Dear Friends,
Tangents: New Year, New Opportunities 🌟
I am writing the newsletter on behalf of Carolann.
January 2, 1788 – Georgia becomes a U.S. State – Georgia is ratified as the fourth state of the United States. The Times of India
January 2, 1890 – Alice Sanger Appointed to the White House – Alice Sanger becomes the first female White House staffer. Time and Date
January 2, 1959 – Luna 1 Launched – The Soviet spacecraft Luna 1 is launched, becoming the first human‑made object to reach the vicinity of the Moon. Time and Date
January 2, 1981 – Yorkshire Ripper Captured – Peter Sutcliffe, known as the “Yorkshire Ripper,” is arrested in England. Time and Date
January 2, 2008 – Oil prices soared to $100 a barrel for the first time. Go to article
Philip Freneau, American poet and journalist. b, 1752
Henry M. Flagler, American industrialist and co‑founder of Standard Oil. b, 1830
Isaac Asimov, Russian‑American science fiction author and biochemist. b, 1920
Roger Miller, American singer‑songwriter (King of the Road). b, 1936
François Pienaar, South African rugby union captain and World Cup winner. b, 1967
Christy Turlington, American supermodel and health advocate. b, 1969
January ‘Wolf Supermoon’: How to see the full moon rise with Jupiter this weekend
The first full moon of 2026 and of winter in the Northern Hemisphere will shine brightly this week, just as Earth makes its annual closest approach to the sun.
Trees in Panama’s tropical forests are growing longer roots in the face of drought
A long-term experiment reveals tropical forests in Panama are able to adapt to droughts, but scientists warn this short-term "rescue strategy" is unlikely to save them from the impacts of climate change.
Live Science’s health channel editor makes predictions about the medical breakthroughs and public health shifts to come in 2026.
About 6 in 10 Americans say they feel politically connected by generation
Americans feel more politically connected by generation than they do by race or gender, CNN polling data finds.
British Chinese food is all over TikTok. Americans have questions
British Chinese takeout — a much-cherished cuisine but little understood outside the UK — bears so few similarities to its US counterpart that Americans have been sharing their surprise, and sometimes outright horror, on social media.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Two women celebrate the turn of the year at Copacabana beach
Photograph: Tita Barros/Reuters
Kyiv, Ukraine
A woman walks through Saint Volodymyr Hill park
Photograph: Roman Pilipey/AFP/Getty
Ottawa, Canada
People skate along the Rideau Canal
Photograph: Spencer Colby/The Canadian Press/AP
Market Closes for January 2nd, 2026
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| Dow Jones |
48382.39 | +319.10 |
| +0.66% | ||
| S&P 500 | 6858.47 | +12.97 |
| +0.19% | ||
| NASDAQ | 23235.63 | -6.36 |
| -0.03% | ||
| TSX | 31883.37 | +170.61 |
| +0.54% |
International Markets
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| NIKKEI | 50339.48 | -187.44 |
| -0.37% | ||
| HANG SENG |
26338.47 | +707.93 |
| +2.76% | ||
| SENSEX | 85762.01 | +573.41 |
| +0.67% | ||
| FTSE 100* | 9951.14 | +19.76 |
| +0.20% |
Bonds
| Bonds | % Yield | Previous % Yield |
| CND. 10 Year Bond |
3.470 | 3.432 |
| CND. 30 Year Bond |
3.917 | 3.861 |
| U.S. 10 Year Bond |
4.1907 | 4.1670 |
| U.S. 30 Year Bond |
4.8702 | 4.8436 |
| BOC Close | Today | Previous |
| Canadian $ | 0.7282 | 0.7287 |
| US $ |
1.3731 | 1.3721 |
| Euro Rate 1 Euro= |
Inverse | |
| Canadian $ | 0.6208 | 1.6106 |
| US $ |
0.8525 | 1.1729 |
Commodities
| Gold | Close | Previous |
| London Gold Fix |
4367.80 | 4367.80 |
| Oil | ||
| WTI Crude Future | 57.32 | 57.95 |
Market Commentary:
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.5% at 31,883.37 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 0.8% on Dec.
22 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.5%.
Today, energy stocks led the market higher, as 8 of 11 sectors gained; 137 of 218 shares rose, while 80 fell.
Cameco Corp. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 7.7%.
Energy Fuels Inc/Canada had the largest increase, rising 15.4%.
Insights
* So far this week, the index fell 0.4%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended Nov. 21
* The index advanced 28% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 18% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.6% below its 52-week high on Dec. 22, 2025 and 43.4% above its low on April 7, 2025
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.5 on a trailing basis and 19.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$5.04t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 10.70% compared with 10.81% in the previous session and the average of 13.14% over the past month
Index Points
Energy | 105.2070| 2.2| 32/6
Financials | 65.7945| 0.6| 15/9
Industrials | 24.5946| 0.7| 21/8
Materials | 10.8423| 0.2| 26/30
Consumer Discretionary | 5.9861| 0.6| 6/3
Utilities | 4.1784| 0.4| 9/5
Consumer Staples | 4.0436| 0.4| 7/3
Health Care | 0.8042| 0.9| 2/2
Real Estate | -0.8725| -0.2| 13/5
Communication Services | -1.3475| -0.2| 3/2
Information Technology | -48.6160| -1.6| 3/7
Cameco | 29.4500| 7.7| -4.0| 7.7
Bank of Montreal | 16.7100| 1.9| -16.4| 1.9
Brookfield Corp | 16.1500| 1.7| -43.8| 1.7
Thomson Reuters | -6.9940| -4.1| 18.9| -4.1
Constellation Software | -8.6760| -1.9| -24.7| -1.9
Shopify | -41.6100| -2.2| -34.0| -2.2
Energy Fuels | 15.4| 5.0740| 24.5| 15.4
Denison Mines | 13.7| 2.9150| 91.6| 13.7
NexGen Energy | 11.5| 6.6320| 74.1| 11.5
G. Mining |Ventures | -8.0| -3.7460| -60.7| -8.0
Wesdome Gold | Mines | -4.5| -1.0760| 15.4| -4.5
Thomson | Reuters | -4.1| -6.9940| 18.9| -4.1
MT Newswires:
Canada’s main stock market, the Toronto Stock Exchange, marked the start of the new trading year after a record performance in 2025 by closing up for the first time in five sessions Friday, largely on bargain buying, even with commodity prices deflated and with TD Economics saying Canada’s economy starts 2026 "under a cloud".
Today, the TSX was up 170.61 or 0.5% at 31,883.37.
This was a first positive day for the resources heavy index since it set a record close of 32,058.73 on Dec. 23, 2025.
Of commodities, Comex gold ended the week 4.86% lower at US$4314.40.
Meanwhile, oil was steady as Bloomberg noted expectations for a supply surplus offset geopolitical risks to production in several OPEC+ nations. Still, among sectors, Base Metals gained 2.6% and Energy was up 1.8%.
Despite the fact the TSX went into today’s session up 26.51% from the Inauguration Day close of 25,067.92 on Monday, Jan 20, 2025, TD Economics in highlights from its ‘Weekly Bottom Line’ note on this Friday said Canada’s economy starts 2026 "under a cloud as underlying domestic demand remains weak".
TD noted trade losses with the United States have been primarily offset by gains in resource, metals, and agricultural trade, while key manufactured goods still face tariff challenges.
"Building on positive momentum while addressing key underlying issues will be critical for success in 2026," the bank added.
After a 2025 that featured a "historic disruption" to Canada’s economic relationship with its biggest trading partner, the U.S., TD said 2026 "starts with the promise of a fresh start."
According to TD, the economy has "shown some mettle", likely growing 1.7% in 2025 as data revisions revealed better-than-expected past performance and large swings in trade-flattered topline figures.
However, it added, there are "real cracks under the surface", noting domestic demand contracted in two quarters this year, and focus is now firmly on how Ottawa’s strategy of new infrastructure, defense spending, and "greasing the wheels" on major projects to diversify trade markets begins to be delivered.
Next week, TD noted, the trickle of data updates on Canada’s economy will resume.
Delayed information on October’s trade balance will give another snapshot of how the process to diversify trading partners is going.
Thus far, Canada has managed to more than offset the $13 billion decline in exports to the U.S. with $16.3 billion in flows to the rest of the world.
Moreover, roughly 87% of Canadian exports to the U.S. in September (the last month for which we have data) were still duty-free as the increase in compliance under CUSMA has ("thus far") shielded products from the 35% tariff rate.
"Unfortunately," TD added, "there is more to this data than meets the eye."
TD noted the protection conveyed by CUSMA doesn’t extend to specific goods tariffed under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act.
These levies have materially affected the competitiveness of Canadian manufactured goods south of the border.
TD said Motor and Other Vehicles (-$3.3 billion year-to-date), steel & iron (-$2.0 billion), and aluminum (-$1.4 billion) exports to the U.S. have contracted significantly.
Moreover, it added, flows abroad for most of those products have not been sufficient to offset the lost revenues.
Secondly, TD said, the offsets to the trade losses are not coming from redirecting flows elsewhere, but by growth in other sectors.
In fact, it added, the economy has "generally" fallen back on the resource sector and raw materials sectors to grow exports.
Leading the way are shipments of gold (+$5.3 billion), oil (+$3.8 billion), cereals (+0.9 billion) and fertilizer ($0.7 billion).
TD said a "silver lining" in non-resource sectors has been the aerospace industry.
Aircraft exports are up over $1 billion dollars compared to the first nine months of 2024, and when jet engines are included in the tally, that contribution rises to roughly $2 billion dollars.
"What the data reveal are the tricky particularities Canada faces when it comes to competing in the global marketplace," TD said, before adding: "The regional elements of Canada’s economy mean that the parts of the country leading the charge on diversification are not necessarily those losing out from market access to our country’s largest trading partner.
Moreover, CUSMA is set for a review this year, and its future is all but certain.
Looking to 2026, the challenges facing the economy are daunting, so here’s hoping that the positive momentum (where we’ve seen it) can hold up while the key issues are addressed."
US
By Ira Iosebashvili, Andre Janse van Vuuren and Isabelle Lee (Bloomberg) — US stocks edged higher on Friday, as investors started 2026 on cautious footing following a year of strong equity performance while keeping an eye on rising Treasury yields.
The benchmark S&P 500 Index closed up 0.2% after swinging between gains and losses earlier in the session.
The Nasdaq 100 was down 0.2%, with both gauges dented by weakness in technology names.
Shares of Tesla Inc. fell after the company reported deliveries for the fourth quarter that missed the average analyst estimate, while Amazon Inc. and Microsoft Corp. slid.
A Bloomberg measure of Magnificent Seven stocks sank by about 1%.
There were pockets of strength as well, with some semiconductor equipment makers and other chip stocks rallying, including Nvidia Corp. and Micron Technology Inc.
Shares of energy companies were mostly higher, along with industrials and utilities.
The mixed start clashed with the optimistic tone most strategists struck at the end of 2025, when tech and AI helped power the S&P 500 to a third year of double-digit gains.
Forecasts signal more of the same for 2026 despite lingering wariness over already stretched valuations and fears that vast amounts of capital expenditure could fail to pay off.
Market participants “aren’t necessarily cautious,” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers.
However, “they may be fully invested going into the new year.”
Investors were also watching Treasury yields, which can weigh on stocks if they rise too quickly.
The 10-year yield was up two basis points at 4.19%.
The 30-year yield hit 4.88% earlier in the session, its highest level since September, before retreating.
“Stocks are stumbling out of the gate as interest rates rise to uncomfortable levels,” said Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial.
A breakout above 4.20% on the 10-year “would generate an upside target near 4.50%,” he added.
Precious metals unwound earlier gains, with gold prices lower and silver up about 1.2%.
The dollar was up little changed a basket of currencies.
Bitcoin rose 1.6%.
Day One
The S&P 500 has recorded declines on the first trading days of the previous three years.
Since 1953, the S&P 500’s median change to kick off a new year has been a 0.3% drop, with gains less than half the time, according to a note by Bespoke Investment Group.
What Bloomberg strategists say…
“In years when the S&P 500 rose in January yet failed to rally in December, returns were pretty mixed.
Ultimately, seasonality offers little guidance. Earnings might help, but the fourth-quarter season doesn’t kick off until mid-January.
That leaves stocks trading with little direction, guided mainly by business surveys and shutdown-impacted economic data.”
— Tatiana Darie, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.
Strategists at Deutsche Bank noted that several key themesapart from AI will shape markets in 2026, including new developments in US trade policies and specifically a Supreme Court case that will rule on the legality of levies.
The Fed will be another major focus, with President Donald Trump expected to name a successor to Jerome Powell early in the year.
Barclays Plc warned equity markets could get choppy as they enter 2026 at record highs that are “over-reliant on AI success.”
The team still expects further gains this year, thanks to resilient corporate earnings and a favorable trade-off between growth and monetary policy.
Bank of America Corp. strategists see the S&P 500 hitting 7,100 this year, a roughly 4% gain from its current price.
The “growing capital-intensity of big tech spenders that make up an outsized share of the index, elevated multiples, plus cracks in the labor market (with further downside linked to AI upside) argues for a more cautious stance,” they wrote.
Corporate News:
* Mega-cap tech companies led a disproportionate share of the US stock market’s gains in 2025. Their executives also accounted for an outsized share of insider selling as billionaire founders, CEOs and directors took more than $16 billion off the table.
* BYD Co. met its full-year sales target and likely surpassed Tesla Inc. to become the world’s largest electric-vehicle maker in 2025 — a milestone overshadowed by a challenging outlook for the Chinese auto market in the year ahead.
* Orsted A/S filed a legal complaint after the Trump administration suspended the lease of a wind project that’s near completion off Rhode Island.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.2% as of 4:01 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1720
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3459
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 156.85 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.6% to $89,725.39
* Ether rose 4.5% to $3,119.96
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.19%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 2.90%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 4.54%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.2% to $57.30 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.2% to $4,329.68 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Anand Krishnamoorthy, Subrat Patnaik, Rheaa Rao and Isabelle Lee.
Happy new year.
Be magnificent!
As ever,
Shima"
"To survive is a violence"– Michel Onfray
Shima Zangeneh
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.
340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828