December 20, 2023, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
December 20^th, 1868: The US formally takes possession of the territory of Alaska from Russia.
1879: Thomas Edison privately demonstrated his incandescent light at Menlo Park, N.J. Go to article >> 

Winter solstice 2023: Watch Jupiter dance with the moon
Jupiter and a bright moon will shine together on the winter solstice, which occurs Dec. 21-22 in the Northern Hemisphere. Read More.

An AI robot outmaneuvers humans at Maze Run.

Peruse the world’s best and worst airports 

8,000-year-old ago fort in Siberia is world’s oldest known
The fact that this Stone Age fort was built by hunter-gatherers is transforming our understanding of ancient human societies. Read More.

Key ingredient for life gushing out of Saturn moon
NASA scientists have discovered complex molecules in the gas and vapor plumes escaping from Enceladus’s icy core. Read More.

Tonga volcano eruption was fueled by 2 merging chambers
Researchers have mapped the magma plumbing system beneath Tonga’s underwater volcano and discovered three magma chambers, two of which fed the record-shattering 2022 eruption. Full Story: Live Science (12/19)
Iceland volcano: Breathtaking photos show wall of lava
A huge volcanic fissure appeared in Iceland on Dec. 18, spewing lava up to 30 feet into the air — and the eruption has been captured in incredible photos. Read More.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Yew Tree Tarn, Lake District, UK
‘One of the joys of driving from Ambleside to Coniston is passing the beautiful Yew Tree Tarn. I often stop to take photos of the reflections. On this day there was an artist at work, himself one of the many reflections.’
Photograph: Karen Rollison/Guardian Community

Mojave Desert, California, US
‘A mountain bluebird settled on a tree across the street that was lit by the setting sun. With some careful manoeuvring, I managed to frame the bird against the nearly full moon.’
Photograph: Steve Harvey/Guardian Community

​​​​​​​Catamarca, Argentina
‘Antofagasta de la Sierra in northern Argentina, at 3,300m above sea level, is the gateway to the spectacular Campo de Piedra Pomez (Field of Pumice Stone).’
Photograph: Alejandro Sala/Guardian Community
Market Closes for December 20^th, 2023

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1977, Jimmy Carter signed a law that reduced the rate of Social Security cost-of-living adjustments, declaring: “This legislation will guarantee that from 1980 to the year 2030, the Social Security funds will be sound.” Less than six years later, Social Security lost $20,000 a minute and required a fresh law to stabilize its fortunes.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 1.1% at 20,600.81 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 1.1%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.6%.
Lithium Americas Corp. had the largest drop, falling 7.5%.
Today, 195 of 225 shares fell, while 28 rose; all sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss 16 times. The next day, it declined 11 times for an average 0.5% and advanced five times for an average 0.4%
* This year, the index rose 6.3%, poised for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 5.4%, heading for the biggest advance since the fourth quarter of 2021
* This month, the index rose 1.8%
* The index advanced 6.7% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 23% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 10.2% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 1.8% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.4 on a trailing basis and 15.1 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.29t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 11.20% compared with 10.42% in the previous session and the average of 12.11% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points |
|Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -54.2825| -0.8| 3/24
Materials | -52.6007| -2.2| 1/51
Energy | -34.5386| -1.0| 8/32
Information Technology | -32.3722| -1.8| 3/7
Industrials | -20.8957| -0.7| 2/24
Utilities | -13.8236| -1.7| 0/15
Consumer Discretionary | -11.6557| -1.6| 4/9
Consumer Staples | -8.1114| -1.0| 3/8
Real Estate | -6.6783| -1.3| 2/18
Communication Services | -2.3621| -0.3| 2/3
Health Care | -1.4801| -2.5| 0/4
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points| | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -31.2600| -3.6| 30.2| 114.4
TD Bank | -16.1000| -1.5| -23.9| -4.9
RBC | -10.3000| -0.8| -5.1| 4.0
Loblaw | 1.7150| 1.4| 9.1| 3.5
CIBC | 2.6510| 0.7| 131.2| 14.2
Constellation Software | 5.2050| 1.2| -23.6| 54.1
US
By Cristin Flanagan
(Bloomberg) — High-flying stocks notched one their worst days in months Wednesday after Wall Street warned of a pullback on the rally ignited by the Federal Reserve’s pivot last week.
The Nasdaq 100 ended the session down 1.5%, the biggest one-day drop in eight weeks, as the tech-heavy benchmark drew back from its latest all-time high.
The S&P 500 fell at a similar pace in its steepest drop since Sept. 26.
Some in the market speculated that expiring zero-day options traded Wednesday helped accelerate the selloff as options dealers sold more to rebalance their positions before expiration.
Relative strength readings on the gauges had been trading at levels typically seen before a decline.
Wall Street’s fear gauge — the VIX — also rose sharply, it has been trading near multi-year lows.
Newedge Wealth’s Cameron Dawson warned of the market risks.
“It certainly looks like it has become very one-sided, and it is a scary world when everybody gets on one side of the boat,” the chief investment officer of Newedge Wealth, told Bloomberg Television. “The market is very extended, we do see it being very overbought. But we’re in this melt-up period and so oftentimes things can get even sillier before they really do have a pullback.”
Jim Caron, portfolio solutions CIO at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, was also cautious looking ahead to the new year. “It’s going to get a lot rockier and a lot more uncertain into the future.”
Treasuries powered ahead with the yield on the policy-sensitive two-year notching a 10-basis point move, the 10-year rate fell to 3.9%.
British 10-year debt led the global bond rally following data showing a slowdown in UK inflation.
Traders also digested data showing US consumer confidence in December rose by the most since early 2021 on Wednesday.
The second-straight monthly increase showed Americans were less concerned about a recession, but economists are still keeping a wary eye on the jobs market.
“While a sustained improvement in confidence would be a positive signal about consumer attitudes and spending, a loosening in labor market conditions owing to a restrictive policy stance is likely to weigh on demand, consumption and growth going forward,” Rubeela Farooqi at High Frequency Economics wrote.
Separately, sales of previously owned US homes edged higher in November off of a 13-year low, according to a National Association of Realtors report, earlier data showed mortgage rates fell to their lowest since June.
Some of Wall Street’s biggest bulls heading into 2023 remained undaunted at the prospect of more strength next year.
Fundstrat Global Advisors LLC’s Tom Lee, who came closest to predicting the trajectory of the S&P 500 for this year among strategists tracked by Bloomberg, sees the benchmark hitting 5,200 in 2024.
Investors are also starting to weigh risks stemming from potential shipping delays and freight cost increases, as companies divert cargoes away from the Red Sea to avoid militant attacks.
This rerouting will mean higher shipping costs and longer delivery time, Bloomberg Economics wrote in a note.
The focus now turns to upcoming data readouts, including Thursday’s GDP print and Friday’s data on personal consumption expenditures — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
In commodities, crude oil fell below $75 a barrel, while gold tumbled.

Key events this week:
* Bank Indonesia rate decision, Thursday
* US GDP, initial jobless claims, Conf. Board leading index, Thursday
* Nike earnings, Thursday
* Japan inflation, Friday
* UK GDP, Friday
* US personal income and spending, new home sales, durable goods, University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 1.5% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.3%
* The MSCI World index fell 1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
* The euro fell 0.5% to $1.0931
* The British pound fell 0.8% to $1.2626
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 143.75 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 2.2% to $43,451.12
* Ether was little changed at $2,184.19
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined seven basis points to 3.86%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 1.97%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined 12 basis points to 3.53%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.2% to $73.76 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.5% to $2,029.78 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from David Marino, Vildana Hajric, Alexandra Semenova, Sagarika Jaisinghani, Sujata Rao and Alice Atkins.
Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
The biggest risk is not taking any risk.  In a world that’s changing really quickly,
the only strategy that is guaranteed to fail is not taking risks. -Mark Zuckerberg, b.1984.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com