December 12, 2024 Newsletter

Dear Friends,

Tangents: La Virgen de Guadalupe, Mexico.

December 12, 1901: Guglielmo Marconi receives the first transatlantic radio signal in Newfoundland sent from England.  This breakthrough revolutionised global communication, enabling real-time transoceanic exchange.

Gustave Flaubert, writer, b.1821.
Frank Sinatra, b.1915.
Jennifer Connelly, actress, b. 1970

Black hole paradox that stumped Stephen Hawking may have a solution, new paper claims
As black holes slowly vanish through Hawking radiation, their information may be preserved in subtle space-time ripples, a new theory suggests. Read More.

Watch Chinese security robot with wheels for feet scramble down hills and perform acrobatics
With wheels and a choice of two legs or four, the DEEP Robotics Lynx is capable of traversing tough terrain. Read More.

Stone Age ‘CSI’: Archaeologists identify a family killed in a house fire nearly 6 millennia ago
Human bones discovered in a house that burned down 5,700 years ago are providing archaeologists “CSI”-style clues about the deaths of seven people in prehistoric Ukraine. Read More.

Herbal medicine vs. traditional medicine
Herbal medicine is prevalent across the world, but it’s difficult to standardize or regulate. Researchers in Thailand are exploring the science of herbal compresses to make this ancient remedy more accessible.

15 of the best places to go for Christmas
From England to the Philippines, these 15 places around the world offer up some of the best holiday charm for a Christmas vacation.

PHOTOS OF THE DAY

Giza, Egypt
Tourists ride camels between theSphinx and Menkaure, the smallest of the three great pyramids. Earlier this year, Egypt scrapped a plan to restore cladding on the monument after international outcry
Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images

Nevşehir, Turkey
Hot-air balloons rise above homes carved into rock in the Cappadocia region
Photograph: Behcet Alkan/Getty Images

​​​​​​​Leslie Gulch is a canyon found within the Owyhee Canyonlands and is largely composed of ‘tuff’, which is rhyolite ash that was deposited after an eruption an estimated 15.5m years ago.
Photograph: Roger Phillips/AP
Market Closes for December 12, 2024

International Markets

Bonds

Currencies

Commodities

Market Commentary:
📈 On this day in 1791: The Bank of the United States opened for business in Philadelphia. Conceived by Alexander Hamilton to help rebuild the economy after the Revolutionary War, the bank quickly caused the first stock-market boom and bust–the Panic of 1792–by flooding the market with loans and then calling them in.
Canada
By Bloomberg Automation
(Bloomberg) — The S&P/TSX Composite fell 1% at 25,410.71 in Toronto.
The move was the biggest since falling 1.4% on Oct. 31 and follows the previous session’s increase of 0.6%.
Shopify Inc. contributed the most to the index decline, decreasing 1.3%. Equinox Gold Corp. had the largest drop, falling 9.3%.
Today, 166 of 219 shares fell, while 51 rose; all sectors were lower, led by materials stocks.
Insights
* In the past year, the index had a similar or greater loss 15 times. The next day, it advanced 10 times for an average 0.5% and declined five times for an average 0.8%
* This year, the index rose 21%, poised for the best year since 2021
* This quarter, the index rose 5.9%
* So far this week, the index fell 1.1%, heading for the biggest decline since the week ended Oct. 25
* The index advanced 26% in the past 52 weeks. The MSCI AC Americas Index gained 30% in the same period
* The S&P/TSX Composite is 1.7% below its 52-week high on Dec. 9, 2024 and 26.3% above its low on Dec. 13, 2023
* The S&P/TSX Composite is down 1% in the past 5 days and rose 2% in the past 30 days
* S&P/TSX Composite is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21 on a trailing basis and 17.5 times estimated earnings of its members for the coming year
* The index’s dividend yield is 2.7% on a trailing 12-month basis
* S&P/TSX Composite’s members have a total market capitalization of C$4.04t
* 30-day price volatility rose to 7.74% compared with 6.93% in the previous session and the average of 8.42% over the past month
================================================================
| Index Points | |
Sector Name | Move | % Change | Adv/Dec
================================================================
Materials | -76.0998| -2.5| 5/45
Financials | -60.7141| -0.7| 5/21
Energy | -54.9989| -1.3| 7/34
Information Technology | -24.7476| -0.9| 3/7
Industrials | -10.3062| -0.3| 10/17
Communication Services | -7.4031| -1.2| 1/4
Utilities | -7.3665| -0.8| 3/11
Consumer Discretionary | -2.9160| -0.3| 3/7
Consumer Staples | -2.1660| -0.2| 4/6
Real Estate | -0.1673| 0.0| 9/11
Health Care | -0.0810| -0.1| 1/3
================================================================
| | |Volume VS| YTD
|Index Points | | 20D AVG | Change
Top Contributors | Move | % Change | (%) | (%)
================================================================
Shopify | -18.1600| -1.3| -19.9| 59.1
Canadian Natural Resources | -15.5100| -2.3| -0.6| 3.7
RBC | -11.4100| -0.6| -1.3| 32.4
Bombardier | 1.9950| 3.2| -21.6| 96.8
Empire Co | 2.2560| 5.2| 152.6| 29.2
TD Bank | 4.0410| 0.4| 49.1| -11.1
US
By Cristin Flanagan
(Bloomberg) — A rally that shot the world’s biggest technology stocks to all-time highs lost steam Thursday as Wall Street held off on big bets ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week.
The Nasdaq 100 tumbled 0.7% while the S&P 500 fell 0.5% as traders weighed higher-than-expected jobless claims against too hot producer price data.
The equity benchmarks had made strong gains in the prior session after an in-line US inflation report almost fully baked in bets on a quarter-point interest rate cut at the Fed’s Dec. 18 meeting.
Data showed initial jobless claims rose to 242,000 for the week ended Dec. 7, ahead of economists’ estimates for 220,000.
November producer price readings released at the same time were mixed, with US wholesale inflation accelerating in November due to a surge in egg prices.
Treasuries failed to hold onto an advance after the reading as investors tried to gauge when the central bank will hit pause on interest-rate cuts.
“With high egg prices appearing to play a key role in the hotter-than-expected headline PPI, traders may be focusing more on the jump in jobless claims,” according to Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
While there’s been a steady stream of solid labor data, “the Fed is primed to be sensitive to any signs of a softening jobs picture.”
A third-consecutive rate cut from the US central bank is widely expected next week after the European Central Bank met expectations for a quarter-point of interest-rate easing, while the Swiss National Bank made a surprising 50 basis-point rate reduction.
A Bloomberg gauge of the dollar strengthened 0.3%, advancing for the fifth consecutive session as traders gauged the prospect of a Fed pause in early-2025 while US bonds fell for the fourth day in a row.
Treasuries have climbed immediately after readouts this week only to see those gains evaporate.
The yield on the 10-year rose to 4.33% Thursday.
Stan Shipley at Evercore ISI expects the benchmark note to end 2025 around 4.6%.
“The uncertainty of the US economic outlook has increased even though the recession odds have vanished,” Shipley wrote.
“This is because economic policy details are not clear.”
To Ella Hoxha, head of fixed income at Newton Investment Management, a “hawkish cut” from the Fed is possible next week.
“In that setup, the risk is still that you price the Fed to be a bit more cautious rather than more dovish.”
Despite Thursday’s pause in the stock’s markets relentless rally, Fundstrat’s Mark Newton sees more room for stock benchmarks to set new highs into year end.
“It’s a known fact that the PPI doesn’t really affect core PCE, which is the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation,” said the firm’s head of technical strategy.
With only a handful of companies — including Nvidia Corp. and Apple Inc. — responsible for the bulk of the the S&P 500’s 27% year-to-date run some on Wall Street are growing increasingly concerned more stocks aren’t participating in the rally.
“Shorter-term breadth gauges have waned sharply, but this doesn’t have to bring about a correction,” Newton wrote to clients.
Small-caps, transports and the Dow Jones Industrial Average could push back to new highs, he said.
The S&P 500 gauge is now headed for its ninth consecutive day where the number of constituents falling outnumbers those rising.
That’s the longest such streak since Bloomberg started collecting the data in 2004.
In Europe, the euro weakened after the ECB cut.
Earlier in the week, Canada lowered its policy rates by a half point, while Australia hinted it’s moving toward easing and China vowed to deliver rate cuts.
Japan, meanwhile, signaled it’s in no hurry to hike rates.
In commodities, WTI crude contracts pared losses after the International Energy Agency warned of a supply glut in 2025.
Gold tumbled as much as 1.6%, the biggest intraday drop in more than two weeks.

Corporate Highlights:
* Riot Platforms Inc.’s stock jumped after a report that activist investor Starboard Value had built up a significant stake in the Bitcoin miner.
* Adobe Inc. was under pressure after giving a disappointing annual sales outlook, underscoring anxieties that the creative software company may lose business to emerging artificial intelligence-based startups.
* Warner Bros Discoverny Inc. is changing its corporate structure and creating separate divisions for its cable and streaming businesses.
* ServiceTitan Inc. shares opened 42% above their initial public offering price after the residential and commercial repair software company raised $624.8 million.
* Apple Inc.’s ambitious plan to create in-house components for its devices will include switching to a homegrown chip for Bluetooth and Wi-Fi connections starting next year, a move that will replace some parts currently provided by Broadcom Inc.

Key events this week:
* Eurozone industrial production, Friday

Some of the main moves in markets:
Stocks
* The S&P 500 fell 0.5% as of 4:01 p.m. New York time
* The Nasdaq 100 fell 0.7%
* The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5%
* The MSCI World Index fell 0.5%
Currencies
* The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%
* The euro fell 0.3% to $1.0466
* The British pound fell 0.7% to $1.2667
* The Japanese yen fell 0.1% to 152.67 per dollar
Cryptocurrencies
* Bitcoin fell 1.5% to $100,098.25
* Ether rose 1.4% to $3,886.63
Bonds
* The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced six basis points to 4.33%
* Germany’s 10-year yield advanced eight basis points to 2.20%
* Britain’s 10-year yield advanced five basis points to 4.36%
Commodities
* West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.2% to $70.16 a barrel
* Spot gold fell 1.4% to $2,680.15 an ounce

This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.
–With assistance from Geoffrey Morgan, John Viljoen, Robert Brand, Elizabeth Stanton, Edward Bolingbroke and Sujata Rao.

Have a lovely evening everyone.

Be magnificent!

As ever,

Carolann
To be trusted is a greater compliment than being loved. –George MacDonald, 1824-1905.

Carolann Steinhoff, B.Sc., CFP®, CIM, CIWM
Senior Investment Advisor

Queensbury Securities Inc.,
St. Andrew’s Square,
Suite 340A, 730 View St.,
Victoria, B.C. V8W 3Y7

Tel: 778.430.5808
(C): 250.881.0801 (Text Only)
Toll Free: 1.877.430.5895
Fax: 778.430.5828
www.carolannsteinhoff.com