December 6, 2024, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.
St. Nicholas Day, Europe.

December 6, 1865: 13^th amendment ratified; slavery abolished.
December 6, 1973: House minority leader Gerald R. Ford was sworn in as vice president, succeeding Spiro T. Agnew, who had resigned after pleading no contest to income tax evasion.  Go to article
December 6,1962: Andy Warhol’s first solo exhibition opens at Stable Gallery, NYC.

Ira Gershwin, lyricist, b.1896.
Alfred Eisenstaedt, photographer, b. 1898.
Dave Brubeck, jazz musician, b. 1920.
Macy Gray, singer, b. 1969.

This watch was carved from a meteorite that hit Earth a million years ago
A luxury timepiece was sculpted from part of the Muonionalusta meteorite, the remains of which were first discovered in Sweden.

Former ‘SNL’ cast members reveal how little they got paid
Pete Davidson, who appeared on “Saturday Night Live” from 2014 to 2022, recently said he was paid around $3,000 an episode. Other cast members are also speaking out and joking about their compensation.

LA Times owner plans to add AI-powered ‘bias meter’ on news stories
The owner of the Los Angeles Times plans to implement an AI-powered “bias meter” on the paper’s news articles to provide readers with “both sides” of a story. Read why the move is sparking newsroom backlash.

White House shares photos of 2024 holiday decorations
The theme of this year’s decorations is a “season of peace and light,” the Office of the First Lady announced this week. View photos of the festive displays at the White House.

Rare gold ‘Brutus’ coin minted after Julius Caesar’s murder is up for auction
An extremely rare gold coin featuring Brutus, who helped spearhead Julius Caesar’s assassination, is up for auction in December. Read More.

Massive magnitude 7 earthquake strikes off California coast
A magnitude 7 earthquake struck off the coast of Petrolia, California on Thursday (Dec. 5). Read More.

A third of Earth’s species could become extinct by 2100 if climate change isn’t curbed
An analysis of research on most known species around the world finds climate change puts many species at risk of extinction, and the risk increases with more global warming. Read More.

Large language models can be squeezed onto your phone — rather than needing 1000s of servers to run — after breakthrough
Running massive AI models locally on smartphones or laptops may be possible after a new compression algorithm trims down their size — meaning your data never leaves your device. The catch is that it might drain your battery in an hour. Read More.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Paris, France
The light show rehearsal on the facade of the Notre Dame cathedral, five-and-a-half years after a fire ravaged the Gothic masterpiece, on the eve of reopening ceremonies in Paris.
Photograph: Sarah Meyssonnier/Reuters

Montreal, Canada
A cyclist braves snowy conditions in Quebec
Photograph: Serkan Senturk/ZUMA/Shutterstock

Water category third prize winner, Jelly Blubber Split.
‘An unusually large group (smack) of jellyfish were in Cabbage Tree Bay. This split image captures the jelly blubbers with Shelly Beach headland in the background.’
Photograph: Peter McGee/TNC Photo Contest 2024
Market Closes for December 6, 2024

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1877, Thomas Edison, after turning a crank and hollering “Mary had a little lamb,” made the world’s first recording of a human voice. When a technical assistant played back the recording, he cried in astonishment, “Gott in Himmel!” or “God in Heaven!”
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite advanced slightly to 25,691.80 in Toronto.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 4.7%.
BRP Inc. had the largest increase, rising 6.9%.
Today, 62 of 219 shares rose, while 155 fell; 6 of 11 sectors were higher, led by information technology stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 23%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* This quarter, the index rose 7%
* So far this week, the index was little changed
* The index advanced 27% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 33% in the same period * The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 27.7% above its low on Dec. 13, 2023
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.7 on a trailing basis and 17.8 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.05t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 8.19% compared with 8.21% in the previous session and the average of 8.50% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Information Technology | 69.9784| 2.7| 8/2
Financials | 32.1990| 0.4| 12/14
Industrials | 2.8480| 0.1| 14/13
Consumer Discretionary | 2.0013| 0.2| 3/8
Communication Services | 0.1150| 0.0| 4/1
Health Care | 0.0304| 0.0| 1/2
Utilities | -0.0773| 0.0| 4/11
Real Estate | -2.5065| -0.5| 4/16
Consumer Staples | -4.6849| -0.5| 1/9
Materials | -27.5886| -0.9| 8/42
Energy | -60.5645| -1.4| 3/37
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | 63.4000| 4.7| -30.7| 62.4
Bank of Montreal | 33.7000| 4.7| 16.7| 11.6
Intact Financial | 6.5780| 2.0| -37.9| 34.5
Enbridge | -8.8540| -0.9| -35.6| 28.0
RBC | -12.9000| -0.7| -27.5| 33.0
Canadian Natural Resources | -14.6200| -2.1| 60.9| 5.2
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — The world’s biggest stock market hit all-time highs after US jobs data spurred bets on a December Federal Reserve rate cut.
Equities extended this week’s advance, with the S&P 500 notching its 57th closing record in 2024.
This year’s surge is approaching 30%, with the American benchmark on pace for its best annual return since 2019.
Shorter-dated Treasuries — which are more sensitive to imminent policy moves — outperformed the rest of the curve.
Swap traders priced in about 20 basis points worth of easing at the Fed’s December meeting.
US hiring picked up and the unemployment rate edged higher, pointing to a moderating labor market rather than one that’s significantly deteriorating.
To Bret Kenwell at eToro, traders needed a reassuring jobs report — and that’s essentially what they’ve got.
“Investors want to feel that the jobs market is on solid footing,” he said. “A dip in the unemployment rate would have been a nice touch, but nevertheless this should reassure investors that the labor market isn’t teetering on a cliff.
The market still favors a rate cut from the Fed later this month, and this report may not change that expectation.”
While the snapshot of the labor market nudged the Fed closer to lowering rates, it didn’t quite seal the deal — with key inflation data due next week.
“We still need to pass the ‘inflation check’ before we can be confident December is close to a lock,” said Krishna Guha at Evercore.
The S&P 500 rose 0.2% to around 6,090.
The Nasdaq 100 added 0.9%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.3%.
Meta Platforms Inc. and Alphabet Inc. climbed as TikTok’s Chinese parent company faces a ban in the US if it doesn’t meet a deadline to sell the app.
Nvidia Corp. weighed on chipmakers, with Qualcomm Inc. also down as Apple Inc. prepares a modem rollout that will replace components from its longtime partner.
Treasury 10-year yields declined three basis points to 4.15%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%.
To Josh Jamner at ClearBridge Investments, the “just right” labor-market report should be a benefit to risk assets at the margin.
“This jobs report came out right in the ‘Goldilocks’ zone,” he said. “With things more or less steady, the Fed should be in a position to continue to ease monetary policy over the next several months, and recent comments suggest the pace at which they will do so will be more gradual in 2025.”
The rise in the unemployment rate should give the Fed opportunity to cut in December, but if they do, the Fed will likely pause in January unless inflation stats decelerate meaningfully, according to Jeffrey Roach at LPL Financial.
Recent data has signaled a possible stall in inflation’s descent toward the Fed’s 2% target, raising the stakes for next week’s Consumer Price Index.
The figures are expected to show core inflation, which excludes the volatile categories of food and energy, remained stubborn in November, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
“U-rate gives no cause for a pause,” said Michael Feroli at JPMorgan Chase & Co. “While there is still another CPI report next week, we think it would need to be a very large surprise to change the Committee’s thinking.”
Fed Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said the labor market appears largely stable despite a bumpy series of data.
His Cleveland counterpart Beth Hammack noted policymakers are “at or near” the point where the central bank should slow the pace of rate reductions.
Separate data showed US consumer sentiment hit the highest since April, while year-ahead inflation expectations picked up.
“Given the positive backdrop of strong economic growth, a healthy labor market, and inflation that is relatively contained, the Fed can keep cutting rates and that should allow the bull market to run into the end of the year and into early next year, noted Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management.
Continued and broadening profit growth and a strong economy can keep driving US equities higher in 2025 despite lofty valuations after two banner years for the S&P 500, according to strategists at HSBC Holdings Plc led by Nicole Inui.
The firm set a target for US equity benchmark at 6,700 for next year.
“Consecutive years of double-digit returns is not unusual especially in times with steady macro conditions,” she wrote.
A powerful rally in US stocks as well as cryptocurrencies has left the asset classes looking frothy, according to Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett.
BofA’s Hartnett said there’s a high risk of “overshoot” in early 2025 if the S&P 500 nears 6,666.
The bank’s bull-and-bear indicator shows no sign yet of exuberance among global investors.

Corporate Highlights:
* Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Khan and Assistant Attorney General Jonathan Kanter should look into allegations around FanDuel Inc. and DraftKings Inc.’s conduct related to competition, senators say, according to a letter posted on X.
* Lululemon Athletica Inc. edged up its full-year outlook on strong sales overseas, a sign the upscale activewear brand is fending off upstart competitors and navigating slower growth in consumer spending.
* DocuSign Inc., a maker of electronic-signature software, boosted its revenue forecast for the full year. Analysts were positive about the early contract renewals.
* Petco Health and Wellness Co. reported third-quarter adjusted Ebitda that came ahead of estimates. Morgan Stanley said there were signs of stabilization in the business, while Citi highlighted the comparable sales beat.
* Smith & Wesson Brands Inc., a gun maker, reported second-quarter adjusted earnings per share that missed estimates.
* Ulta Beauty Inc., a cosmetics retailer, increased its annual projections for comparable sales and earnings per share  following a stronger-than-anticipated third quarter.
* Victoria’s Secret & Co. raised its outlook after reporting third-quarter sales that topped Wall Street expectations, saying shoppers had an early positive response to its holiday merchandise.
* Aviva Plc reached a preliminary agreement to buy Direct Line Insurance Group Plc for £3.6 billion ($4.6 billion) in a deal that would create the UK’s largest motor insurer.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.9%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.2%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2%
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0564
* The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.2739
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 149.96 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.6% to $101,607.32
* Ether rose 5% to $4,054.23
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.15%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.11%
* Britain’s 10-year yield was little changed at 4.28%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.6% to $67.19 a barrel
* Spot gold was little changed

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
Have a wonderful weekend everyone.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
Civilizations die from suicide, not by murder. –Arnold Toynbee, 1889-1975.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com