Dear Friends,

Tangents: Happy Friday.

December 12, 1901 – First transatlantic radio signal received: Guglielmo Marconi receives the first radio transmission across the Atlantic, proving long-distance wireless communication possible. Jagranjosh.com
December 12, 2015 – Paris Agreement adopted: Nearly 200 countries adopt the Paris climate accord to combat global climate change. AP News
December 12, 1914 – The New York Stock Exchange re-opened for the first time since July 30. The market had shut down when World War I broke out. Go to article.

Frank Sinatra – American singer & actor (b. 1915). Time and Date
Dionne Warwick – American singer (b. 1940). The Telegraph
Edvard Munch – Norwegian painter, famed for The Scream (b. 1863). Time and Date

‘They had not been seen ever before’: Romans made liquid gypsum paste and smeared it over the dead before burial, leaving fingerprints behind, new research finds

Researchers found fingerprints and finger drag marks on plaster in a Roman burial. (Image credit: Seeing the Dead Project/University of York and York Museums Trust)

Insomnia and anxiety come with a weaker immune system — a new study starts to unravel why

People with anxiety or insomnia tend to have weaker immunity. The decline of a key immune cell may be a culprit.

Killer whales are teaming up with dolphins on salmon hunts, study finds — but not everyone agrees

There are eye-opening claims that orcas and dolphins are working together on salmon hunts and sharing food — but not everyone is convinced.

Breakthrough 3D wiring architecture enables 10,000-qubit quantum processors

The novel 3D wiring architecture and chip fabrication method enable quantum processing units containing 10,000 qubits to fit in a smaller space than today’s 100-qubit chips.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

San Diego, California, US

A surfer walks by as starfish cling to a pillar of the Ellen Browning Scripps memorial pier during the king tides which are the year’s most extreme high and low tides.
Photograph: Kevin Carter/Getty Images

Nairobi, Kenya

Members of Dance Centre Kenya perform in their 10th anniversary annual ballet, The Nutcracker, at the Kenya National Theatre in Nairobi. DCK is one of east Africa’s leading performing arts schools, training hundreds of students each year, and provides opportunities for talented young dancers from diverse socioeconomic backgrounds to perform in major productions.
Photograph: Yasuyoshi Chiba/STF/AFP/Getty Images

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

The sun sets over Ipanema beach
Photograph: Mauro Pimentel/AFP/Getty Images
Market Closes for December 12th, 2025

International Markets

Bonds

Commodities

Market Commentary:

On this day in 1791, America’s first national bank, the Bank of the United States, opened. It immediately went on a wild credit binge, lending largely to speculators in the emerging U.S. stock market. Then it over-reacted and stopped lending almost entirely, causing a credit crunch and helping to precipitate America’s first market crash.

C🎄A🎄N🎄A🎄D🎄A
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.4% at 31,527.39 in Toronto.
The move follows the previous session’s increase of 0.5%.
Celestica Inc. contributed the most to the index decline and had the largest move, decreasing 12.9%.
Today, 109 of 212 shares fell, while 101 rose; 6 of 11 sectors were lower, led by information technology stocks.
Insights
* This year, the index rose 27%, heading for the best year in at least 10 years
* This quarter, the index rose 5%
* So far this week, the index rose 0.7%
* The index advanced 24% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 13% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is at its 52-week high and 41.8% above its low on April 7, 2025
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.3 on a trailing basis and 19.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.3% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$5.02t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 14.55% compared with 14.44% in the previous session and the average of 15.11% over the past
month
Index Points
Information Technology | -55.1858| -1.7| 2/7
Financials | -43.3697| -0.4| 11/13
Materials | -36.3314| -0.6| 17/33
Energy | -18.6792| -0.4| 18/18
Industrials | -1.9112| -0.1| 8/21
Consumer Staples | -0.6075| -0.1| 7/4
Utilities | 1.3104| 0.1| 8/6
Real Estate | 2.4334| 0.5| 16/3
Communication Services | 4.4868| 0.7| 5/0
Health Care | 5.1571| 6.2| 3/1
Consumer Discretionary | 9.3500| 0.9| 6/3
Celestica | -50.3500| -12.9| 134.2| 217.9
Brookfield Corp | -19.0100| -2.0| -5.6| 14.1
Cameco | -17.7800| -4.4| 131.7| 70.4
Curaleaf | 4.7260| 37.8| 1,048.9| 127.7
Nutrien | 8.4440| 3.0| 0.9| 34.4
Dollarama | 9.1610| 2.4| 61.5| 44.2
Curaleaf | 37.8| 4.7260| 1,048.9| 127.7
CAE | 5.4| 4.7080| 88.7| 12.5
Parex Resources | 4.1| 0.4810| -19.2| 23.5
Celestica | -12.9| -50.3500| 134.2| 217.9
Energy Fuels | -7.9| -2.7580| -7.1| 171.7
NexGen Energy | -5.5| -3.2270| -0.5| 29.6
(MT Newswires)
The Toronto Stock Exchange, fell from a record high on Friday amid some profit taking, mixed commodity prices and, as BMO’s Douglas Porter noted, with the two big forces for the economy and markets in the past year, the trade war and the AI spending boom, continuing to influence the thinking of investors.
The resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index fell 133.34 points, or 0.4%, to 31,527.39, after two successive record finishes, with just about more sectors lower than higher.
Among decliners, Info Tech was down 3.4% and Base Metals down 2.1%.
Among gainers, the Health Care sector was up near 9% as The Canadian Press said shares in Canada’s cannabis companies surged after reports U.S. President Donald Trump is planning to ease federal restrictions on the drug.
It noted the Washington Post first reported that the president is expected to direct agencies to reclassify marijuana as a Schedule III drug, a move would make it similar to some common prescription painkillers.
A reclassification of the drug in the United States could offer an opportunity for Canadian cannabis companies to expand their businesses stateside, the report added.
BMO Capital Markets Chief Economist Douglas Porter, in his weekly ‘Talking Points’ note, noted that it was around the middle of 2025 when it likely began to dawn on many analysts that they may have been looking the wrong way on what was truly driving the global economy.
Porter said: "After spending much of the first half of the year focused on (obsessed with?) the trade war, it became increasingly apparent that the ongoing and accelerating boom in AI spending was blowing past trade uncertainty and, in fact, was keeping the U.S. and global economy on a solid footing.
It was also right around mid-year that the S&P 500 recouped its deep tariff-related losses, and then began climbing to new highs, culminating in a solid full-year return for equities.
In turn, this resiliency set off worldwide debates on the need for further monetary easing heading into 2026."
Porter said the two big forces for the economy and markets in the past year, the trade war and the AI spending boom, will still be apparent in 2026.
The debate is whether the balance will tip the same way as it did in 2025, he added.
In the same note, Porter said "if it was a surprise that China’s economy held its own in the trade war, it comes as a shock that Canada has apparently done so as well".
Arguably, Porter added, the most surprising economic statistic of 2025 is that the number of unemployed Canadians has managed to decline in the past 12 months.
Porter noted the trade uncertainty has been rolling for over 12 months, with President Trump first threatening Canada with tariffs in November 2024.
"Along with an upgrade to GDP growth to around 1.7% for this year, Bank of Canada Governor Macklem was inspired to suggest that the ‘R’ word was thus no longer recession, but resilience," Porter said.
"Accordingly," Porter added, "the BoC signalled this week that it is on hold, and noted that the risks are now more symmetric. With trade/USMCA uncertainty lingering, we believe there is a greater chance of another rate cut than a hike in 2026, but the most likely outcome is no BoC move."
Canada’s sturdiness in the face of existential trade threats was driven by a variety of factors.
First, revisions revealed better-than-expected momentum heading into 2025, with growth a bit above normal at 2% in the past two years.
Second, actual U.S. tariffs on Canada were limited to specific, albeit significant, industries – metals, autos, lumber.
Third, fiscal and monetary policy provided massive support.
The BoC delivered another 100 bps of easing, following 175 bps in 2024.
Meanwhile, Ottawa and the provinces boosted their combined budget deficits by over 2 ppts of GDP.
Fourth, Canadians spent more at home, especially on travel and entertainment.
Finally, the global equity rally felt right at home in the TSX, which outperformed the S&P 500 partly thanks to gold.
The surge in financial asset values pushed net household wealth back above 10-times incomes, double the ratio of 35 years ago.
While some of these forces will fade in 2026, we still look for Canada to avoid recession again and grind out modest growth of 1.4%.
Given the past year, the risks lie on the high side of that call.
Of commodities, gold edged higher by late afternoon Friday but retreated from session highs that saw the metal trade above its record close.
Gold for February delivery was last seen up $16.60 to US$4.329.60 per ounce, well off of the session high of US$4,387.80 that topped the record close of US$4,359.40 set on Oct. 20.
But West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed at a seven-month low as traders turn their focus to an over-supplied market despite heightened geopolitical risk .
WTI crude oil for January delivery closed down $0.16 to settle at US$57.44 per barrel, the lowest since May 5, while February Brent oil was down US$0.03 to US$61.25.
US

By Cristin Flanagan
(Bloomberg) — Wall Street traders took profits on the year’s biggest artificial intelligence winners, dragging global gauges back from the brink of record highs.
Longer-dated bond yields climbed.
A disappointing sales outlook from Broadcom Inc. sent the chipmaker tumbling 11% and weighed on rivals, further fueling investor anxiety over AI wagers initially prompted by Oracle Corp.
The AI bellwether’s stock drop started Thursday following a forecast for rising capital outlays and a longer timeline to a revenue payoff.
The slump deepened Friday on a report of delays to some of Oracle’s data center projects.
Shares of companies tied to the AI power infrastructure also slid.
The Nasdaq 100 slid 1.9% while The S&P 500 fell 1.1% after the index had notched a record close in the previous session.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 pulled back from all-time highs.
Friday’s profit-taking after stock benchmarks hit new peaks was not unexpected, according to Louis Navellier, chief investment officer at Navellier & Associates.
“The AI bubble is deflating but not popping,” Navellier said.
“Heightened concerns on OpenAI agreements may make further gains challenging.”
The selloff put a damper on the ebullience sparked by the Federal Reserve’s third-straight interest rate cut this week.
Investors also had to contend with mixed messages from Fed officials after they left their outlook for a single cut in 2026 intact.
Yields on Treasury 30-year bonds rose 6 basis points to a three-month high after Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said she would prefer interest rates to be slightly more restrictive to keep putting pressure on inflation, which is still running too high.
Jeff Schmid of the Kansas City Fed also pointed to consumer pricing pressures.
Schmid said he was against the central bank’s decision this week to lower interest rates because inflation remains too high and the economy continues to show momentum.
“Judging from the calendar, this could be a day Wall Street takes a breather from its recent feverish pace,” said Joe Mazzola, head trading and derivatives strategist at Charles Schwab.
“Major earnings and data are scarce, the weekend beckons, and investors increasingly look ahead to next Tuesday’s jobs report.”
‘Price Worth Paying’ Diversification across geographies and themes is becoming a key consideration.
After technology heavyweights drove equity gains for much of the year, concerns about stretched valuations and vast capital outlays have prompted investors to look for opportunities elsewhere.
“Given the set-up in markets, diversification is now the price worth paying to keep you fully invested in equities,” wrote Goldman Sachs’s Mark Wilson.
He adds that there are compelling investment stories including Korea, Japan, China or the broader emerging markets.
Meanwhile, strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expect stocks to notch fresh records next year, citing resilient economic growth and broader adoption of artificial intelligence to support corporate earnings.
The team led by Ben Snider reaffirmed its target for the S&P 500 to reach around 7,600 points in 2026, implying gains of about 10% from current levels.
Other forecasters and asset managers share the upbeat view, with strategists at firms including Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank AG and RBC Capital Markets LLC also calling for US stocks to rise more than 10%.
Market forecasters are broadly positive on Europe as well, with not a single one of the 17 strategists surveyed by Bloomberg expecting a major decline.
Four strategists, including those at UBS Group AG and Deutsche Bank AG, project gains of nearly 13% from Wednesday’s close.
Some are eyeing gains on an even shorter horizon, betting
on further advances before 2025 ends as investors rotate into stocks that have so far remained in tech’s shadow.
Robert Edwards, chief investment officer of Edwards Asset Management, expects the S&P 500 to hit 7,000 by year end and the gains to extend into 2026.
“Our clients are far more worried about giving back gains than euphorically targeting even bigger ones.
That’s classic Wall of Worry behavior, not late-bull-market stages,” he said.
“Concerns about AI valuations, midterm elections, affordability, inflation, and the Supreme Court overturning tariffs are the very bricks the market climbs to go higher.”
With no negative catalysts on the calendar, Karen Georges, a fund manager at Ecofi Investissements in Paris, says many are looking for a Christmas rally.
“Investors are keen to buy this year’s laggards; it’s a good time to diversify your portfolio at the moment.”
Bloomberg’s index of the dollar steadied after a two-day losing streak while notching a third weekly loss.
In commodities, gold held onto smaller gains while silver pulled back from an all-time high.
What Bloomberg Strategists Say…
“Oracle is an outlier among the major AI stocks as it has run down its cash flow and taken on debt to finance capital spending.
If the model is running into trouble already because of difficulties in getting data centers built, that’s bad news for all the companies selling shovels into this gold rush, as well as potentially the cloud giants themselves, which have valuations partly predicated on huge and growing order backlogs.”
—Sebastian Boyd, Macro Strategist, Markets Live

Corporate News:
* A group of influential Swiss lawmakers proposed watering down the capital demands that the country wants to impose on UBS Group AG, sending shares to a 17-year high.
* Broadcom Inc., a chip company vying with Nvidia Corp. for AI computing revenue, slumped after its sales outlook for the red- hot market failed to meet investors’ lofty expectations.
* Lululemon Athletica Inc. shares rallied after the pricey yoga- wear maker boosted its full-year outlook and announced that its chief executive officer would step down after a period of sluggish growth.
* SoftBank Group Corp. is studying potential acquisitions including data center operator Switch Inc., people with knowledge of the matter said, underscoring billionaire founder Masayoshi Son’s growing ambitions to ride an AI-fueled boom in digital infrastructure.

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks* The S&P 500 fell 1.1% as of 4 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.9%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.8%
* The Russell 2000 Index fell 1.5%
* Cboe Volatility Index rose 6.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed
* The euro was little changed at $1.1739
* The British pound fell 0.2% to $1.3365
* The Japanese yen fell 0.2% to 155.88 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 2.9% to $90,213.64
* Ether fell 5.2% to $3,082.14
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced four basis points to 4.19%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced one basis point to 2.86%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced three basis points to 4.52%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.2% to $57.47 a barrel
* Spot gold rose 0.4% to $4,299.10 an ounce
* Silver Spot $ fell 2.7% to $61.85

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.

–With assistance from Andre Janse van Vuuren, Levin Stamm, Julien Ponthus, Jan-Patrick Barnert, Michael Msika, Sagarika Jaisinghani and Ira Iosebashvili.

Carolann

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM

Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,

St. Andrew’s Square,

Suite 340A, 730 View St.,

Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808

(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)

Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895

Fax: 778.430.5828

www.carolannsteinhoff.com