July 24, 2024, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
July 24, 1847: Pioneer Day, Mormons enter Salt Lake City.
July 24, 1911: American archeologist Hiram Bingham III rediscovers Machu Picchu, Peru.
July 24, 1959 During a visit to the Soviet Union, Vice President Richard M. Nixon and Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev compared the merits of capitalism and communism in the “kitchen debate,” so-named because it took place at a model kitchen at a U.S. exhibition.  Go to article >>

Amelia Earhart, aviatrix, b.1898.
Alexandre Dumas, writer, b. 1802
Jennifer Lopez, singer/actress, b.1970.
Simon Bolivar, south American liberator, b. 1783.
Zelda Fitzgerald, b. 1900

How this ‘off-putting’ color shaded the internet and beyond
Barbie pink was the hot color of 2023. Now, slime green — also known as Brat green — has become the defining color of summer 2024.

Are cold showers good for you?
Cold showers are a popular wellness practice alongside cold plunges or ice baths, but do they work? Experts weigh in on what the research shows.

Snoop Dogg will be one of the final torchbearers at the Paris Olympics
The torch relay is on its way to Paris! American rapper Snoop Dogg will be one of the final torchbearers of the Olympic flame.

Hollywood is energized by Harris
Vice President Kamala Harris has received the support of some major Hollywood stars as she moves to secure the Democratic nomination. Read about the nature of celebrity influence on this year’s historic election.

What you should know about toxic ‘forever chemicals’
Some toxic “forever chemicals” found in pesticides are being used on food, in homes, and even in pet flea treatments, according to a new study. Learn how you can limit your possible exposure.

The best meteor showers of 2024 are yet to come. Here are the key nights to watch for.
Here’s everything you need to know to see the best meteor showers of 2024. Read More.

Lasers reveal Roman-era circus in Spain where 5,000 spectators watched horse-drawn chariot races
Researchers used lidar technology to map Iruña Veleia, a Roman-era city in Spain. Read More.

‘It’s risky for male frogs out there’: Female frog drags and attempts to eat screaming male
Female green and golden bell frogs in Australia will eat their male counterparts when the males’ mating call displeases them. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Bristol, UK
Hot air balloons take off from College Green and Queen Square to mark the countdown to the 46th Bristol International Balloon Fiesta. This year, Europe’s largest hot air balloon festival takes off on Friday 9 August, and will last until Sunday 11 August, with more than 140 hot air balloons ascending into the sky
Photograph: Finnbarr Webster/Getty Images

Tahiti, French Polynesia
The US surfer John John Florence during a training session in Teahupo’o ahead of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games
Photograph: Ben Thouard/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​A herd of giraffes move together during a translocation exercise for wild giraffes in a farm near Eldoret, Kenya
Market Closes for July 24^th, 2024

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1987, the corporate assets of ZZZZ Best Co. were sold at a bankruptcy auction in Los Angeles for $62,000. Less than four months earlier, the carpet-cleaning company run by 21-year-old whiz kid Barry Minkow had a stock-market value of roughly $300 million.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 0.8%, or 174.18 to 22,639.57 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest loss since July 5.
Today, information technology stocks led the market lower, as 8 of 11 sectors lost; 169 of 226 shares fell, while 56 rose.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 5.2%.
Bausch Health Cos. had the largest drop, falling 23.1%.
Insights
* This month, the index rose 3.5%
* The index advanced 10% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.6% below its 52-week high on July 16, 2024 and 21.1% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.9% in the past 5 days and rose 3.6% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.4 on a trailing basis and 15.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.62t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 10.93% compared with 10.61% in the previous session and the average of 11.17% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | -48.5400| -2.6| 0/10
Financials | -47.3755| -0.7| 5/22
Industrials | -40.2528| -1.3| 5/23
Materials | -15.0044| -0.5| 12/40
Energy | -14.4013| -0.4| 6/35
Consumer Discretionary | -10.7585| -1.3| 2/11
Health Care | -5.4063| -7.9| 2/2
Real Estate | -3.2083| -0.6| 3/16
Consumer Staples | 2.4718| 0.2| 9/2
Communication Services | 2.8229| 0.4| 4/1
Utilities | 5.4750| 0.6| 8/7
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -38.0300| -5.2| -11.7| -20.6
Canadian National | -21.4800| -3.3| 139.0| -3.9
Brookfield Corp | -14.8700| -2.3| -43.0| 19.2
BCE | 2.8050| 1.0| -29.1| -12.2
Fortis | 3.2730| 1.7| 77.8| 3.6
Enbridge | 3.7140| 0.5| 9.8| 5.9
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street got a reality check after a disappointing start of the megacap earnings season fueled concern the artificial-intelligence frenzy that has powered the bull market might be overblown.
A selloff in big tech sent the S&P 500 to its worst day since December 2022, ending the best stretch without a 2% drop since the start of the global financial crisis.
Losses were more pronounced in the Nasdaq 100, which tumbled over 3.5%.
Alphabet Inc. slid 5% after sinking more resources into its drive to outmatch rivals in AI, with spending higher than analysts expected.
Tesla Inc.’s profit miss and the Robotaxi delay spurred a 12% stock plunge.
S&P 500 Snaps Longest Streak Without a 2% Decline Since 2007 “Investors are finally waking up to all that AI spend and realizing it is much more of an expense right now rather than a revenue generator,” said Peter Boockvar at The Boock Report.
Wednesday’s session was another lesson in the “concentration risk” bears see as latent in a market whose upside has owed disproportionately to a narrow cohort of massive gainers.
For a fourth straight session — and the 10th time in 11 days — the performance of smaller companies exceeded larger ones, evidence investor tastes have shifted from the megacap tech names that have come to dominate benchmark indexes.
The Treasury curve steepened on bets the Federal Reserve is close to cutting rates. Former New York Fed President William Dudley called for lower borrowing costs — preferably at next week’s gathering.
For many analysts, such a move would be worrisome as it would indicate officials rushing to avoid a recession.
The loonie fell as the Bank of Canada cut rates, focused on “downside risks.”
The yen hit the highest since May amid an unwind in carry trades.
Goldman’s Top Stock Analyst Is Waiting for AI Bubble to Burst To Steve Clayton at Hargreaves Lansdown, this could be the year markets start talking about the “So-So Seven,” noting that results from Tesla and Alphabet are not enough to maintain their momentum.
“The market is not impressed with the start of earnings season for the mega tech stocks,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB. “There was a lot resting on these results and we don’t think that they give clear answers to questions about the effectiveness and profit potential for AI right now.”
After driving the rally in stocks for most of 2024, big tech slammed into a wall.
Traders rotated from megacaps to lagging parts of the market, spurred by bets on Fed rate cuts and concern AI still needs to pay off.
“Tech’s problem isn’t just that earnings are less than perfect, but the group is still caught up in the violent rotation trade that kicked off with the June CPI,” said Vital Knowledge’s Adam Crisafulli.
“Many assumed the anti-tech rotation would be ephemeral and the fact it’s proving durable is compounding anxiety toward the group and spurring additional selling pressure.”
The drubbing in these stocks has seen some of the air come out of valuations.
While that’s something that could argue in favor of dip buying, the earnings season is just getting started.
Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp., Amazon.com Inc. and Meta Platforms Inc. are all due to report results next week.
To Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers, the equity correction is far from over.
“Yesterday we wrote that a 10% to 15% correction was in the cards this quarter, historically the worst period of the year,” Torres said. “This quarter, the valuation concerns are paired with front-loaded gains, irrational exuberance, a high bar for earnings estimates and a presidential election.”
But as far as quarterly results, the concern is not exclusively related to tech.
Broadly, second-quarter earnings season is off to a weaker start than usual.
Among S&P 500 companies that reported results, profits beat analyst estimates by the smallest margin since the end of 2022 — while sales surprises were the worst in at least two years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“We are still looking for volatility to increase moving through the second half of 2024 – with the potential for a 10% to 15% correction in benchmarks like the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100,” said Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott.
“Our work does not point to secular/structural downturn at this time, but rather a pause in the reflationary expansion cycle that began a few years ago.”
Just as earnings roll in, a key technical indicator in the US stock market sat close to historic extremes — a crucial gauge that has foretold past selloffs.
Known as the “the 200-DMA” — an abbreviation of 200-day moving average — the gauge measures how the S&P 500 is performing against that longer-term measure.
At one point last week, the benchmark was trading as much as 15% above it, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
While the gap has since narrowed since last week — to 9% through Wednesday’s close — that kind of gulf above 12% still preceded declines for the index in 2011, 2018 and 2021.
Although that does not necessarily mean the market is about to tank, it is a warning sign for investors concerned about lofty tech valuations and concentration risk.
The recent slump in US stocks is flashing a warning to trend-following funds: sell US equities no matter which direction the market goes.
Both the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 benchmarks have breached thresholds that trigger a selling signal for commodity trading advisers, or CTAs, according to models at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s trading desk.
If stocks keep falling, those rules-based traders could unwind $32.9 billion of global stocks with $7.9 billion flowing out of the US market, according to an analysis from the bank’s trading desk. Even if the market reverses its slide, CTAs are still poised to sell $902 million of US stocks.

Corporate Highlights:
* International Business Machines Corp. reported a jump in bookings for its artificial intelligence business as customers work to implement the latest technology.
* Ford Motor Co. posted second-quarter profit that fell short of Wall Street estimates, saying quality problems with new vehicles led to a surge in warranty costs.
* Bank of America Corp. said its board authorized another $25 billion stock repurchase program.
* Whirlpool Corp., the owner of Maytag, lowered its full-year earnings forecast, as consumers continued to shy away from big-ticket appliance purchases amid a weakening housing market.
* Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.’s limited-time offers and speedy service helped the burrito seller bring in more customers in the second quarter, defying a broad-based demand pullback in the restaurant industry.
* ServiceNow Inc. reported better-than-expected sales and bookings, suggesting customer enthusiasm for the software company’s expanding suite of tools.

Key events this week:
* Germany IFO business climate, Thursday
* US GDP, initial jobless claims, durable goods, Thursday
* US personal income, PCE, consumer sentiment, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 2.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 3.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.25%
* The MSCI World Index fell 1.8%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 5.9%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 2.1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro fell 0.1% to $1.0839
* The British pound was little changed at $1.2905
* The Japanese yen rose 1% to 153.98 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.1% to $65,934.43
* Ether fell 3.2% to $3,372.06
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.28%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.44%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.16%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.6% to $77.45 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.5% to $2,398.57 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Jessica Menton, Lu Wang, Felice Maranz, Sagarika Jaisinghani, Joel Leon, Natalia Kniazhevich, Tatiana Darie and Alex Nicholson.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Ever tried.  Ever failed.  No matter.
Try again.  Fail again.  Fail better.  –Samuel Beckett, 1906-1989.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com