July 17th, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.
On this day in 1861, the first U.S. paper money payable on demand, whose color gives America’s bills the nickname “greenbacks,” was issued by the US government.
July 17, 1918: Czar Nicholas II and his family are executed.
July 17, 1950: Julious Rosenberg is arrested on suspicion of espionage.
July 17, 1955: Disneyland opened in Anaheim, Calif.  Go to article

Erotic mosaic stolen in World War II returned to Pompeii
The spicy piece may have once decorated a bedroom floor in a Roman villa.

Medals for Winter Olympics unveiled
The medals were designed to represent both Olympic and Paralympic values.

‘Smurfs’ are back on the big screen
The latest film about the little blue animated creatures will feature a star-studded cast of voices.

Scientists discover long-lost giant rivers that flowed across Antarctica up to 80 million years ago
Large flat surfaces carved by ancient rivers deep beneath East Antarctica are influencing how ice flows across the continent today, according to a new study. Read More.

‘Ice cube’ clouds discovered at the galaxy’s center shouldn’t exist — and they hint at a recent black hole explosion
Twin orbs of superhot plasma at the Milky Way’s center known as the “Fermi bubbles” contain inexplicable clouds of cold hydrogen, new research reveals. They could help scientists figure out when our galaxy’s black hole last erupted. Read More.

from The Late  Night Shows:
“As of now, Trump is keeping the information totally classified, a.k.a. in the bathroom at Mar-a-Lago,” Jimmy Fallon said of the so-called Epstein files.

“Yeah, the excuses are getting worse and worse. Today, Trump was, like, ‘A dog ate the Epstein files, then people in Ohio ate the dog.’” — JIMMY FALLON.

“Yeah, they’re burning the MAGA hats. People in China were like, ‘Oh, come on, we worked so hard making them.’” — JIMMY FALLON

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Malé, Maldives
Construction work continues at the Thilamalé Bridge project, which aims to link the capital with the islands of Villingili, Gulhifalhu, and Thilafushi
Photograph: Mohamed Afrah/AFP/Getty Images

Tokyo, Japan
An image of a nebula is reflected on a window at Shibuya Sky, an observation deck in the Shibuya district. The light production Inner Nebulas runs until September
Photograph: Kazuhiro Nogi/AFP/Getty Images

Tower Bridge, London
‘Mind the gap – sailing under Tower Bridge just as it is opening.’
Photograph: Joanna Rimmer
Market Closes for July 17^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
In the end, all business operations can be reduced to three words: people, product, and profits. -Lee Iacocca, 1924-2019.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.9%, or 233.96 to 27,386.93 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1% on May 2.
Today, information technology stocks led the market higher, as 8 of 11 sectors gained; 119 of 213 shares rose, while 92 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 6.2%. Energy Fuels Inc/Canada had the largest increase, rising 11.4%.

Insights
* So far this week, the index rose 1.3%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended May 16
* The index advanced 20% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 26.4% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.1% in the past 5 days and rose 3.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 on a trailing basis and 17.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.39t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 6.26% compared with 5.84% in the previous session and the average of 6.13% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology | 101.1218| 3.8| 8/1
Financials | 90.6641| 1.0| 19/6
Consumer Staples | 26.0712| 2.6| 5/5
Energy | 14.5800| 0.3| 27/13
Consumer Discretionary | 12.7477| 1.4| 8/1
Industrials | 2.4301| 0.1| 16/13
Real Estate | 0.6220| 0.1| 6/12
Health Care | 0.0618| 0.1| 2/1
Utilities | -0.3762| 0.0| 7/8
Communication Services | -3.1100| -0.5| 2/3
Materials | -10.8472| -0.3| 19/29
Shopify | 85.9000| 6.2| 35.6| 13.9
Brookfield Corp | 36.5900| 4.1| 45.9| 13.4
Couche-Tard | 30.8600| 8.3| 359.6| -7.2
Fairfax Financial | -4.9620| -1.4| -3.4| 20.7
Enbridge | -5.0280| -0.5| -10.7| 0.9
Barrick Mining | -5.2880| -1.5| 14.3| 28.3
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange moved higher Thursday afternoon, closing at a fresh record even as trade-war woes continue after U.S. President Donald Trump said he aims to put tariffs of 10% or 15% on over 150 countries.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 233.37 points at 27,386.34, topping the previous high, set Monday, of 27,198.85.
Most sectors were up, with Information Technology and Financials the biggest gainers, rising 7.6% and 5.9%, respectively, while Telecoms was the biggest decliner on the day, down 0.7%.
Scotiabank economists, including Jean-Francois Perrault, said recent data and fiscal announcements in both Canada and the United States suggest slightly stronger economic growth than previously expected, although both economies are still projected to expand below their potential due to trade uncertainty.
They added that inflation pressures are likely to prevent central banks from cutting rates, so Scotiabank is maintaining its view that both the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve will hold off on rate changes for the rest of the year.
“Our forecast does not reflect recent trade pronouncements in the U.S. We will wait until policies take effect before reflecting those in our forecasts.
There is simply too much uncertainty about the way forward on trade to build those into our forecasts now,” the economists said.
In Canada, growth appears more resilient than anticipated.
Job creation was strong in June and existing home sales have been rising, suggesting some recovery in the housing market.
“This is not to say the economy is strong, it remains weak across a broad range of indicators, but on balance, the economy is less weak than we had earlier assumed,” they said.
Trade talks remain a key factor in the outlook, but the latest threat to raise tariffs on non-CUSMA exports to the United States from 25% to 35% would likely have only a limited overall impact on the Canadian economy if implemented, they added.
In the US, while trade-related risks remain unresolved, fiscal policy from the recent “One Big Beautiful” budgetary law offers some stimulus.
However, this poses challenges for inflation management and fiscal sustainability.
Political tensions around Federal Reserve Chair Powell add to financial market uncertainty.
“For the moment, the US economy is weakening less rapidly, and equity markets have been stronger than expected, as is the case in Canada.
We have revised up our forecasts for growth modestly this year and next, with growth of around 1.5 per cent this year and next now expected.
The outlook continues to reflect negative impacts of tariffs and policy uncertainty, which, as noted above, could lead to downward revisions to growth once there is more clarity about the policy environment,” the economists said.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose on Thursday, pushed up by tightening supply and haven buying on renewed Middle East violence.
WTI oil for August delivery closed US$1.16 to settle at US$67.54 per barrel, while September Brent oil was last seen up $0.80 to US$69.32.
Gold traded lower on Thursday as the dollar moved up after U.S. retail sales rose above expectations last month.
Gold for August delivery was last seen down US$16.30 to US$3.342.80 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Signs that the world’s largest economy is holding up lifted stocks a day after speculation about the fate of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell rattled markets.
The dollar climbed.
Short-dated bonds fell.
The crypto industry got a major win after Congress passed the stablecoin bill.
Economically sensitive shares outperformed after solid retail sales and a drop in jobless claims, with the S&P 500 briefly topping 6,300 and closing at an all-time high.
The Russell 2000 gauge of small firms rose 1.2%.
Tech rallied as a bullish outlook from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. bolstered confidence in artificial-intelligence spending.
In late hours, Netflix Inc. reported strong earnings and raised its forecast.
After a brief pause, the greenback resumed its advance for July – which is set to be its best month in 2025.
Treasury two- year yields rose while those on 30-year bonds were little changed.
Money markets continued to price fewer than two Fed rate cuts this year.
US retail sales saw a broad advance in June, tempering concerns about a retrenchment in consumer spending.
Meantime, applications for US unemployment benefits declined for a fifth straight week to the lowest since mid-April, showing a resilient job market.
“As long as the economy continues to expand and unemployment remains low, then people will continue to spend and the flywheel can keep generating higher profits, which is the engine for higher stock prices,” said Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management.
To Jamie Cox at Harris Financial Group, consumers seem to be over the tariff shock in April and are back at it with spending.
“Now we just need to see if the Federal Reserve has enough inflation data to communicate more clearly that September will restart the rate cutting cycle,” he said.
“The consumer came back to life in June. Other data like initial jobless claims and Philly Fed also painted the picture of a strong economy,” said David Russell at TradeStation.
“While it’s good for growth overall, it makes it harder to justify rate cuts.”
Fed Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said it’s reasonable for policymakers to plan on two rate cuts this year, emphasizing that the central bank should not wait too long before moving.
Meantime, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said officials should keep holding rates steady “for some time,” citing accelerating inflation as tariffs start to boost prices.
The value of retail purchases, not adjusted for inflation, increased 0.6% in June after declines in the prior two months.
Meantime, the control-group sales — which feed into the government’s calculation of goods spending for gross domestic product — rose 0.5%, rounding out the first half of the year on a strong note.
To Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research, while retail sales beat estimates, enthusiasm ought to be tempered somewhat given the pick-up in consumer goods prices over the month.
At Bloomberg Economics, Estelle Ou says that given price increases in several goods categories, it’s difficult to untangle whether most of the rebound is due to price increases or solid underlying demand.
She thinks the former is more likely, given low business sentiment and signs of weakness in other discretionary services spending.
“A reassuring retail sales result comes at the perfect time as earnings season kicks into gear,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
“In the last earnings go-around, management reassured investors that consumer trends were solid through April and May.
However, there was a worry that consumer spending was beginning to weaken after back-to-back declines in retail sales.”
If earnings are more upbeat than expected and if management continues to tell a reassuring story about consumer spending, stocks could react favorably — even after a rally to record highs that some investors may view as overextended, Kenwell noted.
“If tariffs start to weigh on consumer spending in the months ahead, that could present risks in the second half of the year,” he said.
“For now, though, consumers are still spending — and stocks can continue to rally, particularly if earnings reflect continued underlying strength in America’s largest engine: the consumer.”
Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson says he sees a bull market building in stocks.
But first the S&P 500 may drop 5% to 10% this quarter as the impact of trade policies gets reflected on corporate balance sheets.
He thinks the decline will be short lived, giving investors an attractive entry point to a rally driven by improving earnings expectations.
Relative calm prevailed a day after markets were jolted by speculation over Powell’s future before President Donald Trump downplayed the prospect of replacing him.
Still, George Saravelos at Deutsche Bank AG says concern about the Fed chairman being removed will continue to linger over markets and put pressure on the dollar and Treasuries until it is resolved.
Saravelos said this month that, if Trump were to force Powell out, the subsequent 24 hours would probably see a drop of at least 3% to 4% in the trade-weighted dollar, as well as a 30 to 40 basis point fixed-income selloff.
The idea that the Fed operates free from political pressures is a “myth” and US stocks are likely to keep soaring on bets that rate cuts are coming, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Ilan Benhamou.
Kevin Warsh, a candidate to be the next Fed chair, said independence for the central bank is “essential.”
But, he added, the Fed under Powell has strayed into policy areas where it lacks authority.
“History tells us that the independent operations in the conduct of monetary policy are essential,” Warsh said Thursday in an interview on CNBC.
“But that doesn’t mean the Fed is independent in everything else it does.”

Corporate Highlights:
* United Airlines Holdings Inc. said the second half of the year has become more predictable and suggested it may be able to beat its earnings targets.
* International growth helped buoy PepsiCo Inc.’s second quarter earnings, as the snacks and beverage giant said it plans to lean into higher-protein offerings and smaller portion sizes.
* Amazon.com Inc. is cutting jobs in its cloud-computing division, the latest big tech company to pare its headcount amid rising costs for artificial intelligence.
* T. Rowe Price Group Inc. is making a business-wide round of job cuts as the Baltimore-based asset manager grapples with outflows and other pressures.
* General Electric Co. boosted its full-year financial guidance and topped Wall Street’s profit estimates for the second quarter after rebounding demand in the aviation market softened the impact of a global trade war.
* Chevron Corp. is on the cusp of reaching a production plateau in the largest US oil field, allowing it to reap billions of dollars of additional cash flow in the next few years.
* Meta Platforms Inc. investors say they have reached a settlement with current and former directors at the company to end a multibillion-dollar case in Delaware.
* Uber Technologies Inc. is teaming up with electric vehicle maker Lucid Group Inc. and self-driving tech startup Nuro Inc. to launch a robotaxi fleet.
* Waymo is more than doubling its service territory in Austin as the driverless taxi firm looks to fend off competition from Tesla Inc.
* U.S. Bancorp reported net interest income that missed estimates in the first earnings report under new Chief Executive Officer Gunjan Kedia.
* ManpowerGroup Inc. posted quarterly profit and revenue that beat estimates and indicated the global labor market is stabilizing.
* Elevance Health Inc. cut its profit guidance for the year on higher medical costs in Affordable Care Act plans and lagging reimbursement from Medicaid, the latest in a series of disappointments from health insurers in recent months.
* Roblox Corp. is adding new safety features, including an age- estimation tool that relies on video selfies, to better protect its kid-heavy user base.
* Abbott Laboratories shares sank after the company lowered the top end of its full-year guidance.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.6%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.3%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
* The euro fell 0.4% to $1.1598
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3417
* The Japanese yen fell 0.5% to 148.59 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.8% to $119,038.4
* Ether rose 1% to $3,414.9
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.46%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.67%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.66%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 3.91%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries was little changed at 5.01%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.9% to $67.61 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.2% to $3,339.90 an ounce

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
People won’t have time for you if you’re always angry or complaining.-Stephen Hawking, 1942-2018.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
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www.carolannsteinhoff.com