January 25, 2024 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.  First full moon of 2024 is tonight. 

Burns’ Night tonight.

“Oh wad some power the giftie gie us – To see ourselves as others see us. “ –Robert Burns.

On Jan. 25, 1915, the inventor of the telephone, Alexander Graham Bell, inaugurated U.S. transcontinental telephone service.  Go to article >>

Robert Burns, poet, b. 1759.

1874. Somerset Maugham, author, b. 1874.

Virginia Woolf, writer, b. 1882.

A 99-year-old swimmer broke three world records.

Science says a pinch of salt makes tea taste better.

The reason why you’re TATT (Tired All The Time).

Jon Stewart to return to ‘The Daily Show’
After almost a decade, the comedian will return to the show as a weekly host starting February 12. Watch this short video to learn how his return could impact the 2024 presidential race.

A judge is set to rule on a dispute over who created one of India’s best-known dishes globally. One restaurant claims it created the curry in the 1930s, but another rival chain said the restaurant’s story is complete naan-sense. 

Why the ‘sleepy girl mocktail’ might be a good idea
The internet is raving about a cherry juice mocktail … but does the concoction actually help you get a better night’s rest? Dietitians and health experts are weighing in. 

Alzheimer’s comes in at least 5 distinct forms, study reveals

Knowing that Alzheimer’s comes in at least five distinct forms could change the treatment landscape, the scientists behind the new study say. Read More.

Watch chameleon erupt in color ‘as if uttering her last words’ in her final moments before death

Footage of Labord’s chameleon in last moments of her short life shows her skin burst into ‘chaotic technicolor patterns.’ Read More.

This tiny radioactive battery can last 50 years without recharging

BetaVolt’s BV100 is smaller than a coin and contains a radioactive isotope of nickel that decays into copper and supplies power to a device for up to 50 years. But it probably won’t power your

smartphone anytime soon, an expert suggests. Read More.

Scientists accidentally create world’s tightest, smallest knot

The tangle is known as a trefoil knot and it’s made up of just 54 atoms. Read More.

‘I felt my heart skip a beat’: Researcher discovers dinosaur ‘chicken from hell’ after buying fossil online

A “chicken from hell” dinosaur that lived just before the asteroid struck has been discovered in South Dakota. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Hindu devotees climb the 272 stairs to the Batu Caves temple to make offerings during the Thaipusam festival

Photograph: Mohd Rasfan/AFP/Getty Images

Bogotá, Colombia

Flames rise from a forest fire in the mountains outside the city

Photograph: Guillermo Munoz/AFP/Getty Images

Ankara, Turkey

A person holds newborn rabbits left on a bridge in the city

Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

Market Closes for January 25^th, 2024

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:

📈 On this day in 1853, basic financial disclosure became mandatory for all companies seeking to list their stock for trading on the New York Stock & Exchange Board.

Canada

By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.4% at 21,101.54 in Toronto.

The index advanced to the highest closing level in at least a year.

The move follows the previous session’s little change.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.7%.

Lundin Gold Inc. had the largest increase, rising 4.9%.
Today, 152 of 225 shares rose, while 69 fell; 6 of 11 sectors were higher, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* This month, the index rose 0.7%
* So far this week, the index rose 0.9%, heading for the biggest advance since the week ended Dec. 22
* The index advanced 2.4% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 21% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 0.3% below its 52-week high on Jan. 24, 2024 and 12.9% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.7% in the past 5 days and rose 1.1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.5 on a trailing basis and 15.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.33t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 11.20% compared with 11.31% in the previous session and the average of 10.91% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | 26.4441| 0.7| 32/9
Financials | 22.8924| 0.4| 19/8
Materials | 13.9648| 0.6| 35/15
Utilities | 10.7797| 1.3| 14/1
Industrials | 9.4143| 0.3| 18/8
Consumer Discretionary | 2.2035| 0.3| 9/4
Health Care | -0.0409| -0.1| 1/2
Information Technology | -0.2942| 0.0| 8/2
Real Estate | -1.4359| -0.3| 8/12
Consumer Staples | -3.8551| -0.4| 6/5
Communication Services | -4.3238| -0.5| 2/3
================================================================
| | |Volume VS || Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Canadian Natural Resources | 11.2100| 1.7| -45.1| 0.0
Brookfield Corp | 6.9990| 1.3| 63.8| 3.7
Canadian Pacific | | | |
Kansas | 4.5610| 0.7| -29.6| 1.2
Couche-Tard | -3.9440| -1.0| -26.4| 3.3
Shopify | -6.4040| -0.7| -21.4| 5.2
Cameco | -6.6750| -3.4| -24.0| 8.5

US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders pushed stocks to another all-time high on speculation the Federal Reserve will be able to engineer a soft landing as the US economy remains fairly resilient and inflation shows signs of cooling.
Equities notched their sixth straight day of gains as the latest US gross domestic product data defied forecasts for a recession, bolstering the outlook for Corporate America.

While such strength implies policymakers would be in no rush to cut rates, a closely watched measure of underlying inflation coming in line with the Fed’s 2% target was seen by many as an encouraging signal.
“There are no recession concerns here, and to make matters even better, we don’t see any accompanying blowout growth in prices that are used in the GDP calculation,” said Charles Hepworth, investment director at GAM Investments. “Stronger growth without inflation is what everyone wants.”
The S&P 500 closed near the 4,900 mark.

International Business Machines Corp. soared on a bullish outlook, while Tesla Inc. sank 12% after Elon Musk’s pitch for investors to look past slower sales growth fell flat.

The chorus of Boeing Co. critics grew louder as the head of American Airlines Group Inc. called out the plane-maker over a series of quality lapses.
US 10-year yields dropped five basis points to 4.12%.

Swap contracts continued to fully price in a Fed reduction in May, while increasing the expected total cuts this year to around 140 basis points.

The euro fell after President Christine Lagarde’s muted affirmation that the European Central Bank may begin lowering rates from around mid-2024 was taken by markets as a sign that earlier moves are very much in play.
A survey conducted by 22V Research shows 50% of respondents have lowered their recession expectations since before the December Fed Meeting.

When it comes to prospects for 2024 real GDP growth, most investors surveyed expect it will be in-line or stronger than consensus.
The US economy’s fourth-quarter growth trounced forecasts as cooling inflation fueled consumer spending, capping a surprisingly strong year.

GDP increased at a 3.3% annualized rate.

A closely watched measure of underlying inflation rose 2% for a second straight quarter.
Rob Swanke at Commonwealth Financial Network says the data should provide enough ammo for Fed officials to maintain a dovish stance — even if they keep rates where they are.

To Callie Cox at eToro, while a recession isn’t out of the question, it looks like the Fed is achieving a soft landing.
David Russell at TradeStation says Fed Chair Jerome Powell “can give himself a pat on the back as Goldilocks takes over.”
“It is hard to argue that the economy isn’t strong,” said Chris Zaccarelli at Independent Advisor Alliance. “The stock market will continue to rally as long as the economy stays out of recession and consumers continue to spend – and that is even without the Fed cutting rates. However, if the Fed starts cutting rates, that will be an additional tailwind to this market, which continues to surprise to the upside.”
The market’s resilience suggests that investors are satisfied to see US data resilience despite elevated rates, according to Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com.

They are confident that peak rates have been reached, and policy will eventually loosen — albeit a bit later than initially expected, he added.
The S&P 500 finished at an all-time high for the first time in two years on Friday, marking a crucial milestone in the resurgence of the US stock market.

It’s been a dizzying stretch for equities, triggered by falling inflation and the possibility that the Fed will cut rates in 2024.
With only a few days left for the end of January, the S&P 500 has already blown past the Wall Street consensus over where the index will finish the year.
On Wednesday, the gauge surpassed 4,867, the average level where forecasters in a Bloomberg survey pegged it 11 months from now.
With the US stock market at a record, the obvious question for many investors right now is how much firepower is left in the rally that began last year.

Whenever the S&P 500 has climbed from a bear market to new heights, returns in the subsequent six and 12 months have been handily above average, Bloomberg Intelligence data going back to 1950 showed.
BI’s analysis of market performance after the US stock benchmark hit a fresh high found the median forward six-month return was roughly 9.2%, above the median 6.3% return for all half-year periods going back more than 70 years. The same pattern is seen in forward 12-month performance, with median returns at 15% after a new all-time high versus just 13% in overlapping yearlong time frames.
“The prevailing trend is undeniably bullish, and the markets are currently adhering to a ‘buy-the-dip’ mentality, at least for the time being,” Razaqzada added. “However, there are signs that the rally may be stretching thin at these levels. So, there is the potential for some profit-taking around current levels.”
Elsewhere, oil rose to the highest in eight weeks, propelled by falling US inventories, Chinese stimulus and an attack on a Russian refinery.

Corporate Highlights:
* Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc. and Microsoft Corp. must provide information to the US Federal Trade Commission on their investments and partnerships with artificial intelligence startups Anthropic PBC and OpenAI Inc. as part of an agency study announced Thursday.
* Apple Inc. is embarking on a historic overhaul of its iOS, Safari and App Store offerings in the European Union, aiming to placate regulators set to impose tough new antitrust rules.
* Microsoft Corp. will lay off 1,900 people across its video-game divisions including at Activision Blizzard, which it purchased for $69 billion in an acquisition that closed late last year.
* LVMH sales rose at the end of last year as wealthy shoppers treated themselves to the group’s pricey handbags and Champagne, a sign of resilience at the world’s largest luxury conglomerate.
* American Airlines Group Inc. expects profit this year to beat Wall Street’s estimates as it benefits from strength in demand for international flights and improved operating performance.
* Southwest Airlines Co. again trimmed growth plans for this quarter in response to rising costs and an industrywide glut of flights that’s pulling down fares.
* Alaska Air Group Inc. expects slower growth this year and a financial hit of $150 million after a midair accident led to the grounding of a portion of its Boeing Co. 737 planes.
* PayPal Holdings Inc. rolled out several product enhancements that failed to stem pessimism about the payments firm’s earnings prospects.
* Comcast Corp. reported earnings and revenue that beat analysts’ estimates as broadband customers spent more on pricier services.
* Private Medicare plans that drove years of growth for US health insurers are getting less profitable and may cost seniors more money, Humana Inc.’s results showed, sending shares down across the sector.

Key events this week:
* Japan Tokyo CPI, Friday
* Bank of Japan issues minutes of policy meeting, Friday
* US personal income/spending, PCE deflator, pending home sales, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro fell 0.4% to $1.0839
* The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.2705
* The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 147.74 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.3% to $39,891.13
* Ether rose 0.6% to $2,228.35
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 4.12%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 2.29%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined three basis points to 3.98%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.9% to $77.25 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.3% to $2,019.19 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Alexandra Semenova, Rheaa Rao and Liz Capo McCormick.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann

Sometimes integrity is the subtlest and most effective strategy of all. –John Marshall, 1755-1835.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM

Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808

(C): 250.881.0801

Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895

Fax: 778.430.5828

www.carolannsteinhoff.com