July 25th,2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:  Happy Friday.
St. James the Great Day.
Pilgrimage of St. Anne d’Auray, France.

July 25, 1893: The Panic of 1893 reached its low point, with nearly one-quarter of the nation’s railroads heading into bankruptcy and the directors of the NYSE nearly closing down the exchange.
July 25, 1909: Louis Blériot makes the first aeroplane flight across the English Channel, proving practical aviation is possible.
July 25, 1978:The first baby conceived by in-vitro fertilization was born in Oldham, England.  Go to article  

July 25, 1969: The Seattle Pop Festival is held at Woodinville’s Gold Creek Park. Over three days, 25 musicians and groups perform, including Led Zeppelin, Chuck Berry, The Byrds, Chicago Transit Authority, Bo Diddley, the Doors, Guess Who, Santana, Ike & Tina Turner and the Youngbloods. More than 50,000 fans attend, with tickets $6 a day or $15 for three days. Neighbors complain of traffic and the “hippie atmosphere,” but fans are orderly with a few exceptions. (The next month, Woodstock Festival draws 500,000 music fans to Bethel, N.Y.) (Compiled from HistoryLink.org)

Iman, model/actress, b. 1955.

Earth is starting to spin faster — and scientists are considering doing something unprecedented
Two days this summer have been unusually short, with the shortest expected on Aug. 5, leading global timekeepers to consider adding a negative leap second. Read More.

3,800-year-old burial of tall warrior buried with 4-pronged spearhead unearthed in Azerbaijan
The burial holds a Bronze Age man who stood more than 6 feet, 6 inches tall and may have been a military leader. Read More.

3I/ATLAS is 7 miles wide — the largest interstellar object ever seen — new photos from Vera C. Rubin Observatory reveal
Detailed photos from the newly operational Vera C. Rubin Observatory have revealed that the recently discovered interstellar object 3I/ATLAS is roughly 7 miles wide, making it the largest of its kind ever seen.

Ancient whale ‘graveyard’ discovered under melting Russian glacier
An Arctic expedition found a collection of ancient whale remains where a rapidly retreating glacier once lay.

Artist cancels major Smithsonian exhibition
Amy Sherald, who gained national fame for her official portrait of former first lady Michelle Obama in 2018, was told that the museum had “concerns” about one of her paintings.

New Jersey Little Leaguer cleared to play again
The 12-year-old baseball player faced suspension for what he did last week after hitting a game-winning home run.

Halloween is going to be pricier this year
High cocoa costs are prompting a major confectionery company to hike prices for chocolate candy.

David Beckham documents hilarious haircut mishap
“What have you done?” Victoria Beckham, the soccer star’s wife, asked when she saw it

RIP: Legendary jazz musician Chuck Mangione dies
The noted flugelhorn player, trumpeter and composer became known for his signature tune “Feels So Good,” which spent 25 weeks on the Billboard Hot 100 chart, peaking at #4 in 1978. Throughout his six-decade career in music, Mangione received 14 Grammy nominations and won the award twice. He also made recurring appearances on the Fox animated series “King of the Hill,” where he played a tongue-in-cheek version of himself.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Dover, UK
Holidaymakers and lorry drivers come to a standstill as traffic builds at the border
Photograph: Gareth Fuller/PA

San Diego, US
A man wades past kelp as he goes for a swim in the Pacific Ocean at La Jolla Shores in California
Photograph: Gregory Bull/AP

​​​​​​​Neuf-Brisach, France
An aerial view of an octagonal fortress that forms one of the most extraordinary cities in the world. Constructed in the 17th-century by Sébastien Le Prestre de Vauban, a military architect serving King Louis XIV, the city in Alsace features evenly spaced bastions, perpendicular streets and star-shaped fortifications
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
Market Closes for July 25^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
And thus, without a wing, or service of a keel. –Emily Dickinson, 1830-1886.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.4% at 27,494.35 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 0.9% on July 17 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.2%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.5%.
Tfi International Inc. had the largest increase, rising 5.5%.
Today, 111 of 212 shares rose, while 97 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by information technology stocks.

Insights
* This month, the index rose 2.4%
* So far this week, the index rose 0.7%
* The index advanced 22% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 19% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 26.9% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 on a trailing basis and 17.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.43t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 6.11% compared with 6.24% in the previous session and the average of 6.12% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology | 53.2918| 2.0| 9/1
Financials | 48.3263| 0.5| 19/6
Industrials | 23.9996| 0.7| 24/5
Materials | 11.4083| 0.3| 21/26
Real Estate | 3.4190| 0.7| 10/8
Consumer Discretionary | 1.1541| 0.1| 5/4
Utilities | 0.9006| 0.1| 5/8
Communication Services | -0.3184| 0.0| 3/2
Health Care | -0.4823| -0.7| 1/2
Consumer Staples | -2.0356| -0.2| 5/5
Energy | -17.5958| -0.4| 9/30
Shopify | 34.9200| 2.5| -38.4| 11.5
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 10.1500| 1.5| 7.0| 1.3
RBC | 8.9010| 0.5| 24.9| 4.4
Couche-Tard | -2.9900| -0.7| -34.6| -6.8
Enbridge | -5.4880| -0.6| 37.0| 1.1
Teck Resources | -8.3630| -5.7| 107.6| -22.4
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange raced to fresh record high on Friday even as U.S. President Donald Trump said his administration has not been focused on reaching a trade deal with Canada, with a deadline for an agreement looming, while Rosenberg Research raised concern around overbought market sentiment.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 122.1 points to a record finish of 27,494.25 despite weaker commodity prices, usually a bearish note for the resources-heavy index.
Despite the gains, sectors were mixed.
The biggest gainer was Info Tech, up 1.8%.
The Battery Metals Index was down 1.7% and Base Metals down 1%.
Just a week out from an August 1 trade-agreement deadline, President Trump told reporters Friday morning “We don’t have a deal with Canada”.
In contrast, he was cited in a report from Canada’s CTV News saying he is likely to reach a deal with the European Union and that he had solidified the confines of an accord with China.
“Aug. 1 is going to come, and we will have most of our deals finished, if not all.  We haven’t really had a lot of luck with Canada. I think Canada could be one where they’ll just pay tariffs. It’s not really a negotiation,” Trump said.
The CTV report noted Trump has promised the U.S. will impose a 35% tariff on Canadian goods crossing the border, and those fees could go even higher if Canada further retaliates.
However, it also noted, they’re limited to the minority of goods not covered under the two countries’ existing free trade deal, which Trump signed in his first term and vowed to renegotiate next year.
Canada is also bearing the weight of Trump’s tariffs on steel, aluminum and automobiles, and will be affected by copper duties that are also expected to kick in on Aug. 1, the CTV report added.
Douglas Porter, Chief Economist at BMO Capital Market, in his weekly ‘Talking Points’ note said the 15% base tariff agreed with Japan “likely sets an important benchmark for other major trading partners, and drums home the point that meaningful tariffs are here to stay.”
Porter noted Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney more or less echoed that sentiment by cautioning any deal with the United States may well include some semi-permanent tariffs.
At the same time, Porter also noted, Carney warned the Aug.1 deadline may not hold, and that Canada would not be rushed into a bad deal, while Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Dominic LeBlanc said “a lot of work” still needs to be done.
President Trump, Porter noted, showed just how much “work” by suggesting on Friday that, for Canada, it may just be a tariff, not a negotiation.
“While Canada faces the prospect of a 10 ppt hike in its tariff to 35%, that’s only on the narrow slice of non-USMCA compliant goods, so the bigger issue is the sectoral hits on autos and metals,” Porter said.
Elsewhere, Rosenberg Research in its latest Technical Analysis said a composite of four popular sentiment survey suggests market sentiment is “only now edging into overbought, excessive bullishness, territory”.
It cited the S&P 500 medium term Coppock Curve showing that sentiment momentum has broken out to levels not seen since early 2023.
According to the research, “this breakout implies that sentiment will move higher, and become more overbought, in the weeks immediately ahead”.
Rosenberg Research said if it does, but fails to challenge its 2024 highs, that could create a divergence relative to, at least, the S&P 500’s post-April uptrend and perhaps its longer-term trend. “In turn,” it added, “such divergence could be a factor, along with momentum and seasonality, that adversely affects price.”
Of commodities, gold futures fell for a third day, continuing a retreat from Tuesday’s record high as the dollar strengthens and traders take profits.
Gold for December delivery was last seen down $38.20 to US$3,392.90 per ounce.
Tuesday, the metal posted a record high of US$3,501.80.
Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices fell Friday, giving up early gains that came on optimism U.S. tariff battles are calming, as reports said the Trump Administration will allow higher exports from Venezuela into an already over-supplied market.
WTI crude oil for September delivery closed down $0.87 to settle at US$65.16 per barrel.
September Brent oil was last seen down $0.78 to US$68.40.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street ended the week on a positive note, with stocks hitting fresh all-time highs amid solid earnings and hopes for US trade deals.
After an uneventful meeting between Donald Trump and Jerome Powell, the Treasury market barely budged.
The dollar climbed.
In the run-up to the busiest week for corporate results, the S&P 500 rose for a fifth straight day, approaching 6,400.
While the rally has stoked concerns about inflated prices amid a rush to the riskiest corners and a revival of the meme-stock mania, many traders find it hard to bet against the trend.
A closely watched gauge of equity volatility – the VIX – closed below 15.
“If you are a structurally bearish investor, the recent few weeks must have felt like a century,” said Florian Ielpo at Lombard Odier Investment Managers.
“Not only are most equity indices advancing in what seems like an endless rally, but their valuations now globally surpass those at the start of the year.”
Progress in trade deals, positive economic data and corporate resilience have offset worries that stocks are overheating.
More than 80% of S&P 500 companies have exceeded profit estimates, according to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence. That’s on track for the highest share of beats since 2021.
“The pace of earnings so far this month has been positive, economic data has been hanging in there, and we’re even starting to get some sense of clarity on tariffs,” said Bespoke Investment Group. “You can’t fault investors for being optimistic.”
Next week will also bring the latest jobs report, the Federal Reserve’s rate decision and a deadline for US trade deals.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she will travel to Scotland this weekend to meet with Trump, as the two sides aim to conclude a trade deal ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline.
“The market continues its steady climb as many key investor concerns have failed to materialize,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“While institutional investors who were short on an absolute or relative basis have largely capitulated, positioning still shows little sign of excess.”
This suggests that the market momentum has room to build if macro conditions improve or even stabilize, Hackett noted.
“It’s been a very, very active year for retail and just in the past month, I’d say, has been the craziest month that we’ve seen, so it is the return of meme stock rallying, sharp increases in really small companies picked up by Reddit channels and things like that,” said Sam Nofzinger, Public’s general manager of brokerage.
Meantime, Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s trading desk said its clients are growing “more comfortable” betting against shares of unprofitable technology companies, following a resurgence of meme-stock mania that has sparked wild rallies in a cohort of smaller names.
“With the market pushing to new highs and volatility falling to its lowest levels since February, two of the major challenges facing investors are complacency and the urge to chase the market,” said Daniel Skelly, head of Morgan Stanley’s Wealth Management Market Research & Strategy Team.
The risk of a bubble in stock markets is rising as monetary policy loosens alongside an easing in financial regulation, says Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett.
From a technical standpoint, Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler keeps his bullish view, citing factors such as improving market breadth and many of the popular averages reaching new highs.
Monday kicks off the earnings season’s busiest week, with over 40% of S&P 500 companies reporting results.
Among the highlights will be several mega caps including Apple Inc. Amazon.com Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Meta Platforms Inc.
“We are seeing some divergence in earnings, but for the most part companies are beating expectations and keeping the stock rally going,” said Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management.
“As long as trade policy and tariff headwinds are minor, the market can keep moving higher.”
The world’s investors are enjoying a confidence boost after months of uncertainty as Trump finally started signing trade deals.
Earlier this year, rapidly-shifting tariff policies sent global markets spiraling.
But risk assets have rebounded as investors saw signs of progress in negotiations.
“We’ve already seen a deal with Japan. A deal with the EU is necessary for the equity rally to continue, in our view, but would not be surprised,” said Paul Christopher at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.  “The only surprise would be no deal by Aug. 1.”
To Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management, trade negotiations will ultimately lead to moderate policy.
“We would expect a tariff-led economic slowdown to be mild and short-lived, rather than recessionary,” he said.
Trump also noted he would never back a weak dollar while also touting the economic benefits a low currency would bring, particularly for the country’s manufacturing sector.
While the greenback wrapped out its worst week in July, it’s set for its best month in 2025.
The Fed released a statement Friday thanking Trump and Republican lawmakers for visiting the central bank’s renovation project on Thursday.
During his visit, Trump offered little criticism of the project but urged Fed Chair Powell several times to lower interest rates.
Trump says he had a good meeting with Powell, leading the US president to believe the Fed might cut borrowing costs.
At Pepperstone, Quasar Elizundia says policymakers are expected to hold steady while signaling sensitivity to global trade conditions and softening investment trends.
“The case for leaving policy on hold has been made by several Fed speakers: inflation remains above target, inflation risks still pervade, and the labor market is near full employment,” said Michael Feroli at JPMorgan Chase & Co.
The Fed “should cut rates next week, but we don’t think it will,” said FHN Financial’s Chris Low and his colleagues.
“Instead, watch for Chair Powell to use the press conference to prep markets for a cut in September.”
“While Chair Powell will probably keep his options open for September, we think he will emphasize that recent US inflation and employment data make a case for leaving rates unchanged,” said James Egelhof and Guneet Dhingra at BNP Paribas.
“As we have since December 2024, we expect the policy hold to run past year end.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Intel Corp. sank as Chief Executive Officer Lip-Bu Tan sparked concerns that he was more focused on cost cutting than restoring the chipmaker’s technological edge.
* Microsoft Corp. is investigating whether a leak from its early alert system for cybersecurity companies allowed Chinese hackers to exploit flaws in its SharePoint service before they were patched, according to people familiar with the matter.
* American Airlines Group Inc. finally has taken possession of its first long-range Airbus SE A321XLR aircraft, but the plane will remain in Europe because of a supply chain issue that’s caused a shortage of seats.
* Paramount Global’s merger with Skydance Media was approved by the US Federal Communications Commission.
* Pinnacle Financial Partners Inc. agreed to acquire Synovus Financial Corp. in an all-stock transaction valued at $8.6 billion, combining two sizable players in the US Southeastern market ahead of a potential wave of banking M&A.
* Charter Communications Inc. reported it lost more internet customers than expected during the second quarter amid increased pressure from mobile companies’ 5G and fiber home internet offerings.
* Fuzzy Ugg boots and chunky Hoka running shoes saw big sales gains last quarter, bolstering financial results for parent company Deckers Outdoor Corp.
* Centene Corp. issued fresh annual guidance and laid out a plan to address problems in its Affordable Care Act business, offering investors a ray of hope in a year when insurers across the industry have struggled to cope with rising costs and changing government policies.
* Sarepta Therapeutics Inc. shares plunged after European regulators rejected its gene therapy Elevidys, intensifying scrutiny on the drugmaker after it was pressured to halt shipments of its treatment in the US.
* Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.’s chief medical officer is stepping down from his role after six years at the company, a surprise moves as the drugmaker races to find its next hit to reverse its declining fortunes.
* Eli Lilly & Co. won the backing of European Union regulators for its Alzheimer’s disease drug Kisunla in a specific group of patients, potentially paving the way for it to become the second drug in the region to slow the most common cause of dementia in the elderly.
* Newmont Corp. has made progress getting its costs under control, helping the world’s top gold miner beat expectations on earnings at a time when a rally for the precious metal is underpinning the industry.
* Phillips 66 is maximizing diesel production to take advantage of strong demand and would consider investing in projects that give its refineries greater flexibility to tweak fuel output to match changing consumption patterns.
* Lyft Inc. is partnering with Benteler Group, an Austria-based manufacturer, to deploy autonomous shuttles in the US in late 2026, trying to catch up with rival Uber Technologies Inc. in offering driverless rides.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.1%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.5%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
* The euro was little changed at $1.1743
* The British pound fell 0.5% to $1.3436
* The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 147.63 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.7% to $116,755.58
* Ether fell 2.5% to $3,644.22
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 4.38%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.72%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 4.64%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.5% to $65.05 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.9% to $3,337.87 an ounce

–With assistance from Vildana Hajric.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Action may not always bring happiness; but there is no happiness without action. -Benjamin Disraeli, 1804-1881.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
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www.carolannsteinhoff.com