Dear Friends,
Tangents: Happy Friday Eve. đ
Carolann is away from the office. I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.
December 18, 1892 â The Nutcracker ballet by Pyotr Ilyich Tchaikovsky premiered in Saint Petersburg, Russia. Encyclopedia Britannica
December 18, 1956 â Japan was admitted to the United Nations. United Nations
December 18, 1958 â Niger officially became a republic. History.com
International Migrants Day â A United Nationsâdesignated day recognizing the rights and contributions of migrants worldwide. United Nations
World Arabic Language Day â Celebrated by UNESCO to promote the Arabic language and its cultural heritage. UNESCO
1878 â Joseph Stalin â Leader of the Soviet Union from the mid-1920s until 1953. Encyclopedia Britannica
1963 â Brad Pitt â American actor and film producer. Biography.com
1980 â Christina Aguilera â American singer, songwriter, and actress. History.com
Scientists made a unique discovery in a cave on the Caribbean island of Hispaniola: dozens of fossilized bee nests inside rodent bones that were deposited by owls thousands of years ago.
James Webb telescope finds supermassive black hole hidden inside ‘Jekyll and Hyde’ galaxy
The discovery of a hidden supermassive black hole inside an ancient galaxy suggests that some of our universe’s most extreme objects could be invisible unless observed in infrared wavelengths, James Webb telescope observations reveal.
A new study reveals the likely origin of a mysterious spider-like pattern first spotted on Jupiter’s moon Europa in 1998. The finding could have implications for a NASA spacecraft en route to the frozen world.
Pumas in Patagonia, Argentina are eating penguins in a national park â and it’s changing how the big cats are interacting with each other.
Taylor Swift gives an âearly giftâ to fans this holiday season
Dropping the first two episodes of her Disney+ docuseries the day before her birthday apparently wasnât enough of a gift from Taylor Swift to her fans.
The final two episodes of âThe End of an Eraâ docuseries have been moved up to December 23, the streaming service said Thursday, describing it as âan early gift to fans around the world.â
Does high-fat dairy prevent dementia? Not so fast, experts say
High-fat cheese and cream may slightly protect the brain from dementia, according to a new observational study that followed nearly 28,000 people in Malmö, Sweden, for up to 25 years.
Britain to rejoin EUâs Erasmus student exchange program in Brexit reversal
Britain announced that it will rejoin the European Unionâs Erasmus student exchange program in 2027, six years after it ditched the scheme during fractious Brexit negotiations.
Couple scoop second lottery win, beating 24 trillion-to-1 odds
Theirs is a 24-trillion-to-one tale â a Welsh couple who defied astronomical odds to become million-dollar winners not just once, but twice.
$1 billion in de minimis tariff revenue has been collected since loophole closed
The US government has collected $1 billion in de minimis tariff revenue since rolling back the exemption on low-value packages this spring, according to new data that Customs and Border Protection shared exclusively with CNN.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY
London, UK
The Tree of Belonging, a festive installation for Migrant Help is unveiled at Marylebone station to mark International Migrants Day
Photograph: Jack Hall/PA
Tunceli, Turkey
Climbers ascend the Munzur mountains
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images
Leeds, UK
Dancers take part in a dress rehearsal for the Northern Balletâs interpretation of the Nutcracker
Photograph: Danny Lawson/PA
Market Closes for December 18th, 2025
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| Dow Jones |
47951.85 | +65.88 |
| +0.14% | ||
| S&P 500 | 6774.76 | +53.33 |
| +0.79% | ||
| NASDAQ | 23006.36 | +313.04 |
| +1.38% | ||
| TSX | 31440.85 | +190.83 |
| +0.61% |
International Markets
| Market Index |
Close | Change |
| NIKKEI | 49001.50 | -510.78 |
| -1.03% | ||
| HANG SENG |
25498.13 | +29.35 |
| +0.12% | ||
| SENSEX | 84481.81 | -77.84 |
| -0.09% | ||
| FTSE 100* | 9837.77 | +63.45 |
| +0.65% |
Bonds
| Bonds | % Yield | Previous % Yield |
| CND. 10 Year Bond |
3.405 | 3.427 |
| CND. 30 Year Bond |
3.865 | 3.875 |
| U.S. 10 Year Bond |
4.1217 | 4.1528 |
| U.S. 30 Year Bond |
4.8029 | 4.8262 |
| BOC Close | Today | Previous |
| Canadian $ | 0.7258 | 0.7253 |
| US $ |
1.3778 | 1.3785 |
| Euro Rate 1 Euro= |
Inverse | |
| Canadian $ | 0.6191 | 1.6152 |
| US $ |
0.8530 | 1.1723 |
Commodities
| Gold | Close | Previous |
| London Gold Fix |
4342.10 | 4324.20 |
| Oil | ||
| WTI Crude Future | 55.94 | 55.27 |
Market Commentary:
đ° On this day in 1899, rocked by news of heavy U.S. casualties in the battle against rebels in the Philippines, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 8.7%, or 5.57 points.
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By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.6% at 31,440.85 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since rising 0.8% on Dec. 10 and follows the previous session’s little change.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 3.1%.
NFI Group Inc. had the largest increase, rising 7.2%.
Today, 132 of 212 shares rose, while 77 fell; 8 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 27%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* This quarter, the index rose 4.7%
* So far this week, the index fell 0.3%
* The index advanced 28% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 16% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1% below its 52-week high on Dec. 12, 2025 and 41.4% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 0.7% in the past 5 days and rose 4.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.4 on a trailing basis and 19.7 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.95t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 13.22% compared with 13.15% in the previous session and the average of 14.72% over the past month
Index Points
Financials | 93.9470| 0.9| 21/3
Information Technology | 55.6967| 1.8| 6/3
Industrials | 31.0405| 0.9| 25/4
Materials | 13.9789| 0.3| 29/21
Consumer Staples | 13.5664| 1.3| 8/2
Consumer Discretionary | 9.1152| 0.9| 6/3
Real Estate | 6.3782| 1.4| 18/1
Utilities | 2.9429| 0.3| 7/7
Communication Services | -5.3891| -0.9| 0/4
Health Care | -5.4559| -5.9| 3/1
Energy | -24.9792| -0.5| 9/28
Shopify | 58.7200| 3.1| -8.2| 50.3
RBC | 24.5800| 1.1| -9.7| 32.9
TD Bank | 20.5100| 1.4| -21.9| 66.6
Cenovus | -7.2960| -3.2| -17.2| 4.0
Nutrien | -7.8310| -2.6| 61.6| 32.1
Canadian Natural | Resources | -7.8890| -1.2| -41.1| -2.2
NFI Group | 7.2| 0.6840| 372.3| 10.7
Aritzia | 4.3| 3.1440| 101.2| 115.1
NGEx Minerals | 4.3| 0.9520| 143.7| 96.8
Curaleaf | -32.1| -7.0210| 524.3| 96.9
Discovery Silver| Corp | -5.5| -2.1880| 55.9| 1,122.5
BRP Inc. | -5.4| -1.3430| 102.0| 34.5
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange closed higher on Thursday for the first time in five sessions, largely on some bargain buying after the index lost a total of more than 400 points over the four days that immediately followed last Thursday’s record close.
The resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 190.83 points, or 0.6%, to 31,440.83, even with Health Care emerging as the biggest mover and loser among sectors.
It was down near 10%, despite President Trump’s move to reschedule cannabis from a Schedule I to Schedule III substance under the Controlled Substances Act.
Most sectors were higher, although Base Metals was the only one to rise by at least 1%, even though gold prices edged off a day-prior record high.
Investor sentiment was not helped by commentary around uncertainty on the economic outlook for 2026, and on mixed commodity prices.
Among cannabis stocks, Tilray Brands, Inc. (TLRY.TO, TLRY) fell 4.9% even as it confirmed Thursday afternoon its planned strategic framework to advance its U.S. medical cannabis operations following federal cannabis rescheduling and related regulatory developments.
In conjunction with these regulatory changes, Tilray announced the formation of Tilray Medical USA.
Cannabis stocks had rallied of late on the prospect of a U.S. move to reclassify marijuana.On the economy, Desjardins published a 2026 outlook note in which it talks about "navigating land mines".
The Desjardins takeaway is that the next 12 months "could end up playing out in very dramatic fashion…or it might not".
It said: "Questions about the scale and speed of investment in artificial intelligence continue to mount, while bond vigilantes hover like watchful sentinels, monitoring government deficits and nudging investors to rethink asset allocation.
Global growth looks positive but fragile, challenged by policy shifts in the U.S. that could ripple across markets.
Trade policy looms large — the CUSMA review in particular could reshape how businesses operate across North America.
While there is a path to navigating these landmines without a major shock, it is far from a certainty."
RBC Assistant Chief Economist Cynthia Leach said federal government planned spending is "lagging", although it should start to accelerate.
She noted even though the budget implementation bill will not pass before the end of January, it is paused now that the House of Commons has risen for the holiday break, at least half of $29 billion in ‘new’ budget measures already have spending authority from early summer.
Also, she noted, though higher capital spending is a core budget theme, the majority of planned 2025-26 spending is operational, including for defense, suggesting a potentially easier path to deployment once spending is authorized.
"Still," Leach said. "it’s looking unlikely that all planned spending can be unleashed in year.
Also, any spending ramp up in fiscal 2025-26 is unlikely to be material in calendar 2025, making it part of the 2026 story."
Besides possible spending delays from 2025-26 plans, spending from 2026-27 and later years could also be backed up given the higher capital and defense share, Leach said.
"Combined with execution risk on the operational savings side, where later-stage departmental cuts may be harder won, and it means risk that future deficits are larger.
Although some delayed spending may not materialize," she added..
Leach said: There is excess capacity in the economy in the near-term to absorb some fiscal stimulus.
However, recent data also suggest the output gap is lower than previously assumed.
Our outlook expects a strengthening Canadian economy through 2026 and progressive closing of the output gap.
Delayed spending could thus arrive when the Canadian economy is already much stronger."
Leach added: "Given uncertainty around federal deficits levels and timing, we’ve not made any changes to our ‘fiscal add’ to GDP in our outlook, which already included 0.4 percentage points to growth over 2025 and 2026."
Of commodities, West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose for a second straight session Thursday as geopolitical risks continue to dominate sentiment amid U.S. threats to Venezuela, offsetting the over supply concerns that pushed prices to near five-year lows earlier this week.
West Texas Intermediate crude oil for January delivery closed up $0.21 to settle at US$56.15 per barrel, while February Brent oil was last seen up $0.16 to US$59.84.
But gold had edged down from a record high by late afternoon Thursday after the dollar and treasury yields weakened as the United States released incomplete data showing inflation slowed in November.
Gold for February delivery was last seen down US$9.40 to US$4,364.60 per ounce.
US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Data showing US inflation cooled at a startling clip last month ignited stock and bond markets, bolstering bulls with prospects for more decisive Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026.
Despite the numerous caveats surrounding the data impacted by the government shutdown, traders welcomed the slowest increase in consumer prices since early 2021, but that was not all.
A solid outlook from giant Micron Technology Inc. underscored the voracious appetite for all things related to artificial intelligence.
The S&P 500 rose nearly 1%, halting a four-day slide.
Treasury yields dropped as the consumer price index offered some relief to traders worried about more pronounced inflation that could keep a lid on Fed cuts.
âNovemberâs inflation undershoot has armed Fed doves with strong ammunition,â said Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management.
âDistortions canât be ruled out, but the sharp drop in annual inflation leaves the Fed with little excuse not to respond to rising unemployment.â
Because of the shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics couldnât collect prices throughout October and started sampling later than usual in November.
For policymakers, what the latest CPI means depends on how skeptical they are about its accuracy, said Jim Baird at Plante Moran Financial Advisors.
âOn the surface, the news on inflation was good and may help to clear the path for further Fed easing.
But enough questions will be raised to keep a January cut from being a slam dunk,â he noted.
For its next policy decision in January, swaps are implying just about 20% odds of a cut.
A reduction is fully priced in by mid-2026.
Traders are also sticking with their call that the Fed lowers rates twice next year.
The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.5%.
Micron soared 10%.
In late hours, FedEx Corp. boosted its profit forecast.
Nike Inc. posted a surprise jump in sales.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries slid four basis points to 4.11%.
The dollar wavered.
A busy day for global monetary policy decisions saw German and UK bonds underperforming US peers after the European Central Bank and Bank of England issued hawkish signals on the outlook for their rate paths.
In a note titled âCPI + MU = Relief Today,â Steve Sosnick at Interactive Brokers referred to the impacts of inflation and Micronâs outlook on the stock-market rebound Thursday.
âSo much for the malaise of the past few days.
A bad mood is no match for positive data, and we received positive news that allayed two key areas of concern,â he said.
In a report fouled by the record-long government shutdown, inflation in several categories that had long been stubborn seemed to nearly evaporate.
The core CPI increased 2.6% in November from a year ago, trailing all estimates.
While the November CPI print is admittedly noisy, it offers hope to a different inflation narrative than what weâve seen over the past six months, said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
Weâd need to see further inflation data confirm this narrative change, he added.
âAlthough this is just one inflation reading â and admittedly not the Fedâs preferred inflation gauge â easing inflation concerns could open the door to a more accommodative Fed moving forward,â Kenwell said.
The latest inflation report vindicated the Fedâs dovish stance at its most recent meeting and could raise the likelihood of another rate cut in January, according to Stephen Kates at Bankrate Financial.
âThe Fed said it was in âwait-and-see modeâ, and today it got to see inflation moving in the right direction,â said Ellen Zentner at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
âInflation may still be above target, but todayâs data made the opening for additional rate cuts just a little wider.â
âWe would advise market participants to look through the November reportâs dovish signal and wait for whatâs likely to be more reliable December numbers,â said Oscar Munoz, Gennadiy Goldberg and Jayati Bharadwaj at TD Securities.
âWe think Fed officials will probably aim to do the same.â
Scrutiny on the details of this weekâs CPI report is justified, but it did provide marginal information that inflation is directionally moving in the right direction, according to Jason Pride at Glenmede.
âSince the Fed is balancing competing concerns around inflation and the health of the jobs market, any incremental data pointing to softening price trends could help justify more and/or sooner rate cuts,â he said.
âThe December CPI report due next month now takes on a bit more importance.â
The latest inflation reading wonât move the needle for the Fed given how noisy the data is, according to Kay Haigh at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.
The Fed will instead focus on the December CPI as a more accurate bellwether for inflation, he said.
âWe may have some more hot readings as demand ticks higher from larger than expected tax returns in early 2026, but we should expect inflation to cool in the latter part of next year,â said Jeff Roach at LPL Financial.
There is clearly room for the Fed to keep cutting rates in order to support the labor market and if the doves win out, then we are likely to see stock prices supported â and move higher, according to Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management.
âWhile next year will undoubtedly bring new challenges, heading into the end of the year, there should be room for the market to move higher as corporate profits are increasing, the GDP is growing and inflation for now remains in check,â he said.
The surprisingly subdued inflation reading should put additional rate cuts back on the Fedâs radar for 2026, according to Jennifer Timmerman at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
âOur take is that underlying inflation remains better behaved than we anticipated in late 2025, though we believe several more months of data â beyond the distorted government shutdown period â will be needed to confirm what is remarkable improvement,â she said.
âInflation has lost its grip â and the Fed knows it,â said Gina Bolvin at Bolvin Wealth Management Group.
âTodayâs CPI print gives the market what it needed: confirmation that disinflation is durable and policy relief is coming.â
For investors, Bolvin says this is the time to lean into growth with guardrails: âbe selective, be strategic, and stay ahead of the curve.â
US stocks are heading into 2026 with positive momentum and a host of bullish forecasts at their backs.
For the fourth year of strong gains that many predict to play out, they must still overcome plenty of potential threats.
For a start, valuations are already rich and the group of stocks leading the gains is relatively narrow, a risky setup in itself.
A lot is riding on AI winners proving that, rather than forming a bubble, they have further to climb.
About 57% of participants in a Deutsche Bank survey said a potential plunge in AI valuations poses the biggest risk to market stability in 2026.
Blackstone Inc. Chief Executive Officer Steve Schwarzman brushed aside talk of a bubble surrounding the data centers powering artificial intelligence, saying the business is conservative.
In a CNBC interview Thursday, Schwarzman cast Blackstoneâs role as one of a straightforward service provider to healthy businesses.
The company builds data centers and signs long-term leases with credit-worthy partners like Nvidia Corp., he said.
âThis is not bubble-type work,â Schwarzman said.
âThis is extremely conservative.â
Corporate Highlights:
* Apple Inc. is making changes to its iOS software in Japan to comply with a new local law aimed at fostering competition, part of broader efforts by the iPhone maker to adapt to regulations around the world.
* Trump Media & Technology Group Corp., the company behind Truth Social, is getting into nuclear fusion.
** The company said it will merge with TAE Technologies Inc., a closely held fusion developer founded in 1998, in a transaction valued at more than $6 billion.
* Darden Restaurants Inc., the owner of the Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse chains, raised its comparable sales forecast, citing better-than-expected growth fueled by affordable meal options and strong spending from higher-income diners.
* CarMax Inc. said it will tolerate lower margins and boost ad spending to repair its business and attract buyers after slumping sales wiped out half of the used car retailerâs market value this year.
* Activist investor Elliott Investment Management has built stake of more than $1 billion in Lululemon Athletica Inc., according to a person familiar with the matter, as the struggling retailer faces a strategic overhaul amid its chief executive officerâs exit.
* Oil major Chevron Corp. is preparing to export 1 million barrels of crude from Venezuela, a day after President Donald Trump accused the nation of using oil proceeds to finance drug trafficking and terrorism.
* Intercontinental Exchange Inc., owner of the New York Stock Exchange, is in talks to invest in crypto payments firm MoonPay Inc. as part of a funding round, people familiar with the matter said.
* Digital bank operator SoFi Technologies Inc. has launched its own US dollar stablecoin, joining a growing list of financial firms betting on what is seen as a critical component of the digital asset economy.
* Pershing Square Holdings Ltd. said it will invest as much as $1 billion in Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. to back its purchase of specialty insurer Vantage Group Holdings Ltd.
* Jeff Bezosâ Blue Origin delayed the launch of a crew of six on a suborbital joyride Thursday, citing an unspecified issue after earlier delays for high winds.
* BP Plc appointed Meg OâNeill as chief executive officer, replacing Murray Auchincloss after just two years in the job as the oil giant struggles to revive its fortunes following a botched pivot toward renewables.
* Birkenstock Holding Plc predicted a slower pace of sales growth in the coming year as its sandals and clogs contend with the impact of a weaker US dollar and tariffs.
* UBS Group AG is set to begin its latest wave of job cuts in mid-January, according to people familiar with the matter.
* Renault SA regained investment grade status at S&P Global Ratings, which praised the French carmakerâs overhauled lineup and expansion outside Europe.
What Bloomberg Strategists say…
âWith core CPI easing to the slowest pace since 2021, a disinflation narrative that favors earlier rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is back in place after months of tariff-related angst about inflation.
Thatâs supportive of equitiesâ year-end rally but only modestly helpful to bonds given global central bank tightening.â
âEdward Harrison, Macro Strategist, Markets Live.
Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 0.8% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.5%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%
* The MSCI World Index rose 0.7%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 2%
* The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.6%
* Micron rose 10%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro fell 0.1% to $1.1725
* The British pound was little changed at $1.3382
* The Japanese yen was little changed at 155.61 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.1% to $84,969.48
* Ether fell 0.6% to $2,800.39
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.11%
* Germanyâs 10-year yield declined one basis point to 2.85%
* Britainâs 10-year yield was little changed at 4.48%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 3.46%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.80%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.1% to $56.02 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.1% to $4,332.54 an ounce
–With assistance from Lu Wang.
Have a lovely evening.
Be magnificent!
As ever,
Shima
"I canât control the wind, but I can adjust the sail."– Ricky Skaggs
Shima Zangeneh
Assistant to Carolann Steinhoff
Queensbury Securities Inc.
340A – 730 View Street
Victoria BC V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778-430-5851
Fax: 778-430-5828