December 17, 2024, Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
The beginning of Saturnalia in ancient Rome: Roman masters served their slaves December 17-23.

December 17^th, 1903: Orville Wright pilots the first powered aircraft for 12 seconds at Kitty Hawk, Norh Carolina.  This breakthrough launches the age of aviation and transforms human transport forever.
Orville and Wilbur Wright made the first successful man-powered airplane flight, near Kitty Hawk, N.C.  Go to article.

December 17, 1971: John Lennon, Yoko Ono, and Aretha Franklin perform at a benefit at the Apollo for the Attica Prison Uprising families.

1790: Aztec calendar stone discovered.

World’s 1st nuclear-diamond battery of its kind could power devices for 1000s of years
The world’s first nuclear-diamond battery uses carbon-14 to power devices for more than 10,000 years. Read More.

Do atoms ever touch?
Atoms make up everything around us, but do these building blocks of matter ever actually touch? Read More.

Woman who stowed away on Delta flight to Paris apprehended again
The woman who stowed away on a Delta flight from New York to Paris last month was taken into custody again, this time trying to sneak into Canada.

China extends visa-free transit policy
China has tripled the amount of time visitors can spend in the country without a visa in yet another move to entice more foreign tourists.

China extends visa-free transit policy
China has tripled the amount of time visitors can spend in the country without a visa in yet another move to entice more foreign tourists.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Val Gardena, Italy
Switzerland’s Marco Odermatt in action during men’s downhill training for the FIS Alpine Ski World Cup
Photograph: Leonhard Föger/Reuters

Yala, Sri Lanka
Malabar pied hornbills perch on a tree at the Yala national park
Photograph: Ishara S Kodikara/AFP/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Changchun, China
Aerial view of ice sculptures at Changchun Ice and Snow New World in Jilin province
Photograph: VCG/Getty Images
Market Closes for December 17, 2024

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1992, the U.S., Canada and Mexico signed the North American Free Trade Agreement, after 14 months of negotiations.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the fourth day, dropping 0.1%, or 27.5 to 25,119.71 in Toronto.
The index dropped to the lowest closing level since Nov. 20.
Toronto-Dominion Bank contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 0.6%.
Air Canada had the largest drop, falling 9.4%.
Today, 139 of 219 shares fell, while 76 rose; 7 of 11 sectors were lower, led by financials stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 20%, poised for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 4.7%
* The index advanced 22% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 27% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 2.8% below its 52-week high on Dec. 9, 2024 and 22.7% above its low on Feb. 13, 2024
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 1.5% in the past 5 days and rose 0.9% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.7 on a trailing basis and 17.3 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.8% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.96t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 7.65% compared with 8.13% in the previous session and the average of 8.36% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Financials | -24.4370| -0.3| 5/21
Energy | -18.0625| -0.4| 4/35
Industrials | -13.6834| -0.4| 11/16
Materials | -9.9505| -0.3| 17/31
Consumer Staples | -8.4763| -0.8| 3/7
Communication Services | -7.5002| -1.2| 0/5
Consumer Discretionary | -0.5763| -0.1| 4/7
Utilities | 0.9117| 0.1| 8/7
Health Care | 1.3569| 1.9| 3/1
Real Estate | 2.6597| 0.5| 15/5
Information Technology | 50.2618| 1.9| 6/4
================================================================
| | |Volume VS | YTD
| Index | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
TD Bank | -5.7550| -0.6| -19.3| -12.2
Air Canada | -5.5050| -9.4| 125.0| 20.9
Telus | -4.3920| -2.1| 49.0| -14.7
Canadian National | 3.4950| 0.6| -45.0| -11.5
Constellation Software | 4.8420| 0.8| 51.1| 41.8
Shopify | 47.1900| 3.4| -18.9| 65.6
US
By Rheaa Rao
(Bloomberg) — US stocks declined as traders braced for the Federal Reserve’s widely anticipated rate decision and its forecast for next year.
The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 slid 0.4%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its longest losing streak since 1978.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.40%.
Bloomberg’s dollar gauge fluctuated for most of the session.
Earlier, data showed that US retail sales increased at a firm pace in November, highlighting consumer resilience.
While the report didn’t seem to change expectations for a rate cut by the Fed this week, there is an understanding that the central bank will prepare the market for a pause early next year, said Ian Lyngen of BMO Capital Markets.
Industrial production data also came in Tuesday, unexpectedly declining for a third month in November.
Traders are now turning to the Fed’s last rate decision of the year due Wednesday.
A quarter-point cut is widely expected, but what happens in the following months is less clear.
While the US economy is resilient, the prospect of inflationary import tariffs proposed by the incoming administration of Donald Trump may give Fed officials pause about the pace of further moves.
Bank of America Corp. sees the Fed lowering interest rates to the 3.75% level — or three more cuts from where they are, CEO Brian Moynihan said on Bloomberg Television.
“They need to bring it down a little bit, they just have to be more careful because the economy is stronger than we thought three months ago, six months ago but still has potential weaknesses” he said.
“We haven’t even talked about what is going on outside the United States that could affect it — not tariffs but wars.”
On the other hand, Chris Larkin, managing director, trading and investing, E*Trade from Morgan Stanley, says more strong economic data like retail sales could bolster the case for the Fed to pause in January.
In either case, what happens to stocks and bonds will be determined by what the Fed says about cuts in 2025 instead of the central bank’s decision tomorrow, wrote Tom Essaye, president and founder of Sevens Report and a former Merrill Lynch trader.
In Canada, inflation dropped below the central bank’s target for the second time in three months.
The data is expected to give Bank of Canada officials confidence that their rapid rate cuts didn’t derail their efforts to keep price gains at the 2% target.
However, persisting political discord in Canada pushed the loonie to a Covid-era low.
Concerns over Brazil’s ballooning debt and deficits pushed the real to all-time lows.
To stem the slide in the currency, its central bank sold over $3 billion in local markets in back-to-back auctions — its fourth intervention in three days.
Elsewhere, money markets continued to trim wagers on Bank of England interest-rate cuts as attention turns to Wednesday’s UK November inflation figures.
Traders place the chance of a third quarter-point reduction next year at 25%, down from 90% on Monday.
Gilt yields rose.
Earlier, index of Asian currencies fell to the lowest in more than two years amid pessimism over China’s economic outlook and expectations that Trump policies will drive gains in the greenback.
Among other notable currencies, the yen snapped a six-day losing streak. The yen’s rapid decline in the past week had strategists warning that further weakness may trigger verbal intervention from authorities and add pressure on the Bank of Japan to hike rates.
Meanwhile, oil fell for a second day after Chinese economic data stoked concerns about demand and equity markets slipped. 

Key events this week:
* UK CPI, Wednesday
* Eurozone CPI, Wednesday
* US rate decision, Wednesday
* Japan rate decision, Thursday
* UK BOE rate decision
* US revised GDP, Thursday
* Japan CPI, Friday
* China loan prime rates, Friday
* Eurozone consumer confidence, Friday
* US personal income, spending & PCE inflation, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.4% as of 4:02 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro fell 0.2% to $1.0488
* The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.2709
* The Japanese yen rose 0.4% to 153.55 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 0.5% to $106,608.76
* Ether fell 2.9% to $3,929.27
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 4.40%
* Germany’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.23%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced eight basis points to 4.52%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.7% to $70.19 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 0.3% to $2,643.85 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Vildana Hajric and Andre Janse van Vuuren.

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!
As ever,

Carolann
Iron rusts from disuse; stagnant water loses its purity and in cold weather becomes frozen;  even so does inaction sap the vigor of the mind. -Leonardo da Vinci, 1452-1519.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com