December 23, 2024, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Carolann is away from the office; I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

December 23, 1482: The Peace of Atrecht (now Arras) concluded between Louis XI of France and Maximilian of Austria, ending the War of the Burgundian Succession
December 23, 1783: George Washington resigned as commander-in-chief of the Army and retired to his home at Mount Vernon, Va. Go to article
December 23, 1888: Vincent van Gogh cuts off his left ear with a razor, after argument with fellow painter Paul Gauguin, and sends to a female courtesan for safe keeping

Do black holes really evaporate — and how do we know?
In 1974, Stephen Hawking proposed that black holes could evaporate. But do we understand how this might happen? Read more.

James Webb telescope solves 20-year-old Hubble conundrum — and it could finally explain why the universe’s oldest planets exist
The James Webb Space Telescope has confirmed 20-year-old Hubble observations that could finally explain how ancient stars can host massive planets.

NASA’s Parker Solar Probe will reach its closest-ever point to the sun on Christmas Eve
NASA’s record-breaking Parker Solar Probe will smash its own personal bests for proximity to the sun and fastest speed by a human-made object when it whizzes past our star on Christmas Eve (Dec. 24). It is unlikely to get significantly closer to the sun before the end of its mission.

Oldest sinew bowstrings ever found in Europe have been hiding in Spain’s ‘Bat Cave’ for 7,000 years
The bowstrings were found with wood-and-reed arrows and were used by the first European farmers. Read more.

1,500-year-old tomb in Peru holds human sacrifices, including strangled son next to father’s remains, genetic analysis reveals
A genetic analysis of six people buried in a Moche tomb around A.D. 500 revealed that two teenagers were sacrificed to their close relatives.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Harbin, China
Visitors at the 26th Harbin Ice and Snow World
Photograph: VCG/Getty Images

Salisbury, England
Members of Salisbury Cathedral choir pose for photos before their final practice for Christmas services
Photograph: Finnbarr Webster/Getty Images

Kleine Scheidegg, Switzerland
‘A skier ventures out.’
Photograph: Phil Davis
Market Closes for December 23, 2024

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1732: Richard Arkwright, one of the fathers of the Industrial Revolution, was born in Preston in Lancashire, England. In 1769 he invented the first practical machine for spinning cotton into thread, and then built the first functional textile mill.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 0.6%, or 149.5 to 24,748.98 in Toronto.
Brookfield Corp. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 1.7%.
Tilray Brands Inc. had the largest increase, rising 15.2%.
Today, 140 of 223 shares rose, while 80 fell; 8 of 11 sectors were higher, led by energy stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 18%, poised for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 3.1%
* This month, the index fell 3.5%
* The index advanced 19% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 24% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 4.2% below its 52-week high on Dec. 9, 2024 and 20.9% above its low on Feb. 13, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 1.6% in the past 5 days and fell 2.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.4 on a trailing basis and 16.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.88t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 10.42% compared with 10.38% in the previous session and the average of 8.65% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Energy | 58.5076| 1.4| 36/6
Financials | 40.0180| 0.5| 19/7
Materials | 19.8330| 0.7| 37/12
Industrials | 16.2386| 0.5| 20/8
Information Technology | 14.9804| 0.6| 7/3
Utilities | 7.1002| 0.8| 9/6
Consumer Staples | 1.5519| 0.2| 6/4
Health Care | 1.2241| 1.7| 2/2
Consumer Discretionary | -1.1121| -0.1| 1/10
Real Estate | -3.4630| -0.7| 1/19
Communication Services | -5.3725| -0.9| 2/3
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Brookfield Corp | 13.8600| 1.7| -26.8| 54.2
Canadian Natural Resources | 9.9020| 1.6| -23.3| -0.5
Enbridge | 9.7620| 1.1| -40.6| 25.9
Restaurant Brands | -1.9720| -0.9| 156.3| -8.1
BCE | -2.8750| -1.4| 4.1| -37.1
Waste Connections | -8.6560| -1.9| 17.2| 24.2
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — A rally in some of the world’s largest technology companies spurred a rebound in stocks, following a brief slide fueled by weaker-than-expected data on US consumer confidence.
In a thin trading session at the start of a holiday-shortened week, the S&P 500 finished near session highs.
Nvidia Corp., Meta Platforms Inc. and Tesla Inc. drove a gauge of the “Magnificent Seven” megacaps up almost 1.5%.
“Primary uptrends remain intact for equities despite the recent profit-taking,” said Craig Johnson at Piper Sandler.
“Given the short-term oversold conditions, we expect a ‘Santa Claus Rally’ to be a strong possibility this year.”
To Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson, negative breadth — when falling shares outnumber those that are rising — may not matter as much for high-quality stock indexes with robust price momentum.
Earlier Monday, stocks lost steam momentarily after data showed consumer confidence unexpectedly sank for the first time in three months on concerns about the outlook for the economy.
“The economic outlook is deteriorating,” said Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research.
“This was true before the Fed’s December confab and remains true. The risk of the Fed flip-flopping is quite high.”
The S&P 500 added 0.7%.
The Nasdaq 100 climbed 1%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%.
Qualcomm Inc. climbed after prevailing at trial against Arm Holdings Plc’s claim that it breached a license for chip technology.
Rumble Inc. soared the most on record as Tether will buy a stake in the video-sharing platform.
The Nordstrom family is joining forces with a Mexican retailer to take its namesake department store private.
Treasury 10-year yields advanced six basis points to 4.59%.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%.
The S&P 500 is on its way to record a stellar annual return and back-to-back years of more than 20% gains.
The index has risen about 25% since the end of 2023, with the top seven biggest technology stocks accounting for more than half of the advance.
“Last week’s action should mark the end of the recent pullback and allow a ‘Santa Claus Rally’,” said Jonathan Krinsky at BTIG.
“We do think a deeper correction early in ’25 is likely, albeit from a new all-time high.”
Whether or not the gauge will be able to stage a “Santa Claus Rally,” that continues to be a barometer of investors’ optimism into the new year.
That seven-day period includes the last five trading days of the old year and the first two of the new one.
A positive “Santa Claus Rally” has preceded a 10.4% average annual gain for the S&P 500 since World War II, as well as a 74% frequency of advance, according to Sam Stovall at CFRA.
However, a decline in this seven-day period saw the gauge post an average annual increase of only 5.7%, posting a gain just 32% of the time.
Yet Stovall says a more accurate indicator in his view is the “January Barometer.”
Since 1945, if the year started with a gain in January, the S&P 500 rose an average of 18.3% in price during the entire year, advancing an average of 91% of the time, Stovall said.
If the first month declined in price, however, the average full-year return was negative 1.9%.

Corporate Highlights:
* MetLife Inc. agreed to buy PineBridge Investments’ assets outside of China from Hong Kong billionaire Richard Li’s Pacific Century Group as part of the US insurer’s push to grow in asset management.
* Xerox has agreed to buy printer maker Lexmark International Inc. from a consortium of Asian investors in a deal valued at $1.5 billion.
* Hyatt Hotels Corp. is in exclusive talks with Playa Hotels & Resorts NV over strategic options that may include an acquisition of the all-inclusive resort owner.
* Aviva Plc agreed to buy Direct Line Insurance Group Plc for roughly £3.7 billion ($4.65 billion) in a deal that would create the UK’s largest motor insurer.
* Prosus NV is acquiring online travel agency Despegar.com Corp. for $1.7 billion as the Dutch technology investor seeks to expand its online commerce presence in Latin America.
* Honda Motor Co. sketched plans for a drawn-out deal that amounts to a takeover of Nissan Motor Co. in all but name, as Japan’s automakers struggle to keep up in an increasingly competitive global car industry.

Key events this week:
* Christmas Day, Wednesday
* US initial jobless claims, Thursday
* Boxing Day, Thursday
* Japan Tokyo CPI, unemployment, industrial production, retail sales, Friday
* US goods trade, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.7% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.6%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 1.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0407
* The British pound fell 0.3% to $1.2535
* The Japanese yen fell 0.5% to 157.14 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2% to $93,183.23
* Ether rose 3.8% to $3,406
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced six basis points to 4.59%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 2.32%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 4.55%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude was little changed
* Spot gold fell 0.4% to $2,611.15 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Robert Brand, Winnie Hsu and Matthew Burgess.

Have a wonderful evening!

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Shab
” Let no one be deluded that a knowledge of the path can substitute for putting one foot in front of the other.” — Mary Caroline Richards

Shab Mohammadpour

Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
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www.carolannsteinhoff.com