January 2, 2024, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Tuesday.  Happy 2024!

January 2, 1492: Muhammad XII, the last Emir of Granada, surrenders his city to Ferdinand II of Aragon and Isabel of Castile, ending both the Reconquista and centuries of Muslim rule in the Iberiuan peninsula.
January 2, 2008: Oil prices soared to $100 a barrel for the first time.  Go to article >>

Isaac Asimov, author, b. 1920

New Year’s celebrations around the world
Farewell, 2023! See photos of fireworks celebrations around the world as revelers rang in 2024.

CNN Travel names the best places to visit
If traveling is one of your resolutions, these 24 destinations deserve a spot on your bucket list.

Megalosaurus, the first dinosaur discovery
Take a look at a fossilized jawbone belonging to a Megalosaurus, the first dinosaur to be scientifically described and named.

Quadrantid meteor shower to blaze over North America
Up to 120 shooting stars per hour could be visible during a brief peak of the Quadrantid meteor shower — the year’s first meteor shower, coming to North America Jan. 3 and 4. Read More.

Huge archaeology discoveries that may come in 2024
From AI deciphering lost texts to a secret about our human relatives, here are some of the new breakthroughs in archaeology we may see this year. Read More.

What’s the farthest place the Vikings reached?
The Vikings reached as far west as Newfoundland, but did they also venture into Africa, the Middle East and Asia?
Full Story: Live Science (1/1)

The 10 best stargazing events of 2024
The 2024 stargazing guide includes a rare total solar eclipse, two bright comet flybys and three supermoons. Here are all the dates you need to know. Read More.

Space photo of the week: Uranus ‘rings’ in the New Year
The James Webb Space Telescope reveals a stunning new portrait of ice giant Uranus, featuring its frigid rings and 14 of 27 moons. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Breivikeidet, Norway
The northern lights swirl above a Sami camp beyond the Arctic Circle
Photograph: Sergei Gapon/AFP/Getty Images

Fireworks explode over the Sydney Harbour Bridge and Sydney Opera House during New Year’s Eve celebrations in Australia
Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​People celebrate in China’s south-western Chongqing municipality
Photograph: AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for January 2^nd, 2024

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1915, Wall Street had its slowest trading day of the 20th century. Only 23,505 shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange. The lack of interest also meant it was one of the best times to buy. By the end of 1915, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had risen 82%, its biggest annual gain ever.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.4% at 20,872.14 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 1.1% on Dec. 20 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.1%.
Today, information technology stocks led the market lower, as 7 of 11 sectors lost; 154 of 225 shares fell, while 64 rose.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 4.6%. Lightspeed Commerce Inc. had the largest drop, falling 6.8%.
Insights
* The index advanced 7.7% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 24% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1% below its 52-week high on Dec. 27, 2023 and 11.7% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 0.5% in the past 5 days and rose 2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.4 on a trailing basis and 15.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.32t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 10.82% compared with 10.79% in the previous session and the average of 11.17% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | -59.0464| -3.3| 0/10
Financials | -40.9123| -0.6| 4/22
Materials | -7.7488| -0.3| 11/41
Industrials | -5.6672| -0.2| 6/20
Real Estate | -3.3798| -0.7| 6/14
Consumer Discretionary | -2.9626| -0.4| 5/8
Health Care | -1.2385| -2.0| 1/3
Consumer Staples | 0.8927| 0.1| 5/5
Utilities | 0.9048| 0.1| 6/8
Communication Services | 13.6773| 1.8| 3/2
Energy | 19.1747| 0.5| 17/21
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -40.2000| -4.6| 1.3| -4.6
Brookfield Corp | -13.5000| -2.5| -11.2| -2.5
CGI Inc | -4.8950| -2.4| -20.4| -2.4
Canadian Natural Resources | 6.0610| 0.9| -48.3| 0.9
Enbridge | 9.8100| 1.4| -21.2| 1.4
BCE | 10.5300| 3.2| 20.2| 3.2
US
By Cristin Flanagan
(Bloomberg) — Stocks and Treasuries kicked off 2024 on a sour note as last year’s rally stalled and traders reined in their bets on interest-rate cuts.
The Nasdaq 100 index slid 1.7% Tuesday, the benchmark’s biggest drop in two months, as last year’s winners — the tech giants dubbed the Magnificent Seven — slumped.
Apple Inc. fell after an analyst at Barclays Plc warned that iPhone demand is cooling, Nvidia Corp. and Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. also sank.
Yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.94% amid a heavy slate of corporate debt issuance.
PGT Innovations Inc. climbed post market following an unsolicited takeover offer for $41.50 per share.
Bankers are optimistic that mergers and acquisitions will pick up after capping off the worst year for deals in a decade.
The first trading day of the new year brought 2023’s scorching rally to a halt after a more than $8 trillion surge in the S&P 500 last year.
“The new year brings tax-motivated postponed gain-taking and repositioning by portfolio managers after window dressing for their year-end portfolio prints,” said Louis Navellier at Navellier & Associates.
Fundstrat Global Advisors LLC’s Tom Lee, who was among the few to forecast last year’s rally, still expects stocks to do well in 2024.
But, he noted, the first five days of January historically set the tone.
If the first five days are weak, that could negate his bullish call, Lee said.
He expects new highs in January followed by consolidation in the first half.
Oppenheimer Asset Management’s Chief Investment Strategist John Stoltzfus is also bullish on 2024 though he sees US stocks as due for a breather.
“It’s not uncommon for markets to pause to digest a bull run of the magnitude experienced in the fourth quarter just ended,” said Stoltzfus. “In fact it would appear to us to make good sense for markets to pause considering the run-up in stock prices.”
The next earnings season could see the advance resume, he added.
The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, jumped around 6%, one of its biggest advances since Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s pivot last month.
Wall Street’s fear gauge remains at subdued levels.
Traders are awaiting the release of the latest Fed minutes Wednesday.
The tone is expected to be hawkish according to BMO Capital Markets’ Ian Lyngen.
“A dovish surprise, while unlikely, would hold far greater shock value for a market that has moved away from taking the Fed at face value in favor of a more skeptical approach,” the strategist wrote.
Wednesday’s job openings data and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls will also be scanned for signs of weakness in the labor market.
“If Powell is right that inflation can slow further without a sharp increase in unemployment, then the stock and bond rallies are justified,” according to Bloomberg Economics.
“But if traditional, empirical economic regularities hold true, then disinflation won’t be painless, and the peak effect of the Fed’s rate hikes on the labor market are just about hitting,” economists led by Anna Wong wrote.
Kristalina Georgieva, the head of the International Monetary Fund, told CNN International that the US economy is “definitely” headed for a soft landing thanks to the Fed’s “decisiveness” in taming inflation.
The dollar gained 0.7% with almost all emerging-nation currencies trading lower against the greenback.
The yen weakened in thin trading as investors monitored conditions after an earthquake in Japan on Monday.
Bitcoin had climbed above $45,000 for the first time in almost two years Tuesday.
Anticipation is intensifying around the expected US approval for an exchange-traded fund investing directly in the biggest token.
Oil slumped after an early climb amid ongoing shipping disruptions in the Red Sea.
West Texas Intermediate traded near $70 a barrel.
In Asia, sentiment was dented after Chinese President Xi Jinping acknowledged some companies and citizens had endured a difficult 2023 in a rare admission of domestic headwinds facing the country.
Despite persistent weakness in China, some investors consider a slump of almost 60% as a signal to buy Chinese stocks.
Almost a third of 417 respondents to Bloomberg’s latest Markets Live Pulse survey say they will increase their China investments over the next 12 months.

Key events this week:
* Germany unemployment, Wednesday
* US FOMC minutes, ISM Manufacturing, job openings, light vehicle sales, Wednesday
* Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin — an FOMC voter in 2024 — speaks, Wednesday
* China Caixin services PMI, Thursday
* Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI, Thursday
* US initial jobless claims, ADP employment, Thursday
* Eurozone CPI, PPI, Friday
* US nonfarm payrolls/unemployment, factory orders, ISM services index, Friday
* Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin — an FOMC voter in 2024 — speaks, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average was little changed
* The MSCI World index fell 0.8%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.7%
* The euro fell 0.9% to $1.0942
* The British pound fell 0.9% to $1.2617
* The Japanese yen fell 0.8% to 141.98 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.7% to $44,790.73
* Ether rose 0.9% to $2,359.66
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced five basis points to 3.93%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.07%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced 10 basis points to 3.64%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.8% to $70.39 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.2% to $2,058.20 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Alex Nicholson, Joanna Ossinger, Zhu Lin and Tassia Sipahutar.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Grief is the price we pay for love. –Queen Elizabeth II, 1926-2022.

Carolann

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com