January 6,2023 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:

Carolann is away from the office today, I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

On this day, 1994 Figure skater Nancy Kerrigan was clubbed on the right leg in an assault planned by the ex-husband of her rival, Tonya Harding. Go to article » 

All 32 teams in the NFL are set for their final scheduled regular-season games this weekend, but many players across the league are contemplating an emotional return to the field in the wake of Damar Hamlin’s mid-game cardiac arrest. On Thursday, doctors said the 24-year-old Buffalo Bills player is awake in a Cincinnati hospital, is neurologically sound and is moving his hands and feet — news that has elicited relief from supporters nationwide after he collapsed on the field Monday. Several players across the league are cheering on Hamlin’s improvement, but many are still understandably shaken up and unsure if they’re ready to play this weekend. On Thursday, the NFL canceled the Bills vs. Bengals game, meaning both teams will head into the playoffs having played one fewer game than other teams in the American Football Conference. League officials are expected to meet today with all NFL teams to discuss a proposal for playoff options amid such unforeseen circumstances.

Quarry workers make ‘unexpected’ discovery of ship from Queen Elizabeth I’s reign
Much of the wooden hull of a rare Elizabethan-era ship has been found in a flooded quarry in southeast England, hundreds of yards from the nearest coast.

Few vessels from this time have survived, so an analysis of the find may shed new light on a key period in seafaring, when the country rapidly expanded its trading links throughout Europe through its control of the English Channel.
Full Story: Live Science
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Kalofer, Bulgaria
The traditional Horo dance is performed in the wintry waters of the Tundzha River during Epiphany Day celebrations. An Orthodox priest throws a cross in the river and it is believed that the person who retrieves it will be healthy throughout the year
Photograph: Nikolay Doychinov/AFP/Getty Images

Madrid, Spain
An acrobat appears to be suspended by floating balloons during a performance of the Three Kings Epiphany parade
Photograph: Pierre-Philippe Marcou/AFP/Getty Images

Harbin, China
People walk on blocks of ice on the frozen Songhua river
Photograph: Héctor Retamal/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for January 6^th, 2023

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:

On this day in 1981, Joe Granville issued an advisory to his 11,000 paying subscribers: “Sell Everything!” The next day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 4.2% on then-record volume. The call—and the subsequent market selloff over the following year—cemented his reputation as a market guru. But the acclaim didn’t last: by 1987, his followers had lost 98% of their money as a result of his advice.

Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 1.6% at 19,814.51 in Toronto. The move was the biggest since rising 3.3% on Nov.
10 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.4%.
Today, energy stocks led the market higher, as all sectors gained; 204 of 236 shares rose, while 32 fell.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.8%. Hudbay Minerals Inc. had the largest increase, rising 9.4%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain 14 times. The next day, it advanced nine times for an average 0.9% and declined five times for an average 1.1%
* So far this week, the index rose 2.2%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended Nov. 11
* The index declined 6% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 10.8% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 10.9% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.1 on a trailing basis and 12.6 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.16t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 13.49% compared with 12.56% in the previous session and the average of 13.96% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | 81.1848| 2.4| 37/2
Financials | 65.8813| 1.1| 24/5
Industrials | 55.4128| 2.1| 23/3
Materials | 40.7205| 1.7| 43/7
Consumer Discretionary | 13.4278| 1.8| 13/2
Utilities | 13.0564| 1.5| 16/0
Consumer Staples | 11.7375| 1.4| 11/0
Information Technology | 11.5098| 1.0| 9/5
Communication Services | 10.0340| 1.0| 5/1
Real Estate | 4.3321| 0.9| 19/4
Health Care | 0.3816| 0.5| 4/3
* The benchmark 10-year bond rose and the yield fell 8.4 basis points to 3.095%
* The S&P 500 Index advanced 2.3%
US
By Emily Graffeo and Vildana Hajric
(Bloomberg) — US stocks had their best day in more than a month as traders speculated that a slowdown in wage growth will keep the Federal Reserve from having to intensify its battle against inflation. Treasuries rallied and the dollar dropped.
The S&P 500 jumped more than 2% to salvage the first weekly advance in the past five, while the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.9% in the four days. The dollar suffered its longest streak of weekly losses in two months as cooler wage growth outweighed an otherwise solid jobs report to fuel expectations the Fed will slow its pace of rate hikes.
Treasuries advanced Friday, with sharp declines in short-term yields where the policy-sensitive, two-year rate fell the most this week since November.
The eagerly anticipated December jobs report failed to offer a clear picture of the state of the American labor market, especially since it came a day after two jobs readings signaled continued tightness. Hiring exceeded estimates for the month and unemployment fell to the lowest in decades. Traders continued to mull how that strength contrasts with the weaker gains in hourly wages and what that means for Fed policy ahead. A reading on consumer prices is due next week.
“A new 53-year low in the unemployment rate is a real problem, suggesting the Fed made zero progress toward relieving labor market strain in 2022,” wrote Chris Low, chief economist at FHN Financial. “But the combination of the downward revision to November average hourly earnings and a lower-than-expected December rise buys the FOMC more time.”
Recent data only complicates the central bank’s task and creates uncertainty for traders. Kansas City Fed’s Esther George, on Friday, warned that officials will have a tough road ahead as they attempt to balance inflation and employment. Other Fed officials have also continued to be hawkish, saying that while data has been encouraging and inflation is easing, the central bank still has more work to do.
Swaps contracts show investors now expect the policy rate to peak at under 5% this cycle, down from 5.06% just before Friday’s jobs report. While traders remain divided about the size of February’s hike, with 33 basis points of tightening priced in it appears that a quarter-point move is seen as more likely than a half point increase. Traders are now awaiting December’s inflation reading that releases next week for further clues about the economy. 
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 2.3% as of 4:01 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 2.8%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 1.1%
* The euro rose 1.2% to $1.0644
* The British pound rose 1.6% to $1.2094
* The Japanese yen rose 1% to 132.08 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.3% to $16,900.11
* Ether rose 1.1% to $1,265.83
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined 16 basis points to 3.56%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined 11 basis points to 2.21%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined eight basis points to 3.47%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
* Gold futures rose 1.7% to $1,871.50 an ounce

–With assistance from Peyton Forte, Isabelle Lee and Elena Popina.
Have a lovely weekend

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Isabel

It is better to sleep on things beforehand than lie awake about them afterwards. – Baltasar Gracian, 1601-1658.

Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
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