high on July 25, 2025, and 26.5% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.3% in the past 5 days and rose 2.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.6 on a trailing basis and 17.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.45t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.24% compared with 6.11% in the previous session and the average of 6.07% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | -55.4196| -1.5| 3/44
Financials | -36.0864| -0.4| 9/15
Industrials | -21.8284| -0.6| 9/19
Communication Services | -8.4566| -1.3| 0/5
Consumer Staples | -6.9482| -0.7| 2/8
Utilities | -6.8274| -0.7| 2/12
Real Estate | -6.0683| -1.2| 1/18
Consumer Discretionary | -3.2093| -0.3| 3/6
Health Care | -0.0485| -0.1| 1/2
Information Technology | 23.0992| 0.8| 3/7
Energy | 32.8690| 0.8| 33/6
RBC | -17.6000| -1.0| 16.8| 3.4
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | -13.8600| -2.3| -8.6| 51.1
TD Bank | -10.3600| -0.8| -42.0| 33.0
Suncor | 9.0130| 2.0| 17.8| 7.0
Canadian Natural Resources | 12.6000| 2.0| -59.1| -1.1
Shopify | 30.1500| 2.1| -29.2| 13.8
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed down from a record high on Monday amid some profit taking and as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney indicated a trade deal with the United States that does not include tariffs is unlikely to be reached, raising concerns around what level eventual levies might be set at.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 88.93 points to 27,405.42 with most sectors lower, led by the Battery Metals Index and Telecoms, both down about 1.5%. Energy was easily the biggest gainer, up 1.9%.
The United States agreed to trade deals that set a 15% tariff on most goods it trades with both the European Union and Japan respectively, but Canada is under the threat of 35% tariffs on exports if a deal with its North America neighbor and largest trading partner cannot be reached by an Aug. 1 deadline.
Canada already faces U.S. levies on steel, aluminum, and automobiles, while new tariffs on copper are slated for introduction early next month.
Earlier Monday Prime Minister Mark Carney took questions on the fringes of a government event at which he indicated that a trade deal without tariffs was unlikely.
Carney said “there is a landing zone that is possible” for Canada to reach in terms of agreeing the best possible deal.
Meanwhile, former White House official Larry Haas said the Canadian government has reason to be concerned.
“The tone between the United States and Canada is a lot more negative than the tone seems to be between the United States and the E..U.,” Haas said during an interview with CTV News on Sunday.
“I think both countries … are preparing for the very strong possibility that we’re going to get tariffs.”
According to Haas, the deadline could still shift, depending on economic signals.
“Trump has backed away from other deadlines when it came to tariffs,” he told CTV, before adding: “If we approach August 1 and these tariffs are looming, and the stock market all of a sudden becomes shaky, I could envision another extension.”
While CTV noted that Canada has taken steps to respond to U.S. pressure, including boosting border inspections and cancelling a digital services tax, Haas noted the Canadian government faces a difficult negotiating environment.
“President Trump respects strength as opposed to weakness,” he said. “Canada needs to make clear to the United States that it’s not going to take just any deal.”
Of commodities, gold moved lower late afternoon on Monday as the dollar rose after a weekend trade agreement between the United States and the European Union calmed fears of a spreading global trade war, easing safe-haven demand.
Gold for December delivery was last seen down $18.90 to US$3,373.60 per ounce, remaining off the July 22 record high of US$3,501.80 per ounce.
But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed higher on the U.S. and Europe trade deal, with the Europeans agreeing to raise purchases of U.S. energy.
WTI crude oil for September delivery closed up US$1.55 to settle at US$66.71 per barrel, while September Brent oil was last seen up US$1.52 to US$69.96.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street kicked off a pivotal week with stocks holding at record highs while the dollar climbed the most since May as a tariff deal between President Donald Trump and the European Union bolstered hopes for an extension of a China trade truce.
Bonds edged lower.
The start of a key week for markets saw a dollar gauge up nearly 1%, extending its July rally.
The euro slid the most in over two months.
The S&P 500 briefly topped 6,400 to close little changed.
Treasuries barely budged amid mixed results from US debt sales.
Oil rose as Trump said he’d shorten his timeline for Russia to reach a truce with Ukraine.
In the run-up to the Aug. 1 US tariff deadline, traders will go through a raft of key data from jobs to inflation and economic activity.
The big event comes Wednesday when the Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged.
Then there’s a string of big-tech earnings, with four mega caps worth a combined $11.3 trillion reporting results.
“This is about as busy as a week can get in the markets,” said Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.
“This week could make or break that momentum in the near term.”
US and Chinese officials finished the first of two days of talks aimed at extending their tariff truce beyond a mid-August deadline and hashing out ways to maintain trade ties while safeguarding economic security.
Canada Prime Minister Mark Carney said his government is still deep in trade talks with the Trump administration.
The Treasury jacked up its estimate for federal borrowing for the current quarter to $1 trillion, mainly due to distortions from the debt limit.
On Wednesday, the department will announce its plans for note and bond sales over coming months — which dealers widely see as staying unchanged.
Speaking in Scotland on Sunday to announce the EU deal, Trump gave a brief update on Washington’s relations with Beijing.
“We’re very close to a deal with China. We really sort of made a deal with China, but we’ll see how that goes,” he said without elaborating.
“It is possible that as more trade deals are announced, the level of uncertainty that has hovered over business and the economy will ease,” said Brent Schutte at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co.
“Additionally, the impact of final trade deals could be less than originally forecast after the April 2 announcement of reciprocal tariffs.”
To Thierry Wizman at Macquarie Group, while the dollar’s strength today may reflect the perception that the new EU deal is lopsided in favor of the US, it may also reflect a feeling that America is reengaging with its major allies.
“Whether we agree or not with the use of tariffs and the deals announced, we are getting the big ones out of the way which will allow American businesses to adjust and plan, for better or worse,” said Peter Boockvar at the Boock Report.
“And we can now focus on how this all plays out.”
Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues will step into the central bank’s board room on Tuesday to deliberate on rates at a time of immense political pressure, evolving trade policy, and economic crosscurrents.
In a rare occurrence, policymakers will convene in the same week that the government issues reports on gross domestic product, employment and the Fed’s preferred price metrics.
Forecasters anticipate the heavy dose of data will show economic activity rebounded in the second quarter.
While the stock market is moving sideways after a solid run, “if we get no surprises in earnings and some dovish comments by the Fed, it’s likely we’ll see yet more new highs by the end of the week,” said Louis Navellier, chief investment officer at Navellier & Associates.
“We do not expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates on Wednesday, but it’s possible that they make a stronger signal that cuts are on the horizon in the fall, especially as the inflation data continues to stay muted even in this tariff environment,” said Rick Gardner at RGA Investments.
Gardner also says that while stock market valuations are high, that in and of itself is not a reason why valuations can’t expand even further from here.
In fact, this earnings season is off to a solid start, and all eyes will be on results from Microsoft Corp. and Meta Platforms Inc. on Wednesday, and Apple Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. on Thursday.
So far, Corporate America appears to be taking tariffs in stride.
With about a third of S&P 500 firms having reported, roughly 82% have beaten profit forecasts, on track for the best quarter in about four years, data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence show.
Progress in trade negotiations will take the S&P 500 to a third consecutive year of 20% gains, according to Oppenheimer Asset Management’s John Stoltzfus, a feat unseen since the late 1990s.
He raised his year-end target for the US benchmark to 7,100.
Some market forecasters including Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson have turned more optimistic about the S&P 500 as they expect earnings to remain upbeat.
The technical evidence suggests a broadening of participation in equities off the April low, according to Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler.
“Despite a slight easing in momentum as investors await earnings, the combination of several major indices at all-time highs and improving market breadth continues to draw investors off the sidelines, offering opportunities to buy the dip,” he said.
At RBC Capital Markets, Lori Calvasina says it would be premature to write off the impact of tariffs on inflation and corporate earnings.
“It also poses a risk to the path of stock prices if company outlooks for 2026 don’t end up being as rosy as investors have been anticipating,” she noted.
The S&P 500 is trading around 22.5 times projected earnings, compared to a 10-year average of 18.6.
That’s sparked concerns that there may be little room for error.
The stock market’s stunning rebound and resilience have again emboldened equity investors, who have developed muscle memory around ‘buying the dip’,” according to Lisa Shalett at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
“With volatility having decoupled from stress indicators, passive indexes have ground to new highs, while the most speculative corners of the market have begun to lead,” she said.
“Complacency is elevated, and valuations are rich. In this environment, we want to be stock pickers.”
To Mark Hackett at Nationwide, this may be the most compelling intersection of technical momentum and fundamental strength we’ve seen in a long time.
“The S&P hasn’t had a 1% move in over a month and yet bears have capitulated,” he said. “No one’s willing to short this market, and even typically skeptical investors are getting pulled in. While it’s not a blow-off top yet, the odds of that happening are rising.”
If sentiment keeps shifting and dip buyers remain aggressive, we could see a classic melt-up – and any near-term weakness over the next several weeks is likely to be bought aggressively, he said.
“However, for now, bears are hibernating through the summer,” Hackett concluded.
“We would lean toward being more bullish than bearish on US stocks through year-end, but not outside of a balanced portfolio based on risk,” said Anthony Saglimbene at Ameriprise.
“However, that view is contingent on positive corporate profitability and economic growth this year, avoiding worst-case tariff scenarios, and investors remaining willing to ‘buy the dip’.”
Markets have found reassurance in several developments, according to Invesco Global Market Strategy Office.
“For one, the worst fears that manifested around trade in early April haven’t materialized, and key trade agreements are being signed,” the strategists said.
“Tariff rates remain vastly elevated compared to last year, but they appear manageable.
In our view, it’s likely that the cost can be shared between businesses and consumers without a meaningful impact on growth or inflation.”
Invesco strategists also noted that what should really matter for stocks in the medium and long-term is earnings.
“After a strong market rally, investors should prepare for renewed volatility in the near term,” said Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management. “Potential market dips could offer an opportunity for investors to build long-term exposure to stocks.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Samsung Electronics Co. will produce AI semiconductors for Tesla Inc. in a new $16.5 billion pact that marks a win for its underperforming foundry division.
* Texas Instruments Inc. was upgraded to outperform at Wolfe Research, which said the chipmaker is “near the end” of a spending cycle.
* Cisco Systems Inc. was downgraded to inline at Evercore, which mentioned valuation following recent gains.
* Nike Inc. was raised to overweight at JPMorgan Chase & Co., which cited the earnings impact of the sportswear maker’s five- pronged multi-year recovery plan.
* Albertsons Cos. demanded that Kroger Co. provide details on personal conduct that led the company to replace its chief executive officer, who shepherded the failed $24.6 billion takeover that’s now the focus of litigation between the two companies.
* PayPal Holdings Inc. will soon allow businesses to accept more than one hundred cryptocurrencies at checkout.
* Roche Holding AG plans to test whether an experimental medicine can prevent Alzheimer’s disease symptoms in high-risk people, its latest investment in one of the most failure-prone areas of drug making.
* Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals Inc. said Monday that it’s owed a $100 million milestone payment from Sarepta Therapeutics Inc. within the next two months, pressuring the beleaguered biotech company just days after it stopped selling its biggest drug due to safety concerns.
* EssilorLuxottica SA posted better-than-expected revenue in the second quarter, as the world’s biggest eyewear maker showed strong gains in Europe and pressed ahead with its smart-glasses initiative.
* Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. announced the names of the two companies resulting from a planned separation of the streaming and studios business from its cable-TV networks.

What Bloomberg Strategists say…
“A European trade deal and new China talks will go a long way to bolster risk sentiment in the days ahead, with the Aug. 1 deadline now largely irrelevant. With some level of framework in place for Europe, China and Japan, investors are gaining more visibility into the contours of global trade — and so far, they’re not particularly worried.”
-Tatiana Darie, Macro Strategist, Markets Live

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.3%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.8%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.8%
* The euro fell 1.3% to $1.1592
* The British pound fell 0.6% to $1.3355
* The Japanese yen fell 0.6% to 148.56 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.6% to $118,128.17
* Ether fell 0.6% to $3,802.22
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.41%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 2.69%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 4.65%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 3% to $67.10 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.6% to $3,317.25 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Do the thing you fear most, and the death of fear is certain. –Mark Twain, 1835-1910.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com