July 08,2025,Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
July 8^th, 1497: Portuguese navigator Vasco da Gama sets sail, becoming the first European to reach India by se and opening a direct spice route that reshapes global trade.
July 8, 1889: The Wall Street Journal was first published.  Go to article.

John D. Rockefeller, financier, b. 1839
Angelica Huston, actress, b. 1951.
Anna Quindlen, writer, b. 1953.

Earth is going to spin much faster over the next few months — so fast that several days are going to get shorter
Differences in the gravitational pull between Earth and the Moon will make July 9, July 22 and Aug. 5 unusually short. Read More.

Melting glaciers could trigger volcanic eruptions around the globe, study finds
Glacial melt could increase volcanic activity in North America, New Zealand and Russia, spewing greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Read More.

‘Ash-winged dawn goddess’ is oldest pterosaur ever discovered in North America — and it was small enough to sit ‘on your shoulder’
A cache of Triassic fossils in Arizona has revealed Eotephradactylus mcintireae, or “ash-winged dawn goddess,” the oldest pterosaur ever discovered in North America. Read More.

Scientists burned, poked and sliced their way through new robotic skin that can ‘feel everything’
New, gelatin-based material could let robots feel everything from a light poke to a deep cut. Read More.

Avoid the crowds
Costco’s priciest membership plan, which costs $130 per year, just launched a new perk.

Promising or pointless?
Turns out there’s a trick to bringing a full bottle of water through an airport security checkpoint — and it’s TSA-approved.

So many stars
The 2026 Hollywood Walk of Fame honorees have been revealed.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Long summer days on Hampstead Heath in London
Photograph: Sarah M Lee/The Guardian

One of the four lynx that were illegally released into the Cairngorms National Park, Scotland, in January and rescued by the Royal Zoological Society of Scotland. The three lynx that survived the ordeal have settled in to their new homes at the nearby Highland Wildlife Park, where this picture was taken. They have been named Caledonia, Cardrona and Bluebell, following a competition involving school children and charity donors
Photograph: RZSS/PA

A gannet carrying nesting material takes flight at Bempton Cliffs in Bridlington, East Yorkshire, UK
Photograph: Adam Vaughan/EPA
Market Closes for July 8^th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
Inflation is the modern way hat governments default on their debt. –Mike Epstein, 1947-2009.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 0.4%, or 116.71 to 26,903.57 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.6% on June 25.
Today, materials stocks led the market lower, as 6 of 11 sectors lost; 106 of 213 shares fell, while 103 rose.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.4%.
SSR Mining Inc. had the largest drop, falling 8.7%.

Insights
* The index advanced 22% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.7% below its 52-week high on July 7, 2025, and 24.2% above its low on Aug. 6, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 1.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.4 on a trailing basis and 17.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.36t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 5.79% compared with 5.89% in the previous session and the average of 6.38% over the past month

Index Points
Materials | -129.8302| -3.5| 10/37
Information Technology| -47.7740| -1.8| 4/6
Financials | -7.1591| -0.1| 7/17
Utilities | -1.9782| -0.2| 6/8
Real Estate | -0.6520| -0.1| 5/14
Health Care | -0.3847| -0.6| 2/1
Consumer Staples | 2.6138| 0.3| 7/2
Consumer Discretionary| 4.5371| 0.5| 6/3
Communication Services| 10.3438| 1.7| 4/1
Industrials | 20.1901| 0.6| 17/12
Energy | 33.3906| 0.8| 35/5
Shopify | -45.4600| -3.4| 14.5| 0.7
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | -27.7900| -4.7| 15.0| 41.4
Wheaton Precious Metals | -24.9600| -6.2| 48.3| 46.6
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 11.1200| 1.6| -33.3| 6.2
Canadian National | 11.4400| 2.1| -16.0| -1.6
Suncor | 12.3500| 2.8| -31.7| 3.5
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed lower for a second day on Tuesday, falling back below the 27,000 mark as investors take profits following Friday’s record close.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 116.71 points to 26,903.57, again dropping off Friday’s record close of 27,036.16.
Energy and Industrials were the biggest gainers, rising 5.3% and 2.8%, respectively.
Decliners were led by Information Technology, which dropped 3.3%.
Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC Capital Markets, said in a podcast the investment bank agrees with President Trump that the United States may need lower interest rates to sustain full employment, especially as tailwinds like strong consumer spending and immigration fade.
He added that while cuts may be needed later, the Federal Reserve is in a wait-and-see mode due to low unemployment and lingering inflation risks, including the unknown impact of new tariffs.
Shenfeld also said that unlike the United States, Canada is not at full employment “and there’s a greater urgency then that if the economy needs interest rate relief, we should be providing it somewhat sooner”.
He added that labor market softness in Canada appears to be spreading beyond trade-sensitive sectors, according to more detailed payroll data, raising concerns about underlying weakness.
Taylor Schleich, Director, Economics and Strategy at National Bank Financial, and analyst Noah Black said in a Tuesday note the Bank of Canada has cut interest rates by 2.25 percentage points since starting its easing cycle in June 2024.
But despite this, longer-term borrowing costs, like 10-year bond yields, have barely moved.
This “paltry” pass-through means the impact of rate cuts on the broader economy has been limited.
They added that muted pass-through of rate cuts is not just a Canadian issue, bond yields have been rising globally, partly due to concerns over growing fiscal pressures and anxieties.
Canada has fared better than some countries, like the U.K.
“However, relative fiscal strength should not distract from the fact that deficits and debt loads are rising in Canada too.
That isn’t conducive to absolute yield relief, leaving governments, businesses and consumers facing higher borrowing costs than they otherwise might,” the note said.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed higher for a third-straight session on Tuesday as the market weighs the impact of higher supply after OPEC+ over the weekend decided to boost production more than expected next month.
WTI crude oil for August delivery closed up US$0.40 to settle at US$68.33 per barrel, while September Brent crude was last seen up US$0.77 to US$70.35.
Gold traded lower late afternoon on Tuesday as U.S. President Donald Trump renewed tariff threats against the country’s trading partners while again delaying imposing the levies, while the dollar and yields rose.
Gold for August delivery was last seen down US$30.10 to US$3.312.70 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks failed to gain traction near all-time highs, with Donald Trump saying the August deadline for the start of reciprocal tariffs won’t be extended, despite hopes he’s open to trade talks.
Copper surged as the US president called for a 50% tariff.
Treasuries fell.
Following a torrid run from April lows, the S&P 500 barely budged as traders remained on guard for headline risk.
Copper producer Freeport-McMoRan Inc. rallied.
A gauge of drugmakers whipsawed as Trump indicated he could offer pharmaceutical manufacturers at least a year before applying a 200% tariff on foreign-made products.
In mega caps, Tesla Inc. climbed while Amazon.com Inc. fell at the start of its Prime Day sales event.
As Treasuries slipped, 30-year yields approached 5%, following a rout in longer-dated Japanese bonds and German bunds.
A $58 billion US sale of three-year notes drew soft demand.
That was the first in a trio of auctions this week.
The dollar wavered.
Trump signaled a renewed determination to push ahead with his plans to heavily tax foreign imports.
He also told reporters that despite progress with the European Union on a trade deal, frustration over the bloc’s taxes and fines targeting US technology firms could result in him unilaterally declaring a new tariff rate within the next two days.
“Trade-war headlines are regaining momentum, but that doesn’t mean we’re in for a repeat of late March and early April,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
“If there is confidence that negotiations will continue or deadlines will be extended, markets may continue to shake off the headlines.”
However, Kenwell noted that if investors feel the trade situation could become “more bite than bark,” we could very well see another pullback in stocks.
“Unless the situation really unravels, a 5% to 10% pullback will likely be viewed as a buying opportunity by retail investors,” he noted.
“While tariffs will likely remain high — compared with levels at the start of the year — as will the headline risk, we think the US effective tariff rate should end the year at around 15%,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“This would be a headwind to growth but not enough to trigger a recession.”
She continues to recommend phasing into global equities or diversified portfolios to navigate volatility ahead.
Investors should look to reload on hedges ahead of the Aug. 1 tariff deadline as US equity indexes are near record highs with geopolitical risk premium largely dissipated, JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists led by Bram Kaplan wrote.
While top-down drivers such as macro growth forecasts being slightly up point to solid S&P 500 earnings growth for the second quarter, Deutsche Bank AG strategists led by Binky Chadha expect the idiosyncratic effects of tariffs to reduce profits.
Meantime, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists raised their outlook for US stocks for the second time in two months, saying they expect the Federal Reserve to act sooner to cut rates.
The team led by David Kostin lifted their 12-month forecast for the S&P 500 to 6,900 from 6,500 and increased the year-end target to 6,600 from 6,100.
They also cited lower Treasury yields and strength in the largest US companies as reasons to power stocks.
Bank of America Corp. strategists also boosted their outlook for US equities, citing Corporate America’s ability to maintain earnings guidance.
Strategists including Savita Subramanian and Jill Carey Hall raised their year-end target for the S&P 500 to 6,300 from 5,600 and established a 12-month target of 6,600.
“We believe the setup for equity markets looks bullish, even in light of renewed trade-war jitters,” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler.
“While equities may come under some near-term pressure, investors are increasingly becoming numb to the tariff headlines and instead focusing on the trendlines.”
Johnson says technically, measures of market breadth and trends remain constructive, and the weight of the technical evidence supports his bullish outlook as earnings season approaches.

Corporate Highlights:
* Amazon.com Inc.’s Prime Day sales fell almost 14% in the first four hours of the event compared with the start of last year’s sale, according to Momentum Commerce, which manages 50 brands in a variety of product categories.
* Boeing Co. said it delivered 60 aircraft in June, its best showing in 18 months that reflects improvements in its factories and the resumption of US jet exports to China.
* HSBC is turning cautious on three of the biggest US bank stocks following a record rally that’s brought the group within shouting distance of an all-time high.
* President Donald Trump called for new rules that would restrict access to tax incentives for solar and wind projects that already had been pared back by his $3.4 trillion budget bill designed to end green energy incentives.
* SpaceX is discussing plans to raise money and sell insider shares in a deal that would value Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite maker around $400 billion, people familiar with the matter said.
* Ciena Corp. was cut to underweight from equal weight citing at Morgan Stanley, which cited a lack of margin upside in the near term.
* Hershey Co. appointed Kirk Tanner to be the chocolate maker’s next president and chief executive officer.
* Walt Disney Co. and Hearst Corp. are considering a sale of their A+E Global Media joint venture, which includes cable-TV channels such as History and Lifetime, according to a person familiar with the discussions.
* Robinhood Markets Inc. Chief Executive Officer Vlad Tenev said the firm is in talks with regulators over its offering of tokenized equities in Europe, after the launch drew rebuke from companies including OpenAI.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 was little changed as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 was little changed
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%
* The MSCI World Index was little changed
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index fell 0.1%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.7%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro rose 0.1% to $1.1723
* The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.3588
* The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 146.64 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.8% to $108,786.78
* Ether rose 3% to $2,611.36
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.41%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.69%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 4.63%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries was little changed at 3.90%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.93%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.6% to $68.33 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1% to $3,302.59 an ounce
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Everything requires discipline, hard work and dedication, and most importantly, self-belief. –Serena Williams, b. 1981.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com