January 10, 2023 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Tuesday.
January 10, 2000 America Online agreed to buy Time-Warner for $182 billion. (Time-Warner decided to spin off AOL in 2009.)  Go to article » 

1920: League o9f Nations founded.
1984: US re-establishes full diplomatic relations with Vatican after almost 117 years.

This entire island in the Bahamas is available to rent on Airbnb. A snip at $50,000 a night.

A green comet will appear in the night sky this week, NASA says.  For the first time in 50,000 years, a dazzling green comet will swing by Earth on Thursday. Here’s when you’ll be able to spot it.

The ‘Kraken’ COVID subvariant: What to know about quickly rising omicron descendant:  A new flavor of the omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, was identified in October 2022. In the past several weeks, it has steadily gained prominence in the United States. The subvariant is known as XBB.1.5 but has also been given the unofficial nickname “Kraken,” after the mythical sea monster.
Here’s what we know so far about XBB.1.5 so far.  Full Story: Live Science (1/9)

How does grief affect the brain?  Grief is something nearly everyone will experience at some point in their lives. It can be overwhelming and confusing, and it can make the death of a loved one difficult to navigate. But when someone is experiencing grief, what exactly is happening to their brain?  According to Dr. Lisa M. Shulman, a neurologist at the University of Maryland’s School of Medicine, our brains perceive traumatic loss as a threat to our survival.
Full Story: Live Science (1/8)

The hole in Earth’s ozone layer is on the mend. (h/t Tracy Walsh)
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Randers Dyrehave, Denmark
Deer in the early morning mists in Jutland
Photograph: Ritzau Scanpix/Reuters

Mountain Photo of the Year 2022 – in pictures
The winning entry by Anglesey bookkeeper Kat Lawman is an image shot above the clouds at the top of Garnedd Ugain in Eryri (Snowdonia), that shows Jupiter, Saturn and Venus aligning under the watchful gaze of a wild camper. Kat, who also spends her time as a mountain leader and took up photography as a hobby three years ago, said: ‘It was such a truly earth-moving moment I was reduced to tears. The mountains here in Snowdonia are my life, and my escape … This night in December I managed to get the whole Snowdon massif all to myself, there wasn’t another single person around and this photo will always be the most special one to me’
Photograph: Kat Lawman

Mountain Photo of the Year 2022 – in pictures
The third-place image is also from Snowdonia: a shot showing the Milky Way arching over Llyn Llydaw. Fujifilm ambassador and competition judge Chris Upton said: ‘A fabulous image. So much impact with the arch of the Milky Way and the mist in the background adding an important element to the picture. Technically excellent, perfect exposure, sharp throughout and great composition’
Photograph: Luke Gage
Market Closes for January 10^th, 2023

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1870, John D. Rockefeller, Sr. founded The Standard Oil Co. (Ohio) with $1 million in capital and control of a tenth of the nation’s oil refining.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the third day, climbing 0.2%, or 41.79 to 19,898.86 in Toronto.
The index advanced to the highest closing level since Dec. 13.
Royal Bank of Canada contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.1%.
Nuvei Corp. had the largest increase, rising 8.8%.
Today, 157 of 236 shares rose, while 75 fell; 7 of 11 sectors were higher, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* The index declined 5.6% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 17% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 10.4% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 11.3% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 2.3% in the past 5 days and was little changed in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.1 on a trailing basis and 12.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.21t
* 30-day price volatility little changed to 13.47% compared with
13.47% in the previous session and the average of 13.63% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | 22.6012| 0.9| 39/11
Financials | 21.9208| 0.4| 17/11
Real Estate | 4.8522| 0.9| 19/4
Consumer Discretionary | 2.7131| 0.4| 10/5
Information Technology | 2.0772| 0.2| 13/1
Health Care | 0.6045| 0.8| 4/2
Consumer Staples | 0.4263| 0.1| 4/6
Communication Services | -0.1537| 0.0| 3/2
Energy | -1.3285| 0.0| 22/17
Utilities | -3.4700| -0.4| 7/9
Industrials | -8.4463| -0.3| 19/7
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
RBC | 14.4200| 1.1| 48.0| 4.4
Barrick Gold | 7.9290| 2.6| -53.6| 12.3
Franco-Nevada | 4.2740| 1.7| -11.5| 4.8
Canadian National | -7.0140| -1.0| -28.3| 1.4
Canadian Pacific | -8.9250| -1.3| -26.7| 1.7
Nutrien | -11.1700| -3.0| -21.3| 1.0
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks rose on bets the upcoming consumer price index will show further softening, which could help build the case for the Federal Reserve to slow its pace of rate hikes — even as some officials say it’s too early to declare victory over inflation.
With Jerome Powell’s silence on the outlook for monetary policy at an event earlier Tuesday, the equity market struggled to find direction.
The choppiness gave way to a rebound in afternoon New York trading, with the S&P 500 coming back above its key 3,900 mark.
Treasury two-year US yields pared their advance while the dollar was little changed.
Thursday’s inflation figures are likely to come in cooler than expected, helping stocks extend a bear-market rally, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s sales and trading desk.
While consensus expects December’s CPI to slide to a 6.5% annualized pace, the bank’s team including Andrew Tyler sees an almost two-in-three chance for the data to arrive within 10 basis points of the estimate, with a bias to the soft side.
While Powell didn’t directly comment on the Fed’s next steps at a forum in Stockholm, he did say that “restoring price stability when inflation is high can require measures that are not popular in the short term as we raise rates to slow the economy.”
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said the central bank has more work to do to curb inflation, noting that further tightening is needed.
“You’ve got the Fed that’s continuing to try to rain on everybody’s parade, talking about how interest rates need to go higher,” said Brian Nick, chief investment strategist at Nuveen.
“So that’s the one fly in the ointment — the Fed is still out there trying to slow things down, and the markets are taking every bit of good news and running with it.”
JPMorgan’s chief Jamie Dimon told Fox Business that rate hikes might need to go beyond what’s currently expected, but he’s in favor of a pause to see the full impact of last year’s increases.
Billionaire Paul Tudor Jones likened Powell’s war against inflation to an attempt at a perfect moon landing, saying the Fed chair is facing the most-challenging economic environment in 40 years.
If he succeeds, stocks could climb 7% to 8% this year, but if inflation worsens he’ll need to continue raising rates, increasing the risk of a downturn, Jones told CNBC.
“What the Fed is communicating has been the subject of extensive and exhaustive debate for much of the last year and they’re in a little bit of a tough spot,” said Olga Bitel, global strategist at William Blair.
To Mark Haefele at UBS Global Wealth Management, markets may have moved too quickly to position for an inflection in Fed policy.
That means “conditions are not yet in place for a sustained equity rally,” he added.
Bank of America Corp. clients sold $1.4 billion of US stocks in the biggest weekly outflow since November, the firm’s strategists including Jill Carey Hall wrote.
All three client groups — hedge funds, retail and institutional investors — were net sellers.
As the critical earnings season is due to begin on Friday, sentiment among analysts on the broader S&P 500 has soured to a point seen few times before.
Over the past three months, analysts’ net downgrades to  profit estimates for S&P 500 stocks over the next two years have risen to 32% of total changes, data compiled by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. show.
Outside of 2008 and the pandemic rout of 2020, that’s the most negative reading since Goldman started tracking the data in 1998.
Key events this week:
* ECB Governing Council members speak at Euromoney conference in Vienna, Wednesday
* US CPI, initial jobless claims, Thursday
* St Louis Fed President James Bullard at Wisconsin Bankers Association virtual event, Thursday
* Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin speaks at VBA/VA Chamber, Thursday
* China trade, Friday
* US University of Michigan consumer sentiment, Friday
* Citigroup, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo report earnings, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.9%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.0736
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.2150
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 132.24 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.7% to $17,465.79
* Ether rose 1.7% to $1,340.62
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced seven basis points to 3.61%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced eight basis points to 2.31%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 3.56%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.5% to $74.97 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 0.2% to $1,882.10 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Peyton Forte, Isabelle Lee, Vildana Hajric and John McCorry.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann

My idea of courtesy is this: It is the habit of respecting other people’s feelings under all circumstances;
the habit of going out of one’s way to help any less fortunate person whenever and wherever possible;
and last, but by no means least, the habit of controlling selfishness in all its forms. – Andrew Carnegie, 1835-1919.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com