July 15, 2022 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

July 15, 2006: Co-founders Jack Dorsey, Evan Williams, and Biz Stone publicly launch their online microblogging service Twitter, and within the following decade it had more than 300 million users.
July 15, 2010: BP stopped the flow of oil into the Gulf of Mexico after 85 days using a 75-ton cap lowered onto the well earlier in the week. Go to article »

Mohammed bin Salman’s $500 billion Saudi Arabia desert dream just keeps getting weirder.

Interpreting those amazing NASA James Webb Space Telescope images via the aesthetic lens of art history. (h/t Elaine He)

See the world’s best new architecture:  Which of these stunning structures do you think will win the prestigious World Building of the Year title? 

11 of the world’s most dangerous hiking trails:  Proceed with caution… these challenging trails are not for the faint-hearted.

Hidden ancient Roman ‘Bridge of Nero’ emerges from the Tiber during severe drought:  A severe drought in Italy has revealed an archaeological treasure in Rome: a bridge reportedly built by the Roman emperor Nero that is usually submerged under the waters of the Tiber River.   The dropping water levels of the Tiber, which according to Reuters is flowing at multi-year lows, have exposed the stone remains of the Pons Neronianus (Latin for the Bridge of Nero), WION news, a news agency headquartered in New Delhi, India, reported.  Full Story: Live Science (7/15) 
 
1.2 billion-year-old groundwater is some of the oldest on Earth:  Groundwater that was recently discovered deep underground in a mine in South Africa is estimated to be 1.2 billion years old. Researchers suspect that the groundwater is some of the oldest on the planet, and its chemical interactions with the surrounding rock could offer new insights about energy production and storage in Earth’s crust.  In fact, Oliver Warr, a research associate in the department of Earth sciences at the University of Toronto in Canada and lead author of a new study about the groundwater discovery, described the location in a statement as a “Pandora’s box of helium-and-hydrogen-producing power.”  Full Story: Live Science (7/15) 

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

A giant biodegradable land art painting entitled Vers l’equilibre (Towards balance) by French-Swiss artist Saype is pictured near the summit of the Grand Chamossaire mountain
CREDIT: Valentin Flauraud/AP

Cabezudos (big heads) stand on balconies on the final day of the San Fermín festival
CREDIT: Miguel Riopa/AFP/Getty Images

A man looks on as a wild forest fire rages in Morocco’s northern region
CREDIT: Fadel Senna/AFP/Getty Images

Market Closes for July 15^th, 2022

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1916, William Boeing, a Yale-educated aeronautical engineer, incorporated Pacific Aero Products in Seattle with $100,000 in capital; he kept 998 of the original 1,000 shares of stock for himself. In 1917 he renamed his firm the Boeing Airplane. Boeing later makes jet travel an accepted part of everyday life.
Canada
By Ana Paula Barreto Pereira
(Bloomberg) — Canadian equities rallied Friday, buoyed by bank and energy stocks.
The gain followed yesterday’s broad selloff in financials.
The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.4% to 18,394.45.
The move was the biggest since a gain of 1.8% on July 7 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 1.5%.
Brookfield Asset Management Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.8%.
Methanex Corp. had the largest percentage increase, rising 5.4%.
Today, 147 of 238 shares rose, while 89 fell; 5 of 11 sectors were higher. 
Insights
* So far this week, the index fell 3.3%
* The index declined 8.9% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 17.2% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 1.2% above its low on July 14, 2022
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.3 on a trailing basis and 11.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$2.94t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 19.02% compared with 18.98% in the previous session and the average of 19.82% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
* Financials | 35.3231| 0.6| 24/5
* Energy | 30.5611| 0.9| 37/1
* Industrials | 11.4847| 0.5| 22/7
* Information Technology | 4.9528| 0.5| 12/2
* Consumer Discretionary | 4.8100| 0.8| 9/4
* Real Estate | -0.6309| -0.1| 9/12
* Materials | -2.9288| -0.1| 21/30
* Communication Services | -3.5547| -0.4| 2/5
* Health Care | -3.5841| -4.6| 0/7
* Utilities | -5.2299| -0.5| 8/8
* Consumer Staples | -5.8165| -0.7| 3/8
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
* Brookfield Asset Management | 16.0100| 2.8| -14.9| -23.7
* TD Bank | 9.0250| 0.9| -29.6| -18.7
* Bank of Nova Scotia| 5.8930| 1.0| -24.1| -19.1
* BCE | -3.2620| -0.8| -22.9| -3.5
* Barrick Gold | -3.3110| -1.3| -33.9| -15.2
* Royal Bank of Canada | -5.9560| -0.5| 43.8| -11.6
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The stock market snapped back at the end of a dizzying week as traders reduced their wagers on a bigger Federal Reserve hike in July, while parsing a raft of Wall Street earnings and hoping for signs of capitulation that could set the stage for a more sustained recovery.
American equities halted a five-day slide, with the expiration of about $1.9 trillion in options.
Banks led gains after Citigroup Inc.’s blowout results.
Swaps are pricing in nearly 75 basis points of Fed tightening this month — still an aggressive boost that leaves investors wondering about the odds of a recession, but down from a full-point bet earlier this week.
The dollar and bond yields fell.
Economic readings were all over the place, but it was a drop in US consumer long-term inflation expectations to a one-year low that effectively captured traders’ attention.
The reason is that it may provide some solace to policy makers that price pressures aren’t becoming entrenched.
Another reason for hope is that two Fed officials didn’t sound too keen on a full-point hike in July.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic voiced wariness about a super-sized increase, and St. Louis’s James Bullard said he would defer judgment to the central bank’s meeting.
He was quoted earlier this week as saying he favored sticking with a 75-basis-point boost.
“While a recession is increasingly likely, bulls note that a lot of bad news is already being priced in, and if a recession is shallow, there is upside to markets over the next year,” said Mark Hackett, chief of investment research at Nationwide. “The path to get there may not be pleasant, but if earnings can hold up, there is reason for cautious optimism.”

Odds are now close to even that the US will slip into a recession within the next year.
The probability of a downturn over the next 12 months stands at 47.5%, up sharply from 30% odds in June, according to the latest Bloomberg monthly survey of economists.
US stocks could see more declines as the risk of a hard economic contraction and a stronger dollar rises in the second half of the year, according to Bank of America Corp. strategists.
Equity markets could see “proper capitulation” if second-quarter earnings are worse than expected, Michael Hartnett wrote.
“The markets today reflect a slowdown or a mild recession already,” said Kara Murphy, chief investment officer at Kestra Holdings. “As soon as we have confirmation that the Fed is winning the war with inflation — that means we need to see multiple data points suggesting that prices are slowing – I think that will be a risk-on sign for the market.”
In other corporate news, Wells Fargo & Co. said it will continue to do share repurchases, but it’ll be “prudent,” even as its peers JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup have both announced plans to pause buybacks.
UnitedHealth Group Inc.’s results were lifted by lower costs of care that portend well for other health insurers.
Bullish positioning on the US dollar has surged to its highest level in seven years while investors have amped up their bearishness on the euro and turned against emerging-market currencies, according to a BofA survey of fund managers.
Elsewhere, oil clawed back some of its weekly losses.
Wheat futures erased their gains for the year in Chicago, as prospects for weaker demand offset supply worries that were exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.9% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.8%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.1%
* The MSCI World index rose 1.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.5%
* The euro rose 0.6% to $1.0083
* The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.1868
* The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 138.52 per dollar
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 2.92%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 1.13%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.09%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.8% to $97.55 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 0.1% to $1,703.60 an ounce
–With assistance from Sunil Jagtiani, Cecile Gutscher, Robert Brand, John Viljoen, Edward Bolingbroke, Isabelle Lee and Emily Graffeo.
Have wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann

The illiterate of the 21^st century will not be those who cannot read and writer, but those who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn. –Alvin Toffler, 1928-2006.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com