December 15, 2021 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents:
On Dec. 15, 1916, the French defeated the Germans in the World War I Battle of Verdun.  Go to article »
1989: General Augusto Pinochet defeated; democracy returns to Chile.

J. Paul Getty, b. 1892.
Sitting Bull, d. 1890.

Art trader accidentally sells an NFT for a fraction of market price.  The “Bored Ape” NFT was worth nearly $300,000, but a distracted human sold it for less than $3,000.

Harley-Davidson is spinning off its electric motorcycle brand.  “Get your battery charging! Head out on the highway!”

New JFK assassination records just dropped.

PHOTOS OF THE YEAR BY DRONE
Chris Gorman is a photojournalist who shoots almost entirely by drone, allowing him to take stunning photos from great heights. -The Telegraph.
A spectacular laser show from Tower Bridge brings in the new year in London. January 1
CREDIT: CHRIS GORMAN / BIG LADDER
Stonehenge could be mistaken for sugar-dusted sweets in this frosty scene, January 24^th
CREDIT: CHRIS GORMAN / BIG LADDER
The sun rises on a cold crisp morning over Arundel Castle in West Sussex. For over 400 years the castle has been the home of the Duke of Norfolk. 22 November
CREDIT: CHRIS GORMAN / BIG LADDER
Misty morning over the quintessentially English village of South Harting in West Sussex. 13 October
CREDIT: CHRIS GORMAN / BIG LADDER

Market Closes for December 15^th, 2021

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
On this day in 1886, for the first time, total daily trading volume on the New York Stock Exchange exceeded 1 million shares.
Canada
By Geoffrey Morgan
(Bloomberg) — Canadian equities climbed Wednesday, ending a five-day losing streak, amid gains in the financial and health-care sectors. The S&P/TSX Composite rose 0.6% to 20,769.16 in Toronto. It’s the biggest increase since rising 1.45% on Dec. 7 and follows the previous session’s decrease of 0.5%. Brookfield Asset Management Inc. contributed the most to the index gain, increasing 2.3 percent. Denison Mines Corp. had the largest increase, rising 8.1 percent. Today, 134 of 233 shares rose, while 96 fell; 9 of 11 sectors were higher, led by financial stocks. Mining and metal stocks weighed down the index, as well as energy stocks despite a late-day rally.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 19 percent, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* This quarter, the index rose 3.5 percent
* The index advanced 19 percent in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 25 percent in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 4.7 percent below its 52-week high on Nov. 16, 2021 and 20.1 percent above its low on Jan. 29, 2021
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 1.5 percent in the past 5 days and fell 4.2 percent in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.7 on a trailing basis and 15.9 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.6 percent on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$3.29t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 14.26 percent compared with 14.18 percent in the previous session and the average of 11.87 percent over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
* Financials | 60.4936| 0.9| 21/7
* Industrials | 24.5942| 1.0| 17/13
* Information Technology | 24.4969| 1.1| 12/3
* Utilities | 8.3253| 0.9| 13/3
* Consumer Discretionary | 5.8771| 0.8| 9/4
* Consumer Staples | 5.7837| 0.8| 10/3
* Real Estate | 4.1153| 0.7| 20/4
* Health Care | 2.0947| 1.3| 8/1
* Communication Services | 0.3464| 0.0| 2/4
* Energy | -2.2442| -0.1| 9/13
* Materials | -13.2843| -0.6| 13/41
================================================================
| | |Volume VS |
| Index | | 20D AVG |YTD Change
Top Contributors |Points Move| % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
* Brookfield Asset Management | 17.2700| 2.3| 35.0| 45.1
* Royal Bank of Canada | 16.6800| 1.3| 16.9| 24.6
* Canadian National | 11.5000| 1.7| 75.9| 17.5
* Barrick Gold | -3.5510| -1.3| 67.7| -20.4
* Wheaton Precious Metals | -3.8750| -2.4| 89.8| -5.4
* Enbridge | -6.1370| -0.9| 80.2| 16.9

US
By Rita Nazareth
(Bloomberg) — Stocks rallied on speculation that the Federal Reserve will effectively combat surging prices without choking off economic growth. The S&P 500 closed near its all-time high after initially dropping when the Fed statement came out. The Nasdaq 100 jumped almost 2.5%. Treasury yields rose, with money markets shifting to price in three quarter-point hikes by the end of 2022 as signaled by officials. The new forecasts also showed policy makers see another three rate increases in 2023 and two more in 2024. “The big question for markets now is: can the U.S. economy digest this pace of hikes without ending up with a stomach ache?,” said Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors. “After the 20 months we’ve had, perhaps six hikes over a two-year period looks overwhelming. But compared to previous hiking cycles — most pertinently 2004 to 2006 when the Fed made 17 consecutive hikes — we are tentatively confident that the U.S. economy can handle it. Not only that, but U.S. inflation needs it.”

The Fed will double the pace at which it’s scaling back purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities to $30 billion a month, putting it on track to conclude the program in early 2022, rather than mid-year as initially planned. “The economy has been making rapid progress toward maximum employment,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said.

More comments:
* “The Fed is signaling that it is taking inflation seriously and, so far, the market believes that the Fed will successfully fight inflation,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance.
* “This could mark a turning point in the business cycle as we’re actually seeing a market cheering the Fed’s vote of confidence in the economy, as opposed to running higher on stimulus,” said Mike Loewengart, managing director of investment strategy at E*TRADE Financial.
* “This isn’t the Fed’s first rodeo when it comes to tapering.  All else equal, investors should not expect Fed tapering to be a disruptive process for markets,” said Jason Pride, chief investment officer of private wealth at Glenmede.  The five-year breakeven rate on Treasury inflation protected securities — or the difference between those yields and the ones on typical Treasuries — approached 2.8%. That suggests the Fed will be challenged to get inflation down toward its 2% target.

Some corporate highlights:
* Chinese firms listed in the U.S. like Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Baidu Inc. slid on concerns the U.S. will hit more companies with investment and export sanctions.
* Lowe’s Cos. delivered a revenue outlook that missed analyst estimates and said it expects home-improvement demand to slow next year.
* Eli Lilly & Co. raised its 2021 earnings and revenue forecast and said it expects 2022 sales in a range of $27.8 billion and $28.3 billion, sending shares up the most since June.

Investors also monitored the latest developments on the omicron coronavirus variant. Anthony Fauci, who serves as a medical adviser to President Joe Biden, said on a briefing Wednesday that studies so far show strong antibody responses from existing boosters, though protections against omicron are weaker with just two doses. The strain could make up about 13% of Covid-19 cases in New York and New Jersey, projections from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show.

Here are some key events this week:
* BOE rate decision, Thursday.
* ECB rate decision, Thursday.
* U.S. housing starts, initial jobless claims, industrial production, Thursday.
* BOJ monetary policy decision, Friday.
* S&P Dow Jones Indices quarterly rebalance effective after markets close, Friday.
* “Quadruple witching” day in the U.S. market, when options and futures on indexes and equities expire, Friday.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 rose 1.6% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 rose 2.4%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.1%
* The MSCI World index rose 1.1%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%
* The euro rose 0.3% to $1.1294
* The British pound rose 0.3% to $1.3265
* The Japanese yen fell 0.3% to 114.05 per dollar
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 1.46%
* Germany’s 10-year yield was little changed at -0.36%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 0.74%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.2% to $71.58 a barrel
* Gold futures rose 0.4% to $1,779.30 an ounce
–With assistance from Andreea Papuc, Vildana Hajric, Emily Graffeo, Katie Greifeld, Peyton Forte and Sophie Caronello.
Have a great evening.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann

The greatest way to live with honor in this world is to be what we pretend to be. –Socrates, c. 470BCE-399 BCE.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com