July 11th, 2023 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

July 11, 1804: A duel between two leading American politicians claims the life of one.  United States Vice President Aaron Burr and former Secretary of the Treasury Alexander Hamilton ended a life-long feud with a duel.  Hamilton was fatally wounded and died the next day.

On July 11, 1979, the abandoned United States space station Skylab made a spectacular return to Earth, burning up in the atmosphere and showering debris over the
Indian Ocean and Australia.  Go to article >>

John Constable, artist, b. 1776.
E.B. White, writer, b. 1899.

The tastiest hotels around the world.  These 20 hotels feature a Michelin-starred restaurant on their property. Yes, this means you can walk to your room after an epic culinary feast.

Satellite captures the shiniest exoplanet ever discovered.  Some astronomers say this exoplanet’s metallic clouds make it look like a large “mirror” in the universe.

Scientists discover huge, heat-emitting blob on the far side of the moon
The most likely cause of the warm blob is a rock that is very rare outside of Earth. Read More.

Metal detectorists find buried WWII aircraft in Ukraine while disarming wartime bomb
The aircraft were sent to the Soviet Union in 1941 to help the Allied war effort, but they were dumped to avoid payment. Read More

James Webb telescope discovers the oldest active black hole in the known universe
Astronomers have discovered a feeding supermassive black hole from when the universe was less than 600 million years old. Read More.

Harvard scientist claims ‘anomalous’ metal spheres pulled from the ocean could be alien technology. Others are not convinced.
Avi Loeb thinks that more than 50 tiny, metal spheres pulled from the Pacific Ocean might be the work of intelligent aliens. Read More.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Litli-Hrútur, Iceland:  People watch flowing lava during a volcanic eruption Photograph: Kristinn Magnusson/AFP/Getty Images

Yukon, Canada: The Little Blue River wildfire rages approximately 25 miles (40km) south of Yukon. The number of forest fires continues to rise in Canada, climbing on 7 July to more than 670 blazes, more than 380 of them out of control.  Photograph: BC Wildfire Service/AFP/Getty Images

Huddersfield, England: Aina the mother sheep, a 4.5-metre musical sculpture installed outside Huddersfield railway station as part of Artichoke’s latest project, Herd. She is one of 23 giant handcrafted musical sheep that will appear all over Kirklees this week before joining Aina for a grand finale in Huddersfield on 16 July.  Photograph: Christopher Thomond/The Guardian.
Market Closes for July 11^th, 2023

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1864, the U.S. dollar hit an all-time low. This happened as Confe
derate Lt. Gen. Jubal A. Early defeated Union Maj. Gen. Lew Wallace and marched toward the outskirts of Washington, D.C. Alarmed at the bad news from the battlefield, traders in New York were willing to pay only 0.3509 gold dollars for a single greenback
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.3% at 19,878.56 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1.2% on June 30 and follows the previous session’s little change.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.7%.
TransAlta Renewables Inc. had the largest increase, rising 18.5%.
Today, 138 of 229 shares rose, while 84 fell; 5 of 11 sectors were higher, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* The index advanced 5.6% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 15% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 4.6% below its 52-week high on Feb. 2, 2023 and 11.2% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 1.6% in the past 5 days and was little changed in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.9 on a trailing basis and 13.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.4% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.14t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 10.97% compared with 11.48% in the previous session and the average of 11.38% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | 31.0033| 0.9| 33/5
Financials | 16.0279| 0.3| 22/5
Information Technology | 15.2259| 1.0| 10/1
Materials | 4.2866| 0.2| 19/29
Real Estate | 2.1617| 0.4| 15/6
Health Care | -0.0364| -0.1| 3/1
Communication Services | -1.0632| -0.1| 3/2
Utilities | -1.4540| -0.2| 7/9
Consumer Discretionary | -1.8119| -0.2| 8/7
Consumer Staples | -3.3034| -0.4| 2/9
Industrials | -4.9215| -0.2| 16/10
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 11.8300| 1.7| -14.6| 77.8
Canadian Natural Resources | 7.9000| 1.4| 10.5| 0.3
RBC | 5.5450| 0.5| 91.9| -1.1
Dollarama | -3.2940| -1.9| -22.2| 8.1
Canadian National | -3.8370| -0.6| -30.3| -4.9
Intact Financial | -4.1310| -1.7| 91.3| -0.4
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The stock market finished higher before a report that’s expected to show a slowdown in inflation, which will help shape the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s next steps.
In the run-up to the consumer price index, the S&P 500 extended its advance beyond the 4,400 mark while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added almost 1%.
Energy producers led gains as West Texas Intermediate oil topped its key 100-day moving average.
Activision Blizzard Inc. surged 10% as Microsoft Corp. won a US court’s OK to proceed with its $69 billion takeover deal.
A survey conducted by 22V Research shows that 65% of respondents believe the core CPI — which excludes volatile food and energy prices — will be lower than consensus.
In addition, 54% of the investors polled expect the report to be “risk-on.”
“If economic data keeps tilting towards a soft landing, the markets are increasingly likely to price in that outcome, with investors reallocating to risk assets,” said Jason Draho, head of asset allocation Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management.
A June CPI that’s in-line with expectations would be another step in that direction, he added.
Forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg expect the year-over-year rate of increase in core inflation moderating to 5%, according to the median estimate.
But the slowdown will possibly not be enough to prevent additional policy tightening, with Fed officials widely expected to resume interest-rate increases later this month.
“A quarter-point hike on July 26 is a forgone conclusion at this point, and Wednesday’s CPI release will be more relevant to the September/November debate,” said Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets.
After surging by a four-decade high in June 2022, CPI has pulled back steadily in the face of the Fed’s monetary policy onslaught.
That slowdown has given support to the stock-market’s surge this year, and bulls have strong precedent for their enthusiasm.
Since the 1950s, inflation peaks have almost always been followed by double-digit equity gains, according to data compiled by the Leuthold Group.
The S&P 500 has gained more than 20% since it bottomed out in October, placing it up about 15% since the peak CPI data was released last year.
Following the inflation data, traders will shift gears to the second-quarter earnings season, with JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. reporting their numbers Friday.
In 2023, gains in the S&P 500 have been more concentrated among its largest stocks than in any six-month period since the turn of the millennium, resulting in expensive valuations for the index’s biggest names.
That means the earnings season, along with policy cues are poised to “make or break the case” for those premiums to hold, said Gina Martin Adams, chief equity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence.
Strong equity performance this year has created a dilemma for investors who are underweight equities, according to UBS’s Draho.
“They can stay cautiously positioned, which can be painful absent a recession,” Draho noted. “The alternative is to increase equity allocations, but at the risk of getting whipsawed if a recession has only been delayed not averted.”
Elsewhere, oil rose amid indications that Russian crude production is dropping, signaling the market’s supply glut may be coming to an end.
Adding to bullish sentiment is news that China will take more steps to revive its economy with additional stimulus.
Key events this week:
* Canada rate decision, Wednesday
* Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks, Wednesday
* US CPI, Wednesday
* Federal Reserve issues Beige Book, Wednesday
* Fed speakers include Neel Kashkari, Loretta Mester, Raphael Bostic, Wednesday
* China trade, Thursday
* Eurozone industrial production, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, PPI, Thursday
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* US banks kick off earnings, Friday
​​​​​​​
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.9%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.9%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro was little changed at $1.1006
* The British pound rose 0.5% to $1.2931
* The Japanese yen rose 0.7% to 140.39 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.6% to $30,595.88
* Ether fell 0.9% to $1,875.46
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 3.98%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 2.65%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.66%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.6% to $74.88 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 0.3% to $1,937.50 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Jason Scott, Tassia Sipahutar, Robert Brand, Vildana Hajric, Carly Wanna and Isabelle Lee.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Genius is nothing but a great aptitude for patience. –George-Louis de Buffon, 1707-1788.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com