July 17, 2024, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
July 17, 1918:Czar Nicholas II and his family, are executed.
July 17, 1955: Disneyland opens its doors for the first time in Anaheim, Calif. Go to article >>

July’s full ‘Buck Moon’ rises this week — and signals a big lunar transition is on the way
July’s full moon — also known as the Buck Moon, the Thunder Moon and the Hay Moon — will be at its fullest on the night of July 21. It’s the last “regular” full moon before a parade of four consecutive “supermoons”
light up the sky. Read More.

Venus of Brassempouy: The 23,000-year-old ivory carving found in the Pope’s Grotto
The palm-sized carving depicts a Neolithic woman wearing an ornate headpiece. Read More.

‘Dark comets’ may be a much bigger threat to Earth than we thought, new study warns
A strange class of space rock known as a “dark comet” has qualities of both asteroids and comets — and the hard-to-spot objects may pose a larger threat to Earth than we thought, according to new research. Read More.

Secret of why Greenland sharks live so incredibly long finally revealed
Surprising new research has revealed why the world’s longest-living vertebrate, the Greenland shark, has such a lengthy lifespan. The findings could have big implications for the species’ future. Read More.

Razor-thin crystalline film ‘built atom-by-atom’ gets electrons moving 7 times faster than in semiconductors
Scientists observed record-breaking electron mobility — seven times higher than in conventional semiconductors — with a material made from the same elements as quartz and gold. Read More.

NASA transmits a Missy Elliott song to Venus
Aiming to serenade the aliens, NASA? It remains unclear why the space agency chose to transmit another song into space — just the second time after they sent a song by The Beatles in 2008.

Drake shows video of flooded mansion
The Canadian rapper shared a video of him wading through what appears to be his waterlogged Toronto mansion after the city was hit by a torrential rainstorm and flooding.

Futuristic designs unveiled for ‘world’s greenest highway’
A Dubai-based company has released conceptual designs for a solar-powered “green” highway that it says could offer more sustainable mobility for the city in the future.

90 giant African snails ‘intercepted’ at Detroit Metropolitan Airport
Authorities were shell-shocked when they discovered dozens of slimy gastropods in a passenger’s bag.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Eindhoven, Netherlands
Spectators enjoy a game of robot football during a practice day in the run-up to the World Cup for Robots: RoboCup 2024. Universities and technology companies from all over the world come to the competition to show what their robots can do in various disciplines
Photograph: Hollandse Hoogte/REX/Shutterstock

The Forest of the Monarchs – grand prize winner
What looks like sunlit foliage on trees are actually millions of monarch butterflies. The only species that migrates to avoid North America’s winter, they fly up to 3,000 miles south to Mexico’s warm and humid Sierra Madre mountains. The butterflies cluster on oyamel fir trees, cozying up to generate warmth and conserve energy as temperatures dip.
Photograph: Jaime Rojo/BigPicture: Natural World Photography Competition/California Academy of Sciences

Stardust Forest – art of nature winner
Fireflies hold particular cultural significance in Japan, where their emergence marks the changing of the seasons and is thought to be a manifestation of the souls of dead soldiers. The floating light trails captured in this photo from Yamagata, Honshu island, were mostly created by male fireflies, which hover and emit frequent bursts of light when courting mates.
Photograph: Kazuaki Koseki/BigPicture: Natural World Photography Competition/California Academy of Sciences
Market Closes for July 17^th, 2024

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1995: The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 6.56 points to close at 1005.89, its first finish above the 1000 barrier.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.6% at 22,851.17 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.8% on July 5 and follows the previous session’s increase of 1.1%.
Today, information technology stocks led the market lower, as 9 of 11 sectors lost; 148 of 226 shares fell, while 75 rose.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 6.9%.
Celestica Inc. had the largest drop, falling 10.1%.
Insights
* The index advanced 13% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 22% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.6% below its 52-week high on July 16, 2024 and 22.3% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.2% in the past 5 days and rose 5.9% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.5 on a trailing basis and 15.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.65t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 11.10% compared with 11.02% in the previous session and the average of 11.01% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | -70.2429| -3.7| 0/10
Materials | -40.4310| -1.4| 13/39
Industrials | -19.8268| -0.6| 3/25
Energy | -16.3947| -0.4| 10/29
Consumer Staples | -3.5060| -0.4| 6/4
Utilities | -2.4623| -0.3| 6/9
Consumer Discretionary | -0.8732| -0.1| 7/6
Financials | -0.6913| 0.0| 9/18
Health Care | -0.1858| -0.3| 2/2
Real Estate | 2.2205| 0.5| 14/6
Communication Services | 8.1761| 1.2| 5/0
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -55.8700| -6.9| 26.7| -14.0
Cameco | -15.7600| -7.4| 16.6| 13.8
Brookfield Corp | -8.2870| -1.3| -50.6| 20.3
Suncor | 6.0210| 1.3| -31.6| 25.3
Nutrien | 6.4630| 2.7| 72.6| -4.3
RBC | 21.9500| 1.5| 40.5| 14.4
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The world’s largest technology companies got hammered as concern about tighter US restrictions on chip sales to China spurred a selloff in the industry that has led the bull market in stocks.
From the US to Europe and Asia, chipmakers came under heavy pressure. American powerhouses Nvidia Corp., Advanced Micro Devices Inc. and Broadcom Inc. drove a closely watched semiconductor gauge down almost 7% — the most since 2020.
Across the Atlantic, ASML Holding NV tumbled over 10% even after the Dutch giant reported strong orders.
A plunge in Tokyo Electron Ltd. led the Nikkei 225 Stock Average lower.
Wednesday’s action reprised a recent trend in which capitalization-weighted indexes underperformed the average stock, a consequence of weakness in the mega-caps that dominate them.
With firms such as Apple Inc. and Microsoft Corp. each making up 7% of the S&P 500, losses are hard to offset even when most of the index’s constituents are up — as they were today.
The Biden administration told allies it’s considering severe curbs if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML keep giving China access to advanced semiconductor technology.
The US is also weighing more sanctions on specific Chinese chip firms linked to Huawei Technologies Co.
“This news on the chip front is the kind of UFO (UnForeseen Occurrence) that could indeed create the kind of selling that could be the catalyst for a tradable correction in the stock market,” said Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co. “Broad indices have become very overbought.”
The S&P 500 fell 1.4%.
The Nasdaq 100 had its worst day since 2022.
A gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” giant companies slipped 3.4%.
The Russell 2000 of small firms dropped 1.1%.
Wall Street’s “fear gauge” — the VIX — hit the highest since early May.
In late hours, United Airlines Holdings Inc. sank on a bearish outlook.
A pair of chipmakers defied the selloff: Intel Corp. and Globalfoundries Inc.
And the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed for a sixth straight day — notching another record.
Financial shares outperformed, with U.S. Bancorp surging on solid results.
The bond market saw small moves.
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book showed slight economic growth and cooling inflation.
The most-notable speaker on Wednesday was Governor Christopher Waller, who said the Fed is getting “closer” to cutting rates, but is not there yet.
The yen led gains in major currencies, up almost 1.5%.
The Biden administration is in a tenuous position.
US companies feel that restrictions on exports to China have unfairly punished them and are pushing for changes.
Allies, meanwhile, see little reason to alter their policies when the presidential election is just a few months away.
“Normally, the impact of these types of headlines isn’t long-lasting, but in this case, we would note that semis have been underperforming the broader market for the last couple of weeks now,” said Bespoke Investment Group strategists. “So that’s something to watch.”
The tech underperformance is coming after a first half which saw mega-caps like Nvidia, Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc. propel the market higher, stretching valuations for these names and leaving them with a tougher setup for the rest of 2024.
Can the market keep powering ahead without tech?
“Much of this year’s equity gains have come from a handful of names currently under direct threat from the political arena,” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers. “An important question is if the rest of the market, which generally lacks thrilling tales on a relative basis, can offset the waning momentum in ‘Magnificent Seven’ stocks.”
At Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Scott Rubner says “I am not buying the dip.”
The tactical strategist bets the S&P 500 has nowhere to go from here but down.
That’s because this Wednesday, July 17, has historically marked a turning point for returns on the equity benchmark, he said, citing data going back to 1928.
And what follows, he says, is August — typically the worst month for outflows from passive equity and mutual funds.
Jonathan Krinsky at BTIG says the market is “nearing the end of the typical bullish window.”
Sentiment remains extremely complacent on the surveys and transactional indicators, he noted.
“While the rotation out of mega-cap tech into cyclicals and small-caps is encouraging, it felt a bit forced happening in
such a short period of time,” Krinsky said. “Even if this is going to be a more long-lasting rotation, we likely won’t be able to see that new leadership until after we see a higher correlation correction and then see what leads coming out of that.”

Corporate Highlights:
* Tesla Inc. forming an autonomous taxi platform will be the catalyst for a roughly 10-fold increase in its share price, Ark Investment Management LLC’s Cathie Wood said, echoing years of bullish predictions about a business the carmaker has yet to stand up.
* Amazon.com Inc.’s marketing portal for merchants crashed Tuesday night, according to multiple Amazon sellers and consultants, fouling up one of the online retailer’s biggest sales of the year.
* Morgan Stanley became the latest big Wall Street bank to tap the US investment-grade market Wednesday after reporting earnings, as strong investor demand helps lenders borrow at lower yields than would have been possible at the start of the month.

Key events this week:
* ECB rate decision, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing, Conference Board LEI, Thursday
* Fed’s Mary Daly, Lorie Logan and Michelle Bowman speak, Thursday
* Fed’s John Williams, Raphael Bostic speak, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.4% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 2.9%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.9%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.3% to $1.0936
* The British pound rose 0.3% to $1.3008
* The Japanese yen rose 1.4% to 156.19 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.1% to $64,610.01
* Ether fell 0.7% to $3,416.9
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.15%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.42%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.08%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.6% to $82.89 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.4% to $2,457.97 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Cecile Gutscher and Sujata Rao.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Hardships often prepare ordinary people for an extraordinary destiny. –C.S. Lewis, 1898-1963.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com