January 3, 2024, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Memento Mori Day.

January 3, 1496: Leonardo da Vinci unsuccessfully tests a flying machine.
1961: The United States severed diplomatic relations with Cuba.  Go to article >>

J.R.R. Tolkien,  author, b.1892.
Stephen Stills, musician, b.1945.

Animated ‘Game of Thrones’ spinoffs are in the works
George R.R. Martin, the “Game of Thrones” author, said he’s working on three animated projects based on the wildly popular franchise. This comes as fans anxiously await the second season of HBO’s “House of the Dragon,” which is set to debut this summer. (HBO is owned by CNN’s parent company.)

3 scary breakthroughs AI will make in 2024
Although 2023 was a game-changing year for artificial intelligence, it was only the beginning, with 2024 set to usher in a host of scary advancements that may include artificial general intelligence and
even more realistic deepfakes. Read More.

1,500-year-old gold buckles discovered in Kazakhstan
The ornaments contain the earliest known depiction of a Göktürk “khagan,” who probably lived in the sixth century. Read More.

Ancient ‘celestial calendar’ found in Chinese tomb
It’s the first time written slips linked to the ancient calendar have been found in a tomb. Read More.

The tough task of saving the Panama Canal,

Film | 20 must-see movies coming out in 2024

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Rovaniemi, Finland
‘In December the sun is above the horizon for just three hours, which makes watching the sunrise much less of an early start.’
Photograph: Alice Ahearn/GuardianWitness

London, UK
A worker counts Humboldt penguins during the London Zoo’s annual stocktake
Photograph: James Veysey/Rex/Shutterstock

Kuwait City, Kuwait
Lightning strikes Al-Hamra tower (right) and Liberation tower
Photograph: Yasser Al-Zayyat/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for January 3^rd, 2024

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:

Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 0.3%, or 53.56 to 20,818.58 in Toronto.
The index dropped to the lowest closing level since Dec. 21.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 2.5%.
First Majestic Silver Corp. had the largest drop, falling 7.0%.
Today, 160 of 225 shares fell, while 65 rose; 8 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* The index advanced 7.1% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 23% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.3% below its 52-week high on Dec. 27, 2023 and 11.4% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.3% in the past 5 days and rose 1.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.3 on a trailing basis and 15.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.3t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 10.85% compared with 10.82% in the previous session and the average of 11.16% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -46.4887| -0.7| 2/25
Materials | -28.6980| -1.2| 10/42
Information Technology | -20.2302| -1.2| 1/9
Industrials | -13.1740| -0.5| 4/22
Consumer Discretionary | -12.5730| -1.7| 1/12
Real Estate | -5.5680| -1.1| 3/18
Utilities | -2.6878| -0.3| 6/9
Consumer Staples | -2.5984| -0.3| 2/9
Health Care | 0.6521| 1.1| 2/2
Communication Services | 4.4003| 0.6| 4/1
Energy | 73.4112| 2.0| 30/11
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -20.8100| -2.5| -39.1| -7.0
TD Bank | -9.2010| -0.8| 49.8| -0.8
Barrick Gold | -8.4710| -2.9| -25.5| -3.3
Constellation Software | 7.1060| 1.6| -32.8| 0.5
Canadian Natural Resources | 19.6200| 3.0| -58.2| 3.9
Suncor Energy | 23.0000| 5.9| -6.5| 6.8
US
By Cristin Flanagan
(Bloomberg) — US stocks extended a slump while bonds edged higher in the aftermath of the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last meeting.
The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.1%, extending a losing streak for a fourth day — the longest in over two months — as investors continued to retreat from last year’s winning tech stocks.
The S&P 500slid 0.8% while the Russell 2000 small caps gauge dropped 2.6%.
Tesla Inc. and semiconductor stocks slumped while crypto-tied equities floundered as Bitcoin erased most of its gains this year.
The dollar strengthened for a fourth day, the longest run since November.
Fed policymakers said rates could stay restrictive for longer than anticipated last month, while noting rates cuts could emerge before the year is out.
Swaps traders had been  factoring in a full quarter point cut to the benchmark rate by the March meeting on Friday.
Treasury yields ended the day near session lows with the rate on the 10-year reversing after climbing just above 4%, the highest since mid-December, earlier in the day.
“Overall, it was a hawkish update from the Fed,” according to Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets, though “the tone has apparently fallen on indifferent ears.”
“The FOMC minutes focused on better balanced risks to growth and inflation, but policy will remain restrictive for some time,” Morgan Stanley’s Ellen Zentner wrote. “We do not think this is a Fed planning to lower interest rates anytime soon.”
Fed Chair Jerome Powell ignited a market rally last month after indicating that policymakers had discussed lowering interest rates.
His colleagues at the US central bank then attempted to walk back market enthusiasm for quicker and deeper rate cuts in the days that followed.
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin held off on giving a forecast on when the US central bank’s first rate cut would occur. “Conditions are ever evolving,” he said in prepared remarks Wednesday. “So too will our approach. So, buckle up.  That’s the proper safety protocol even if you expect a soft landing.”
The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing gauge hit 47.4 last month, data out Wednesday showed.
The index has remained below the 50 level — indicating a contraction – since late 2022.
Separate data showed the number of job openings fell slightly in November from the prior month’s revised number.
“Overall, the labor market remains strong, but demand is cooling, coming into better balance with supply,” Rubeela Farooqi, chief US economist at High Frequency Economics wrote.
“These data will be welcome news for policymakers and support the Fed’s view that the next move in rates will be lower, likely in Q2.”
Friday’s jobs report could cement the cooling narrative, according to ING’s James Knightley.
The makeup of jobs growth is “almost as important as the payrolls number itself in determining the prospect for rate cuts in 2024,” he said.
Elsewhere, a slump in Bitcoin on Wednesday saw the cryptocurrency erase almost all gains it had made so far this year.
Stocks tied to the sector slipped with MicroStrategy Inc. sliding about 8% and Coinbase Global Inc. dropping roughly 3%.
“The year is certainly off to a rough start, which may motivate more profit taking, after the outsized gains of last year, but the fundamentals haven’t changed, nor have earnings estimates,” according to Louis Navellier of Navellier &
Associates. “There are opportunities in good stocks with attractive values being dragged down for no good reason.”
In corporate news, Walt Disney Co.’s Chief Executive Officer, Bob Iger, was drumming up investor support as he seeks to stave off pressure from billionaire activist Nelson Peltz.
Barrick Gold Corp. is sounding out some of First Quantum Minerals Ltd.’s major investors to gauge their support for a potential takeover.
Cigna Group slumped after a Wall Street Journal report it was near a deal to sell its Medicare business for $3 billion to $4 billion. 

Key events this week:
* China Caixin services PMI, Thursday
* Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, ADP employment, Thursday
* Eurozone CPI, PPI, Friday
* US nonfarm payrolls/unemployment, factory orders, ISM services index, Friday
* Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin — an FOMC voter in 2024 — speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.8% as of 4:01 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.8%
* The MSCI World index fell 0.9%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0921
* The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.2664
* The Japanese yen fell 0.9% to 143.24 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 5.3% to $42,749.04
* Ether fell 6.2% to $2,219.55
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 3.90%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 2.02%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 3.64%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 3.8% to $73.02 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.8% to $2,041.50 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Alex Nicholson, Tassia Sipahutar, Pearl Liu, Alice Gledhill, James Hirai and Joanna Ossinger.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Your present circumstances don’t determine where you can go.  They merely determine where you start. –Nido Qubein, b. 1948.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com