December 19, 2023, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
December 19,1972:  Apollo 17 splashed down in the Pacific, ending the Apollo program of manned lunar landings.   Go to article >>.
December 19, 1999: Rosa Parks receives the Congressional Gold Medal, the highest civilian honour in the United States, for her contributions to civil rights.

LIVE: Iceland volcano erupts near Grindavík Monday night
The Iceland volcano is now erupting after weeks of earthquakes rocking the region, according to a statement released by the Iceland Met Office on Monday (Dec. 18).
Watch a video of a volcanic eruption in Iceland.

Norway’s oldest known ship burial predates Vikings
A large, grassy hill in Norway known as the Herlaugshagen burial mound was likely the site of a pre-Viking ship burial, a new analysis finds. Read More.

NASA identifies 17 planets that could be fit for life
A new NASA survey identified 17 exoplanets that may have the right conditions for liquid water oceans hidden beneath icy shells. The planets could be good candidates in the search for alien life.  Read More.

JWST discovers the oldest black hole in the universe
The James Webb Space Telescope’s discovery of the universe’s oldest black holes is giving astronomers some vital clues for how they came to be.  Full Story: Live Science (12/18).

72 million-year-old ‘blue dragon’ unlike anything ever seen
The near-complete remains of a never-before-seen mosasaur that dominated the ancient Pacific Ocean have been unearthed in Japan. The great white shark-size creature is unlike any other aquatic animal, dead or alive. Read More

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Krasnoyarsk, Russia
Traffic crosses the Communal Bridge as temperatures drop to -30C
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

Jakarta, Indonesia
People gather at a Christmas display in Senayan City shopping mall
Photograph: Mast Irham/EPA

Ramsau, Austria
People walk through a snowy landscape
Photograph: Matthias Schräder/AP
Market Closes for December 19^th, 2023

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1927, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 200 for the first time, finishing the day at 200.93. It had taken the Dow nearly 22 years to double.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose for the second day, climbing 1.1%, or 216.92 to 20,839.63 in Toronto.
The index advanced to the highest closing level in at least a year.
Toronto-Dominion Bank contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.0%.
Canfor Corp. had the largest increase, rising 12.3%.
Today, 190 of 225 shares rose, while 33 fell; 10 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater gain 15 times. The next day, it advanced 10 times for an average 0.7% and declined five times for an average 0.6%
* This year, the index rose 7.5%, poised for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 6.6%, heading for the biggest advance since the second quarter of 2021
* The index advanced 8.5% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 25% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 11.5% above its low on Oct. 27, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is up 3% in the past 5 days and rose 3.3% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.3 on a trailing basis and 15 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 3.2% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.26t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 10.42% compared with 10.18% in the previous session and the average of 12.15% over the past month
================================================================
|Index Points |
|Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | 80.9184| 1.3| 23/4
Materials | 56.1625| 2.4| 52/0
Industrials | 28.9132| 1.0| 21/5
Energy | 24.6246| 0.7| 34/6
Consumer Staples | 12.5782| 1.5| 10/1
Consumer Discretionary | 8.2754| 1.1| 12/1
Utilities | 6.9542| 0.8| 11/3
Real Estate | 3.6745| 0.7| 16/5
Health Care | 0.8436| 1.4| 3/1
Communication Services | 0.1854| 0.0| 3/2
Information Technology | -6.2061| -0.3| 5/5
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
TD Bank | 20.7000| 2.0| -31.9| -3.5
Bank of Montreal | 11.3400| 1.8| -41.1| 4.5
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 10.6200| 1.6| 2.7| 2.7
Waste Connections | -2.0000| -0.6| -31.1| 9.5
Fairfax Financial | -2.2620| -1.2| 9.6| 48.0
Cameco | -11.2900| -6.0| 57.0| 90.2
US
By Cristin Flanagan
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street extended its rally Tuesday, shrugging off warnings from policymakers trying to rein in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
The Nasdaq 100 set another all-time high while the S&P 500 added 0.6%, fast approaching the benchmark’s record peak.
The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average also hit a fresh record.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said there was no urgency to cut rates. His prediction for only two cut rates in 2024 — well below traders expectations for at least five cuts — did little to dent market optimism.
Bonds clung to gains with yields on the US 10-year, a proxy for mortgage rates, slipping to around 3.93%.
The rate on the policy-sensitive two year hovered around 4.44%.
Traders digested a surge in new US home construction in November as builders continued to benefit from a limited supply of existing home sales.
Residential starts jumped 14.8% last month to a 1.56 million annualized rate, government data showed Tuesday.
“Overall, a solid read from the housing sector and one that reinforces the soft-landing narrative,” Ian Lyngen with BMO Capital Markets wrote.
The inversion of the Treasury yield curve — a closely watched indicator of a potential economic downturn — drew cautious comments from Ed Hyman, Evercore ISI’s founder and chairman.
“Similar to today, the US yield curve became more inverted in late 2007 as bond yields fell about -100bp,” Hyman wrote in a note to clients. “The Great Recession started 3 months later.”
Meanwhile, expectations for rate cuts are making investors the most optimistic since the beginning of 2022, a Bank of America Corp. survey showed Tuesday.
While Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin took a more dovish tone suggesting the US central bank would cut interest rates if recent progress on inflation continued, other policymakers have pushed back more aggressively against rate cut bets.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and the Cleveland Fed’s Loretta Mester suggested Monday that the expectations were premature.
The Fed’s messaging drew criticism from economist Mohamed El-Erian who warned that the central bank was letting the market control the narrative on interest rates. 
“Fed communication confuses people,” the president of Queens’ College, Cambridge, and a Bloomberg Opinion columnist told Bloomberg Television. “I think we have a real problem.” “This Fed seems willing to be bullied,” he said.
Earlier, Japan’s Nikkei 225 equity index rallied and the yen slumped after the BOJ kept its policy rate at -0.10% and signaled it’s in no hurry to remove negative interest rates.
Japan’s central bank has been an outlier, having failed to even start tightening policy, while many peers appear set to wind down rate-hike cycles.
Investors are awaiting for this week’s data readouts including Wednesday’s existing home sales, Thursday’s the third quarter gross domestic product print and Friday’s durable goods orders and personal consumption expenditures — the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation — to firm up their rate bets.
Oil prices climbed as more companies shun the Red Sea after a spike in vessel attacks along the key shipping conduit.
Gold rose while Bitcoin and the dollar tumbled.

Key events this week:
* New Zealand issues half-year economic and fiscal update, Wednesday
* China loan prime rates, Wednesday
* UK inflation, Wednesday
* US Conference Board consumer confidence, existing home sales, Wednesday
* Bank Indonesia rate decision, Thursday
* US GDP, initial jobless claims, Conf. Board leading index, Thursday
* Nike earnings, Thursday
* Japan inflation, Friday
* UK GDP, Friday
* US personal income and spending, new home sales, durable goods, University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets: 
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.6% as of 4:01 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7%
* The MSCI World index rose 0.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3%
* The euro rose 0.5% to $1.0978
* The British pound rose 0.6% to $1.2722
* The Japanese yen fell 0.8% to 143.90 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 0.9% to $42,213.94
* Ether fell 2% to $2,170.86
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 3.93%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined six basis points to 2.02%
* Britain’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 3.65%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.3% to $73.44 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.6% to $2,040.04 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Alexandra Semenova, Carter Johnson, Sujata Rao, Jason Scott and Tassia Sipahutar.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
A concentrated mind will pierce a rock. –Japanese Proverb.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com