Dear Friends,

Tangents:
Carolann is away from the office. I will be writing the newsletter on her behalf.

1773 – Boston Tea Party: American colonists stage a symbolic protest against British taxes, marking a key step toward the American Revolution. Jagranjosh
1971 – Bangladesh Liberation Victory: The surrender of Pakistani forces in Dhaka ends the Bangladesh Liberation War. Jagranjosh
1985 – Reputed organized-crime chief Paul Castellano was shot to death outside a New York City restaurant. Go to the article
National Day – Bahrain: Celebration of Bahrain’s independence. IndiaTimes
Day of Reconciliation – South Africa: National holiday promoting unity and healing after apartheid. IndiaTimes

1775 – Jane Austen: English novelist, author of Pride and Prejudice and Sense and Sensibility. History.com
1770 – Ludwig van Beethoven: German composer, one of the greatest figures in classical music. History.com
1928 – Philip K. Dick: American science fiction writer, known for visionary novels. History.com
1946 – Benny Andersson: Swedish musician, member of ABBA. AP News

The UN’s International Asteroid Warning Network is closely watching comet 3I/ATLAS.

Tracking comets accurately is hard. A new effort with the U.N. and NASA aims to better chart these visitors using 3I/ATLAS.

5 genetic ‘signatures’ underpin a range of psychiatric conditions

A study suggests psychiatric disorders can share the same genetic signatures and that they may stem from shared biological mechanisms.

‘Very novel and very puzzling’: Unknown species of squid spotted burying itself upside down, pretending to be a plant

A new study reveals an unknown species of whiplash squid burying itself upside down in the deep sea — a first-of-its-kind behavior for cephalopods.

Fingerprint of ancient seaborne raider found on Scandinavia’s oldest plank boat

An ancient fingerprint and several chemical clues from a 2,400-year-old sea raiders’ boat are revealing secrets about where some mysterious attackers came from during the Iron Age.

30 models of the universe proved wrong by final data from groundbreaking cosmology telescope

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) in Chile has released its final batch of data after 15 years — and it proves that the Hubble tension, a rift in our understanding of the universe, is very real.

The Italian grandmas winning Instagram at nearly 90 — Altamura, Italy

A pair of practiced hands pushes novice fingers into the stretchy dough, encouraging the boldness needed to coax the focaccia into the pan’s creases before mashing in juicy tomatoes and garlic. After a sprinkling of dried oregano and a generous splash of olive oil, the pan is ready for the wood-fired oven.

New data raises questions about how much the Earth has warmed

Planet-warming pollution rates exploded after the end of World War II. James Watt’s steam engine launched the Industrial Revolution in 1769. Before that, for thousands of years, humans were clearing forested land for farming, releasing carbon from trees and plants into the atmosphere.

Europe backtracks on ban of new combustion engine cars, in setback to tackling climate changeThe European Union had previously pledged to ban new combustion engine cars by 2035.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Jakarta, Indonesia

Visitors take selfies with Christmas decorations overhead on an escalator at the Pacific Place shopping centre
Photograph: Mast Irham/EPA

London, UK

‘St Paul’s cathedral watches over people rushing up and over the Millennium Bridge.
’Photograph: Isabelle Desgranges

Dhaka, Bangladesh

Paratroopers stage a skydiving display during celebrations to mark Victory Day at the old airport in Sher-e-Bangla Nagar. To match the country’s 54 years of independence, 54 paratroopers trailing the Bangladeshi flag took part in the display
Photograph: Monirul Alam/EPA

Market Closes for December 16th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Commodities

Market Commentary:

📰 On this day in 1947, three researchers at Bell Labs came up with a working model of the first practical semiconductor they called a "transistor." It soon made vacuum tubes obsolete and helped usher in the age of microelectronics.

C🎅A🎅N🎅A🎅D🎅A
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell for the third day, dropping 0.7%, or 219.51 to 31,263.93 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 0.9% on Dec. 1.
Today, energy stocks led the market lower, as 7 of 11 sectors lost; 115 of 212 shares fell, while 94 rose.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 3.7%.
International Petroleum Corp. had the largest drop, falling 5.3%.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 26%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* This quarter, the index rose 4.1%
* The index advanced 24% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.6% below its 52-week high on Dec. 12, 2025 and 40.7% above its low on April 7, 2025
* The S&P/TSX Composite is little changed in the past 5 days and rose 3.1% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.3 on a trailing basis and 19.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.99t
* 30-day price volatility fell to 13.44% compared with 13.48% in the previous session and the average of 14.91% over the past month
Index Points
Energy | -142.1349| -3.0| 4/33
Financials | -41.3200| -0.4| 13/11
Materials | -33.9597| -0.6| 19/31
Industrials | -12.7854| -0.4| 18/11
Utilities | -5.6077| -0.5| 6/8
Communication Services| -3.2522| -0.5| 1/4
Consumer Staples | -0.9971| -0.1| 5/5
Real Estate | 3.3270| 0.7| 16/2
Health Care | 3.5756| 4.0| 3/1
Consumer Discretionary| 3.7146| 0.4| 4/5
Information Technology| 9.9309| 0.3| 5/4
Canadian Natural | Resources | -24.2500| -3.7| 50.3| -3.1
Enbridge | -21.8000| -2.2| -9.8| 5.3
Suncor | -17.0500| -3.4| -43.0| 13.2
Curaleaf | 3.9830| 23.4| 222.5| 178.1
Gildan Activewear | 5.8840| 5.5| -0.6| 28.8
Shopify | 35.2500| 1.9| -4.1| 46.6
Curaleaf | 23.4| 3.9830| 222.5| 178.1
NFI Group | 12.3| 1.0390| 304.3| 3.3
Gildan Activewear| 5.5| 5.8840| -0.6| 28.8
IPC | -5.3| -0.6060| 33.9| 40.4
Imperial Oil | -5.3| -7.1380| 75.0| 32.4
Peyto Exploration | -5.2| -1.6700| 43.7| 27.0
(MT Newswires):
The Toronto Stock Exchange was down for a third-straight session Tuesday on some profit taking after recent record highs, still mixed commodity prices and fresh uncertainty around the outlook for rates across North America after "downbeat" U.S. jobs data, even as Canada’s federal government is finally moving to make this country more economically independent of its larger neighbor.
The resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed down 219.51 points, or 0.7%, to 31,263.93, adding to the total of near 180 points lost over the prior two days.
The index set a record close of 31,660.73 last Thursday.
Most sectors were lower, although the Health Care sector was the biggest mover on the day, helping to cap losses, in rising near 6.7%.
But of those sectors lower, Energy was a standout, down 3.7%, as West Texas Intermediate crude oil sagged again, falling to the lowest in nearly five years as abundant supply continues to weigh on the commodity.
WTI crude oil for January delivery closed down $1.55 to settle at US$55.27 per barrel, the lowest since February 2021, while February Brent oil was down US$1.58 to US$58.98.
Base Metals eased 0.2% as gold was mostly steady late afternoon Tuesday even after a report showed the U.S. job market is slowing, raising the possibility of further interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Gold for February delivery was last seen down $2.50 to US$4,332.70 per ounce, sticking close to the Oct. 20 record high of US$4,359.40.
In sector-related news, Canada will launch a task force to support the softwood lumber sector by opening the doors to new opportunities at home, BNN Bloomberg reported Tuesday.
The report noted the lumber industry faces massive tariffs from the United States after American lumber companies accused Canada of unfair trade practices.
Officials plan to work with lumber companies, labor groups and Indigenous leaders to identify and address challenges.
The report noted tariffs on softwood lumber now total 45% after the U.S. added a 10% tariff to existing anti-dumping and countervailing duties.
"We can be masters in our own house, and we can use this crisis to come out of it stronger than we did going into it," Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Tim Hodgson told BNN Bloomberg in an interview.
In a similar vein, The Canadian Press cited Procurement Minister Joel Lightbound saying the federal government is "putting Canadian workers and industries first" through a new Buy Canadian policy, and adding that it will
help ensure Canadian supply chains remain strong.
The Canadian Press reported Tuesday the strategy, announced earlier in the fall, is meant to ensure Canadian products and workers are prioritized in federal procurement decisions to help protect Canadian industries.
It applies to the government’s new major projects and housing offices, defense procurement, and community infrastructure projects funded by the federal government.
Tuesday’s report noted the first stage of the policy, in effect today, requires that contracts valued at $25 million or more prioritize Canadian businesses and materials.
It also requires that Canadian steel, aluminum and wood products manufactured or processed in Canada be used in construction and defense projects, supporting industries hit hard by U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war.
On the outlook for rates across North America, BMO Economics said nothing in the U.S. employment and retail sales reports today changes the narrative on the economic outlook there: "solid spending with a troubling malaise in job creation".
BMO put more weight on the labor market deterioration with the unemployment rate rising to an "uncomfortable and elevated" 4.6%, keeping 2026 Fed rate cuts in play.
This is important here in Canada because a widening differential between interest rates here and the U.S. can lead to a depreciation in the Canadian dollar.

US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Signs the US jobs market is sluggish but not quickly deteriorating saw traders refraining from boosting bets on near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts, with stocks falling and bonds wavering.
A noisy reading reflecting some of the impacts of the longest government shutdown in US history was received by traders with caution.
The S&P 500 fell for a third straight day.
Treasury yields edged mildly down as swaps implied only 20% odds of a January Fed cut.
A reduction is fully priced in by mid-2026.
Nonfarm payrolls increased 64,000 in November after declining 105,000 in October amid a contraction in federal employment.
The jobless rate rose to 4.6% last month, continuing its upward climb as many out-of-work Americans struggled to land new jobs.
“The report contains enough softness to justify prior rate cuts, but it offers little support for significantly deeper easing ahead,” said Kevin O’Neil at Brandywine Global.
The Fed is unlikely to put much weight on the data given the disruptions, according to Kay Haigh at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.
“The report on December’s employment data, released in early January ahead of the next meeting, will likely be a much more meaningful indicator for the Fed,” Haigh noted.
While the jobs reading was a “gift” to those looking for the Fed to follow a dovish path in 2026, there’s no indication the broader economy has been derailed, noted Ellen Zentner at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
Data showed US retail sales were little changed in October as solid spending in several categories was muted by a decline at motor vehicle dealers.
The S&P 500 lost 0.2% despite gains in most big techs.
The yield on 10-year Treasuries dropped two basis points to 4.15%.
The dollar was little changed.
West Texas Intermediate oil sank to around $55 a barrel.
Jason Pride said investors should avoid overly extrapolating the signals from the “exceptionally noisy employment report.”
“Today’s report likely strengthens the case for further easing on the margin,” he said.
“However, after delivering three rate cuts at the end of 2025, it is likely that the Fed will take a few months to digest incoming data before deciding on its next move.”
Today’s jobs report does not change the thinking for Fed officials at large, according to Oscar Munoz and Gennadiy Goldberg at TD Securities.
“In all likelihood, the Fed will look through the October/November jobs data and wait to make a more informed assessment based on a more reliable December report,” they said.
The Fed lowered rates for a third straight meeting last week to support what Chair Jerome Powell called a “gradually cooling” labor market with “significant” risks of a further slowdown.
However, Fed officials are split over whether more cuts are needed next year.
“We take a glass half full rather than a glass half empty view of the combined part-October, full November employment report and, more importantly, we think the Fed will too,” said Krishna Guha at Evercore.
“Specifically, we do not think this was weak enough to spur another near-term rate cut.”
Guha reiterated that he does not have another cut in his forecast until June.
“Between now and then, Powell and Co. will be pragmatic, but more conventionally data dependent,” he said.
“And the data will have to come in appreciably worse than expected to deliver another cut.”
“We agree with markets that today’s data flow was a wash,” said a group of Bank of America Corp. economists and strategists in a note.
“Every data point, whether hawkish or dovish, had a caveat. On balance, we think the Fed is well positioned to wait for December data before making its policy decision.”
At JPMorgan Chase & Co., Michael Feroli says the November household survey data are more subject to a skeptical reading, but the likely ongoing rise in the unemployment rate remains a cause for mild concern.
“We continue to believe these concerns will motivate the Fed to cut rates one more time in January, though that call will be informed by whether the cleaner December jobs report indicates growing labor market slack,” he said.
The jobs reading was at best a mixed review of a labor economy that has neither fallen off a cliff nor regained momentum – a middle ground, but one that’s still quite far from a “not too hot, not too cold” Goldilocks outcome, according to Jim Baird at Plante Moran Financial Advisors.
“Our baseline outlook hasn’t changed and it’s unlikely to have changed for the Federal Reserve,” said Tiffany Wilding at Pacific Investment Management Co.
“An economy with resilient growth (despite policy shocks) and a stable labor market will receive fresh stimulus, front-loaded in 1H 2026.”
“The recent employment data didn’t rock the boat too much,” said Ryan Detrick at Carson Group.
“We assumed the labor market was weakening some. Still, there’s something for everyone in there, as November jobs were better than expected, which could be a clue the post summer weakness is ending.”
Bottom line, Detrick says: this continues to give the Fed cover for a dovish tilt in 2026.
“There’s data, but not clarity, and this situation is consistent with a Fed pause in January,” said Don Rissmiller at Strategas.
This print alone shouldn’t meaningfully shift expectations for the path of Fed cuts, nor is it low enough to create new downward pressure on risk assets, according to Adam Hetts at Janus Henderson Investors.
“Higher unemployment might seem dovish for rates,” said David Russell at TradeStation.
“However, it resulted from government job cuts and not weakness in the cyclical economy.
This data does little to move the needle after three cuts, especially because policymakers know stimulus is coming.”
Traders are sticking with their call that the Fed makes two quarter-point reduction in policy rates next year, one more than Fed officials’ median forecast.
The theme of consolidation in bonds managed to survive the top-tier data releases, noted Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets.
“Not only did the range manage to hold, but the price action also itself was notably choppy as Treasuries initially rallied, then bear steepened, and eventually firmed with yields slightly lower on the day,” he said.
“The phrase ‘these changes nothing’ quickly comes to mind as we consider the forward monetary policy implications.”
“Today’s data paints a picture of an economy catching its breath,” said Gina Bolvin at Bolvin Wealth Management Group.
“Job growth is holding on, but cracks are forming. Consumers are still standing but not sprinting.”
This combination gives the Fed more freedom to pivot without panic — and gives investors a reason to lean into quality, income, and long-term themes rather than short-term noise, Bolvin said.
“We’re entering a market environment where selectivity matters more than ever,” she said.
At eToro, Bret Kenwell says investors should not cheer for a notable deterioration in the jobs market, which would have a direct impact on the economy and on corporate earnings.
“Should we see continued consumer strength and a labor market that steadies itself in 2026, it could be another strong year for US stocks,” he said.
“Our view remains that the Fed is likely to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points in the first quarter of next year, providing a favorable backdrop for risk assets,” said Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“But with volatility likely to pick up as markets assess fresh data, we think investors should revisit some of the foundational principles in constructing a resilient portfolio.”
Money managers are set to ring in the new year with resounding confidence about everything from economic growth to equities and commodities, according to a monthly poll by Bank of America.
Strategist Michael Hartnett said this level of optimism has been seen only eight times this century.
Still, the tally shows there are lingering concerns about US tech valuations, with an artificial-intelligence bubble still viewed as the biggest tail risk.
Meantime, the message from sell-side analysts is that there’s still fuel in the tank for Corporate America.
Their aggregated bottom-up price targets suggest the pace of income growth in the S&P 500 will accelerate each year through 2027, data compiled by Jefferies show.
That would translate into three consecutive years of double-digit earnings expansion.

Corporate Highlights:
* Pfizer Inc. forecast little to no sales growth next year, a warning sign as the drugmaker works rebuild its pipeline of hit drugs with a series of pricey acquisitions.
* Kraft Heinz Co. named a new chief executive officer, with former Kellanova CEO Steve Cahillane set to take over from Carlos Abrams-Rivera on Jan. 1.
* Tesla Inc. plans to launch battery-cell production at its plant outside Berlin as soon as 2027, German press agency DPA reported.
* Truist Financial Corp. said it would repurchase as much as $10 billion of stock under a new program.
* Visa Inc. is opening its US network to stablecoin settlement, expanding crypto-linked products and services enabled by the relaxed regulatory environment under the second Trump administration.
* Mortgage giant Freddie Mac announced that Kenny M. Smith will be its chief executive officer effective Dec. 17, putting the former Deloitte Consulting LLP vice chairman in a critical position ahead of a long-promised share sale by the Trump administration.
* Apollo Global Management Inc. is exploring a potential sale of its aviation company Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings Inc., according to people familiar with the matter.
* Mozilla Corp. elevated the head of its Firefox web browser to chief executive officer of the company, which is trying to position itself as an independent, privacy-focused alternative to Big Tech options.
* Databricks is raising over $4 billion in a new funding round that values the software firm at $134 billion, another example of how some tech companies are achieving massive scale without going public.
* Northwell Health Inc., one of New York state’s largest hospital systems, has signed a deal with a major labor union intended to lower costs and expand access to thousands of doctors for its members in the New York area.
* President Donald Trump sued the BBC for at least $10 billion over a misleading edit in a documentary last year that gave the impression he’d made a direct call for violence in a speech leading up to the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol by his supporters.
* Gucci owner Kering SA will get $690 million following its sale of a stake in a New York property to French investment fund Ardian as part of the fashion group’s efforts to shrink its debt.
* Thames Water has deferred payment of almost £2.5 million ($3.4 million) in bonuses to its senior managers this month bowing to pressure not to reward staff while the company is ranked among the worst-polluting suppliers in the UK.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.2% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.3%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.4%
* Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index rose 0.8%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 0.4%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.1748
* The British pound rose 0.4% to $1.3424
* The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 154.77 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin rose 1.6% to $87,584.17
* Ether was little changed at $2,943.4
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 4.15%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at 2.84%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced two basis points to 4.52%
* The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined two basis points to 3.48%
* The yield on 30-year Treasuries declined three basis points to 4.82%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 3% to $55.13 a barrel
* Spot gold was little changed

Have a lovely evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Shima

"The exchangeable value of all commodities rises as the difficulties of their production increase."