December 18, 2024, Newsletter
December 18, 2024
Dear Friends,
Tangents:
December 18,1865: The United States /Congress formally adopts the 13th Amendment, abolishing slavery throughout America. This watershed moment transforms American society and establishes fundamental human rights in law.
On Dec. 18, 1957, the Shipping port Atomic Power Station in Pennsylvania, the first civilian nuclear facility to generate electricity in the United States, went online. Go to article
Antonio Stradivari, violin maker, b.1737.
Paul Klee, artist, b. 1879.
Stephen Spielberg, filmmaker, b. 1947.
Brad Pitt, actor, b. 1964.
Katie Holmes, actress, b. 1978.
Christina Aguilera, singer, b. 1980
A small glass of wine each day might be good for the heart, study finds
But slow your pour … Many medical experts don’t have grape feelings about daily wine consumption.
Prince Harry and Meghan share photo of their children on Christmas card
This year marks the first time since 2021 that Prince Harry and Meghan, Duchess of Sussex have released a Christmas card featuring their children, whose privacy they fiercely guard.
‘Bluey: The Movie’ is coming
A movie based on the popular children’s animated series “Bluey” is headed to theaters. Here’s what we know about the project.
Tom Cruise becomes a military hero in real life
After years of playing military heroes on screen, Tom Cruise is now one in real life. The “Top Gun” star was awarded the US Navy’s highest honor that a person outside of the Department of the Navy can receive.
Milwaukee Bucks win NBA Cup title
The Milwaukee Bucks won the second annual NBA Cup after stifling the Oklahoma City Thunder 97-81 in Las Vegas on Tuesday. Star forward Giannis Antetokounmpo was named MVP.
PHOTOS OF THE DAY
Stourhead, UK
Visitors walk under illuminated feathers, part of the Christmas at Stourhead seasonal lights trail
Photograph: Toby Melville/Reuters
Prague, Czech Republic
People watch as Jan Tater lights one of the historic gas lamps on the city’s Charles Bridge. During Advent all 46 lanterns are manually lit daily, a tradition started in 1847
Photograph: Martin Divíšek/EPA
Soham, UK
A Christmas lights display at the home of Helen and John Attlesey in Cambridgeshire, who decorate their house every year to raise money for three charities that supported their grandson Jacob, who was diagnosed with epilepsy
Photograph: Joe Giddens/PA
Market Closes for December 18, 2024
Market
Index |
Close |
Change |
Dow
Jones |
42326.87 |
-1123.03 |
| -2.58% |
| S&P 500 |
5872.16 |
-178.45 |
| -2.95% |
| NASDAQ |
19392.70 |
-716.36 |
| -3.56% |
| TSX |
24557.00 |
-562.71 |
| -2.24 % |
International Markets
Market
Index |
Close |
Change |
| NIKKEI |
39081.71 |
-282.97 |
| -0.72% |
HANG
SENG |
19864.55 |
+164.07 |
| +0.83% |
| SENSEX |
80684.45 |
-1064.12 |
| -1.30% |
| FTSE 100* |
8199.11 |
+3.91 |
| +0.05% |
Bonds
| Bonds |
% Yield |
Previous % Yield |
CND.
10 Year Bond |
3.224 |
3.142 |
CND.
30 Year
Bond |
3.271 |
3.223 |
U.S.
10 Year Bond |
4.5140 |
4.3888 |
U.S.
30 Year Bond |
4.6753 |
4.5808 |
Currencies
| BOC Close |
Today |
Previous |
| Canadian $ |
0.6919 |
0.7023 |
US
$
|
1.4452 |
1.4239 |
Euro Rate
1 Euro= |
|
Inverse |
| Canadian $ |
1.4980 |
0.6675 |
US
$
|
1.0366 |
0.9647 |
Commodities
| Gold |
Close |
Previous |
London Gold
Fix |
2636.35 |
2659.05 |
|
|
|
| Oil |
|
|
| WTI Crude Future |
70.08 |
71.29 |
Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1899, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 8.7%, on news of heavy casualties in the war against rebels in the Philippines.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the fifth day, dropping 2.2%, or 562.71 to 24,557.00 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 2.3% on Feb. 13.
Today, financials stocks led the market lower, as all sectors lost; 204 of 219 shares fell, while 14 rose.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline and had the largest move, decreasing 7.3%.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss once
* This year, the index rose 17%, poised for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 2.3%
* The index advanced 19% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 23% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 5% below its 52-week high on Dec. 9, 2024 and 20% above its low on Feb. 13, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 4.3% in the past 5 days and fell 1.7% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.7 on a trailing basis and 17.2 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.96t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 10.01% compared with 7.65% in the previous session and the average of 8.43% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -164.8485| -2.0| 2/24
Information Technology| -150.7941| -5.6| 0/10
Materials | -100.6453| -3.5| 2/48
Energy | -71.1260| -1.7| 0/41
Industrials | -18.6779| -0.6| 5/22
Utilities | -17.3305| -1.8| 1/13
Consumer Discretionary| -16.8218| -2.0| 1/10
Real Estate | -12.8450| -2.6| 0/20
Consumer Staples | -4.7124| -0.5| 1/9
Communication Services| -2.6484| -0.4| 2/3
Health Care | -2.2376| -3.1| 0/4
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
| Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move |% Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -106.3000| -7.3| 27.7| 53.5
Brookfield Corp | -44.4200| -5.2| 18.5| 50.6
RBC | -40.2800| -2.3| 66.6| 29.1
Torex Gold Resources | 1.1690| 7.2| 196.2| 98.7
Canadian Pacific Kansas | 1.5700| 0.2| 2.2| 0.6
GFL Environmental | 2.9320| 2.9| 148.3| 43.6
US
By Rheaa Rao and Emily Graffeo
(Bloomberg) — The Federal Reserve jarred US markets Wednesday, pushing stocks lower and sending Treasury yields soaring, after forecasting fewer interest rate cuts next year.
It was the worst loss for the S&P 500 on the day of a rate decision since 2001.
The S&P 500 fell below the 6,000 level, suffering its worst session since August.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 dropped 3.6%, the most in five months.
Micron Technology Inc. fell post market after reporting earnings.
The policy-sensitive two-year US Treasury yield surged 10 basis points to 4.35% and the 10-year rate rose to a level last seen in May.
Bloomberg’s gauge of the dollar jumped to its highest since November 2022.
While Jerome Powell delivered a widely expected quarter- point rate cut following a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank signaled increasing wariness around inflation, including a reduction in how far members expect easing to go in 2025. Powell reemphasized that the central bank would be more cautious as it considers further adjustments to the policy rate and said the Fed is committed to reaching its 2% target.
“We need to see progress on inflation,” Powell said. “That is how we are thinking about it. It is kind of a new thing. We moved quickly to get to here but moving forward we are moving slower.”
The velocity of Wednesday’s drop befit the speed with which the Fed’s pivoted back to an inflation-leery posture.
Before the latest session, the S&P 500 had surged more than 10% since the FOMC’s July 31 rate decision, at which the central bank dropped its one-sided risk assessment and said keeping the labor market expanding had become a bigger priority.
In Wednesday’s briefing, the chair also said some policymakers had begun to incorporate into their forecasts the potential impact of higher tariffs that President-elect Donald Trump may implement.
But he said the impact of such policy proposals was at this point highly uncertain.
Max Gokhman, senior vice president at Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, called Powell “a hawk in dove’s clothing.”
“Despite playing down the recent slowdown in disinflation while boasting about the strength of economic momentum, he still hinted that tariffs won’t be written off as transitory and that the two-cut forecast for 2025 is necessary because policy must remain restrictive,” he said.
The last time the S&P 500 saw losses of the magnitude on Fed’s decision day was on Sept. 17, 2001, when the index fell nearly 5%.
It fell 12% on March 16, 2020, a day after the Federal Reserve’s emergency weekend meeting during the pandemic.
Whitney Watson of Goldman Sachs Asset Management expects the Fed to skip a rate cut in January before resuming on its easing path in March.
“While the Fed opted to round out the year with a third consecutive cut, its New Year’s resolution appears to be for a more gradual pace of easing,” Watson, global co-head and co-chief investment officer of fixed income and liquidity solutions at the firm, said.
Key events this week:
* Japan rate decision, Thursday
* UK BOE rate decision
* US revised GDP, Thursday
* Japan CPI, Friday
* China loan prime rates, Friday
* Eurozone consumer confidence, Friday
* US personal income, spending & PCE inflation, Friday
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 2.9% as of 4:01 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 3.6%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.6%
* The MSCI World Index fell 2.6%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.9%
* The euro fell 1.2% to $1.0368
* The British pound fell 1% to $1.2583
* The Japanese yen fell 0.8% to 154.64 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 5.2% to $100,886.84
* Ether fell 6% to $3,693.97
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 10 basis points to 4.50%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 2.25%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.56%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.1% to $69.99 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 2% to $2,593.75 an ounce
This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Vildana Hajric, Lu Wang and Stephen Kirkland.
Have a lovely evening.
Be magnificent!
As ever,
Carolann
Those who cannot love want power. – Adolph Guggenbuhl-Craig, 1923-2008. |
|
Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor
Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7
Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com