January 30, 2024, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.  Holiday of the Three Hierarchs, Greece.

January 30, 1963: Coca-Cola introduces its first diet soda, Tab, paving the way for the diet beverage industry.
January 30, 1969: The Beatles performed in public for the last time in a 45-minute gig on the roof of their Apple Records headquarters in London.  Go to article

January 30, 1972: Bloody Sunday, Northern Ireland.
January 30,1948: Mahatma Gandhi assassinated.

Franklin D. Roosevelt, 32^nd  US President, b. 1882.

Some Super Bowl commercials this year are selling for $8 million
Fox, the broadcaster of this year’s Super Bowl, is commanding $8 million for some of its 30-second commercial spots during the big game. Sources say the network has made at least 10 of these deals.

Soccer team inside the Arctic Circle has Champions League aspirations
Bodø/Glimt is an unlikely presence among Europe’s soccer elite, but this Norwegian team representing a town of 55,000 people inside the Arctic Circle has grand ambitions.

Britain’s Princess Beatrice gives birth to second daughter
Princess Beatrice has given birth to a daughter named Athena Elizabeth Rose Mapelli Mozzi, Buckingham Palace announced. See a photo here.

Carbon-conscious travelers can now sail across the Atlantic in a wind-powered cargo ship
Described as “the world’s largest cargo ship with sails,” the Anemos has opened its cabins to offer passengers a low-carbon trip across the Atlantic.

1,900-year-old papyrus ‘best-documented Roman court case from Judaea apart from the trial of Jesus’
A newly translated papyrus found in Israel provides information about criminal cases and slave ownership in the Roman Empire. Read More.

Ocean warming 4 times faster than in 1980s — and likely to accelerate in coming decades
Ocean warming has more than quadrupled in recent decades and is likely to accelerate even faster if humanity fails to address climate change, scientists find. Read More.

Asteroid Bennu contains the ‘seeds of life,’ OSIRIS-REx samples reveal
Scientists have found all five nucleobases alongside minerals essential for life as we know it on the potentially hazardous asteroid Bennu. Read More.

RIP Marianne Faithfull.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Toronto, Canada
The CN Tower is illuminated with green lights to mark the national day of remembrance of the Quebec City mosque attack and action against Islamophobia
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

Reindeer walk the road in Kvaløya, an island in northern Norway
Photograph: Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto/Rex/Shutterstock

​​​​​​​Beijing, China
A dancer performing the traditional lion dance during lunar new year celebrations
Photograph: Andrés Martínez Casares/EPA
Market Closes for January 30, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

MARKET COMMENTARY:
📈 On this day in 2000, 17 dot-com companies spent a total of nearly $38 million on network television ads during Super Bowl XXXIV. By the next Super Bowl, at least three had gone into Chapter 11, largely due to the money spent on the promotions
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the third day, climbing 1.3%, or 334.96 to 25,808.25 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 1.4% on Nov. 21.
Today, materials stocks led the market higher, as all sectors gained; 165 of 222 shares rose, while 54 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.4%.
Celestica Inc. had the largest increase, rising 14.3%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain seven times. The next day, it advanced six times for an average 0.6% and declined 0.3% once
* This month, the index rose 4.4%
* So far this week, the index rose 1.3%
* The index advanced 22% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 23% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 26.1% above its low on Feb. 13, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.5% in the past 5 days and rose 4.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.3 on a trailing basis and 17.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.01t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 12.00% compared with 11.40% in the previous session and the average of 11.09% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | 104.7090| 3.4| 44/5
Information Technology | 76.6366| 2.8| 8/2
Financials | 54.4781| 0.7| 15/11
Industrials | 34.0273| 1.1| 18/10
Energy | 26.0676| 0.6| 26/16
Utilities | 15.7204| 1.7| 12/3
Real Estate | 7.2277| 1.5| 20/0
Consumer Staples | 5.6256| 0.6| 6/4
Communication Services | 4.6336| 0.8| 3/1
Consumer Discretionary | 4.4798| 0.5| 9/2
Health Care | 1.3394| 1.9| 4/0
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 34.8300| 2.4| 24.6| 12.8
RBC | 26.1700| 1.5| -15.9| 3.1
Brookfield Corp | 25.9200| 3.0| 4.7| 8.7
Loblaw | -2.1730| -1.2| 28.2| -3.4
Nutrien | -3.0070| -1.1| -8.2| 17.8
Sun Life Financial | -3.8720| -1.1| 98.8| -2.1
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks whipsawed in the final stretch of Wall Street trading, with tech under pressure ahead of Apple Inc.’s results.
Oil edged up while Mexico and Canada’s currencies slumped as President Donald Trump said he would follow through on his threat to impose 25% tariffs on both countries.
Despite a slide in the S&P 500’s most-influential group —technology — about 80% of the gauge’s companies advanced.
Buoyed by data showing a surge in consumer spending, economically sensitive corners of Wall Street such as small caps largely outperformed.
The US equity benchmark’s equal-weighted version — one that gives Target Corp. as much clout as Nvidia Corp. —climbed 1%, fueling hopes the bull market would broaden out.
That would help reduce concerns around the “concentration risk” from the tech mega caps that have come to dominate benchmark indexes.
Those jitters were on full display earlier this week when an artificial intelligence-model from Chinese startup DeepSeek added to doubts on whether valuations of the technology that has powered the torrid rally from the market lows would be tough to justify.
“This bull market is still ‘breathing,’ and we should expect more stock participation in the months ahead if the economy cooperates and rates quiet down,” said Callie Cox at Ritholtz Wealth Management.
It’s not that the AI story is “doomed,” but “there are so many opportunities in unloved sectors that have been ignored for so long.”
While the bulk of the growth in S&P 500 earnings continues to come from the high-flying tech mega caps, growth is projected to come in at the slowest pace in almost two years.
Robust results are a much-needed driver for US stocks after as Wall Street dialed back expectations for interest-rate cuts this year.
Upbeat outlooks from industry heavyweights like Tesla Inc., Meta Platforms Inc. and International Business Machines Corp. also buoyed trading.
While the majority of companies have so far exceeded expectations, disappointing forecasts have been met with selloffs, with Microsoft Corp. and United Parcel Service Inc. being the latest examples.
The S&P 500 rose 0.5%.
The Nasdaq 100 added 0.5%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.5%.
A gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” mega caps was little changed.
The Russell 2000 of small firms gained 1.1%.
In late hours, Intel Corp. reported sales and profit forecasts fell far short of analysts’ projections.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined was little changed at 4.53%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed.
The US economy expanded at a solid pace at the end of 2024, despite drags from a strike at Boeing Co. and much leaner inventory investment.
Consumer spending, which comprises the largest share of economic activity, advanced at a 4.2% pace — the first time since late 2021 that outlays have exceeded 3% in consecutive quarters.
The acceleration was the biggest since early 2023 and was led by a pickup in motor vehicle sales.
To Neil Birrell at Premier Miton Investors, while the data is all a bit historic now, the economy is “doing just fine.”
“Overall, the economy is on firm footing heading into 2025, which should support risk assets given the strong linkage between economic growth and corporate profits,” said Josh Jamner at ClearBridge Investments.
At Strategas, Don Rissmiller says that even if that pace is starting to slow, the Federal Reserve can likely continue its policy pause for a few more months — to gather more data.
Weekly jobless claims data released at the same time unexpectedly declined, a sign of labor market strength.
The Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday left interest rates unchanged as expected — after cutting them at each of their three previous meetings since September — and indicated that stalled progress toward lower inflation warranted a patient approach.
“‘Remaining patient’ and ‘no rush’ seem to be how the FOMC plans on operating into the middle of the year, with a bumpy path for inflation giving the Fed pause before reading too much into gains that could prove idiosyncratic,” said Marvin Loh and Hope Allard at State Street Global Markets.
“The US consumer has been unstoppable, supported by wealth creation, a strong labor market, and lending. Still, inflation is still a bit too high for the Fed’s liking and the bar to a March rate cut is rising,” said Ellen Zentner at Morgan Stanley
Wealth Management.
On Friday, the attention will shift to the Fed’s favored inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures index.
It’s expected to show a small acceleration in price hikes by increasing 2.5% from a year earlier, up from 2.4% in the previous month, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
Monthly US household spending figures on Friday will likely point to momentum heading into 2025.
Economists also expect the personal income and spending report to show a slight pickup in the personal consumption expenditures index from a month earlier.
“Friday’s PCE is likely to show that inflation is still elevated and above the Fed’s target, and it comes at a time when markets are hyper jittery about a trifecta of other issues, including big tech, AI and Federal Reserve uncertainty,” said Carol Schleif at BMO Private Wealth.
As the earnings season rolls in, concerns over Apple Inc.’s first-quarter results have met with 11th-hour optimism that it could eventually benefit from the same force that recently wreaked havoc on the tech sector.
The emergence of Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek is seen as a positive for Apple as cheaper AI models could contribute to a long-anticipated — and so far unrealized — iPhone upgrade cycle and re-acceleration in growth.
The outlook for AI and iPhones will be in focus with results due after market close. 

Corporate Highlights:
* An American Airlines Group Inc. regional jet collided with a military helicopter near Washington on Wednesday leaving no survivors, marking one of the deadliest US air disasters in recent decades.
* Southwest Airlines Co. warned that costs will climb faster than expected as it grapples with heavy labor expenses, undercutting gains from strong demand for leisure travel.
* The US Federal Trade Commission is probing whether Uber Technologies Inc. and Lyft Inc. illegally coordinated to limit driver pay in New York City, according to documents reviewed by Bloomberg News.
* The US Justice Department sued to block Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co.’s $14 billion acquisition of Juniper Networks Inc., arguing the tie-up would harm competition in the market for enterprise wireless equipment used by large companies, universities and hospitals.
* Caterpillar Inc. warned that revenues will be “slightly lower” in 2025 as demand concerns weigh on the outlook of the heavy equipment maker.
* Mastercard Inc. reported earnings that beat estimates as the firm diversifies beyond its traditional payment network into anti-fraud services, data analysis and global money movement.
* Rogers Communications Inc. beat analysts’ fourth-quarter estimates as wireless service revenue gained and subscribers bought more expensive devices.
* Cigna Group reported cost pressures from surprisingly high catastrophic medical claims that are likely to persist.

Key events this week:
* US personal income & spending, PCE inflation, employment cost index, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.6%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index was little changed
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 1.1%
* S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index rose 1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro fell 0.1% to $1.0410
* The British pound fell 0.1% to $1.2438
* The Japanese yen rose 0.6% to 154.24 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.2% to $104,968.45
* Ether rose 2.9% to $3,232.19
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.52%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 2.52%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 4.56%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.4% to $72.90 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 1.3% to $2,796.16 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Vildana Hajric, Margaryta Kirakosian, Allegra Catelli and Divya Patil.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Once you replace negative thoughts with positive ones, you’ll start having positive results. –Willie Nelson, b. 1933.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com