January 23, 2023 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Monday.
January 23, 1997: Madeleine Albright becomes the first woman to serve as United States Secretary of State.
January 23, 1989:  Surrealist painter Salvador Dali died in his native Spain at age 84. Go to article » 

Edouard Manet, b.1832.

Read your Chinese zodiac fortune for the Year of the Rabbit:  During Lunar New Year, many people take a look at these Chinese Zodiac predictions to see what may lie ahead in the coming months. Who knows, maybe yours will be oddly accurate!

Watch this family erupt with excitement as they spot son lost at sea.  A 21-year-old free diver was swept away by a current in Key West, Florida, prompting a critical rescue mission. See the exciting moment he was found.

Radio signal from 8 billion light-years away could reveal the secrets of the universe’s ‘dark age’:  By using warped space-time as a magnifying glass, astronomers have picked up the most distant signal of its kind from a remote galaxy, and it could blow open a window into how our universe formed.   The record-breaking radio frequency signal, picked up by the Giant Metrewave Radio Telescope (GMRT) in India, came from the galaxy SDSSJ0826+5630, located 8.8 billion light-years from Earth, meaning the signal was emitted when the universe was roughly a third of its current age.  Full Story: Live Science (1/20)

Royal tomb discovered near Luxor dates to time when female pharaoh co-ruled ancient Egypt:  Archaeologists in Egypt have discovered a 3,500-year-old royal tomb near Luxor. The tomb was likely constructed at a time when Hatshepsut, a female pharaoh, co-ruled ancient Egypt.   “Partial inscriptions and ceramic evidence suggest this was constructed during the joint-reign of Thutmose III and Hatshepsut,” archaeologists said in a statement.
Full Story: Live Science (1/20)
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

New Delhi, India
Border security force soldiers ride camels during the full dress rehearsal for the upcoming republic day parade
Photograph: Money Sharma/AFP/Getty Images

Zakopane, Poland
Visitors try to find the exit from the Snowlandia winter theme park’s labyrinth
Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Hawaii, US
Mark Healy rides a wave during the Eddie Aikau Big Wave Invitational surfing contest at Waimea Bay on the North Shore of Oahu in Hawaii
Photograph: Brian Bielmann/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for January 23^rd, 2023

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1987: Daily trading volume on the New York Stock Exchange exceeded 300 million for the first time, with 302.4 million shares changing hands
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.6%, or 128.37 to 20,631.58 in Toronto.
The index advanced to the highest closing level since June 8.
Today, information technology stocks led the market higher, as 9 of 11 sectors gained; 159 of 236 shares rose, while 75 fell.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 8.8%.
Ballard Power Systems Inc. had the largest increase, rising 9.7%.
Insights
* This month, the index rose 6.4%
* The index was little changed in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 9% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 7.1% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 15.4% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 1.2% in the past 5 days and rose 5.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.6 on a trailing basis and 13.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.26t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 12.88% compared with 12.79% in the previous session and the average of 13.10% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | 46.5614| 3.8| 12/2
Financials | 32.1919| 0.5| 21/8
Energy | 19.8112| 0.5| 28/11
Industrials | 13.2468| 0.5| 18/8
Consumer Discretionary | 7.4664| 1.0| 12/2
Real Estate | 6.5707| 1.2| 22/1
Utilities | 5.7078| 0.6| 9/7
Materials | 2.2703| 0.1| 21/28
Health Care | 1.8527| 2.3| 7/0
Consumer Staples | -1.6338| -0.2| 6/5
Communication Services | -5.6899| -0.6| 3/3
================================================================
| | |Volume VS | YTD
| Index | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 39.0200| 8.8| 32.2| 25.3
Brookfield Corp | 9.9580| 2.1| -13.8| 16.3
Suncor Energy | 8.0090| 2.0| 18.4| 4.9
Franco-Nevada | -2.2490| -0.9| 31.0| 5.6
Couche-Tard | -2.4780| -0.7| 4.3| 3.7
BCE | -3.9030| -1.0| 3.5| 4.0
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Tech stocks led gains on Wall Street, with earnings for the most-influential segment of the US equity market about to get underway in a test of the S&P 500’s 12% surge from its October low.
Marquee names like Microsoft Corp. and Intel Corp. are set to report results that will help shape the fate of a sector that last year faced a reckoning amid higher rates.
While some traders are bracing for the group’s worst earnings slump since 2016, pessimism has recently faded as tech firms focus on cost cuts and inflation shows signs of easing — with the Nasdaq 100 having its best two-day rally since November.
The latest notable company to announce job cuts to lower expenses was Spotify Technology SA, which climbed on plans to slash about 6% of its employees.
Interestingly enough, despite the positive reaction to the industry’s cost-saving measures, not everyone is convinced that’s a good sign.
Bank of America Corp. strategists including Savita Subramanian note that could herald waning tech demand.
It’s also worth noting that among all tech groups, chipmakers were by far the best performers Monday thanks to a call from Barclays Plc upgrading Advanced Micro Devices Inc. and Qualcomm Inc., which spurred a 5% jump in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.
The S&P 500 crossed its key 4,000 mark — seen by several technical analysts as a make-or-break level that could define the gauge’s direction.
“We’re likely to find out soon whether this latest run is just another one of many false alarms or if it’s really ‘the one’,” according to strategists at Bespoke Investment Group.  “One thing bulls have working in their favor is that following the last unsuccessful test in mid-December, the market didn’t go on to make new lows.”
Now one aspect to keep in mind is that stocks aren’t necessarily cheap at this stage.
In fact, the S&P 500 may look expensive compared with historical levels given that earnings estimates have been falling for a while.
If the US equity benchmark in fact bottomed on Oct. 12, that would be one of highest valuation troughs ever, noted David Bahnsen, chief investment officer of his namesake wealth management firm.
The S&P 500 was trading around 17 times relative to earnings at that time — and bear-market bottom multiples are historically much lower than that, he added.
“Investors should not assume that the easy times in the market are coming back,” Bahnsen said. “We expect enhanced volatility and a focus on cash flow and quality for the foreseeable future.”
To Matt Maley at Miller Tabak + Co., the S&P 500’s current valuations don’t leave “a lot of leeway for disappointments.”
And with higher interest rates, it’s going to be tough for the markets to keep rallying should earnings projections for 2023 come down further, he added.
Early fourth-quarter results show that the companies in the US equity benchmark are on track to miss expectations by 1% after analysts lowered their projections, BofA’s Subramanian wrote.
The recent weakening of economic data alongside the anticipated decline in earnings expectations and weak 2023 guidance are pointing to markets that are likely to move lower, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists led by Marko Kolanovic.  “A recession is currently not priced into equity markets,”  they added.
Optimism around a less hawkish Federal Reserve, China reopening and a weaker dollar is already priced in, according to Morgan Stanley’s strategist Michael Wilson.
Nevertheless, he does expect a stock rally in 2024 following a challenging 2023 as the US economy suffers through an earnings recession.
“Markets have leapt ahead this year, driven by China’s reopening, falling energy prices and slowing inflation,” strategists at BlackRock Investment Institute wrote. “This has spurred hopes of a soft economic landing, plummeting inflation and interest rate cuts. We see markets vulnerable to negative surprises – and unprepared for recession.”
As the Fed enters the blackout period ahead of its Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting, markets have priced in a smaller 25-basis-point hike.
Even as several officials say rates must peak above 5% and stay higher for longer, traders remain skeptical.
They still don’t believe policymakers will go above 5%, and see the Fed cutting rates aggressively by the end of the year, according to Anna Wong at Bloomberg Economics.
Meantime, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she’s encouraged by progress on inflation, with energy prices and supply-chain issues easing across the globe even as the US labor market remains strong.
“Investors should be careful to temper their expectations for premature rate cuts, as the Fed will likely need to keep a restrictive footing on monetary policy throughout the year to fight inflation,” said Jason Pride, chief investment officer of private wealth at Glenmede.
Treasury yields rose and the dollar was little changed.
Key events this week:
* PMIs for US, euro area, UK, Japan, Tuesday
* Richmond Fed Manufacturing, Tuesday
* ECB President Christine Lagarde delivers a video message on “the euro as a guarantee of resilience,” Tuesday
* US MBA mortgage applications, Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity, Wednesday
* US fourth-quarter GDP, new home sales, initial jobless claims, Thursday
* US personal income/spending, PCE deflator, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, pending home sales, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 2.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8%
* The MSCI World index rose 1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro rose 0.1% to $1.0867
* The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.2372
* The Japanese yen fell 0.8% to 130.69 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.9% to $23,030.2
* Ether rose 0.4% to $1,635.31
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 3.52%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 2.21%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 3.36%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
* Gold futures rose 0.2% to $1,948.60 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Vildana Hajric, Isabelle Lee and Peyton Forte.

Have a  lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann

If you want your children to turn out well, spend twice as much time with them, and half as much money. –Abigail Van Buren, 1918-2013.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com