February 2, 2023 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday Eve.  It’s Groundhog Day.
Imbolc: Wiccan Feast of Torches.

February 2, 1653 New Amsterdam – now New York City – was incorporated.  Go to article » 
February 2, 1913: Grand Central Station opens in New York City.

James Joyce, b.1882
Ayn Rand, b. 1905.
W.H. Auden, b. 1907

Australia’s new $5 note won’t feature King Charles.  The bill will feature Australia’s Indigenous population instead, the country’s central bank announced today.

Punxsutawney Phil has mad skills.

A peek inside a 319-million-year-old brain

Only filmed interview with Georges Lemaitre, ‘father of the Big Bang,’ rediscovered after 60 years:  The only known video interview with Belgian physicist Georges Lemaître, widely considered the “father of the Big Bang,” talking about the birth of the universe has been rediscovered almost 60 years after it was lost.
Lemaître (1894-1966) was the first person to propose that the movement of galaxies away from Earth was a sign that the universe was expanding, which was later observationally confirmed by the American astronomer Edwin Hubble. Full Story: Live Science (2/1)

Elaborate underground embalming workshop discovered at Saqqara: Archaeologists at Saqqara have finally identified the many embalming ingredients used to mummify the dead in ancient Egypt.
They also deciphered how those different ingredients — many of which came from distant lands — were used.  Full Story: Live Science (2/1)

Stockpile of 2,000-year-old gemstones found in Roman bathhouse drain:  Archaeologists recently uncovered a stockpile of 2,000-year-old glittering gemstones clogging the drain of a Roman bathhouse near Hadrian’s Wall in Carlisle, England.  The 30 engraved, semi-precious stones — known as intaglios — likely dropped out of the ring settings worn by bathers who took to the waters sometime during the second and third centuries A.D., The Guardian reported.  Full Story: Live Science (2/1)

“Tom Brady announced he’s decided to retire, but for real this time. Every year on the first of February, Tom Brady comes out of the locker room to announce his retirement. Then if he sees his shadow, he goes right back to the N.F.L.” — JIMMY KIMMEL

“First, they searched near Biden’s Corvette, now they’re searching his beach house. I’m starting to think Biden created this whole scandal as a humblebrag,” Jimmy Fallon said.
“[imitating Biden] ‘Why don’t you check by my infinity pool? Maybe there’s something behind the Picasso, I don’t know.’” — JIMMY FALLON

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Washington DC, US
Dancers of the United Ukrainian Ballet dance during their opening performance at the Kennedy Center
Photograph: Stefani Reynolds/AFP/Getty Images

Abu Rakah, Saudi Arabia
A donkey crosses the road while the peloton is competing during Stage 3, a 159.2km stage
Photograph: Alex Broadway/Getty Images

Jishou, China
Tourists visit the illuminated Qianzhou ancient city to celebrate lunar new year, the year of the rabbit
Photograph: VCG/Getty Images
Market Closes for February 2nd, 2023

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1998, less than three years after breaking the 500 mark, the S&P 500 closed above 1000 for the first time, finishing the day at 1001.27
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite declined slightly to 20,740.44 in Toronto.
Today, energy stocks led the market lower, as 5 of 11 sectors lost; 121 of 236 shares fell, while 111 rose.
Suncor Energy Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.8%. Canada Goose Holdings Inc. had the largest drop, falling 23.7%.
Insights
* So far this week, the index was little changed
* The index declined 2.9% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index lost 9.3% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 6.6% below its 52-week high on April 5, 2022 and 16% above its low on Oct. 13, 2022
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.5 on a trailing basis and 13.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year * The index’s dividend yield is 3.1% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.3t
* 30-day price volatility little changed to 10.91% compared with 10.91% in the previous session and the average of 12.85% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | -52.3428| -1.5| 3/36
Materials | -50.2862| -1.9| 11/39
Communication Services | -14.3506| -1.4| 1/4
Consumer Staples | -9.5170| -1.2| 1/10
Consumer Discretionary | -3.4305| -0.4| 8/7
Health Care | 0.7767| 0.9| 6/1
Real Estate | 7.2628| 1.3| 17/5
Utilities | 7.8382| 0.9| 10/5
Industrials | 26.8288| 1.0| 23/3
Financials | 36.2120| 0.6| 20/8
Information Technology | 40.3853| 3.0| 11/3
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Suncor Energy | -15.9300| -3.8| 49.9| 2.2
Canadian Natural Resources | -12.7700| -2.1| -16.9| 2.4
BCE | -11.6500| -2.9| 117.7| 3.2
Canadian Pacific | 12.5900| 1.9| 43.9| 4.6
Brookfield Corp | 15.7800| 3.3| 21.0| 19.4
Shopify | 37.7900| 6.9| 28.8| 51.9
US
By Robert Brand
(Bloomberg) — US stocks rallied for a third day as traders anticipate the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle may be nearing its peak.
Earnings that came in after hours dented the euphoria, with the Invesco QQQ Trust, the biggest ETF tracking the Nasdaq 100, dropping more than 1%.
Amazon.com Inc., Alphabet Inc. and Apple Inc. dropped in late trading after reporting results.
Ford Motor Co. and Starbucks Corp. also retreated after giving an update on last quarter’s performance.
During Thursday’s regular trading session, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 was boosted by Meta Platforms Inc.’s biggest surge since 2013, fueled by the company’s earnings and upbeat outlook.
The index narrowly averted stepping into a bull market form its December low as it pared some of its gains in the afternoon.
The S&P 500 closed up more than 1%.
Both indexes rallied the most in the last three sessions since November.
Treasuries pared earlier gains, with the 10-year yield around 3.40%.
A dollar index rose the most in nearly a month.
Risk assets had been bolstered since late Wednesday, when Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank has made progress in its inflation battle even as labor-market data continues to show tightness that could add to wage pressures.
The Labor Department releases its hiring report for January on Friday.
“Data will drive the Fed’s intent,” said Dennis DeBusschere, founder of 22V Research. “Payroll on Friday needs to confirm lower wages or internals will flip. We are still watching data.”
Investors across the globe have been cheering what they perceive as varying degrees of dovish tilts from central banks across the globe.
Powell dodging a question about financial conditions easing recently fueled optimism among US investors who had been prepared for him to push back against the recent rally in risk assets.
Euphoria intensified after the Bank of England raised rates by half a point but indicated that its tightening cycle is drawing to a close.
And while the European Central Bank remained somewhat hawkish, traders were heartened when President Christine Lagarde acknowledged disinflation.
“After the Fed and Bank of England both hinted at being close to the peak in their cycles, today’s meeting suggests the ECB is comfortable that it is also close to the end of its monetary tightening,” said Steve Ryder,  senior portfolio
manager at Aviva Investors. “We believe this peak tightening backdrop will continue to reduce volatility in government bonds over the coming months and make for an attractive income opportunity.”
Meanwhile, positioning in US swaps markets assumes the Fed is getting closer to cutting rates as traders bet that economic conditions are likely to keep it from the additional rate increases that policy makers still anticipate.
“While the Fed slowed its pace of rate hikes, there is still plenty of uncertainty on the trajectory of inflation and how its tightening of monetary policy will affect economic growth and earnings this year,” said Brad Bernstein, a
Philadelphia-based managing director at UBS Wealth Management.   However, investors will now shift their focus to big-tech earnings, he said.  “Guidance from big-tech earnings is likely to set the tone and direction of markets in the near-term,” he said.
Key events this week:
* Earnings Thursday include: Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, Qualcomm
* Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI, PPI, Friday
* US unemployment, nonfarm payrolls, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.5% as of 4:02 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 3.6%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.9%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.4%
* The euro fell 0.7% to $1.0913
* The British pound fell 1.1% to $1.2236
* The Japanese yen rose 0.2% to 128.72 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.8% to $23,865.01
* Ether rose 2.8% to $1,680.96
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 3.40%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined 20 basis points to 2.08%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined 30 basis points to 3.01%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.7% to $75.85 a barrel
* Gold futures fell 0.8% to $1,926.30 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Tassia Sipahutar and Brett Miller.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
There ain’t nothing but one thing wrong with every one of us, and that’s selfishness.-Will Rogers, 1879-1935.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com