July 16th, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
July 16, 1945: Atomic bomb tested.
July 16, 1969: Apollo 11 blasted off from Cape Kennedy on the first manned mission to the moon. Go to article.

July 16, 1934: Commuter service by seaplane begins from Oyster Bay, Long Island, to Pier II at the foot of Wall Street.

Joshua Reynolds, artist, b.1723.
Roald Amundson, explorer, b. 1872.
Ginger Rogers, dancer/actress, b. 1911.
Will Ferrell, actor, b. 1967.

Man smashes case holding Scotland’s Stone of Destiny
The suspect, who is from Australia, has been charged with “malicious mischief.”

Archaeologists unearth giant shoes near Hadrian’s Wall
The ancient shoes are calling into question what we know about Roman soldiers. 

When a chance encounter on vacation becomes a lifelong adventure
A 23-year-old librarian said she felt a “thunderbolt” when she first locked eyes with a tall, handsome yacht captain while on vacation. 

‘I was floored by the data’: Psilocybin shows anti-aging properties in early study.

The psychedelic psilocybin, found in magic mushrooms, slows certain hallmarks of aging in human cells and older mice, a lab study suggests. Read More.

4,000-year-old human rib discovered high in the Pyrenees still has an arrowhead from a brutal attack
A human rib discovered high in the Pyrenees suggests that someone survived a shot in the back several millennia ago. Read More.

‘Interstellar visitor’ 3I/ATLAS could be the oldest comet ever seen — and could grow a spectacular tail later this year
New simulations have narrowed down where the newly discovered interstellar comet 3I/ATLAS likely came from, revealing it could be more than 3 billion years older than the solar system. Read More.

Penny-sized laser could help driverless cars see the world so much clearer
Researchers have created an ultrasensitive laser the size of a penny that could improve lidar technology, boosting autonomous vehicles in the process. Read More.

Giant space ‘boulders’ unleashed by NASA’s DART mission aren’t behaving as expected, revealing hidden risks of deflecting asteroids
Debris released from the asteroid Dimorphos during NASA’s DART mission has a higher momentum and less random distribution than expected, which “changes the physics we need to consider when planning these types of missions,” researchers say. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Toulouse, France
The peloton cycles past the Place du Capitole during the 11th stage of the 112th edition of the Tour de France
Photograph: Loïc Venance/AFP/Getty Images

Near Whitby, North Yorkshire‘
This field of phacelia (grown as a soil stabiliser) provided one of the many colours of summer in the Yorkshire countryside.’
Photograph: Ian Maggiore

Flamborough, East Riding of Yorkshire
‘I went early to North Landing hoping to catch a sunrise. It was a bit bland until the early morning sun lit up the chalk cliffs. I placed the boats against the light for the view.’
Photograph: David Eberlin
Market Closes for July 16^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
A company cannot look only at turnover and profits.  There is something called reputation, and that is worth just as much as and maybe even more –
than the numbers. -Guiseppe Lavazza, b. 1965.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.4% at 27,152.97 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.5%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.0%.
Denison Mines Corp. had the largest increase, rising 8.6%.
Today, 98 of 213 shares rose, while 113 fell; 5 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.

Insights
* The index advanced 18% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 11% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.3% below its 52-week high on July 15, 2025 and 25.4% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.7% in the past 5 days and rose 2.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.5 on a trailing basis and 17.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.38t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 5.84% compared with 5.95% in the previous session and the average of 6.13% over the past month

Index Points
Information Technology | 65.0500| 2.5| 8/2
Consumer Staples | 6.4732| 0.7| 9/1
Consumer Discretionary | 5.4301| 0.6| 5/4
Communication Services | 1.8964| 0.3| 3/2
Health Care | -0.0638| -0.1| 1/2
Real Estate | -0.2396| 0.0| 8/10
Utilities | -0.2799| 0.0| 9/6
Industrials | -7.0714| -0.2| 17/12
Materials | -22.7428| -0.6| 10/38
Energy | -28.1105| -0.7| 9/30
Volume VS Shopify | 53.3000| 4.0| 16.7| 7.3
Brookfield Corp | 31.5700| 3.6| -22.2| 9.0
RBC | 12.6500| 0.7| 29.6| 4.2
Suncor | -4.6330| -1.0| -47.4| 4.4
Nutrien | -7.4730| -2.7| 4.7| 24.4
Canadian Natural Resources | -9.3690| -1.5| -37.9| -4.6
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange rose nearly 100 points as Canada reportedly looks to implement new measures to support its steel industry in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade disputes.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 98.83 points to close at 27,152.97.
Information Technology and Financial were the biggest gainers, rising 4.4% and 4.2%, respectively, while Energy was bottom of the list, down 2.9%.
RBC economist Rachel Battaglia, in her insight report about Canada’s job market, said that recent trade tensions have made existing weaknesses in Canada’s labor market worse.
After briefly improving in late 2024 and early 2025, the unemployment rate is rising again, while job vacancies continue to fall.
Although June showed a small improvement from May, it’s unlikely the jobless rate has peaked yet, she added. This trend isn’t new.
Unemployment has been increasing for nearly three years, however, the factors behind today’s job market are quite different.
After the pandemic, unemployment mostly reflected challenges new workers, like recent graduates and newcomers, faced in finding jobs.
Now, while permanent layoffs haven’t jumped much compared to a year ago, people are taking longer to find work.
There are also clearer signs of job losses in industries that depend on international trade, Battaglia said.
“Manufacturing, primary resources, transportation and warehousing, and certain services outside of public administration1 have borne the brunt of recent
employment declines. Uncertainty surrounding US trade policy appears to be driving much of the weakness, but other factors like fluctuating commodity prices and a slowdown in homebuilding are likely intensifying these challenges,” she said.
Economic uncertainty is pushing some retirees back into the job market, as unstable stock markets are causing financial stress, especially for those on fixed incomes.
This trend is reflected in the recent rise in job searches by people aged 55 and older who had recently retired, the report added.
Jason Daw, head of North American rates strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said, “Canada has demonstrated surprising economic resilience” with job and housing markets stabilizing after earlier weakness tied to tariff risks.
Fiscal support is also expected to continue.
With core inflation staying close to 3%, RBC believes the Bank of Canada has likely ended its rate cuts at 2.75%.
In the United States, ongoing trade uncertainty, a surprisingly steady job market, and a cautious Federal Reserve have led RBC to push its forecast for the first interest rate cut to December, with rates gradually falling to 3% by mid-2026, he added.
While neither central bank is expected to change rates in the near term, future Fed cuts could lead to a wider interest rate gap between Canada and the US in the coming months, Daw said.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil dropped for a third session on Wednesday, even as a report showed U.S. inventories fell last week.
WTI crude oil for August delivery closed down US$0.14 to settle at US$65.38 per barrel, while September Brent crude was last seen down US$0.02 to US$68.69.
Gold traded higher late afternoon on Wednesday as the dollar fell after a report showed U.S. wholesale prices remained steady last month.
Gold for August delivery was last seen up US$18.10 to US$3,354.80 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Speculation about the fate of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell set off a short-lived tempest in financial markets Wednesday, with volatility mostly quelled after President Donald Trump said he has no plans to fire the central bank chief and was only discussing it in “concept.”
The S&P 500 bounced as Trump said he is “not planning on doing anything” to remove Powell, after a White House official said the president was likely to seek the Fed Chair’s ouster soon.
Treasury two-year yields, which are more sensitive to imminent Fed moves, slid five basis points to 3.89%.
The dollar halted a four-day advance.
Softer-than-estimated inflation data also helped fuel the moves on Wednesday, reinforcing bets on Fed rate cuts in 2025.
Anyone hoping to discern from today’s market action how investors would treat Powell’s firing have a litany of moving parts to consider.
While the initial reaction was relatively modest, traders may have simply cast the episode as the latest political theater.
Framed as rhetorical pressure than an imminent rupture in Fed leadership, the trading action may therefore provide a poor proxy for how Wall Street would react if Trump actually removed Powell — a prospect that strategists warn would rattle global markets.
“After the president’s subsequent backing off on remarks to remove Powell, the immediate crisis may have passed, though we doubt we are entirely done with this saga,” said Michael Feroli at JPMorgan Chase & Co.
To Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management, a decision to fire the Fed chief would negatively impact markets as concerns around central bank independence would be at “the forefront of investors’ minds.”
The president’s remarks in the Oval Office left open the possibility of ousting Powell for cause.
Trump and his allies have lambasted the Fed chair over the central bank’s decision to hold interest rates steady and the cost of the central bank’s renovations of its Washington headquarters.
“The decision to fire Powell would have to make its way through the courts because he can only be fired for cause, and they have to determine if the cost overruns on the new Fed building are grounds for that,” he added.
“And now that Trump says he’s ‘not planning’ to fire Powell we have to wonder if the first story was a trial balloon to see how markets would react,” said Steve Sosnick at Interactive Brokers.
At Academy Securities, Peter Tchir said that he’s been arguing that Trump has been emboldened after a series of “wins” – which might encourage him on this.
“But possibly more importantly, would be a sign that tariff policy is going to be more aggressive than market current thinks,” Tchir added.
Read: What Firing Powell Would Cost the US Economy To Dominic Pappalardo at Morningstar Wealth, the biggest outcome of the public criticism from Trump of Powell and ongoing threats of removing him is the possibility of erosion of the Fed’s credibility.
“Markets are unlikely to look kindly on attempts to forcibly remove Chair Powell from office and threaten Fed independence,” said TD Securities strategists including Oscar Munoz and Gennadiy Goldberg.
They view such an action as a low-probability, but high- impact event.
“We would expect markets to price in higher long-run inflation, higher term premium, more near-term Fed rate cuts (and hence lower front-end rates), increased market volatility, and a steeper yield curve,” they added.
The yield gap between 5- and 30-year Treasuries hit the highest since 2021.
President Trump has repeatedly assailed Fed chair Powell as the central bank has held off on cutting rates amid concern that tariffs may spur inflation.
And in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested Powell should step down from the central bank’s board when his term as chair is up in May 2026.
The Fed’s continued independence is “absolutely critical,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said on a conference call Tuesday.
That just doesn’t mean under Powell, whom Dimon said he respects, but also for whomever eventually succeeds him.
Meddling with the Fed “can often have adverse consequences,” Dimon said.
A Trump’s dismissal of Powell would be an underpriced risk that could trigger a selloff in the dollar and Treasuries, Deutsche Bank AG’s George Saravelos recently said.
If Trump were to force Powell out, the subsequent 24 hours would probably see a drop of at least 3% to 4% in the trade- weighted dollar, as well as a 30 to 40 basis point fixed-income selloff, Saravelos said.
The greenback and bonds would carry a “persistent” risk premium, he said, adding that investors may also grow anxious about the potential politicization of the Fed’s swap lines with other central banks.
“Investors would likely interpret such an event as a direct affront to Fed independence, putting the central bank under extreme institutional duress,” Saravelos said.
“With the Fed sitting at the pinnacle of the global dollar monetary system, it is also stating the obvious that the consequences would reverberate far beyond US borders.”
Meantime, US economic activity “increased slightly” between late May and early July, the Fed said in its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts.
The report also said that “uncertainty remained elevated, contributing to ongoing caution by businesses.”
“Overall business activity was up in the last month, but the outlook was slightly more pessimistic,” said Jeff Roach at LPL Financial.
“We should be watchful for signs of margin compression at the business level, financial stress via rising delinquency rates, and a sluggish housing market as inventories rise.”
Earlier Wednesday, data showed the producer price index was unchanged from a month earlier, after an upwardly revised 0.3% gain in May.
US wholesale prices rose 2.3% from a year earlier, the least since September.
“Disinflation remains, but the Fed will be undeterred in keeping rates steady until September,” said Jamie Cox at Harris Financial Group.
“As long as the labor market remains strong and resilient, rates aren’t likely to move meaningfully lower.”
Money markets project a 56% chance of a cut in September, with the next reduction fully priced in by the October meeting.

Corporate Highlights:
* Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s stock traders posted the largest revenue haul in Wall Street history, as volatility sparked by the Trump administration’s trade war spurred a second straight record quarter for the unit.
* Morgan Stanley’s stock traders scored their best second quarter on record as the biggest US banks continue to reap the benefits of market volatility tied to President Donald Trump’s policy moves.
* Bank of America Corp.’s traders posted a record second quarter as the company reaped the benefits of volatile markets and net interest income topped analysts’ estimates.
* PNC Financial Services Group beat expectations for second- quarter net interest income, helped by an increase in loan growth.
** The bank is considering charging financial-technology companies for access to valuable customer data, following the lead of JPMorgan Chase & Co., Chief Executive Officer Bill Demchak said.
* ASML Holding NV Chief Executive Officer Christophe Fouquet walked back his forecast that sales will grow next year, blaming trade disputes and global tensions.
* Tesla Inc. is preparing to launch a longer, six-seat version of its Model Y sport utility vehicle in China, where the carmaker has been losing ground to domestic manufacturers with fresher lineups.
* Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence startup, xAI, is in discussions to lease data center capacity in Saudi Arabia, according to people familiar with the matter, part of an effort to expand its infrastructure in regions offering cheap energy and political goodwill.
* Nvidia Corp. boss Jensen Huang anticipates getting the first batch of US licenses to export H20 AI chips to China soon, formally allowing the company to resume sales of a much sought- after component to the world’s top semiconductor arena.
* Alphabet Inc.’s Google will debut new Pixel-branded hardware at an event on Aug. 20 in New York, with the lineup expected to include several smartphones and a smartwatch, all powered by the company’s artificial intelligence technology.
* Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co. is creating a new strategy committee and agreed to work with Elliott Investment Management on ways to help the software company boost value.
* Johnson & Johnson beat Wall Street’s quarterly sales expectations and raised its full-year outlook, a show of confidence as the pharmaceutical industry faces the dual threats of tariffs and a crackdown on drug pricing.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.2%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.3%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.1%
* Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index fell 0.4%
* KBW Bank Index rose 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.3% to $1.1635
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.3416
* The Japanese yen rose 0.7% to 147.87 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.4% to $119,181.06
* Ether rose 11% to $3,378.09
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.45%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.69%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 4.64%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 3.89%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries declined one basis point to 5.01%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.3% to $66.71 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.7% to $3,347.94 an ounce

–With assistance from Denitsa Tsekova and Isabelle Lee.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
It is not the mountain we conquer but ourselves. –Sir Edmund Hillary, 1919-2008.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com