January 6, 2025, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy New Year!  Three Kings Day – Epiphany of Twelfth Day.
Carnivale Season begins.

Ring out the old, ring in the new….Ring out the false, ring in the true. -Alfred, Lord Tennyson.

January 6, 1838: Samuel Morse and Alfred Vail demonstrate their telegraph system in New Jersey, revolutionizing long-distance communication.  Go to article.

Joan of Arc, Saint, b. 1412.
Carl Sandburg, poet, b.1878.
Kahlil Gibran, poet, b. 1883.

Brazilian nun becomes the world’s oldest person
A soccer-loving nun from Brazil is believed to have become the world’s oldest living person at nearly 117!

Why you should drink more water
Speaking of longevity, health experts say proper hydration can add years to your life. So, how much water is sufficient per day?

Here’s what trend forecasters think you’ll be wearing in 2025
From the resurrection of skinny jeans to donning pajamas during the day, here’s what experts believe you’ll add to your closet this year.

An NFL shake-up
The NFL’s New England Patriots fired head coach Jerod Mayo on Sunday after just one season. The Patriots join the New York Jets and New Orleans Saints as franchises that will be looking for a new head coach.

Ultimately, United will add Starlink to its entire fleet.
— United Airlines, announcing that its flights will have access to Elon Musk’s Starlink Wi-Fi services as early as this spring. The deal is yet another sign of the billionaire’s widening reach into industries across the US economy.

Just 2 hours is all it takes for AI agents to replicate your personality with 85% accuracy
Researchers from Google and Stanford have created accurate AI replicas of more than 1,000 people. Read more.

Quantum computers that are actually useful 1 step closer thanks to new silicon processor that could pack millions of qubits
We’ve just hit a ‘critical inflection point’ on the road to scalable quantum computers. Here’s why.

How do DNA tests tell if two people are related?
How can DNA from a cheek swab determine if someone is closely related to you?
DNA tests can tell people where in the world their ancestors came from, and if they’re at risk of developing different genetic conditions. They can sometimes even help people connect with family members they never knew they had. Read more.

2,100-year-old coin hoard dating to dynasty of Jewish kings discovered in Jordan Valley
A coin hoard dating back about 2,100 years, during the time of the Jewish Hasmonean kings, has been discovered at a site in the Jordan Valley. Read more.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

London, England
A person shields from the rain during the morning rush-hour as they walk on the South Bank, across the river from the Houses of Parliament
Photograph: Toby Melville/Reuters

Harbin, China
Visitors having fun at the Harbin Ice-Snow World in north-east China’s Heilongjiang province. The 41st Harbin International Ice and Snow Festival kicked started on Sunday with the theme ‘Dream of Winter, Love among Asia’
Photograph: Xinhua/Rex/Shutterstock

Pupukea, Hawaii
Eli Olson from Hawaii rides a wave during the Da Hui Backdoor Shootout surf competition at Hawaii’s Pipeline, in Pupukea, Oahu’s north shore
Photograph: Brian Bielmann/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for January 6, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1933, investor protection took a major step forward in the wake of the Great Crash as the New York Stock Exchange began requiring listed companies to have annual financial statements prepared by an independent auditor.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.3% at 24,999.79 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 0.7%.
Today, financials stocks led the market lower, as 9 of 11 sectors lost; 137 of 223 shares fell, while 85 rose.
Constellation Software Inc/Canada contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.1%.
Orla Mining Ltd. had the largest drop, falling 6.1%.
Insights
* The index advanced 19% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 26% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 3.3% below its 52-week high on Dec. 9, 2024 and 22.1% above its low on Feb. 13, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.8% in the past 5 days and fell 2.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.8 on a trailing basis and 17.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.96t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 10.06% compared with 10.93% in the previous session and the average of 9.36% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -35.7569| -0.4| 8/18
Materials | -34.3213| -1.2| 16/35
Consumer Staples | -17.4708| -1.8| 0/10
Consumer Discretionary | -8.6313| -1.1| 7/4
Industrials | -7.1612| -0.2| 9/19
Real Estate | -3.3694| -0.7| 6/14
Utilities | -1.8518| -0.2| 7/8
Health Care | -0.8473| -1.1| 0/4
Communication Services | -0.2694| 0.0| 3/2
Energy | 5.3055| 0.1| 23/19
Information Technology | 30.6044| 1.2| 6/4
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Constellation Software | -19.3100| -3.1| 58.4| -2.8
Brookfield Corp | -11.8500| -1.4| -25.5| -0.4
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd | -10.5000| -2.6| -24.2| 1.5
Canadian Natural Resources | 9.1630| 1.4| -24.4| 4.2
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 17.1200| 2.5| 31.9| 5.1
Shopify | 49.2600| 3.7| -27.3| 7.0
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rally in the world’s largest tech companies lifted stocks at the start of the first full trading week in 2025. The dollar trimmed losses as President-elect
Donald Trump said his tariff plan won’t be scaled back.
While most shares in the S&P 500 actually fell, dip buying fueled gains in Wall Street’s most-influential group — with Nvidia Corp. hitting a record high ahead of chief Jensen Huang’s speech.
Banks climbed on deregulation optimism, with Michael Barr stepping down as the Federal Reserve’s vice chair for supervision.
The news also fueled a steepening of the Treasury curve, with longer maturities underperforming.
The yield on 30-year bonds hit the highest since late 2023.
Scott Rubner at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sees signs of a short-term tactical bullish setup for US stocks, driven by institutional money flows and a lack of selling across trend- following systematic funds.
At JPMorgan Chase & Co., Andrew Tyler said while risks to the fierce rally are mounting, a bearish downturn remains “extremely unlikely” amid strong economic growth.
“The recovery we’ve seen Friday and today shows just how strong the ‘buy the dip’ mentality still is,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
“Investors continue to lean heavily on tech. Looking ahead, 2025 won’t be a year for easy double-digit gains by solely investing in the S&P 500.
Success in this market will require more discipline and creativity.”
The S&P 500 rose 0.6%.
The Nasdaq 100 added 1.1%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed.
A gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” mega caps rallied 2%.
American Airlines Group Inc. jumped on a trio of analyst upgrades.
Citigroup Inc. also gained on a bullish call.
Tencent Holdings Ltd. depositary receipts slid as the US added company to its Chinese military blacklist.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose two basis points to 4.62%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.6%.
The loonie gained as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau quit after more than nine years leading Canada.
Bitcoin topped $100,000.
Oil halted a five-session rally.
Lori Calvasina at RBC Capital Markets says investor exuberance in the stock market is starting to “self-correct” as a measure of sentiment and positioning fell into the year end.
“While this doesn’t tell us that the recent period of malaise in the stock market is over, we do think this deterioration in sentiment is actually good news for the stock market longer term,” she wrote.
The S&P 500’s December pullback didn’t prevent clients from being net buyers in nine of 11 sectors last month, according to Chris Larkin at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley.
“While there may have been a defensive element to some of the buying in utilities and real estate, the push into the consumer discretionary sector suggested more of a ‘risk-on’ mindset — led by purchases of TSLA and AMZN,” he noted.
Traders are also gearing up for Friday’s jobs report, which is expected to show employers tempered hiring to wrap up a year of moderating yet still-healthy labor market.
The data is unlikely to alter the view of Federal Reserve officials that they can slow the pace of rate cuts amid a durable economy and inflation that’s dissipating only gradually.
Fed Governor Lisa Cook said Monday that policymakers can proceed more cautiously amid a sturdy labor market and lingering inflation pressures.
US stocks are becoming rate sensitive again, with breadth turning narrow after the US 10-year Treasury yield rose above 4.5%, according to Morgan Stanley strategists led by Michael Wilson.
“In order to see the return of a ‘good is good’ backdrop where hotter economic data drives upside in stocks even amid higher rates, we likely need to see more convincing evidence that animal spirits are inflecting and translating into stronger economic activity,” they wrote.
Notwithstanding fewer likely rate cuts, Solita Marcelli at UBS Global Wealth Management, sees a favorable backdrop ahead —driven by a mixture of lower borrowing costs, resilient US activity, a broadening of US earnings growth, further AI monetization, and the potential for greater capital market activity under a second Trump administration.
“We expect the S&P 500 to hit 6,600 by end-2025 and suggest that under-allocated investors consider using any near-term turbulence to add to US stocks, including through structured strategies,” she noted. The gauge closed at 5,975.38 Monday.

Corporate Highlights:
* Walt Disney Co. agreed to merge its Hulu + Live TV streaming service with the online sports-focused company FuboTV Inc., creating the second-biggest digital pay-TV provider.
* Meta Platforms Inc. elected three new directors to its board, including Ultimate Fighting Championship Chief Executive Officer Dana White, one of the media industry’s most influential executives and a high-profile campaigner for US President-elect Donald Trump.
* Advanced Micro Devices Inc., the second-biggest maker of computer processors, said its chips will be used by Dell Technologies Inc. for the first time in PCs sold to businesses.
* Dell Technologies Inc. is re-branding its PCs in a manner reminiscent of Apple Inc.’s naming conventions in an effort by the computer maker to spur demand.
* Qualcomm Inc. introduced new chips designed to power personal computers capable of running the latest artificial intelligence software yet cost as little as $600.
* Nippon Steel Corp. and United States Steel Corp. jointly filed a pair of lawsuits in a last-ditch effort to preserve their planned merger, which was blocked last week by President Joe Biden.
* Carvana Co. said it has reestablished an agreement with Ally Financial Inc. to sell the lender up to $4 billion in used- vehicle loan receivables over the next year, a move that counters one claim by short seller Hindenburg Research that the financier was pulling back on their relationship.

Key events this week:
* Eurozone CPI, unemployment, Tuesday
* US job openings, trade, ISM services, Tuesday
* Fed’s Thomas Barkin speaks, Tuesday
* Eurozone PPI, consumer confidence, Wednesday
* US ADP employment, Fed minutes, consumer credit, Wednesday
* Fed’s Christopher Waller speaks, Wednesday
* China CPI, PPI, Thursday
* Eurozone retail sales, Thursday
* US state funeral and national day of mourning for former President Jimmy Carter is a federal holiday, Thursday
* Fed’s Patrick Harker, Thomas Barkin, Jeff Schmid and Michelle Bowman speak, Thursday
* Japan household spending, leading index, Friday
* US jobs report, consumer sentiment, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.7%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 2%
* The Russell 2000 Index was little changed
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.6%
* The euro rose 0.8% to $1.0388
* The British pound rose 0.8% to $1.2520
* The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 157.63 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 3.8% to $102,260.79
* Ether rose 1.1% to $3,688.08
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.62%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 2.45%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.61%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.7% to $73.44 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.2% to $2,635.40 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Andre Janse van Vuuren, Allegra Catelli, Julien Ponthus and Catherine Bosley.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Education is our passport to the future, for tomorrow belongs only to the people who prepare for it today. –Malcolm X, 1925-1965.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com