Dear Friends,
Tangents: Happy Monday.
December 8, 1980: John Lennon is shot and killed outside his New York City apartment, shocking the world and ending an era of music history.
December 8, 1993: President Bill Clinton signed into law the North American Free Trade Agreement.
December 8th:
Horace, writer, b. 65 BCE.
Mary, Queen of Scots, b.1542.
Diego Rivera, artist, b. 1886.
James Thurber, writer, b. 1894.
Jim Morrison, musician, b. 1943.
Kim Bassinger, actress, b. 1953.
Sinead O’Connor, musician, b.1966.
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This year’s royal Christmas card is a nod to love
Buckingham Palace released King Charles III and Queen Camilla’s official 2025 Christmas card, featuring the couple strolling arm in arm.
Video: Window washers left dangling 15 stories above the ground
Watch as this high-rise mishap turns into a real pane in the neck.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Snappily ever after: Sondheim’s fairytale musical Into the Woods – in pictures
The Bridge theatre in London presents Stephen Sondheim and James Lapine’s classic this Christmas. Take a closer look – and revisit past revivals
Jo Foster as Jack in Into the Woods at the Bridge theatre, London.
Photograph: Tristram Kenton/the Guardian
Bridgwater, England
Construction continues at Hinkley Point C in Somerset as more than 14,000 people work around the clock to deliver Britain’s first nuclear power station in more than 30 years
Photograph: EDF/PA
Jiangsu, China
Tourists visit the blooming Metasequoia forest in Huanghai forest park in Yancheng
Photograph: Costfoto/NurPhoto/Shutterstock
Market Closes for December 8th, 2025
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| Dow Jones |
47739.32 | -215.67 |
| -0.45% | ||
| S&P 500 | 6846.51 | -23.89 |
| -0.35% | ||
| NASDAQ | 23545.91 | -32.22 |
| -0.14% | ||
| TSX | 31169.97 | -141.44 |
| -0.45% |
International Markets
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| NIKKEI | 50581.94 | +90.07 |
| +0.18% | ||
| HANG SENG |
25765.36 | -319.72 |
| -1.23% | ||
| SENSEX | 85102.69 | -609.68 |
| -0.71% | ||
| FTSE 100* | 9645.09 | -21.92 |
| -0.23% |
Bonds
| Bonds | % Yield | Previous % Yield |
| CND. 10 Year Bond |
3.423 | 3.415 |
| CND. 30 Year Bond |
3.847 | 3.854 |
| U.S. 10 Year Bond |
4.1643 | 4.1351 |
| U.S. 30 Year Bond |
4.8019 | 4.7918 |
| BOC Close | Today | Previous |
| Canadian $ | 0.7218 | 0.7237 |
| US $ |
1.3852 | 1.3816 |
| Euro Rate 1 Euro= |
Inverse | |
| Canadian $ | 0.6202 | 1.6121 |
| US $ |
0.8592 | 1.1637 |
Commodities
| Gold | Close | Previous |
| London Gold Fix |
4243.00 | 4243.00 |
| Oil | ||
| WTI Crude Future | 58.88 | 60.08 |
Market Commentary:
The smart investor must know the difference between what is temporarily undervalued and what is permanently undervalued. -John Templeton, 1912-2008.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the second day, dropping 0.5%, or 141.44 to 31,169.97 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.4%.
Curaleaf Holdings Inc. had the largest drop, falling 6.6%.
Today, 134 of 212 shares fell, while 72 rose; 9 of 11 sectors were lower, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 26%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* This quarter, the index rose 3.8%
* The index advanced 21% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.2% below its 52-week high on Dec. 5, 2025 and 40.2% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 4.2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.2 on a trailing basis and 19.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.97t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 14.59% compared with 14.53% in the previous session and the average of 15.18% over the past month
Index
Materials | -101.2756| -1.9| 7/43
Energy | -19.7247| -0.4| 10/27
Information Technology| -8.3728| -0.3| 5/4
Consumer Staples | -8.0920| -0.8| 4/6
Communication Services| -6.8237| -1.1| 0/5
Consumer Discretionary| -4.8196| -0.5| 4/5
Utilities | -4.4482| -0.4| 4/10
Real Estate | -2.9623| -0.6| 7/12
Health Care | -1.2865| -1.5| 0/4
Industrials | 5.2974| 0.2| 18/9
Financials | 11.0734| 0.1| 13/9
Shopify | -26.4600| -1.4| 15.9| 43.6
Agnico Eagle Mines | Ltd | -18.4200| -2.2| 20.9| 103.0
Barrick Mining | -15.5100| -2.3| 39.2| 148.9
Fairfax Financial | 16.0100| 4.7| 90.5| 21.6
RBC | 17.0100| 0.8| 70.1| 30.7
Celestica | 18.5000| 5.1| 20.6| 256.2
MT Newswires:
The Toronto Stock Exchange fell for a second-straight session on Monday on fading expectations for an interest-rate cut this week from the Bank of Canada.
The S&P Composite Index closed down 141.44 points to 31,169.97, continuing to drop off last Thursday’s record high of 31,477.57.
Most sectors were lower, with communication services, health care and materials leading the decliners.
The Bank of Canada will meet on Wednesday to deliver its latest interest-rate decision, with the central bank widely expected to stand pat.
"The Bank of Canada is set to leave its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%, after declaring in October that it is "at about the right level" to keep inflation near target and help the economy through a structural adjustment.
Forecasters unanimously expect a hold and OIS markets see no chance of a cut," National Bank Economics wrote.
"After October’s rate cut, many were skeptical the BoC easing cycle was over. But implied cut odds were gradually-and then abruptly pared after stronger-than-expected jobs, inflation and GDP data."
Economists see the central bank’s decision coming after last week’s report showing unexpectedly strong November employment gains and after a rise in third-quarter GDP that exceeded forecasts, showing growth continued amid the U.S. tariff battles.
With the economy advancing, there are some expectations the BoC’s rate-cutting cycle is complete, and its next move could be a hike.
"There is unlikely to be a significant market reaction to the (stand-pat) decision, although risks like in the hawkish direction given that the unemployment rate has fallen sharply over the last two months.
As he did in October, Governor Macklem is likely to stress the implications that flow from lower potential output growth on the output gap and policy," David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie Group, wrote.
"Our forecast for the BoC is that the rate cutting cycle is complete.
As we outlined in our team’s 2026 Global Economic and Market Outlook, we believe the next move will be a rate hike with our baseline timing for this in 4Q26."
On commodities, gold traded lower late afternoon on Monday as markets await Wednesday’s interest-rate decision from the Federal Reserve’s policy committee.
Gold for February delivery was last seen down US$21.50 to US$4,221.50 per ounce.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed lower on Monday but remained within a narrow range as the attention of traders switches to high supply and away from geopolitical risks.
WTI crude oil for January delivery closed down US$1.20 to settle at US$58.88 per barrel, while February Brent oil was last seen down US$1.31 to US$62.43
US
By Cristin Flanagan
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street anxiety halted a four-day rally in US stocks while Treasuries joined a global bond slump ahead of the Federal Reserve’s final meeting of 2025.
While an interest-rate cut is all but certain, traders are growing anxious about the pace of next year’s cuts.
The S&P 500 slid 0.3% Monday after the equities benchmark closed within spitting distance of an all-time high.
A busy merger Monday failed to bolster the mood after President Donald Trump raised potential antitrust concerns on Netflix Inc.’s planned takeover of the Hollywood studios and streaming business of Warner Bros.
Discovery Inc. and Paramount Skydance Corp. stepped in with its own hostile bid.
Uncertainty over the pace of easing in 2026 and wariness about the sustainability of an AI-driven rally tempered sentiment.
US stocks had rebounded in recent weeks after some Fed officials signaled, they intend to cut rates for a third straight time on Wednesday.
“Expectations for a quarter-point rate cut have been cemented by continued signs of weakness in the employment market, although it’s certain to be one of the most contentious rate decisions in recent history,” according to BMO’s Ian Lyngen.
Kevin Hassett, a top candidate to take over the role of Fed chair, said it would be irresponsible for the Fed to lay out a plan for where it aims to take interest rates over the next six months.
The White House National Economic Council Director emphasized the importance of following the economic data in a CNBC interview Monday.
Unease that inflation remains too high has also caused divisions among Fed officials, in a rift that’s been exacerbated by the lack of fresh data during the shutdown.
After this week’s likely cut, money markets are leaning toward two more moves by the end of 2026, down from three signaled barely a week ago.
Evercore ISI’s Julian Emanuel says December will bring a season of surprises for investors, while “a divided FOMC makes any pronouncement far less credible than usual.”
US bonds have been on the back foot of late, closing out their worst week in eight months last week amid jitters over the pace of future rate cuts.
Economic data and officials’ comments suggest Wednesday’s rate decision is unlikely to be unanimous, with dissent expected from both hawks and doves.
US Treasuries extended losses, with the 10-year yield rising around three basis points to 4.16%.
“Labor market weakness, whether due to a downshift in the ‘natural rate of breakeven job growth’ from restrictive immigration policies or because the economy is actually slowing could cause Powell to sound more dovish,” Emanuel wrote.
What Bloomberg Strategists Say…
“Monday has been the worst day of the week for Treasuries over both the long run — since 1990 — and in 2025.
Today’s price action seems to be living up to that pattern of behavior, not only in the US but elsewhere.
Since the start of 2022, the US 10-year yield has risen some 2.5% on Mondays and gone largely nowhere on the other days of the week.”
— Cameron Crise, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.
Looking ahead to the expected end of the Fed’s easing cycle in 2026, Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley’s wealth management arm, says investors will need to pivot to the theme of “fiscal dominance,” where monetary policy takes a backseat to government spending concerns.
“As investors digest the consequences, potential implications include a steeper yield curve, a 10-year Treasury yield anchored above 4%, higher inflation, wider term premiums and further US dollar debasement,” she said.
“This new regime supports positive stock-bond correlations, boosting the need for diversification in real assets, international securities and alternatives.”
Europe underperformed in a global bond market slump after the European Central Bank’s Isabel Schnabel became the first senior official to suggest with any certainty that European rates have reached a floor.
“The tone of Chair Powell’s press conference and accompanying statement will be critical,” wrote Deutsche Bank AG strategist Jim Reid.
“We expect Powell to emphasize that the hurdle for further cuts in early 2026 is high, signaling a near- term pause. This guidance will be key to maintaining credibility.”
For stocks, interviews with 39 investment managers across the US, Asia and Europe showed that a vast majority of allocators were still positioning for a risk-on environment through next year.
The thrust of the bet is that resilient global growth, further developments in artificial intelligence, accommodative policy and fiscal stimulus will deliver outsize returns.
Fabien Benchetrit, head of target allocation for France and southern Europe at BNP Paribas Asset Management, said he remains bullish on 2026 but isn’t planning to increase his stock exposure before year-end.
“Like other market participants, we’ve had a good year, and it doesn’t make much sense to do it when liquidity typically dries up in the last two weeks of December,” he said.
“In terms of AI, 2025 was all about capex, but 2026 will be about these investments delivering revenues, profits and productivity gains.”
In Asian markets, shares in mainland China led gains as the Communist Party’s Politburo made boosting domestic demand its top priority for next year.
The yen fell after a magnitude-7.6 quake struck off Japan’s northeast coast.
Earlier, Japanese bond yields rose across the curve after data showed that the economy shrank in the three months through September, giving some justification for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s stimulus package announced last month.
The figures add an element of complexity to the Bank of Japan’s policy decision next week, but likely won’t derail it from its gradual hiking path.
Corporate News:
* International Business Machines Corp. is buying Confluent Inc. for about $9.3 billion, marking one of its largest takeovers yet and a major bet on enterprise software that artificial intelligence tools need.
* US President Donald Trump raised potential antitrust concerns around Netflix Inc.’s planned $72 billion acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery Inc., noting that the market share of the combined entity may pose problems.
* Paramount Skydance Corp. took its bidding for Warner Bros. public with an offer of $30 a share in cash, topping Netflix’s offer of $27.75 in cash and stock.
* Shares in CRH Plc., Carvana Co. and Comfort Systems USA Inc. rallied after S&P Dow Jones Indices said they will join the S&P 500 Index before trading opens Dec. 22.
* President Trump said he would approve an executive order this week on artificial intelligence aimed at limiting state-level policies regulating the technology.
* Unilever Plc’s spinoff The Magnum Ice Cream Co. was valued lower than some analysts expected in its debut on Monday, as the world’s biggest ice cream company looks to revive its performance as a standalone firm.
* Pop Mart International Group Ltd. shares dropped the most in over six weeks amid renewed concern that the Chinese toymaker’s US sales growth momentum is slowing.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.3% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.2%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.3%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%
* The euro was little changed at $1.1638
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3325
* The Japanese yen fell 0.4% to 155.94 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.6% to $90,754.92
* Ether rose 1.5% to $3,133.03
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 4.17%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 2.86%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 4.53%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2% to $58.86 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.1% to $4,191.92 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Andre Janse van Vuuren, Levin Stamm, Joe Easton and Julien Ponthus.
Have a lovely evening.
Be magnificent!
As ever,
Carolann
What you do makes a difference, and you have to decide what kind of difference you want to make. –Jane Goodall, 1934-2025.
Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828